Market News - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the December PMI data on December 31, with November's manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October [4] - The People's Bank of China aims to significantly increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds invested in A-shares, promoting a virtuous cycle between capital market stability and high-quality economic development [6] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, expected to save over 1.9 billion yuan in total [7] Sector Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, focusing on key technologies and industry standards [11] - The 2025 Shenzhen Brain Conference aims to create a platform for industry integration and innovation [13] - The 2025 China Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will discuss policies and technological breakthroughs that will impact the green hydrogen industry chain [14] Individual Stock Events - CATL plans to apply sodium batteries on a large scale in various sectors including battery swapping and energy storage in 2026 [17] - Xiaomi's co-founder plans to reduce holdings of up to $2 billion in B-class common stock [17] - ST Huluwawa and its chairman are under investigation for information disclosure violations [17] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 34 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 3.697 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 58.895 billion yuan [18] - The peak lock-up expiration date is December 30, with 13 companies releasing shares worth a total of 27.645 billion yuan [18] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on communication and resource-related ETFs [25] - Guojin Securities identifies new investment themes emerging in 2026, emphasizing the importance of AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing [26] - Zhongtai Securities believes there is still upward potential in the market before the Spring Festival, with opportunities for low-cost positioning [27]

Group 1 - The article highlights that among 360 industry/theme ETFs, 39 reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus is on structural opportunities in a volatile market, with sectors like chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy being prioritized due to their long-term ROE potential, alongside emerging themes like commercial aerospace [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of the RMB appreciation trend and its implications for investment strategies, particularly in brokerage and insurance sectors [3] Group 2 - The article discusses favorable conditions for the spring market rally, driven by liquidity and investor expectations, with a focus on the A500 ETF and potential market fluctuations at year-end and early next year [4] - It notes that the RMB's recent strength, driven by corporate settlement demand and a favorable external environment, could lead to a capital market rally, benefiting sectors reliant on imported materials and those with significant foreign currency liabilities [6] - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and manufacturing sectors, particularly in AI and global manufacturing recovery, recommending investments in industrial resources and equipment exports [8] Group 3 - The article indicates that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally phase, supported by optimistic institutional investor sentiment and favorable policy expectations [9] - It suggests that the spring market is likely to exhibit structural characteristics with rapid sector rotation, encouraging investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [13][14] - The article highlights the potential for a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption [1] - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - It also highlights the Chinese equipment export chain with global comparative advantages, confirming a cyclical bottom, including sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with the cross-year market rally starting, moving beyond a single narrative focused on AI to a broader range of themes including domestic demand and new industry topics [2] - The price increase chain has become a market focus, driven by rising raw material prices and the effects of anti-involution policies, leading some companies to reduce production and jointly raise prices [3] - The ongoing global manufacturing recovery is expected to continue with investment outpacing consumption, while the relationship between AI investment and metal prices is compared to past trends in coal and new energy [4] Group 3 - The new external circulation pattern is leading to a new cycle of RMB appreciation, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with expectations of a recovery in China’s export resilience [5] - The RMB's appreciation is alleviating cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, aviation, electronics, and lithium batteries [6] - Historical trends indicate that during periods of RMB appreciation, the sales gross margin of companies exposed to high external demand typically experiences a slight increase followed by a decrease, suggesting a nuanced impact on export competitiveness [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a continuous rise, indicating the gradual initiation of a year-end rally, with global risk assets recovering amid easing liquidity tightening expectations [3][12] - The market is shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of themes, including domestic demand, price increase chains, and new industrial themes like commercial aerospace [3][12] - The current market rally is characterized by industry rotation and the emergence of new investment themes for 2026, driven by the interplay between AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [3][12] Group 2 - Recent price increases across various industries have become a focal point, with raw material price hikes being a primary driver, leading to passive price increases in many sectors [4][17] - The effects of anti-involution policies are becoming evident, as some companies opt for voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order amid rising upstream costs and downstream price pressures [4][17] - The sustainability of price increases varies by sector, with strong demand in some areas like lithium battery and wafer manufacturing, while sectors with weaker demand, such as titanium dioxide, may face challenges in sustaining price hikes [4][24] Group 3 - A new cycle of RMB appreciation is emerging, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with medium-term support from improved China-U.S. relations and resilient export performance [5][33] - Historical trends indicate that during RMB appreciation periods, companies with high overseas exposure often experience a temporary increase in sales margins, followed by a decline, suggesting a complex relationship between currency strength and export competitiveness [5][34] - The current RMB appreciation is expected to alleviate cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, and lithium batteries [5][40] Group 4 - The new investment themes for 2026 are beginning to manifest across commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [6][12] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as equipment export chains with global comparative advantages, and consumer sectors benefiting from inbound recovery and rising household income [6][12]

近期A股市场连续上涨，市场期待的跨年行情逐渐启动。在国内外基本面尚未出现重大变化之际，当下 反弹更像是前期分母端流动性紧缩预期边际缓和后的全球风险资产共振修复，海外主要股指均实现不同 程度的上涨。值得一提的是市场逐渐不再聚焦于AI中外映射行情的单一叙事，而是向更广泛的领域扩 散，呈现出AI、内需、涨价链、新的产业主题（商业航天）轮涨的格局。单一叙事驱动下的市场上涨 具备不稳定与高波动性，真正的牛市往往是广泛市场机会涌现与形成合力，在当前市场缓步向上，行业 轮动加速之际，2026年新的投资主线也正在慢慢浮出水面。 2 如何理解近期各产业链涨价：实物消耗的扩散与汇聚 当下涨价链成为市场焦点，通过梳理各行业涨价函具体内容与业内分析可以看到，原材料价格的上涨成 为价格主要推升因素；与此同时，反内卷政策的效果也正在显现，在面临上游涨价，下游压价的困境 时，部分企业开始选择自发减产与联合提价的方式维护产业合理竞争秩序。往后看由于需求端的景气程 度差异，涨价的持续性也有所不同。对于大宗商品而言，我们认为凌厉的上涨可能有两层原因：本轮有 色金属的上涨，可能在指示边际需求更多由大量高毛利与成长性的新兴部门所驱动，占后者的成本比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, characterized by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across manufacturing sectors and extended trading ranges for bulk commodities, with China's manufacturing advantages becoming more evident and reflected in the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and industrial resource products that resonate with the global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the cycle bottom, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles, as well as domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] - Capture the recovery in inbound tourism and the increase in residents' income, leading to a rebound in consumption in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns in non-bank sectors, including insurance and brokerage firms [1]

中国银河证券表示，A股市场在临近年末关口震荡上行，呈现出"小躁动"行情，截至周五，上证指数录 得八连阳。同时，行情呈现出流动性驱动特征，市场量能明显放大，周五全A成交额突破2万亿元。短 期来看，市场结构特征有望延续，量能或是行情的关键信号。热点板块个股分歧有所加大，重点关注核 心标的。美元指数趋弱与年末结汇需求推动下，人民币汇率在周内升破7.0关口。人民币资产吸引力提 升，积极因素正在进一步积累。展望后市，关注政策预期与产业趋势的催化机会，春季躁动行情值得期 待。2026年来看，A股市场有望呈现出向上动能。 A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计涨1.88%，深证成指涨3.53%，创业板指涨3.9%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①中国银河证券：A股或迎接跨年"小躁动"行情 关注：1、AI投资与全球制造业复苏共振的工业资源品——铜、铝、锡、锂、原油及油运；2、具备全 球比较优势且周期底部确认的中国设备出口链——电网设备、储能、锂电、光伏、工程机械、商用车， 以及国内制造业底部反转品种——化工（印染、煤化工、农药、聚氨酯、钛白粉）、晶圆制造等；3、 抓住入境修复与居民增收叠加的消费回升通道——航空、 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿 （19945767933） 事项 三季度美国 GDP 好于预期， GDP 环比折年率 +4.3% ，前值 +3.8% ，预期 +3% ，显著强于季节性； GDP 同比 +2.3% ，前值 +2.1% ，预期 +2% 。 核心观点 Q3 经济超预期的主要来源为： ①库存投资负向拖累大幅改善（库存投资对 GDP 环比增速的拉动率为 -0.2% ，较前值提升 3.2 个百分 点），主要为抢进口修复后回归常态；②个人消费支出继续强劲增长（私人消费对 GDP 环比增速的拉动率为 2.4% ，较前值提升 0.7 个 百分点），但结构仍是服务消费强、耐用品消费弱。 Q3 数据进一步佐证了美国经济冷热不均的分化，且短期难以改善这一分化。总量向上： AI 投资继续拉动经济 + 富人财富效应下支撑消费 偏强。 但民生向下： 传统制造业与商品消费弱，导致"蓝领"就业难；普通人享受不到 AI 的财富增值，反而财务状况不断恶化， 67% 的 人口处于"月光族"。 经济冷热不均的分化能暂时避免经济衰退的到来，但无法解决政治风险。考虑到 2026 ...

中经记者 张漫游 北京报道 2026年全球经济身处格局重构、动能切换的关键节点，经济合作与发展组织预测全球GDP增速将降至 2.9%，针对2026年全球及中国经济走势，在《中国经营报》零观财经栏目中，《中国经营报》记者对 话了星展银行首席中国经济学家纪沫博士。 不同于目前的市场观点，她对2026年全球经济走势持乐观态度。纪沫认为，美国经济受降息、"大漂 亮"法案实施、AI基础设施投资等多重因素驱动大概率上行，中国作为"十五五"开局之年经济表现将超 市场预期，新兴经济体也将同步受益，2026年全球经济或呈现上升趋势。同时，纪沫特别提出，中国有 54项核心科技已实现全球领先，将以"全球经济稳定器"与"全球科技助推器"双重身份，在复杂变局中引 领高质量发展。 全球经济：上行动能凸显 财政发力成关键 在全球经济展望方面，纪沫打破市场普遍的悲观预期，指出2026年全球经济存在多重未被计价的上行因 素。 对于美国经济，她分析称，除市场已预期的美联储降息将形成政策刺激外，"大漂亮"法案的正式执行、 AI基础设施投资的持续推进、国防开支增加以及制造业全产业链布局（包括稀土在内的领域）的投资 加码，将共同推动美国经济上行。 谈 ...

研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 25 日 张继强 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：值得重视的城乡居民增收计划 "十五五规划"和中央经济工作会议提出"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"； 随后发改委在文章《坚定实施扩大内需战略》中提及"提高居民收入在国民 收入分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重，努力实现居民收入 和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步"（"两个提高"，十 五五规划中还有"三个多得"——多劳者多得、技高者多得、创新者多 得）。 风险提示：政策推进不及预期、地缘政治风险。 研报发布日期：2025-12-24 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 吴靖 SAC:S0570523070006 固定收益：三个视角看美国 AI 投资 近期 AI 局部泡沫担忧仍在不时扰动市场，核心矛盾还是在投资端。我们尝试 从三个角度审视 AI 投资的可持续性。从违 ...