Geopolitical Impact - On February 28, 2026, military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran and explosions in several Gulf countries[1] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route, handles approximately 20% of global oil consumption, with a daily transport volume of about 20 million barrels; any blockage could lead to a significant spike in international oil prices[3] Commodity Market Effects - Short-term market reactions indicate a surge in gold and oil prices due to heightened risk aversion, with inflation expectations likely driving up prices of industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel[3] - If the geopolitical situation escalates into a prolonged regional conflict, it could disrupt global supply chains and lead to sustained high oil prices, potentially forcing central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies[4] Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term due to inflows of risk-averse capital, but may face long-term depreciation pressures if the conflict leads to increased US fiscal deficits[3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to maintain a stable appreciation trend, supported by strong domestic demand and a favorable trade balance, with a short-term trading range against the dollar expected between 6.80 and 6.95[3] Stock Market Reactions - Initial impacts of the geopolitical conflict may lead to downward pressure on global stock markets, including A-shares, but the long-term outlook for A-shares remains positive due to strong domestic economic fundamentals[4] - Sectors directly benefiting from the conflict, such as gold, oil, and military industries, may see positive performance, while other sectors could experience short-term volatility[4] Bond Market Outlook - Increased risk aversion is likely to drive capital into the bond market, particularly Chinese government bonds, which are favored during periods of yuan appreciation[5] - The direction of the Chinese bond market will primarily depend on domestic fiscal and monetary policies, with expectations of continued liquidity support from the central bank[5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the impact of large model companies on the IT budget allocation within the software sector, particularly focusing on the U.S. stock market and its software companies [1][3] - The call highlights the ongoing trends in the cloud computing sector, traditional hardware manufacturers, and the energy sector, particularly in relation to AI investments and infrastructure needs [1][2][7] Core Points and Arguments Software Sector Dynamics - Large model companies are competing for IT budgets, leading to a redistribution of funds from traditional software companies, which is pressuring their valuations [1][3] - OpenAI has identified major software firms like Salesforce and Adobe as potential competitors, emphasizing the need for these companies to adapt to the changing market landscape [3] Cloud Computing Investments - Despite cash flow pressures, cloud companies are prioritizing AI investments over stock buybacks and dividends, indicating a shift in capital expenditure strategies [5][6] - The trend of "using the last bullet" in AI investments suggests that cloud firms are committed to maintaining their competitive edge, even at the expense of shareholder returns [5] Traditional Hardware Manufacturers - The "AI tax" refers to the increased costs of intermediate goods, such as storage, which are negatively impacting profit margins for traditional hardware manufacturers [6][7] - Companies like Lenovo and others have reported declining profit margins due to rising storage prices, indicating a broader trend affecting the hardware supply chain [6][7] Energy Sector and Infrastructure - The U.S. stock market is shifting from growth to value, with strong performance observed in the energy sector, particularly in electricity-related industries [1][7] - The demand for electricity infrastructure is expected to grow due to AI expansion, with significant implications for various segments including nuclear, green, and gas power [7] Political and Regulatory Influences - The upcoming midterm elections are intensifying the focus on affordable electricity, with policies expected to support cloud companies in building their own power sources [8] - Recent political events, including potential changes in tariffs and commitments from tech executives to ensure data centers pay for electricity, are shaping the energy landscape [8] Additional Important Insights - The U.S. is focusing on resource diplomacy, particularly concerning critical minerals, with strategies to stabilize prices and ensure supply chains are protected from foreign interference [9][10] - The demand for critical minerals, such as copper, is projected to increase significantly, with strategic stockpiling efforts being discussed [10][11] - Recent changes in U.S. oil production, including a potential decline in output, suggest that the oil market may be approaching a bottom, which could present investment opportunities [13] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of software, cloud computing, traditional manufacturing, and energy sectors, along with the influence of political dynamics on these industries.

2026 年 3 月 1 日 总量研究 如何看待"HALO 交易"？ ——《光大投资时钟》第三十篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利 率曲线？——《光大投资时钟》系列第二十 九篇（2026-02-10） 黄金权重下调，需要担忧么？——《光大投 资时钟》第二十八篇（2025-12-24） "猪周期"投资的新范式——《光大投资时 钟》第二十七篇（2025-12-15） 黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？—— 《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇 （2025-10-21） 黄金周：黄金上涨的三个新变量——《光大 投资时钟》系列报告第二十五篇（2025- 10-08） 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响——《大 国博弈》系列第八十九篇（2025-09-25） 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights concerns regarding the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which may impact market sentiment and risk appetite, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [4][7] - It is anticipated that the A-share market will experience a return to fundamental trends as the spring rally concludes and the earnings disclosure season approaches, with a wide fluctuation expected until the end of April [4][7] - The report suggests that the recent geopolitical tensions have already been priced into global commodity and equity markets, indicating that the current Middle East conflict may only affect short-term market sentiment without altering the overall market direction [4][7] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as energy, oil transportation, precious metals, and military industries, driven by the geopolitical conflict [4][14] - The "HALO trading" strategy is highlighted as beneficial for sectors like utilities, transportation infrastructure, and metals, as investors seek hard assets that are less likely to be replaced by technology [11][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming National People's Congress for economic policy directions, which are expected to maintain a "double easing" stance to support economic recovery [8][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share index has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.98% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.80% in the previous week [16] - It mentions that the average daily trading volume in the two markets was approximately 24,227.7 billion yuan, indicating robust market activity [16] - The report also discusses the performance of various sectors, with steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals showing significant gains [16][19]

Market Trends - After the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a trend of oscillating upward, characterized by a "weak tech narrative and strong inflation narrative" similar to the "HALO trade" discussed overseas[2] - The market direction remains optimistic, but short-term fluctuations are expected as the Two Sessions approach, with historical data indicating a 90% win rate for the index in the two weeks prior to the sessions[3] - The U.S. tariff policy remains uncertain, but the continuous appreciation of the RMB may not pose a core contradiction in the short term[3] Economic Expectations - Economic and profit expectations are likely to evolve, with macroeconomic data showing significant divergence at the beginning of the year[2] - The high-frequency economic data in March is expected to exhibit upward volatility, influenced by the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and the resumption of production[3] - Historical patterns suggest that economic data in March-April often experiences larger fluctuations compared to expectations, which could lead to market increases[3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, may continue to strengthen the inflation narrative based on energy security, creating structural opportunities in sectors like gold, oil and gas, and military industries[2] - The market is expected to favor sectors with high entry barriers and reset costs, such as infrastructure and strategic resources, amidst rapid technological advancements in AI[5] Investment Strategies - Historical investment experiences indicate that bull markets in growth stocks (2009-2010, 2013, 2019-2021) are typically accompanied by stronger ROE, with previous bull markets that did not rely on profit realization being short-lived[2] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, and basic chemicals, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and strong performance metrics[27]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a clear characteristic of "weak technology narrative, strong inflation narrative," resembling the "HALO trade" discussed overseas. The overall market direction remains optimistic, but short-term fluctuations are expected as the Two Sessions approach [2][10]. - Seasonal patterns around the Two Sessions may impact short-term market volatility. Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 90% win rate in the two weeks leading up to the Two Sessions, but this decreases to about 50% during the sessions themselves [3][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies may not constitute a core contradiction for the stock market in the short term, especially with the continuous appreciation of the RMB. The recent ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding tariff measures has alleviated some pressure [3][14]. Group 2 - The next phase may see an evolution of economic and profit expectations, with March marking a transition from policy anticipation to implementation. Economic data is expected to show significant fluctuations, particularly in March and April, which could lead to market increases [3][18]. - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, may continue to strengthen the inflation narrative based on energy security, creating structural opportunities in sectors such as gold, oil and gas, and military industries [3][19]. - The report highlights that previous bull markets in growth stocks were often accompanied by stronger ROE, and those that did not rely on profit realization tended to be short-lived [3][21]. Group 3 - The report suggests a strategic focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, and basic chemicals, which are expected to perform well due to favorable policies and themes. The oil and gas sector is also highlighted due to the geopolitical context and rising oil prices [3][24][25]. - The TMT sector is noted for its potential but carries profit concerns due to its "light asset" nature. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance verification and moderate trading crowding [3][26]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in valuations, driven by the stabilization of the real estate market and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows [3][27].

- The HALO trading strategy focuses on going long on "AI-resistant and AI-dependent" heavy assets while shorting "AI-disruptible" light assets[2][11] - The strategy suggests focusing on sectors like power grid equipment, energy, mining, industrial equipment, defense, and signal towers[2][11] - Recent market performance indicates initial validation of the HALO strategy, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, communication, building materials, machinery, and chemicals performing well over the past quarter[2][11] - The macro strategy chart toolbox helps track the HALO trading status through metrics like crowding and industry differentiation[3][11] - Crowding: Current transaction volume share of cyclical sectors is below the median of the past 10 years, while advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors are around the 85%-90% percentile[3][11] - Industry differentiation: This indicator has been oscillating upwards since the beginning of the year and has now returned to the level of August 2025[3][11] - Historical excess returns: Cyclical sectors are in the early stages of an upward trend after a long-term bottoming, TMT sectors are at historical highs, advanced manufacturing sectors are above the median, and consumption and financial real estate sectors are still at the bottom of the past 20 years[12] - Based on the HALO trading logic and current status, the recommended mid-term allocation priority is "cyclical > advanced manufacturing > TMT"[13]

Group 1 - The report discusses the "HALO trade," indicating that the market is beginning to speculate on changes in industry organization forms due to the AI era. Industries that may be replaced by AI, those with weakened barriers leading to compressed excess profits, and tech leaders that may not continue to succeed are all being reassessed, leading to downward pressure on valuation centers [4][5][6] - The report emphasizes that the current thinking about the endgame of AI is difficult to cover all key factors. The market tends to project tech industry trends to their ultimate capabilities but often fails to consider the gradual changes in productivity, production relations, and political systems that will inevitably occur during AI's advancement [4][6] - Strategic assets that are not easily replaceable are highlighted as core investment clues, especially in the context of great power competition. The inflation logic surrounding strategic resources and energy in the AI era may be further reinforced [5][6] Group 2 - Short-term market characteristics observed post-Spring Festival show that A-shares reflect a weak response to long-term tech narratives but a strong response to visible "new and old economic inflation." This is related to the "HALO trade" and the impact of Federal Reserve easing expectations [8][9] - The report maintains the mid-term projection of a "two-phase upward market," with the spring 2026 market expected to extend the structural market of 2025. Currently, the overall PE valuation of A-shares is at a historical high, indicating an inherent demand for market consolidation [9] - The report identifies short-term inflation directions as a major source of structural advantage, with cyclical products like steel and coal experiencing short-term price increases, although the sustainability of these price hikes is uncertain [10] Group 3 - Mid-term structural recommendations remain unchanged, focusing on growth tech and cyclical alpha. Key areas of interest in growth tech include overseas computing power chains, AI applications, semiconductors, robotics, commercial aerospace, and energy storage [10] - The report suggests that the extension of cyclical alpha investments may involve export or overseas chains, and there is a positive outlook on the revaluation opportunities in non-bank financials [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in the U.S. stock market, where retail investors are excited about AI advancements while institutional investors are selling off high-margin software stocks in favor of heavy asset companies, indicating a potential long-term trend towards valuing physical assets over digital ones [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon is termed "HALO trading," which stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence, reflecting a market preference for companies with substantial physical assets that are less likely to become obsolete [4]. - There is a growing concern that AI could disrupt the software industry by making traditional software services easily replicable, thus diminishing their competitive edge and valuation [10][12]. - The market is currently pricing in "scarcity," as physical assets cannot be easily replicated like software, leading to a surge in investments in sectors like semiconductors and infrastructure [21][22]. Group 2: Performance Comparison - Since 2025, heavy asset portfolios have outperformed light asset portfolios by 35%, indicating a significant shift in investment strategy [26]. - The article lists various heavy asset sectors that have seen substantial gains, including silver, oil and gas drilling, and semiconductor equipment, with some sectors experiencing increases of over 70% [27]. - The performance of heavy asset companies is attributed to their ability to meet the increasing demand for physical infrastructure driven by AI, which has created a massive incremental market [28]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The article highlights that the construction of physical assets requires significant time and investment, making them less susceptible to rapid technological changes compared to software [32]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, leading to a renewed focus on domestic manufacturing and critical materials, which are now viewed as strategic resources [30]. - The HALO trading strategy encompasses various sectors, including materials, utilities, and defense, which are expected to benefit from the long-term demand for physical infrastructure [34][35]. Group 4: Software Industry Outlook - Despite concerns about the future of software stocks, major companies like Salesforce and SAP have maintained high profit margins, suggesting that the software industry may still hold value [45]. - The article posits that AI will not replace existing software but will integrate with it, enhancing its capabilities rather than rendering it obsolete [42][44]. - The fear of software becoming worthless may present a buying opportunity, as the market may be overreacting to the potential impact of AI [47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that companies with "heavy assets and low elimination rates" (HALO) characteristics are becoming favored by capital as investors reassess risks amid the AI wave, with Japan's stock market positioned to benefit from this strategic shift [1][2] - Morgan Stanley introduced the HALO trading concept, advocating for investments in high-barrier physical assets like utilities and railroads to mitigate risks associated with technological iterations [1] - Goldman Sachs supports this trend, indicating that the market is undergoing a "scarcity revaluation," where tangible production capabilities are becoming a scarce resource, leading to a shift away from the blind pursuit of light-asset narratives [1][2] Group 2 - Japan retains essential skills across the entire industrial chain, which is increasingly in demand as the U.S. pushes for re-industrialization, exemplified by the reliance on Japanese precision machinery for large gas turbine projects [2] - The share of Japanese companies in the sectors covered by Morgan Stanley's HALO index, including materials and utilities, has significantly increased, reflecting a revaluation of industrial value [2] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange's main board price-to-book ratio (P/B) has rebounded by 32% from last year's low, indicating a shift in capital perception towards Japan's industrial capabilities [2] Group 3 - The HALO strategy is not a guaranteed safeguard, as its core assumption relies on the continued deepening of AI disruption; any sudden changes in technology or market preferences could put Japanese stocks under pressure again [3] - Japanese manufacturing is experiencing a long-awaited value discovery, with companies maintaining their HALO status amidst criticism, which could resurface at any time [3] - Japan, once viewed as lagging behind, may be writing a new growth narrative as global capital reassesses the defensive appeal of heavy assets [3]