Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the tense Red Sea situation, the trade agreement between Europe and the United States, and significant retracement of commodity prices at high levels, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The market is in a state of intense long - short game, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Container Freight Indexes on July 28**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [1]. - **Container Freight Indexes on July 25**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [1]. - **Other Indexes on July 25**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI Indexes on July 25**: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [1]. - **Futures Market on July 28**: The closing price of the 2510 main contract was 1502.8, with a decline of 1.84%, a trading volume of 56,000 lots, and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 717 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4); the services PMI preliminary value was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2); the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [1]. - **China in June**: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - **US in June**: The Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the services PMI preliminary value was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a 2 - month low); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a 2 - month low) [1]. Market Events - The Houthi armed forces will upgrade their maritime blockade operations and launch the fourth - stage maritime blockade, targeting all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports [4]. - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products [4]. Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to partially take profits on the long positions established below 1300 in the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to take a light short position and monitor the subsequent market trend [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is dominated by a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limits for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [3]. - The margin requirements for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [3].

周五（7月25日）亚盘时段，欧元/美元保持疲软态势，欧元兑美元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，除获 利回吐对汇价构成了一定的打压外，美元指数在空头回补和良好经济数据的打压下走软也对欧元构成了 一定的打压。 欧元区与美国PMI指数延续此前分化趋势。欧元区7月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月的50.6升至51，高 于分析师预期的50.7，进一步站稳荣枯线50以上。这一增长主要得益于持续三年的制造业衰退接近尾 声，同时服务业出人意料地加速增长。但欧元兑美元小幅震荡下行。 另一方面，美国7月Markit制造业PMI初值下降至49.5，创2024年12月以来新低，也是去年12月以来的首 次萎缩，大幅不及预期的52.7，前值为52.9。其中，新订单指数初值降低至49.7，创去年12月以来新 低，扭转了之前的扩张趋势。7月Markit服务业PMI初值为55.2，创2024年12月以来新高，好于预期的 53，前值为52.9。其中，就业分项指数初值升至52.6，创1月份以来的新高，连续五个月扩张。Markit综 合PMI初值为54.6，创2024年12月以来新高，好于预期的52.8，前值为52.9。尽管制造业PMI低于50，但 ...

2025 年 07 月 25 日 锌：价格转弱 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23015 | 0.17% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2860 | 0.23% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 152003 | -21571 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10757 | -2783 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 134935 | -2956 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 188309 | 327 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -15 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -2.77 | 1.46 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨 ...

Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **July 18 - 21 Changes**: The NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points on July 21, down 5.75% from the previous period; SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [1]. - **July 18 Changes**: SCFI was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, Services PMI was 50 (2 - month high), Composite PMI was 50.2, and Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 0.2 [2]. - **China in June**: Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2]. - **US in June**: Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52, Services PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and Composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market Influences - Trump's tariff policy targeting Southeast Asian countries has increased trading difficulty, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate hikes. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August 1. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and spot freight rate adjustments [3]. - On July 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,700 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, an increase of 549 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300), and consider adding positions if it continues to decline. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [4]. - **Arbitrage**: In the context of international instability, the market has a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term**: Take profit when contracts rise, and wait for the market to stabilize after a decline before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - **Price Limits**: The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - **Intraday Position Limits**: The intraday position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Macro Overview - June PMI indicates weak internal momentum, with manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, and composite PMI at 50.7%, all showing slight increases of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The divergence in PMI reflects significant differences between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises showing improved conditions likely due to rising commodity prices[10] - Employment indicators and service sector PMI have declined, suggesting a slowdown in internal momentum[10] Market Performance - The equity market saw a volume decrease with an average trading volume of 1.4414 trillion CNY, down 45.3 billion CNY week-on-week[8] - Major indices performed as follows: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.40%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and ChiNext Index up 1.50%[8] - The bond market experienced a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to range between 1.6% and 1.7%[8] International Context - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%[8] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 80%, down from 98% prior to the non-farm report[8] - The U.S. Congress passed a significant tax and spending bill, which has reduced short-term concerns about fiscal sustainability[8] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of the economy and trade negotiations not meeting expectations[8] - The upcoming week will focus on key economic indicators, including June PPI and CPI, with expectations of -3.19% and 0.00% respectively[14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to operate in the negative range, but the long - term contract TC has improved, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has eased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, but domestic supply has tightened due to increased export intentions. The demand is seasonally weak, leading to low trading activity in the spot market. Social inventory remains stable at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the copper ore supply is expected to improve. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with a converging red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Copper is 80,540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,937 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 223,122 lots, down 861 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are 5,895 lots, down 8,048 lots. The LME copper inventory is 91,250 tons, up 625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 25,097 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,990 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,955 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 450 yuan/ton, up 885 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 116.30 dollars/ton, down 65.39 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000,000 pieces, up 68,000,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.21%, down 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.43%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 15.91%, up 0.0168. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.68, up 0.0444 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to May this year, the added value of large - scale light industry enterprises increased by 7% year - on - year, with an operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan. The retail sales of furniture products increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and that of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 30.2% year - on - year. In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 vehicles, up 11.9% year - on - year; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 vehicles, up more than 138% year - on - year; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 vehicles, up 4.44% year - on - year; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 vehicles, down 24% year - on - year; XPeng Motors' delivery volume was 34,611 vehicles, up 224% year - on - year. Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles, and NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 vehicles, up 17.5% year - on - year. The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy without Trump's tariff policy. He did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and most Fed members expect another rate cut later this year. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, still in the contraction range for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and the price - paid index approaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to port congestion and shipping companies' intention to raise price centers in late July, short positions can consider full profit - taking. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][3]. - The overall supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, but the SCFIS has continued to rise. The market should pay attention to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May and higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53 and higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategy - On July 1, the main contract 2508 closed at 1904.9, up 7.80%, with a trading volume of 68,800 lots and an open interest of 40,500 lots, an increase of 1248 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points). Short positions can consider taking profits. For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 and set stop - losses and take - profits [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%; the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%; the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. 3.4 Geopolitical Events - According to the Associated Press on June 29, US President Trump said he had no intention of extending the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions beyond July 9. Once the negotiation period expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [5]. - On June 30, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Egyptian Foreign Minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with the Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency [5].