Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of deposit migration from traditional banks to non-bank financial institutions, highlighting the impact of market conditions and policy measures on this trend [1][10]. Group 1: Deposit Migration - In August, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, while the M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8% from 3.2% in July, indicating a shift in deposit behavior [1][10]. - The prediction for excess household savings from 2020 to July 2025 has been revised down to 3.57 trillion yuan from a previous estimate of 4.25 trillion yuan, driven by declining deposit attractiveness and active capital market policies [1][10]. - The current stage of deposit migration is still in its early phase, with the potential for accelerated migration raising concerns about market overheating risks [1]. Group 2: Credit and Loan Data - In August, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, with household loans showing a significant decline [2][3]. - Household loans in August totaled 303 billion yuan, down 1.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreasing [2][3]. - Corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan in August, but this was also a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion yuan, indicating a weak demand for loans amid economic uncertainties [3][4]. Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, with the largest positive contribution coming from undiscounted bank acceptance bills [6][8]. - Government bonds increased by 1.37 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in local government bond issuance [9]. - The overall financing environment is expected to face pressure in the fourth quarter if no new fiscal policies are implemented [9]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank emphasizes balancing financial stability with economic support, suggesting that a moderate easing of monetary policy is likely to continue [12]. - Expectations for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of the fourth quarter are noted, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [12].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has added an expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October 2025, predicting three opportunities for easing this year [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement three rate cuts this year [1] - The addition of the October 2025 rate cut expectation reflects a shift in monetary policy outlook [1]

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market showed a positive trend, with rebar futures opening at 3092.00 yuan/ton and fluctuating throughout the day, reaching a high of 3137.00 yuan and a low of 3075.00 yuan, resulting in a decline of 1.13% [1] - Rebar market is experiencing a downward trend with weak performance, as indicated by the accumulation of total inventory despite a rebound in high furnace iron water and iron ore port inventory [1] - Various institutions have noted that real estate sales, construction starts, and completion data are poor, while steel exports remain resilient, leading to expectations of reduced crude steel production [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, with a significant probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance monetary policy space in China [2] - Steel demand has shown signs of weak recovery since September, but steel mills are operating at the brink of profitability, indicating potential for price rebound if production is controlled [2] - The "Golden September" demand is not meeting expectations, suggesting that steel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term [2]

最后咱们快速过几个焦点个股，大家也能感受下市场的热度：网易昨天盘中刚创了历史新高，它家《命运》手游在美区iOS下载榜霸榜好几天了，盘前还 涨了1%；阿里刚上的"高德扫街榜"，一天就有4000万用户，直接成了国内最大的美食榜；蔚来又拿到10亿美元融资，小鹏的飞行器在阿联酋拿到了飞行 证，咱们国内的科技和车企也在悄悄发力。 作为干了20年财经记者、又蹲守中长线投资的老炮，帮主得跟大家掰扯掰扯，这波美股涨得这么猛，到底是跟风炒情绪，还是有真东西在支撑？核心就 一个事儿：市场现在几乎认定，美联储下周三开会，十有八九要降息了。 说到底，今天美股这波新高，本质是市场提前给降息"打了预防针"。但大家别光盯着眼前的涨幅，中长线看，下周美联储到底降多少、会后声明怎么说， 才是真正的关键。毕竟咱们做投资不是赌短期涨跌，得跟着政策和经济趋势走。跟着帮主，咱们慢慢把这波行情的来龙去脉摸清楚，不慌不忙做判断。 更有意思的是就业端，昨天每周失业金申请人数飙到26.3万，创了快三年新高，比预期多了快3万。加上前几天PPI还意外降了0.1%，这一串数据摆在一 起，等于告诉美联储：经济增速在放缓，就业也有点松劲，是时候松松货币政策了。所以现在 ...

此前，受关税政策不确定性影响，加拿大央行在最近两次会议上均维持利率不变。然而，Pfister强调， 在连续两个月就业数据大幅低于预期之后——8月份减少约65,500个岗位，7月份减少40,800个岗位，而 经济学家此前预期为增加10,000个——央行于下周降息的概率已显著提高。疲软的就业表现可能促使货 币政策转向宽松，从而对加元构成压力。 美元兑加元延续反弹趋势，目前交投在1.3855附近：1.3900为近期强阻力，若突破可能打开进一步上行 空间，目标指向1.3950。下方1.3800为近期重要支撑，若跌破可能下探1.3740一线。技术指标上，RSI保 持在中性偏强区域，显示多头力量仍有优势，但短期内可能面临高位震荡整理。 周四（9月11日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3869，涨幅0.09%，开盘价为1.3859。德国商业银行 分析师Michael Pfister在最新报告中指出，由于近期劳动力市场数据持续疲软，加拿大央行可能在9月17 日的议息会议上决定进一步降息，此举可能令加元承压。 ...

回顾上周市场动态，美国非农就业数据表现不及预期，凸显劳动力市场或已进入降温通道。与此同时， 美国劳工部下调了截至今年 3 月的就业增长预估，这一调整意味着在特朗普政府启动加征关税政策之 前，美国就业市场的扩张步伐就已有所放缓。上述信号进一步强化了市场对美联储政策宽松的预期。 在美联储政策博弈层面，近期市场关注点聚焦于央行独立性问题。美联储理事库克此前面临被特朗普罢 免的风险，但相关举措已被法院阻止，美国司法部随即提起上诉，这表明白宫在干预美联储决策的法律 较量中暂遇挫折。此外，米兰出任美联储理事的提名已获得参议院相关委员会通过，种种迹象显示，白 宫与美联储围绕央行独立性的博弈仍在持续，这一过程或对货币政策走向产生潜在影响。 通胀数据方面，美国 8 月生产者物价指数（PPI）环比下降 0.1%，为近四个月来首次出现负增长，同比 增幅 2.6% 也低于市场预期。数据公布后，特朗普再次公开呼吁美联储实施大幅降息。从芝商所 FedWatch 工具的监测数据来看，当前市场认为美联储在 9 月 16-17 日的货币政策会议上降息 25 个基点 的概率已高达 90%，部分投资者甚至预期可能出现更大幅度的降息。 当前市场目光 ...

固收- 宽松预期再升温？20250909 摘要 尽管美联储降息可能为中国央行提供宽松空间，但 2025 年外部均衡压 力较小，中国央行是否跟随降息将更多取决于国内稳增长和防风险的需 求，中美货币政策相关性可能减弱。 市场对央行重启国债买卖存在预期，但目前通过买断式回购和 MLF 等工 具已能满足流动性投放需求，且收益率曲线形态变化不大，重启国债买 入的迫切性和必要性相对较低。 在市场平稳且收益曲线变化不大的情况下，央行没有必要改变目前的利 率水平，但若权益市场走强导致资金分流或银行负债端压力上升，央行 可能重启买债以稳定市场。 2025 年二季度后，中国经济内需偏弱，融资需求下滑，有必要通过总 量层面的进一步加码来稳增长，若未来宽松政策兑现，将对市场形成阶 段性的行情驱动。 当前股市上涨动力有所缓和，权益牛市尚未显著影响债市情绪，只要银 行负债端保持稳定，在宽松预期支撑下，债市大幅调整的可能性较小。 Q&A 近期市场对于宽松预期再度升温，您能否详细分析一下海外降息预期对国内货 币政策的影响？ 从历史来看，中美货币政策周期存在一定的同步性。2019 年和 2024 年的两 轮降息周期中，美联储降息后，中国央行也 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant deterioration of the US labor market, as indicated by key employment data, has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's further loose monetary policy. Even if the US CPI and PPI data in August are resilient, it is difficult to affect the Fed's interest - rate cut operation in September [2]. - During the process of the Fed's monetary policy turning loose, silver prices will have a stronger upward drive compared to gold. The current external gold - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in the September FOMC meeting, and there is a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in the October meeting. The Fed may conduct more than three interest - rate cuts in the remaining FOMC meetings this year, exceeding market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - on - dips strategy for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward opportunities of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 801 - 840 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9526 - 11000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.01% to 822.78 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 9770.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.56% to 3633.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.57% to 41.32 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.1%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.88 [2]. - The closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories of various gold and silver products such as COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, COMEX silver, LBMA silver, and SHFE silver, as well as the changes compared with the previous trading day and their historical quantiles, are presented in detail [4][6]. Market Outlook - The US labor market has shown clear signs of deterioration. The non - farm payrolls data in August was significantly lower than expected, with multiple industries experiencing a decline in employment. This situation is in line with the statements of Powell and other Fed officials, indicating that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September [2]. - With the Fed's monetary policy becoming more accommodative, silver is expected to outperform gold. The market has priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut actions, and the Fed may cut interest rates more times than expected in the remaining meetings of this year [3]. Charts and Data Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the relationship between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, open interests, and the near - far month structure of gold and silver futures contracts, as well as the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [8][11][22][54].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm employment increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][11][17]. Economic Data - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly to 48.7 in August from 48 in July, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [10]. - The Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%, aligning with market expectations [10]. - U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, a ten-month low, and the trade deficit surged by 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July [10]. - The ADP employment report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below the expected 65,000 [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that the Fed should begin cutting rates this month and continue to do so in the coming months, depending on future economic data [3][6][17]. - Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September have intensified following the weak employment data, although there are concerns about the potential for a "recession trade" if economic slowdown expectations become too pronounced [4][18]. Market Reactions - U.S. equities, silver, and copper experienced volatility, reflecting uncertainty between easing expectations and economic slowdown narratives [5][19]. - Gold prices rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened, indicating clearer expectations regarding monetary policy direction [5][19]. International Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved, and necessary measures will continue to ensure price stability [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that further rate hikes may be appropriate given the improving economic and price conditions [7]. Trade and Policy Developments - The U.S. and Japan are finalizing a trade agreement that includes measures to alleviate tariff burdens, with Japan committing to increase U.S. rice imports by 75% [15][16]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have risen due to President Trump's attempts to influence its leadership [6][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of political pressure on the Federal Reserve's decision-making, particularly in the context of potential changes in leadership and monetary policy under President Trump. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump has indicated three potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chairmanship: Hassett, Waller, and Walsh, all of whom have pro-business and accommodative monetary policy stances [3][4] - Current Fed Chair Powell's term lasts until 2026, but Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with him since 2018, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic when he pressured for aggressive rate cuts [4][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Implications - The U.S. is facing high interest rates, with projected interest costs exceeding $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for about 13% of the federal budget [6] - Market expectations indicate that investors anticipate at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's ability to resist political pressure [6] - Historical precedents show that political interference in Fed decisions can lead to long-term economic issues, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [8] Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The article raises concerns about the potential loss of the Fed's independence if it becomes a tool of the White House, which could undermine its credibility and the integrity of its monetary policy [8][12] - The current economic environment, with core inflation around 3%, suggests that hasty rate cuts could reignite inflation, negatively impacting the public [10][12]