1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market remained in high - level oscillation this week, with price - rising factors and future expectations dominating market hotspots. The index followed technical indicators and rebounded after filling two upward gaps in the Shanghai Composite Index in late October. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating [4]. - The "V - shaped reversal" of the U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits [4]. - In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline, the discount reached the weekly maximum on Wednesday when the market rebounded, and then began to converge on Thursday with a significant decline in positions, indicating signs of short - position reduction [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Weekly Key News - On October 31, Chairman Wu Qing proposed to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [3]. - Affected by the AI bubble, concerns about the U.S. government shutdown, and the liquidity crisis, U.S. stocks fell across the board this week, with the Nasdaq posting its largest single - week decline since early April [3]. - In October 2025, China's CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, PPI fell 2.1% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [3]. - In October, China's export growth in U.S. dollar terms was - 1.1% (previous value 8.3%), and import growth was 1.0% (previous value 7.4%) [3]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - In the third quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 1.3948 trillion yuan, and the capital and financial account (including the net error and omission in the current quarter) had a deficit of 1.3948 trillion yuan, with inbound direct investment remaining in net inflow [3]. - On November 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Measures for the Administration of the Securities Settlement Risk Fund", which will come into effect on December 8, 2025, with differential adjustments to the payment ratio of the risk fund [3]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Logic: The market was in high - level oscillation this week. Rising prices of commodities such as phosphate fertilizer and lithium hexafluorophosphate boosted related sectors. Investment expectations in AI, Hainan Free Trade, and Haixi Construction became market hotspots, and bank stocks rose against the trend during market adjustments [4]. - Outlook: The "V - shaped reversal" of U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating. In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline and then converged with a decline in positions, indicating short - position reduction [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The market is expected to rise while oscillating. Buy on dips around the Shanghai Composite Index of 3980 points and avoid chasing high prices [5]. - Arbitrage: Conduct spot - futures arbitrage by going long on IM/IC 2512 and short on ETFs [5]. - Options: Buy bull spreads on dips [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 A - share Index Performance - The performance data of A - share indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 from November 3 to November 7, 2025 are presented [9]. 3.2.2 A - share Trading Volume - The trading volume data of the A - share market and the trading volume proportion of major indices from May 6, 2025, to October 30, 2025, are shown [12][13]. 3.2.3 A - share Rise and Fall - The rise - fall situation and the proportion of stocks hitting the daily limit or daily low limit of the A - share market from August 1, 2025, to November 7, 2025, are presented [15]. 3.2.4 A - share Margin Trading - The margin balance, the ratio of margin balance to A - share floating market value, margin net buying, and the ratio of margin buying to A - share trading volume are presented [19][20]. 3.2.5 A - share Industry Performance - The weekly rise - fall rates and industry popularity of A - share industries are shown [23]. 3.2.6 A - share Industry Fund Flow - The weekly net inflow of funds and margin net buying in A - share industries are presented [26]. 3.2.7 A - share Market Financing - The IPO financing and private placement financing data of the A - share market are presented [28][29]. 3.2.8 A - share Index Valuation - The PE - TTM, PB - MRQ, and their quantiles, medians, danger values, and opportunity values of various A - share indices are presented [31]. 3.2.9 Stock Index Futures Basis Change - The basis change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 7, 2025, are presented [33]. 3.2.10 Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Change - The trading volume and open interest change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 6, 2025, are presented [36]. 3.2.11 Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The trading volume comparison data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures and their corresponding spot indices are presented [38]. 3.2.12 Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of IF, IC, IM, and IH stock index futures are presented [41].

Group 1: Overall Market Strategy - The report suggests that Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform the market, focusing on AI applications and the PPI-CPI rotation rhythm [1][2] - It anticipates a significant inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, with a net inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB expected in 2025, marking a historical record [2] - The target price range for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 has been raised to 29,000-32,000 points based on weighted risk premiums [2] Group 2: Sector Focus - AI applications are highlighted as a key area for investment in 2026, with potential impacts across various sectors including internet/software, media, hardware, semiconductors, automotive, and retail [2] - The PPI chain is expected to benefit midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials industries due to greater improvement in PPI compared to CPI in the first half of 2026 [2] - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are projected to benefit from market prosperity, with sustained performance expected [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is expected to experience a soft landing, with a potential shallow recession being supported by rapid interest rate cuts [1][2] - It notes that the unemployment rate is a critical indicator, with a threshold set at 4.5% to monitor potential disruptions [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is positioned for a slow and steady growth trajectory, with significant opportunities in information technology and consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]

Group 1 - The leadership of Sequoia Capital has changed, with Roelof Botha stepping down as Senior Steward and being succeeded by partners Alfred Lin and Pat Grady as the new co-leaders [1][4][11] - During Botha's tenure, Sequoia returned over $50 billion to its investors, and he was instrumental in early investments in companies like YouTube and Instagram [4][25] - Botha's leadership was marked by concerns from some partners regarding his management style and missed investment opportunities in the AI sector, including OpenAI and Anysphere [7][8][27] Group 2 - Alfred Lin, who joined Sequoia in 2010, is known for leading significant investments in companies such as Airbnb and DoorDash, and he emphasizes the importance of long-term impact in investments [12][15] - Lin's investment philosophy focuses on companies with clear values and the ability to evolve over time, aiming for sustained growth [15][16] - Pat Grady, who has been with Sequoia since 2007, has a strong track record in B2B and cloud services, with successful investments in Snowflake and Zoom [18][20][21] Group 3 - Sequoia Capital manages assets totaling $56 billion and has invested in notable startups like OpenAI and SpaceX [25] - Recently, Sequoia announced the launch of two new funds, one focused on early-stage companies with a size of $750 million and another seed fund of $200 million [26] - The firm has faced turbulence in recent years, including failed investments and partner departures, but the leadership change may revitalize the company [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft has experienced a significant decline in stock price following its quarterly earnings report, with concerns about AI investments impacting the broader tech sector [1][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Since the end of October, Microsoft has not recorded a single positive trading day, with the stock price dropping over 8% in the past eight days, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding $300 billion [1][2][3]. - The stock has set a record for the longest consecutive decline in 14 years, marking the longest losing streak since November 2011 [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Results - Microsoft's quarterly earnings report showed a nearly 20% increase in revenue; however, the growth of Azure cloud services was not as impressive, and AI expenditures significantly exceeded expectations [3][4]. - The company reported capital expenditures of $34.9 billion for the quarter, with plans to further increase spending in the current fiscal quarter, raising market concerns [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is a growing cautious sentiment in the market regarding substantial investments in AI, which has led to continued pressure on large tech stocks, including Microsoft [5][7]. - In contrast to Microsoft, Apple has not adopted an aggressive strategy in AI, resulting in a slight increase in its stock price, highlighting divergent approaches within the tech sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - The cautious sentiment towards AI investments is putting pressure on large tech stocks, leading Microsoft to experience its longest losing streak in 14 years, with a significant market cap loss of over $300 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Microsoft Stock Performance - Microsoft's stock price fell by 0.06% on Friday, accumulating a decline of over 4% for the week, and more than 8% over the past eight days [1][2]. - The company's market capitalization has decreased by over $300 billion, marking its longest losing streak since November 2011 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - Since the quarterly earnings report at the end of October, Microsoft has not recorded a single positive trading day, despite a nearly 20% increase in revenue for the last quarter [3]. - Concerns are growing regarding Microsoft's significant capital expenditures, which reached $34.9 billion, and the expectation of further increases in spending for the current fiscal quarter [3]. Group 3: Broader Market Impact - The Nasdaq 100 index and the Tech Giants index both fell approximately 4% this week, marking the largest weekly percentage drop since April [4]. - In contrast, Apple has not adopted an aggressive strategy in AI, resulting in a slight increase in its stock price on Friday, although it ultimately followed the tech sector's downward trend [4].

Core Insights - China's total goods trade value for the first ten months of the year reached 37.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] - Exports amounted to 22.12 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.2%, while imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - In October alone, total goods trade saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports continuing to grow for five consecutive months at a rate of 1.4% [1] Trade Dynamics - Despite external volatility, China's exports have shown resilience, attributed to accelerated diversification of export markets, which has mitigated the impact of reduced exports to the U.S. [1] - Exports to ASEAN, as the largest trading partner, grew by 15.3%, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate by 9.1 percentage points [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for over 51% of total trade, with an export growth rate of 11.4% [2] Sector Performance - The growth in exports is supported by China's industrial transformation, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles [2] - Mechanical and electrical products have consistently represented over 60% of total exports for the past four months, with significant growth in integrated circuits (24.7%), automobiles (14.3%), and ships (26%) [2] - The continuous increase in imports over the last five months indicates a faster growth rate in import volumes, providing a vital export destination for many developing and developed countries [3]

Export Performance - In October 2025, China's export value decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since February and a slowdown of 9.4 percentage points compared to September[2][3] - Exports to the United States fell by 25.2%, contributing to a 3.8 percentage point decline in overall export growth[4] - The average year-on-year export growth for September and October combined is 3.5% when excluding the high base effect and working day adjustments[3] Import Trends - October 2025 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in imports, but the growth rate slowed by 6.4 percentage points from September[8] - Imports from the United States dropped by 22.8%, with the decline widening by 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[8] - Key imports such as crude oil and soybeans showed improved growth rates, with crude oil imports down by only 0.3% and soybean imports up by 11.4%[9] Market Dynamics - The high base effect from last year, combined with fewer working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, significantly impacted October's export figures[3][4] - Despite external pressures, China's export resilience is attributed to diversification efforts and strong growth in sectors like AI, chips, and automobiles, with chip exports rising by 26.9% and automobile exports by 34.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariffs from the U.S. are expected to continue affecting China's exports, particularly to the EU, ASEAN, and Belt and Road economies, which are projected to see declining growth rates[6] Future Outlook - November's export growth is anticipated to rebound to around 2.0%, but the overall export momentum is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter compared to the 6.1% growth in the first three quarters[6] - The Chinese government is likely to implement policies to support export enterprises, including enhancing domestic sales channels and providing financial support to struggling companies[7] - The impact of domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand is expected to influence import growth positively in the coming months[10]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong rebound yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% to reclaim the 4000-point level. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.84% [1]. Aluminum Supply and Demand - CITIC Securities indicated that the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain balanced over the next three years, contingent on China's full production and the timely release of new overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity. Any supply disruptions could lead to a supply shortage. The high price and profit margins create a foundation for price increases, especially as the AI investment race in Europe and the U.S. faces electricity supply constraints, potentially threatening over 4 million tons of existing supply and accelerating aluminum prices upward [1]. Power Grid Equipment Performance - Huatai Securities reported significant performance differentiation in the power grid equipment sector for Q3. The revenue growth rates for various segments were as follows: non-UHV main grid at 38.2%, UHV main grid at 5.2%, distribution at -23.6%, and electric meters at -28.4%. The non-UHV main grid performed well due to strong overseas demand and ongoing domestic construction needs, with projected bidding amounts for 2024 and 2025 showing year-on-year increases of 8.2% and 19.5%, respectively. In contrast, the distribution segment faced challenges from domestic price reductions and weakened demand, while electric meter companies struggled with declining prices and increased competition in overseas markets [2]. Quantum Computing Development - CICC noted that quantum computing is transitioning from experimental validation to commercial application, marking a critical turning point. With advancements from global tech giants like Google, IBM, and Microsoft, and China's progress with prototypes, the global quantum computing market is expected to grow from $5 billion in 2024 to over $800 billion by 2035, with a CAGR exceeding 55%. The hardware segment is anticipated to benefit first, with core devices like measurement control systems and dilution refrigerators entering mass production soon [2].

Core Viewpoint - In October, A-shares maintained a high-level fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.1% and 1.56% respectively. Despite this, 69% of the private equity products from billion-yuan private equity firms reached historical highs in net value, indicating resilience in certain investment strategies amidst market volatility [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall trading volume in the A-share market shrank compared to previous months, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [2]. - Among billion-yuan private equity products, 407 products achieved historical net value highs, with quantitative products leading the way [2][3]. Group 2: Product Strategy and Performance - The majority of high-performing products were equity strategies, with 327 products, of which 201 were quantitative long strategies and 103 were subjective long strategies [2][3]. - 24 billion-yuan private equity firms had over 80% of their products reach historical highs, with 13 firms achieving 100% of their products hitting new highs [3][4]. Group 3: Notable Firms and Products - Notable firms such as Dongfang Gangwan and Jukun Investment had over 90% of their products reach historical highs, with Dongfang Gangwan leading with 77 out of 80 products achieving this milestone [4][9]. - The top-performing products over the past year were primarily from firms like Yuanxin Investment and Juku Investment, with significant returns attributed to investments in the AI sector [8][12]. Group 4: Long-term Performance - Over the past three years, macro strategy products from firms like Juku Investment and Honghu Private Equity dominated the top rankings, indicating a strong performance in this investment category [12][16]. - The five-year performance rankings were led by Honghu Private Equity and Jukun Investment, showcasing the effectiveness of their investment strategies over a longer horizon [16][19].

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing importance of "fixed income +" products in a market characterized by declining interest rates and the shift towards net asset value management in bank wealth management [1][2] - It emphasizes the need for investors to understand the optimal equity-debt allocation and strategies to navigate market volatility for better investment experiences and returns [1] Group 1: Risk-Return Optimization - The management of "fixed income +" products requires a balance between risk and return, with a focus on understanding client expectations and market volatility [4][5] - Different products cater to varying risk appetites, with low and medium volatility products being more suitable for a broader range of investors [4][6] - A three-tiered drawdown warning mechanism is established to manage portfolio risks effectively, with ongoing optimization efforts [6][8] Group 2: Preserving Returns - In challenging equity market conditions, maintaining the returns of "fixed income +" products is crucial, with a focus on asset allocation and flexible investment styles [10][11] - The importance of a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure is highlighted, particularly in low-volatility products [10][11] Group 3: Absolute Return Pursuit - Achieving absolute return targets has become increasingly difficult in a low-interest-rate environment, necessitating strong trading and timing skills from fund managers [12][13] - Risk budget management is employed to construct "fixed income +" portfolios within the constraints of current market conditions [12][13] Group 4: Growth Style Risk Control - The article discusses the necessity of combining asset allocation strategies with trading capabilities to navigate high-volatility markets effectively [14][15] - Identifying macroeconomic risks and structural market trends is essential for maintaining a favorable risk-return profile [15] Group 5: Market Evolution and Adaptation - The capital market landscape has changed significantly, with a systematic decline in asset yields and a shift in investor demographics impacting market dynamics [17][18] - Fund managers are adapting by broadening their research focus to include global markets and various asset classes [17][18] Group 6: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing is emphasized as a strategy for managing asset pricing and duration effectively, aiming for a balanced risk-return profile [19][20] - The gradual process of rebalancing is preferred to mitigate risks and smooth out returns over time [20] Group 7: Growth Style "Fixed Income +" - The article highlights a unique approach to "fixed income +" products that incorporate a growth style, aiming to provide stable returns while capitalizing on growth opportunities [21][22] - This strategy is designed to appeal to long-term investors seeking to benefit from societal development trends [22] Group 8: Combining Active and Quantitative Approaches - The integration of quantitative tools with fundamental research is becoming increasingly important for enhancing investment management processes [23][24] - The use of AI and data analytics is noted as a means to improve research efficiency and decision-making [24][25] Group 9: Low Turnover Alpha Sources - The article outlines a method for identifying companies with alpha potential across various industries, emphasizing the importance of aligning investment intentions with company types [26][27] - Continuous learning and industry insights are crucial for selecting companies that can deliver long-term value [27][28] Group 10: Forward-Looking Technology Layout - The focus on technology investments, particularly in AI, is highlighted as a strategic move to capitalize on emerging trends [30][31] - The need for ongoing evaluation of business models and cash flow generation capabilities in the tech sector is emphasized [31][32]