罗素投资：预计非农新增10万个岗位 就业疲软但仍支持软着陆 金十数据8月1日讯，美国长债收益率在亚盘交易时段微升。接受《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预计美国 7月非农将新增10万个就业岗位，6月份为14.7万个。罗素投资公司投资策略师BeiChen Lin在一份报告中 表示："正如普遍预期的那样，劳动力市场略有疲软，仍符合我们的软着陆前景。"就业创造的广度将是 一个关键的观察点。近几个月来，新增就业岗位已开始更多地集中在医疗保健等人手不足的行业，就业 范围的扩大可能会在一定程度上为经济的弹性提供保证。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a quick reversal after initially rising, reflecting a cooling optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts in September [1][3] - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, details indicate a slowdown in consumer spending and private investment, suggesting economic fatigue under high interest rates [3][4] - The market reacted negatively to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which emphasized persistent inflation and a resilient job market, undermining expectations for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer companies showed stable performance but revealed structural contradictions due to high baseline pressures and weak consumption [4] - Starbucks reported better-than-expected earnings but saw a slight decline in stock price, indicating market concerns about future profit margins [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is around 65%, but this is slowly decreasing as inflation data and Fed attitudes diverge [4][5] Group 3 - The market's current expectation is for a "soft landing," but uncertainty around the pace of rate cuts is making investors cautious [5] - The upcoming earnings reports will be crucial in determining whether the U.S. stock market can maintain its recent upward trend [5] - If the market realizes that rate cuts are not guaranteed, volatility may increase again [5]

鲍威尔暗示他仍致力于维护年初看似已实现的"软着陆"，即通胀回落但未严重损害就业市场。然而，关 税推高部分商品价格后形成的逆风，可能使美联储偏离轨道。五年前新冠疫情爆发时，美联储实施超常 规刺激且撤出迟缓，导致了2022年通胀显现顽固性后的急速加息。 周三，这位美联储主席重申四年前的承诺：确保任何价格上涨不会持续。"但我们希望高效地实现目标 ——高效地，"他在记者会上表示。过早降息可能迫使美联储后续再度加息，"这很低效"，但等待过久 又可能对就业市场造成不必要伤害。 在第一种经济情境中，鲍威尔引以为豪的4.1%失业率正掩盖劳动力市场加速恶化的风险。"失业率数据 让你对就业市场真实状况产生误判，"复兴宏观研究经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔（Neil Dutta）指出。相比同 等失业率水平的经济体，当前实际想工作却退出劳动力市场的人数异常多，零薪资增长的劳动者比例畸 高，仅半数行业在新增岗位——这一指标处于历史低位。美联储理事沃勒两周前的演讲已警示此类担 忧。 利率制定有时更像艺术而非科学，尤其当经济持续背离预期时——美联储周三直面了这一现实。美国可 能正处在两种经济情境中的任意一种，而美联储官员或许还需数月才能辨明真相： ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant surge in performance, particularly among high-performing stocks, with LendingClub rising over 31% and Wingstop increasing by nearly 29% [1][3] - Major technology stocks also saw gains, with Nvidia up 1.8% and Broadcom rising over 1% [2] Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a preliminary GDP growth rate of 3.0% for Q2 2025, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and reversing a previous contraction of -0.5% in Q1 [5][7] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3% [7] Company Earnings - Wingstop's Q2 adjusted earnings per share surpassed market expectations, leading to a stock price increase [3] - LendingClub reported Q2 revenue and earnings per share that exceeded forecasts, with strong guidance for Q3 [3] - Teradyne, a semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer, saw its stock rise over 22% after reporting Q2 revenue of $651.8 million and adjusted earnings of $0.57 per share, both significantly above expectations [3] - VF Corporation, the parent company of Vans and The North Face, experienced a stock increase of over 24% following a Q1 revenue report of $1.8 billion, which also exceeded market expectations [3] - FuboTV's stock surged over 22% after announcing preliminary Q2 financial results indicating expected revenue and paid user growth above projections [3] Analyst Expectations - Analysts predict that Apple's Q3 2025 revenue will reach $90.7 billion, a 5.8% year-over-year increase, driven by improvements across all product lines [4] - Morgan Stanley views Microsoft's risk-reward profile as attractive, citing its leadership in AI and robust core business growth [4] - Amazon's Q2 revenue is expected to hit $162 billion, with earnings per share projected at $1.32, driven by growth in AWS and its retail and advertising segments [4] - Meta's anticipated Q2 revenue is $44.71 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net income expected at $19.92 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the RMB exchange rate amidst US interest rate cuts indicates a strategic financial collaboration rather than a reactionary approach [1][3][10] Group 1: US Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in June 2024, signaling a focus on stabilizing growth and market conditions [3][10] - The European Central Bank also cut rates by 25 basis points simultaneously, indicating a coordinated response to the US monetary policy [3][5] Group 2: China's Monetary Policy - China made slight adjustments to its policy interest rates around the same time as the US and Europe, aiming to stabilize market expectations and maintain the interest rate differential with the US [5][9] - The RMB exchange rate remained around 7.2 against the USD, reflecting a controlled depreciation that mitigated capital outflow risks [7][9] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - Following the US rate cuts, over $120 billion flowed into European high-grade bond markets, while Asian emerging markets attracted less than $25 billion, highlighting a shift in capital preferences [7][9] - The strategy employed by China was to intentionally lower its "attractiveness" to prevent large-scale capital volatility, thereby stabilizing the global financial system [9][13] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The approach taken by China is viewed as a "silent financial collaboration," which helped the US stabilize its market without causing significant disruptions in the global financial architecture [10][15] - By not aggressively adjusting the RMB exchange rate, China avoided exacerbating global financial instability, which could have led to larger systemic risks [13][15][17]

Core Insights - A significant shift in investor sentiment regarding economic recession concerns has been observed, with 59% of investors now believing a recession is unlikely [1] - The report indicates that this represents a major change from April, when only 42% of respondents felt a recession was unlikely [1] - Approximately 65% of investors anticipate a "soft landing" for the economy, characterized by a slowdown in inflation without a significant economic downturn [1] - Only 9% of investors expect a "hard landing," where inflation decreases alongside a slowdown or recession in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is recognized as the most suitable candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, balancing between hawkish and dovish stances while adhering to data-driven monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Waller's Qualifications and Market Perception - Waller has gained broad recognition in the market and policy circles for his leadership and economic judgment, making him a trusted figure who aligns with Trump's desire to lower the 10-year Treasury yield [1]. - His approach to monetary policy is characterized by a focus on data, avoiding extreme positions, which has led to a favorable perception among market participants [2][4]. - Waller's communication style, utilizing scenario analysis, enhances market understanding of the Fed's policy responses, further solidifying his reputation as a reliable policymaker [4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Predictions - Waller has demonstrated a keen ability to anticipate economic trends, such as recognizing the persistent nature of inflation in 2021, which many mainstream forecasters overlooked [2]. - He proposed that it is possible to control inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering massive unemployment, a theory that has proven to align closely with subsequent economic developments [2]. - In discussions about tariffs, Waller acknowledged their inflationary impact but suggested that the effects would be temporary, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts starting in July [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Value - Waller's previous appointment by Trump and his non-confrontational stance towards the administration make him a politically acceptable choice for the presidency of the Fed [4][5]. - His nomination could facilitate a smooth transition of leadership, allowing Powell to retire with confidence, as Waller's policies are seen as stable and professional [6]. - The potential for Waller to maintain market trust and avoid significant increases in long-term interest rates aligns with Trump's economic agenda, emphasizing low rates and low inflation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, does not believe there is inconsistency in the bank's interest rate decisions [1] - The RBA is lowering interest rates in a "reasonable and prudent manner" [1] - The RBA is performing "very well" in achieving a soft landing for the economy [1] Summary by Categories - **Interest Rate Decisions** - The RBA Chairman asserts that there is no perception of wavering in the bank's approach to interest rate decisions [1] - The current strategy involves a careful reduction of interest rates [1] - **Economic Outlook** - The RBA is confident in its ability to manage a soft landing for the economy, indicating effective monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]