Company and Industry Updates - Apple (AAPL.US) will open its underlying artificial intelligence technology to developers, indicating a strategic move to enhance its AI capabilities and improve features like Siri [9] - Morgan Stanley has downgraded McDonald's (MCD.US) rating to hold, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's strategists indicate that prolonged high interest rates may negatively impact U.S. corporate borrowers as the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Impact of High Interest Rates - The expectation of a soft landing is leading to most defaults appearing as non-performing assets, with higher recovery rates [1] - However, the likelihood of a soft landing is decreasing due to inflation remaining above target, significant policy uncertainty, and rising sovereign term premiums [1] Group 2: Default Rate Projections - Deutsche Bank predicts that the default rate in speculative-grade credit could reach 5.5% around mid-next year, marking the highest level since 2012 for issuer-weighted speculative-grade default rates [1]

我们是中国的长期投资者。 摩根大通CEO戴蒙：必须为滞胀做好准备。 对持续的软着陆持怀疑态度。 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to stabilize and promote long-term economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce urges the U.S. to correct its restrictive measures on Chinese chips, asserting that such actions hinder sustainable cooperation between enterprises [3] - The Ministry of Commerce reiterates that all parties involved in the sale of the port by CK Hutchison must not evade regulatory scrutiny, highlighting the importance of fair market competition [4] Group 2 - Bridgewater's latest holdings report reveals significant changes, including a substantial increase in positions in Alibaba and a new investment in JD.com, while reducing its stake in Nvidia [6] - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its policy framework to adapt to post-pandemic inflation dynamics, with potential adjustments expected to be announced in August or September [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on the use of raised funds by listed companies, emphasizing dedicated use for core business and supporting the real economy [8] Group 3 - Alibaba's latest financial report shows a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 7% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA rising by 36% [21][22] - Xiaomi announces the upcoming release of its self-developed SoC chip named "Xuanjie O1," which is expected to enhance mobile performance [20] - Wahaha responds to production issues due to capacity constraints, indicating adjustments in production and outsourcing to meet market demands [23][24]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.41%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% [1] - Most large tech stocks declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1%. However, Netflix rose over 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.37%, with notable declines in stocks like Alibaba and JD.com [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for the economy and the central bank [2] - Powell mentioned that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks post-pandemic [2] - The Fed's strategy reflects a willingness to tolerate higher inflation to promote job growth, marking a significant shift in its approach [2] Economic Indicators - Powell projected that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation for April would drop to 2.2%, although external factors like tariffs could lead to price increases [2] - Recent data showed a surprising decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, leading traders to slightly increase bets on two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [3] - The latest retail sales figures indicated almost no growth, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending, which adds pressure to the market [3] Tariff Impact - Analysts from JPMorgan noted that tariff policies could lead to a surge in U.S. goods prices in June and July, making the Fed more cautious about potential rate cuts [3] - The ongoing tariff impacts are contributing to uncertainty and volatility in the economy, with the possibility of a recession still present according to JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing the terminology of "labor market slack" to avoid interpreting low unemployment as a signal of inflation risk [2] - The Fed is adjusting its "average inflation target" framework to adapt to broader economic changes, indicating a willingness to accept higher inflation for stronger employment growth [2] - Powell anticipates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation will decrease to 2.2% in April, but tariffs may still drive prices up [3] Group 2 - The Fed is modifying its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlook post-pandemic, with a focus on the increased instability of inflation due to rising real interest rates [4] - The evaluation of the new policy framework is expected to be completed and announced in August or September, while current interest rate decision-making will remain unchanged in the short term [4] - Powell warns that increasing supply shocks will pose significant challenges for the economy and the central bank [4]

金十数据5月15日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔在周四讲话中没有谈及当前的货币政策或经济前景，尽管他确 实表示，他预计4月份个人消费支出价格通胀将降至2.2%——这是一个温和的数据，但仍可能没有反映 出即将到来的关税驱动的价格上涨。尽管如此，这仍然反映了在没有对经济造成重大损害的情况下，反 通胀的"历史上不寻常的结果"，在美联储当前的策略下，确实发生了"软着陆"。 鲍威尔未谈及政策前景，预计4月PCE降至2.2% ...

该银行在中美贸易会谈前进行的调查显示，基金经理净减持了38%的美国股票，这是两年来最高水平。 但由于投资者对股票的风险敞口很低，市场参与者警告称，持续的股市上涨将使看跌头寸蒙受巨额损 失。同时，在已经高企的水平上追涨可能会给交易员带来更多痛苦。 投资者对5月份全球经济增长的悲观情绪有所缓解。净59%的投资者预计全球经济增长将放缓，低于4月 份的82%。净1%的人认为可能出现衰退，较4月份的42%大幅下降。投资者目前的共识是软着陆，即通 胀下降，而经济不会明显放缓或陷入衰退。本月，61%的投资者预计会出现这种结果，高于4月份的 37%，对硬着陆的预期已从4月份的49%降至26%。 43%的投资者将贸易战列为最有可能引发系统性信贷危机的因素。第二个最有可能的来源是美国的影子 银行，占比25%。美国银行在调查的同时发布的一份新闻稿中说，中美经贸会谈成果"防止了经济衰退 或信贷事件"。这项调查是在周一宣布削减关税之前进行的。 对于美股，美国银行策略师表示，在美国和中国达成贸易休战引发股市上涨后，投资者可能被迫追涨， 因为他们在上月的反弹中大部分错失了机会。 美国股市因贸易战出现缓和迹象而持续反弹。标普500指数较其2 ...

美银调查显示，投资者对全球经济增长的悲观情绪有所缓解 金十数据5月13日讯，美国银行对全球基金经理的月度调查显示，投资者对5月份全球经济增长的悲观情 绪有所缓解。净59%的投资者预计全球经济增长将放缓，低于4月份的82%。净1%的人认为可能出现衰 退，较4月份的42%大幅下降。投资者目前的共识是软着陆，即通胀下降，而经济不会明显放缓或陷入 衰退。本月，61%的投资者预计会出现这种结果，高于4月份的37%。，对硬着陆的预期已从4月份的 49%降至26%。 ...

在对美国经济前景的展望上，鲍威尔指出，通胀略高于2%的目标，但"核心通胀状况良好"，就业市场 也接近充分就业，因此美联储目前"无需仓促行动"，政策工具也"准备充足"。不过他也警告，如果特朗 普政府宣布的大规模加征关税最终落地，可能会推高通胀、拖累经济增长，并导致失业上升。 在被问及经济当前面临的风险时，鲍威尔坦言，目前通胀与失业的上行风险"双双上升"，美联储需要在 两者之间进行权衡。他强调，美联储将密切关注两项关键变量(通胀与就业)，并在必要时作出政策调 整，"如果我们看到就业市场显著恶化，当然会采取支持行动。" 近期数据显示，美国4月失业率为4.2%，仍处于主流估算的"最大就业"范围之内。但与去年相比，美联 储已显现出更高的容忍度，允许就业市场一定程度上的放缓，以对抗持续偏高的通胀。 面对市场对降息的高度关注，鲍威尔表示，美联储当前采取"观望"策略，并不会因预期经济放缓而预先 调整利率。他指出，由于贸易政策、关税等变量仍存在极大不确定性，美联储"无法提前判断数据如何 演变"，因此将"静待更清晰的数据指引再决定政策走向"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，美联储在货币政策制定上将继 ...