Economic Performance - In June, the adjusted fiscal expenditure showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a slowdown in government spending since Q2[1] - High-frequency indicators revealed a weakening in real estate sales, with new home transaction area in 44 cities dropping to -17% year-on-year, down from -5.9% in May[1] - The manufacturing sector maintained resilience, with coking and blast furnace operating rates higher than the same period last year by 2.2 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively[1] Inflation and Commodity Prices - As of June 27, Brent oil prices increased by 6.1% month-on-month to $67.8 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3,288 per ounce[2] - Domestic raw material prices showed mixed performance, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 2.6% and 3.5%, while rebar and cement prices fell by 1.3% and 1.2%[2] Financial Market Trends - The LPR remained unchanged in June, with the central bank conducting two reverse repo operations totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating tight interbank liquidity[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in June reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 860.9 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Trade and Export Dynamics - Export growth showed a slight decline, with the year-on-year growth rate for exports from June 1-27 expected to decrease compared to May[1] - The trade surplus for May was reported at $103.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in exports to the U.S. by 34.5%[3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market during a State Council meeting on June 13[4] - On June 24, multiple departments jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, introducing 19 key measures[4]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical benchmark view on A-shares, citing the elimination of policy uncertainty and a decline in risk-free interest rates as factors that enhance market performance [4][11][13] - The tactical benchmark view on government bonds is upheld, with the report noting an imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, which limits the downward movement of interest rates [4][11][13] - The tactical allocation view on gold is downgraded to benchmark, as geopolitical tensions have eased and market risk appetite has rebounded, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][11][13] - A tactical underweight view on the US dollar is maintained, with concerns over fluctuating policies and persistent fiscal deficit issues impacting the dollar's credibility [4][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent market sentiment is stable, with expectations for economic recovery and a favorable environment for equity assets due to declining risk-free rates and high trading volumes [11][12] - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and improved China-US relations have boosted global risk appetite, suggesting structural opportunities within equity markets [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment limits the potential for significant downward adjustments in bond yields, as the market has already priced in the prevailing interest rate levels [11][12]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows seasonal decline, indicating stable domestic economic growth momentum[11] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages, suggesting steady economic performance[12] - Investment sector sentiment has declined, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly decreased by approximately -0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about -0.1%[2] - The June PPI is expected to decline by -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 4, 2025[11] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 27, 2025, is 2.20%, compared to the actual yield of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month stands at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

2025 年 6 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、铝、锌、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏 强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3928 和 3964 点，支撑位 3889 和 3872 点；IH2509 阻力位 2728 和 2750 点，支撑位 2697 和 2682 点；IC2509 阻力位 5771 和 5838 点，支撑位 5690 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - **PP**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - **Logs**: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].

// 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.65% 附近，较上日变化不大。 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 5093 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 5093 亿元，中标量 5093 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2035 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 3058 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行加力，资金面整体变化不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，仍位于 1.37% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.3% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 6. 国债期货收盘 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 30 年期主力合约涨 0.1% 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02% 5 年期主力合约持平 // 全 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic data for May 2025 in China shows structural differentiation, with consumption outperforming expectations while investment and exports weaken, leading to a steady slowdown in industrial production [2][11] - The automotive industry remains resilient due to improved consumer spending, despite a decline in retail sales growth [4][6] Core Insights and Arguments Industrial Production - In May 2025, the industrial added value growth rate was 5.8%, a slight decline from the previous month, influenced by a slowdown in exports [3] - Labor-intensive manufacturing saw a decrease in growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% [3] - Traditional infrastructure and real estate-related sectors, such as black metals and non-metallic mineral products, experienced weakened production [3] Consumption Data - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding market expectations and marking a new high for the year [5] - Categories such as home appliances and communication equipment showed significant growth, reflecting the release of policy dividends [5] - The automotive retail growth rate was only 1.1%, indicating a price contraction despite a sales growth of 11.13% [6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline to 3.7%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all weakening [7] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 11.1%, significantly dragging down overall investment performance [7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed slight recovery on the supply side, but demand remained weak, with both sales area and sales revenue declining year-on-year [8] - The price index for second-hand residential properties continued to show negative growth, although the rate of decline has narrowed [8] Price Levels and Inflation Risks - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, indicating a widening gap between the two [9] - The PPI for production materials saw an expanded decline, raising concerns about deflation risks and the impact of price levels on corporate profitability [9] Other Important Insights - The financial data indicates that while social financing growth remains resilient, credit expansion has not significantly started [12] - Government fiscal data shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure growth, with a notable increase in the fiscal deficit scale, reaching a six-year high [14][15] - The government’s reliance on non-tax revenue has decreased, with non-tax revenue turning negative for the first time since 2024 [14] - The employment market showed marginal improvement, with the urban unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 5.0% [9] Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape in May 2025 reflects a complex interplay of strong consumer demand against a backdrop of weakening investment and export performance, with significant implications for future economic policy and investment strategies [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

银河有色 有色研发报告 地缘方面，当前伊以双方在美国的介入下实现停火，冲突带来的避险快速回落。美国宏 观方面，尽管昨日的 PMI 数据表现出韧性，但美联储官员鲍曼和古尔斯比均暗示可能 在 7 月降息，令美元和美债收益率快速下行，对贵金属实现较好的支撑作用。整体来 看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来一定的溢价出清的压力，但市场后续的焦点可能重 新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险并未消除，美 联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预 计贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 【交易策略】 1.单边：以逢低做多思路为主。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：观望。 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金盘中宽幅震荡，最终收涨 0.01%，收报 3367.95 美元/盎 | ...