Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data shows a slowdown in job growth with 50,000 new jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 60,000, indicating a continued deceleration in hiring [1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, which is better than market expectations, alleviating some concerns about a rapid weakening of the labor market [1] - Average hourly wage growth met expectations, not causing new disturbances to inflation outlook, characterizing the employment report as "moderate deceleration rather than significant imbalance" [1] Group 2 - Despite some economic indicators showing resilience, the employment data did not alter the market's core pricing for the policy direction for the year, with the rate market still anticipating about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Gold continues to attract funds as a hedge against policy uncertainty, with prices breaking through the $4,500 mark and reaching a high of $4,517, approaching historical highs [2] - The U.S. dollar index briefly weakened after the data release but stabilized around 99.16, with the limited fluctuation in U.S. Treasury yields providing a relatively favorable macro environment for gold [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors are also providing marginal support for gold, with recent comments from Trump regarding Greenland raising concerns about long-term uncertainties, indirectly strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the non-farm data did not shake the market's core expectations for a loose monetary path this year, with gold continuing to be supported by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - The market will focus on upcoming U.S. inflation, retail sales, and Federal Reserve officials' statements, as the continuity of these data performances will be crucial for determining whether gold can further break into higher price ranges [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The TL2603 is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with an intraday weakening trend, overall in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to strong macro - data resilience and bond supply pressure, bond yields have risen and bond futures prices have fallen. In the long run, due to insufficient domestic demand, there is room for policy rate cuts, which will support bond futures prices. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly - trending, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly - trending, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly - trending/weakly - trending only apply to intraday views [1][3][4]. - **TL2603**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weakly - trending. The view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being a low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weakly - trending; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, strong macro - data resilience reduces the urgency of monetary easing, and the supply pressure of bond issuance has led to a significant rise in bond yields and a decline in bond futures prices since the end of December. In the long run, the problem of insufficient domestic demand requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment, so there is still room for policy rate cuts, and bond futures prices have support. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5].

Group 1 - The New York Mellon Bank economists suggest that political intervention may lead the Federal Reserve towards a more accommodative monetary policy, increasing long-term depreciation pressure on the US dollar due to larger policy easing, reduced safe-haven appeal, and narrowing growth advantages [1] - MKS PAMP analysts indicate that the market is weighing geopolitical risks from US interventions in Venezuela and Greenland while closely monitoring US macroeconomic signals, leading to cautious investor sentiment ahead of key non-farm payroll data [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that bonds may become a drag on diversified asset portfolios in the first half of 2024, as they struggle to provide significant cushioning during stock market downturns, prompting the development of alternative diversification tools and hedging strategies [1] Group 2 - Horvath's research shows that German SMEs are expected to allocate 0.35% of their revenue to AI spending in 2025, which is 30% lower than the overall corporate average of 0.5%, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and cost optimization needs [2] - DBS Bank forecasts that the Bank of Thailand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the first half of the year to support economic growth and improve the credit environment, as CPI has remained below target for ten consecutive months [2] - Macquarie predicts that global demand for AI infrastructure will continue to exceed supply through 2026, driving a semiconductor upcycle that will last until 2027, with storage chips benefiting the most from supply shortages and price fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Citigroup economists note that the Bank of Thailand is unlikely to cut rates in February 2026 due to improving economic activity and a narrowing decline in consumer prices, providing policymakers with room to pause easing measures [3] - Analysts indicate that the recent strengthening of the British pound is driven by improved risk sentiment and easing fiscal concerns, but the current valuation may be "overextended" without fundamental economic support, potentially leading to renewed monetary easing by the Bank of England [3]

Core Viewpoint - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially digested, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations. However, with upward policy impulses, the economy and stock market are expected to experience a "good start," which may continue to pressure bond market sentiment. Positive factors should not be overlooked, as the government bond supply's duration does not strongly explain interest rate trends, and besides the 50 billion yuan bond purchase signal, the central bank has both the willingness and ability to support liquidity. The overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on allocation while patiently waiting for trading opportunities [4]. Group 1: Diminishing Disturbances in the Bond Market - Since the beginning of the year, the domestic bond market has remained relatively calm compared to the volatility in other asset classes like stocks and commodities. This stability is primarily due to the fading of three major disturbances: the potential redemption pressure from new public fund sales regulations, fluctuations in year-end funding, and the impact of ultra-long bond supply. The first two factors have materialized with actual negative effects being lower than expected, while the recent rise in 30-year government bond yields has adequately responded to the ultra-long bond supply shock [5]. Group 2: Key Focus Points for Bond Market Breakthrough - How substantial is the economic "good start"? From a policy perspective, fiscal policy is taking the lead, with funding and project arrangements secured. Leading indicators show that the manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, and seasonal characteristics indicate a higher month-on-month growth rate for M1 in January due to the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival [6] - Can expectations for monetary policy easing be revised upward? Given the "good start" in the economy and stock market, total monetary policy easing may be further delayed, but current market expectations for rate cuts are relatively rational. The central bank has maintained a supportive stance regarding narrow liquidity [6] - What is the rhythm of ultra-long government bond supply? Historically, changes in issuance duration have shown weak explanatory power for the movements of 10-year and 30-year government bond yields. Additionally, with the total increase in government bonds being controllable, the impact of supply appears to be more like several small pulses [6] - How strong is the willingness of allocation plates to absorb? The central bank's monetary policy undoubtedly supports government bond supply, and the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive. There is a positive outlook on whether institutions will increase their allocation of ultra-long bonds [6] - Will the stock-bond "seesaw" effect persist? In terms of cost-effectiveness, the current risk premium in the stock market has gradually fallen to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift from significant undervaluation towards median regression. However, the static cost-effectiveness still favors stocks over bonds. Considering the economic and risk preference factors in the first quarter of 2026, the strong stock and weak bond pattern may be difficult to reverse [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been experiencing a significant rebound since mid-December 2025, driven primarily by uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's nickel mining policies, with a notable acceleration in price increases in 2026 [1] Group 1: Nickel Price Dynamics - The main catalyst for the recent rise in nickel prices is the uncertainty regarding Indonesia's mining policies, which has tightened supply and raised cost expectations in the industry [1] - Analysts indicate that Indonesia's nickel production target for 2026 is set at approximately 250 million tons, a 34% decrease from the 379 million tons quota in 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [1][2] - The market sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is improving, with nickel being viewed as a relatively undervalued metal, leading to strong potential for price recovery [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - If Indonesia's nickel mining approval quota drops to 250 million tons, combined with imports from the Philippines and a projected consumption of 340 to 350 million tons, there will be a significant supply gap in local smelting materials [2] - Despite the tightening supply, the overall nickel market remains weak, with an expected surplus of approximately 190,900 tons in 2026, similar to 2025 levels, indicating limited demand growth [2] - Current high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks exceeding 250,000 tons, suggest that the nickel market is still in a state of oversupply, despite some positive expectations [2] Group 3: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - A moderately loose monetary policy is contributing to the upward pressure on non-ferrous metal prices, including nickel, with increased market liquidity expected to amplify price volatility [3] - The short-term market trajectory will depend on the interplay between Indonesia's mining policies and the existing oversupply and high inventory levels, while long-term focus should be on the implementation of Indonesia's mining approval policies [3]

板块方面，根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，电子化学品、煤炭行业、半导体等板块当天分别上涨 6.86%、3.86%、2.29%，领涨A股所有行业板块。 (责任编辑：王擎宇) 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一鸣表示，中国央行的上述安排意味着货币政策宽松周期仍将持续，对资本市 场而言，直接带来多重利好：一是降低市场整体资金成本，提升股票等风险资产的估值吸引力；二是释 放政策支持经济的明确信号，提升市场风险偏好；三是引导银行体系流动性向资本市场传导，为A股带 来增量资金供给。 中国A股7日(周三)继续走高，主要股指悉数上涨，实现开年"三连涨"。其中，上证指数收盘价再创十年 新高。 截至当天收盘，上证指数报4085点，涨幅为0.05%；深证成指报14030点，涨幅为0.06%；创业板指报 3329点，涨0.31%。沪深两市成交总额约28542亿元(人民币，下同)，较上一个交易日放量约476亿元。 消息面上，近日召开的2026年中国人民银行工作会议提出，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕；建立在特定情景 下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好两 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract increased in volume and rose. The central bank released a loose monetary policy to boost market confidence, and the strong rise of furnace materials led to the upward movement of finished products. The overall view is oscillating to the upside, with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan; the position volume was 1,741,383 lots, up 178,435 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -879 lots, up 3,073 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was -48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 77,844 tons, down 600 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,446 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 173 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was -20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 823 yuan/wet ton, up 21 yuan; the first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 158.6194 million tons, up 3.538 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 486,000 tons, down 13,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4383 million tons, up 14,300 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2661 million tons, up 86,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.96%, up 0.66%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.28%, up 0.32% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8439 million tons, up 27,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 40.42%, up 0.59%. The mill inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.4006 million tons, up 5,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 2.08%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 14.34 million tons, up 590,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -2.60%, down 0.90; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -15.90%, down 1.20; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was -1.10%, down 1.00. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, the planned volume of rebar shipped south from Northeast China was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons; the planned volume of wire rod shipped south was 246,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. In December, 26 national construction steel production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 16 less than the previous month, and the impact on production increased month - on - month, with the estimated impact on construction steel production being 2.5921 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.74% [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output of rebar, mill inventory, and social inventory on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially alleviated, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations[1] - The bond market remains relatively calm compared to other asset classes, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.84%[10] - The recent rise in the 30-year government bond yield has been a moderate response to the supply impact of long-term bonds[12] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Economic performance in early 2026 is expected to be supported by a fiscal policy injection of 1 trillion yuan, with 625 billion yuan in special bonds already allocated[17] - Market expectations for monetary policy easing may be delayed, but the current expectations for rate cuts are considered rational[22] - The supply of long-term government bonds is manageable, with a planned issuance of approximately 1.54 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2026[24] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The willingness of institutional investors to increase their allocation to long-term bonds is viewed positively, with net purchases of long-term local bonds reaching 1.90 trillion yuan in 2025[28] - The current risk premium in the stock market has decreased to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift towards median valuation[29] - The bond market's overall outlook is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on asset allocation while waiting for trading opportunities[33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - policies. Different industries show different trends, with some expected to be strong in the short - term, some in a state of shock, and others facing downward pressure [2][3][4] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical events, and investors need to pay attention to the follow - up impact of these events on different industries [2][13][15] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the nickel price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000, with attention to the breakthrough around 150,000 [2][40] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern. The 05 contract is recommended to buy at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][59] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][79] - **Silver**: The tight inventory boosts the price. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy [6][17] Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market is on the rise, and the four major stock index futures contracts are all rising. It is recommended to hold a bullish spread portfolio and build a covered call portfolio on dips [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and tend to steepen the curve [10][11][12] Precious Metals - The geopolitical risks and supply tightness drive the prices of precious metals to rise. Gold is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300. Silver is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term and are recommended to be lightly long on dips [13][15][17] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a new high. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [18][21][22] - **Alumina**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2,700 - 3,000 [22][24] - **Aluminum**: The price hits a new high. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 23,800 - 24,800. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and long positions can be established on dips [24][26][27] - **Zinc**: The price center moves up. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference support at 23,300 - 23,400. Long positions can be held, and cross - market reverse arbitrage can be continued [30][33] - **Tin**: Affected by news and sentiment, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [34][38] - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000 [2][38][40] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by raw material tightening expectations, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [41][44] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is rising strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there are risks of liquidity and regulation. It is recommended to wait and see and convert long positions to call options appropriately [45][49][50] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rises and then falls. It is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [50][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [52][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The night - session raw materials drive the steel price to rise. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the range, with a reference range of 3,000 - 3,200 for rebar and 3,150 - 3,350 for hot - rolled coils [55][56] - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][58][59] - **Coking Coal**: The price is weak in the spot market. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [60][63] - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts is implemented. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [64][68] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the policy, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 5,500 - 6,000 [69][71] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is supported by manganese ore. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 6,000 [72][74] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The global loose pattern and South American bumper harvest expectations suppress the market. The domestic spot is loose. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [75][76][77] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][78][79] - **Corn**: There is a game between short - selling and policy support. The price is expected to fluctuate [80][81] - **Sugar**: The international market is affected by Brazil and India. The domestic market is affected by the peak season of sugar production. It is expected to be in a low - level shock [83][84] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is expected to be in a shock. The domestic cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [85] - **Egg**: The supply pressure is relieved. The price is expected to be in a low - level shock [88] - **Oil**: The palm oil may face downward pressure. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to have limited upside [89][90][91] - **Jujube**: The price is stable, but the trading volume is poor. It is necessary to pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking and the planting area in 2026 [92] - **Apple**: The good - quality fruit is scarce, driving the price up. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual de - stocking progress [93][94] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [95][96] - **PTA**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [97][98] - **Short - fiber**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to follow the raw materials to fluctuate [99][100] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and the processing fee has limited upside space [101][102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in January [103][104] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is stable, and the demand is slightly improved. The price is under pressure due to high inventory [106] - **Styrene**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The price rebound space is limited [107][108] - **LLDPE**: The market is covering short positions. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term [109] - **PP**: The supply and demand are weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit expansion [110] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounds, and the spot price is stable. The market is expected to be stable and weak [111][113] - **PVC**: The price rises, but the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is expected to decline in a shock [114] - **Urea**: The Indian tender result boosts the market. It is expected to be strong in a shock in the short - term [115] - **Soda Ash**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118][119] - **Glass**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the sales and production sustainability. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119] - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment drives the price up. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited. The BR contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short [121][123]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].