Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw short - term weakness and long - term strength in the Treasury bond market. The central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity, boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in Sino - US trade talks has reduced market disturbances. The market anticipates that the central bank will mainly purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially long - term rates as well. However, the potential suppression of long - term rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.660，环比0%；成交量66835，环比增加933。TF主力收盘价106.030，环比 - 0.01%；成交量50509，环比减少2173。TS主力收盘价102.498，环比 - 0.01%；成交量19329，环比减少5311。TL主力收盘价116.520，环比0.03%；成交量86971，环比减少11856 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，环比增加0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.86，环比减少0.03。T2512 - 2603价差0.26，环比减少0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.63，环比不变。TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，环比减少0.01；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.16，环比不变。TS2512 - 2603价差0.04，环比增加0.00；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.53，环比不变 [2]. 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量240832，环比减少3036；T前20名多头234667，环比增加2353；T前20名空头253814，环比增加2422；T前20名净空仓19147，环比减少1488。TF主力持仓量149798；TF前20名多头139385，环比减少45；TF前20名空头160251，环比增加10；TF前20名净空仓20866，环比增加55。TS主力持仓量70457，环比减少709；TS前20名多头64962，环比减少540；TS前20名空头74541，环比减少8；TS前20名净空仓9579，环比增加532。TL主力持仓量134287，环比减少3487；TL前20名多头133484，环比减少884；TL前20名空头151049，环比减少1420；TL前20名净空仓17565，环比减少536 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.7266，环比减少0.0192；220019.IB(4y）净价99.0955，环比减少0.0190。250003.IB(4y）净价99.6713，环比减少0.0117；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比减少0.0202。250017.IB(1.7y)净价100.0353，环比减少0.0110；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0453，环比减少0.0160。210005.IB(17y)净价131.5531，环比增加0.0439；210014.IB(18y)净价127.8009，环比减少0.0022 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.3850%，环比增加0.50bp；3y收益率1.4175%，环比增加0.75bp；5y收益率1.5350%，环比增加0.50bp；7y收益率1.6395%，环比增加0.95bp；10y收益率1.7900%，环比减少0.25bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3066%，环比增加0.66bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，环比减少0.10bp。银质押7天利率1.4058%，环比减少2.42bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比增加0.30bp。银质押14天利率1.4400%，环比减少1.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.4780%，环比增加0.90bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR为3.00%，环比不变；5y LPR为3.5%，环比不变 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1175亿，环比减少3578亿；到期规模4753亿；利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways, while threats and pressure do not help solve problems. - The Ministry of Finance updated its official website, listing the Debt Management Department under the "Ministry Agencies". The department is responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc. [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - On November 5th at 21:15, the US ADP employment figures for October will be released. - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume rebound on Monday, with pro - cyclical sectors performing well. The four major stock index futures contracts had narrow - range fluctuations, and the basis of the main contracts was adjusted. Domestic policy is expected to support the PMI index, while overseas, there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. Different futures varieties have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and news[3][4][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures 3.1.1. Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, A - share major indices opened lower and closed higher with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. Pro - cyclical sectors such as forestry, oil and gas, and coal performed well, while industrial sectors such as precious metals, basic metals, and automobiles declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all had narrow - range fluctuations, with IF2512 and IH2512 down 0.04% and 0.00% respectively, IC2512 down 0.34%, and IM2512 up 0.01%. The basis of the four major contracts was adjusted[3][4]. - **News**: China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary suggested interest rate cuts if inflation drops. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to about 63%[4][5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Try to sell out - of - the - money put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread with put options to capture the subsequent upside space[5]. 3.1.2. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed mostly lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.03%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were mixed[6]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, with a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were loose, and short - term interest rates are expected to remain low[6][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: In November, the bond market may enter a waiting stage. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities due to the rise of IRR[7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected. The US government shutdown has affected the economy, and the gold tax policy has led to price adjustments by some enterprises. The precious metals market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range[8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the precious metals market will enter an oscillation stage with falling volatility. The international gold price may operate in the range of 3995 - 4070 US dollars (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to conduct volatility operations or sell out - of - the - money gold put options at high prices. Silver prices will oscillate in the range of 47 - 50 US dollars (11000 - 11700 yuan)[9][11]. - **Funding**: The recent rise and fall of gold and silver prices have led to an outflow of ETF funds, and investors' short - term attitudes tend to be cautious[11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - Europe basic ports in the next 6 weeks varied among different shipping companies[12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% month - on - month; the US - West route index was 1267.15 points, up 14.43% month - on - month. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index was 1550.7 points, up 10% month - on - month[12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33.35 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7[12]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips[13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1. Copper - **Spot**: As of November 3, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86840 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement volume increased slightly as copper prices declined[13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The US - China economic and trade consultation reached a consensus, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff case[14]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC was at a low level. In October, the SMM Chinese electrolytic copper output decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decrease by 0.4 million tons in November[14][15]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released when prices fall[15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased[16]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: After the positive expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, the short - term driving force is weak. The main contract should focus on the support level of 86000 - 86500 yuan/ton, and the short - term view is oscillation[17]. 3.4.2. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with a general loosening of prices due to a gradually loose supply pattern and stable demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry[17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, but the situation may improve[18]. - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants all increased in October, and the total registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts also increased[18]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The alumina price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite and other factors[19][20]. 3.4.3. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day[20]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and it is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots will continue to increase slightly in October[20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries entered the traditional peak season, but the weekly start - up rate of processing products declined[20]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social aluminum ingot inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased[21]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the subsequent inventory changes and LME de - stocking intensity[22]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 spot average price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day[23]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased, and it is expected that the start - up rate will remain flat in October[23]. - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission was not smooth, and high prices inhibited downstream procurement[23][24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories increased slightly, and the total registered volume of casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased[24]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the long AD01 and short AL01 arbitrage when the spread is above 550[25]. 3.4.5. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand[25]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore processing fee decreased, and the smelting profit was compressed, which limited the subsequent output increase. The supply of the zinc industry chain has changed from loose to tight[26]. - **Demand**: The demand did not exceed expectations, with domestic demand stronger than overseas. The inventory of the three primary processing industries showed a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in finished - product inventory[27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories and LME inventories both decreased[27]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton[28]. 3.4.6. Tin - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading was light[28]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month, and the tin ingot import volume returned to normal. The tin ingot export volume increased[29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder start - up rate increased slightly, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields was weak. LME inventories decreased, while social inventories decreased slightly[31]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The tin price is expected to oscillate widely. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter[32]. 3.4.7. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day[32]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production was at a high level, and the monthly production was expected to continue to increase slightly[33]. - **Demand**: The demand from electroplating and stainless steel was general, while the demand from alloys was relatively good. The demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term[33]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories increased[33]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies[34][35]. 3.4.8. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased, and the basis decreased[35]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, while the nickel - iron price decreased, and the cost support of raw materials declined[35]. - **Supply**: In September and October, domestic stainless steel production increased[36]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased[36]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply[37][38]. 3.4.9. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market spot circulation was tight, but most downstream enterprises still chose to wait and see[38]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, but the weekly production decreased slightly recently, mainly due to the decline in lithium - spodumene - extracted lithium carbonate production[39]. - **Demand**: The demand was generally optimistic, with an expected increase in the production of lithium - iron and ternary materials. Pay attention to the marginal change in downstream orders after November[39]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in all links last week[40]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton[41][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals 3.5.1. Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was weak, with the rebar basis strengthening and the hot - rolled coil basis weakening[42]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil[42]. - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron - element output increased by 5% year - on - year. In October, the increase narrowed. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the molten iron output decreased, but the five - major steel products output increased slightly[42]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation was still weak, while the export remained at a high level. The apparent demand of the five - major steel products increased, and the inventory pressure was relieved[42][43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five - major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will continue to decline month - on - month[43]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils. Consider holding the long - coking - coal and short - hot - rolled - coil arbitrage[44][45]. 3.5.2. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or decreased[46]. - **Futures**: As of November 3, the iron ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened[46]. - **Basis**: The best - delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated[46]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the daily molten iron output, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased, and the steel - mill profitability declined[46]. - **Supply**: As of November 3, the global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly[47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the port inventory increased, the daily port - clearing volume increased, and the steel - mill iron - ore inventory decreased[47]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The iron ore price is expected to be weak. Consider shorting the 2601 contract on rallies, with the reference range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage[48]. 3.5.3. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 3, the coking coal futures prices oscillated and declined, while the spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia were strong[49]. - **Supply**: As of October 30, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in Fenwei increased slightly, while that in Ganglian decreased slightly. The coal inventories in mines decreased[49][50][51]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the coke production of coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the molten iron output decreased[51]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with mines, ports, and washing plants de - stocking, and coking plants and steel mills increasing inventory[52]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The coking - coal price is expected to

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing sector has been in decline for eight consecutive months, with the manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating continued weakness in the real - economy and putting pressure on the US economy, which may require a loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to remain volatile [3][19][21]. - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000. With the implementation of domestic tax policies, the purchase cost of jewelry and gold bars has increased. Multiple Fed officials' statements suggest that a December rate cut is not the baseline scenario, and short - term gold prices lack direct positive factors and are in a correction trend [2][15]. - The stock market showed a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index [23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the supply - demand situation of agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals varies, and investment suggestions are provided accordingly [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate policies. Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and short - term gold prices face a risk of decline [13][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government shutdown is approaching the longest record in history, and Peru has severed diplomatic relations with Mexico. The US manufacturing activity has been in decline for eight consecutive months, and the dollar index is expected to remain volatile [17][19][22]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The Ministry of Finance has established a new Debt Management Department. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in stock indices evenly [23][24][25]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI has been in decline for eight consecutive months. Fed officials have different stances on a December rate cut. The US economy is in a downward trend, and the technology sector is strong, supporting the index to oscillate at a high level. Short - term, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [26][28][29]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. The central bank conducted a 783 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish trend, but the upward space is limited [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean sowing progress is behind schedule. The domestic soybean - meal inventory is sufficient, and the possibility of a supply gap in China is greatly reduced with the increase in US soybean imports. It is not recommended to blindly go long on soybean meal, and future attention should be paid to the actual situation of US soybean imports and the weather in Brazilian production areas [4][33][35]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar mills are applying for opening, and the new sugar in Yunnan has a listed price. The market has optimistic expectations for the new - season sugar production in India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a long position in the 1 - 5 contract spread can be held [36][38][39]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are starting to be harvested. The futures price of the main contract has a small increase. The new - season red - date production is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shijiazhuang has issued a heavy - pollution weather orange warning and launched a level - II emergency response. Steel prices are oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach [42][44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Canadian prime minister said that China would not immediately cancel tariffs on Canadian goods. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has reached a two - year high. The oil market showed a differentiated trend, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided for rapeseed oil and palm oil [46][47][48]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in northern ports is stable. The coal price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter weather changes and November long - term contract policies [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The profit of domestic importers of cassava starch has increased. It is recommended to conduct band trading [50]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian iron - ore project has made new progress. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to maintain a weakly oscillating approach [51][52]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are rising. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices and pay attention to wheat auction policies [53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The supply surplus of alumina has narrowed. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the domestic lead - ingot social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Short - term, lead prices may remain strong, but chasing long positions requires caution [58]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc - mining project has started construction. The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [60][61]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Global investors are calling for the establishment of an international mineral institution. Chile's copper production has rebounded. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [62][63][65]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium - carbonate project in Hunan has started, and the output of an Argentine lithium project has tripled. Lithium - carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [66][68][69]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - producing company's output has increased. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [70][71][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Brazil's oil production has increased. Oil prices lack the power to rebound in the short term [74][75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventories in factories and social warehouses have decreased. Asphalt prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The spot price of methanol in Taicang has dropped significantly. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on rebounds [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply of caustic soda is relatively loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether supply will decrease due to profit compression [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased. The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of reserve and speculative demand in the medium term [82][83]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has adjusted slightly upwards. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space [84][85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China has increased, and the inventory of styrene in East China has decreased. The valuation of the pure - benzene industry chain is restricted, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase in East China's pure - benzene main port [88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventories have decreased slightly. The downward space of the soda - ash price in the short term depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity launches, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium term [90]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has increased slightly. The glass price is expected to have large fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US will suspend special port fees and additional tariffs for one year. The SCFIS (European route) has declined. The container - freight - rate market is expected to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities after a callback [93][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market strengthened overall, with long - term bond yields dropping significantly. The announcement of resuming treasury bond trading operations by the central bank governor, large - scale purchases of medium - and short - term bonds by major banks, the successful China - US summit, a loose capital situation, and lower - than - expected October manufacturing PMI data all boosted market sentiment [3]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend. The weak October manufacturing PMI further confirms the weak fundamentals, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading in the open market strengthens the market's expectation of monetary easing. The central bank's continuous use of various tools to inject liquidity is expected to keep the capital market loose. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, and the new regulations on the redemption fees of public bond funds have not been implemented, which will still cause some disturbances to the bond market. It is expected that the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds will range from 1.75% to 1.85% [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and long - term bond yields dropped significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.62% in the whole week. On Friday, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by 5.32bp compared with the previous Friday, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds decreased by 8.90bp, with the term spread widening significantly [4]. - On October 27th, the bond market was weak in the morning due to tightened capital and improved Sino - US trade relations. But after the central bank governor announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the market sentiment turned positive. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped 0.63bp, with the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.15% [4]. - On October 28th, after the news of the central bank's restart of bond - buying was confirmed, the market sentiment cooled slightly, but the bond market generally continued to be warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 2.44bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.25% [4]. - On October 29th, affected by the rumor that major banks were buying new bonds issued this year with a maturity of less than 3 years, the market speculated that there was still room for loose monetary policy. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened significantly, while long - term bonds were weaker. The yields of most major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly by 0.29bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.13% [4]. - On October 30th, boosted by the expectation of central bank bond - buying and loose capital, the bond market fluctuated and trended upwards. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 1.10bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.05% [4]. - On October 31st, due to continuous loose capital and lower - than - expected October manufacturing PMI data, the market sentiment was high, and the bond market continued to be warm. The yields of most major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 1.44bp, and the performance of the 10 - year futures main contract was mixed, rising 0.04% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 110 interest - rate bonds were issued, 3 more than the previous week, with a total issuance volume of 412.7 billion yuan, 663.6 billion yuan less than the previous week, and a net financing amount of 320 billion yuan, 235.3 billion yuan more than the previous week. There was no issuance or repayment of treasury bonds last week. The issuance volume and net financing amount of local bonds and policy - financial bonds both increased compared with the previous week [12]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. There was no treasury bond issuance. A total of 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an average subscription multiple of 3.78 times, and 88 local bonds were issued, with an average subscription multiple of 20.17 times [13]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In October, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, weaker than market expectations. This was mainly due to the simultaneous decline in manufacturing supply and demand under the combined influence of internal and external factors. The service industry PMI index in October was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly because the one - day increase in the long holiday in October drove up residents' travel demand. Looking forward, the manufacturing PMI index in November will still be in the contraction range, but it will rise slightly due to seasonality and policy support [15]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data declined, including blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, and daily hot - metal output. From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upwards, and most commodity prices rose, with steel and copper prices increasing, while crude - oil prices declined [16]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 900.8 billion yuan [26]. - Last week, both R007 and DR007 increased, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks decreased significantly, the direct - discount rates of national and joint - stock banks for various maturities continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly downwards [27][29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic commodities mostly rose first and then fell. Industrial products edged up, while agricultural products showed weak performance. Market risk appetite rebounded due to progress in China - US trade negotiations in the first half of the week, but the market was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the decline of the domestic stock market in the second half of the week. Precious metals led the decline [3]. - The commodity market will maintain a volatile trend with differentiation among varieties. Current macro - factors at home and abroad are mixed. The easing of China - US economic and trade relations boosts market risk appetite, and the increased economic downward pressure in the domestic fourth quarter opens a window for incremental policy. However, the Fed Chair's hawkish stance and uncertainties in future rate - cut paths, as well as unresolved US government shutdown issues and geopolitical uncertainties, may disrupt the market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **PMI and Its Influencing Factors** - **Review**: Domestic commodities mostly rose first and then fell. Industrial products slightly increased, and agricultural products were weak. The progress of China - US trade negotiations in the first half of the week drove up most commodities, while the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the decline of the domestic stock market in the second half of the week led to a weakening of most commodities, with precious metals falling sharply [3]. - **Overseas**: China and the US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, and the two sides reached a joint arrangement on economic and trade issues. The achievements mainly included tariff barrier reduction, relaxation of export controls, slowdown of targeted economic and trade games, and consensus on multi - field cooperation. The US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff, and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in October, but the Fed Chair's stance was hawkish. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept their policies stable [3]. - **Domestic**: The manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally and remained in the contraction range, indicating continued economic pressure in the fourth quarter. The decline may be related to factors such as the pre - release of some demand before the "National Day" holiday, the escalation of China - US tariffs, and slow policy implementation. In the future, the weakening of the PMI index shows a decline in market expectations and confidence, and policy support is needed. The central bank may continue to ease monetary policy, and the fourth quarter will see the advance release of next year's special bond and debt - resolution quotas [3]. - **Commodity Market Outlook**: The commodity market will maintain a volatile trend with differentiation among varieties due to the mixed macro - factors at home and abroad [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: The US has reached trade agreements with many major trading partners, including the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. Tariffs have been reduced to varying degrees, and there are also non - tariff terms such as procurement commitments and cooperation in various fields. For example, the tariff between the US and China has been reduced from 57.6% to 47.6%, and China will adjust counter - measures and suspend export controls for one year [10]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in October, but the Fed Chair's stance was hawkish, and the possibility of a December rate cut is uncertain. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, and the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Analysis**: The manufacturing PMI in October declined, was weaker than the seasonal level, and remained in the contraction range. The decline in real - estate sales growth and marginal weakening of exports may indicate a steeper economic downward slope. Policy support is needed, but considering the annual "GDP growth of 5%", the policy will be "moderately supportive" and more focused on laying the foundation for next year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and the polyester industry chain are presented in the high - frequency data. For example, on October 31, the operating rate of PTA was between 75% - 89% [39]. - **Real Estate and Automobile Sales**: The sales growth rate of 30 - city real estate in October turned negative, and data on automobile sales such as factory wholesale and retail are also provided [41]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: Data on the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, fruits, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices are shown [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a record high since 2012, indicating strong demand and potential investment opportunities in this segment [2][11] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is at 52.41, up 10.15% month-on-month [12][18] - M1 and M2 growth rate differences show a positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, with the difference at -1.2 percentage points in September 2025, improving by 1.6 percentage points [12][18] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for October is at 47.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points month-on-month [22][43] - Key commodity prices have shown varied movements, with rebar prices up 0.63% and cement price index up 0.23% [1][22] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for October is at 48.80%, down 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Major commodity prices include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 1.22%, and aluminum up 0.80% [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for October is at 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1021.39 points, up 2.89% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.43%, with the shipping sector performing best at +3.95% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical averages, and the PB ratio for steel stocks is expected to improve accordingly [4][22]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for October is at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion in the service sector [1][5] - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting overall stability in production and business operations [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for seven consecutive months, matching the longest stretch since August 2015 [2] - Key sub-indices such as production index (49.7%), new orders index (48.8%), and raw material inventory index (47.3%) all fell below the critical point, indicating weakened manufacturing activity [2][3] - The new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, reflecting reduced demand [3] Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively, continuing a downward trend for two months [3][4] - The decline in price indices is attributed to weakened downstream consumer demand and reduced upward pressure from upstream raw material prices [4] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating a recovery in service sector activity, driven by holiday effects [5] - Industries closely related to consumer travel, such as rail and air transport, showed strong performance with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in activity for three consecutive months, primarily influenced by the real estate sector [6] - Despite the decline, the business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, suggesting improved market outlook among construction firms [6] Policy Outlook - There are expectations for increased policy support to stabilize market conditions, with potential monetary policy easing on the horizon [7][8] - The anticipated impact of new policy measures, including significant financial tools for investment, may help the construction sector recover [7] Economic Trends - The ongoing demand contraction in the market is leading to an imbalance in the macroeconomic landscape, with supply exceeding demand [7] - Analysts emphasize the need for stronger counter-cyclical economic policies to stimulate demand and support business investment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The weak PMI in October is primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels negatively impacting production indices [2][68]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][68]. - The production index dropped significantly, falling to 49.7%, which is a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, marking a return to the contraction zone for the first time in six months [2][9]. - New orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating that while demand is weakening, it is not as severe as the production index [2][9]. Group 2: Causes of Weakness - The significant drop in the production index may be attributed to the retreat of the "rush production" effect, high inventory levels, and the nature of the PMI as a month-on-month indicator [2][14]. - In September, there was a temporary "stock-up rush" phenomenon, which led to a spike in production and inventory levels, but this created constraints for October's production capacity [14][68]. - The new export orders index fell sharply by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, the second-lowest point of the year, influenced by fluctuating tariff policies [3][69]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains resilient overall, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly affecting high-energy-consuming industries and construction [3][23]. - The PMI for high-energy industries dropped to 47.3%, reflecting strong pressure on real estate and infrastructure investment due to debt reduction efforts [3][23]. - The construction PMI also remains low, falling to 49.1%, but recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising by 3.6 percentage points [3][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent setbacks in manufacturing sentiment, the short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and proactive fiscal policies are being implemented [4][35]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience as external uncertainties ease and new policies are rolled out to support production and demand [4][35]. - Continuous monitoring of the marginal changes in manufacturing sentiment will be essential as the situation evolves [4][70]. Group 5: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 50.1%, indicating some recovery in the service sector, driven by holiday travel and pre-sales activities [5][51]. - The service sector PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points, with the employment index also improving, suggesting a positive trend in service-related employment [5][55]. - In contrast, the construction sector experienced a slight decline in PMI, although the new orders index saw a significant rebound, increasing by 3.7 percentage points [6][60].

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]