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回应市场关切!财政部答中证报记者问
Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of balancing risk prevention and economic development in fiscal policy, with sufficient room for future policy adjustments [2][3] - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 3.8% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a further increase to 4% this year, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [2][3] - A total of 19.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds has been allocated to support various projects, reflecting a strong commitment to infrastructure and development [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Investment - The government plans to innovate fiscal and tax policy tools to stimulate consumer spending and expand effective investment, highlighting the potential of domestic demand as a growth driver [3][5] - National fiscal spending on science and technology is expected to reach 5.5 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 34% increase from the previous plan, focusing on foundational and strategic research [5][6] - The implementation of tax reductions and subsidies for specialized small and medium enterprises has supported the growth of 14,600 "little giant" companies, enhancing the innovation landscape [5][6] Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Control - The government's total debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, indicating that the debt level is within a reasonable range and manageable [6][7] - Measures to address hidden debts and improve local government debt management are ongoing, with a focus on sustainable economic development [6][7] Group 4: Social Welfare and Public Spending - Over 70% of the national general public budget expenditure is allocated to social welfare, demonstrating a strong commitment to improving living standards [9] - The number of participants in basic pension insurance has exceeded 1.07 billion, and basic medical insurance coverage has reached 1.327 billion, showcasing the extensive social security system in place [9] Group 5: International Cooperation and Development - The Ministry of Finance has actively engaged in international financial cooperation, enhancing China's role in global sustainable development through various initiatives [10] - The government is committed to promoting multilateralism and global governance, focusing on infrastructure projects and investment systems under the Belt and Road Initiative [10]
8月信贷社融数据来了!刚刚 央行公布!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-12 12:13
Group 1 - The "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 continues to narrow, reaching 2.8% as of the end of August, the lowest since June 2021, indicating increased liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation [1][4]. - As of the end of August, the growth rates of social financing stock and M2 both remain high at 8.8%, reflecting strong financial support for the real economy [1][3]. - The increase in RMB loans for the first eight months of the year is 13.46 trillion yuan, with a loan growth rate of 6.8% as of the end of August [2][3]. Group 2 - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has provided significant funding support for resolving hidden debts, with nearly 1.9 trillion yuan issued this year, which may have a short-term downward effect on credit growth [2][3]. - The manufacturing sector has seen a notable increase in loan demand, with new loans for manufacturing accounting for 53% of new corporate loans, a significant increase from the previous year [2][3]. - Personal consumption loans have also increased due to seasonal demand and consumption promotion policies, indicating a rise in consumer loan demand [2][3]. Group 3 - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in August is approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year, while the rate for new personal housing loans is also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points [3][4]. - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has supported the growth of M2, with government bond issuance increasing significantly [3][6]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 "scissors difference" reflects improved liquidity and market confidence, with M1 growth at 6% as of the end of August [4][5]. Group 4 - Future monetary policy should focus on optimizing structure rather than just maintaining total growth, emphasizing the need for effective resource allocation and support for key sectors [6][7]. - There is a call for macro policies to address deeper issues and promote reforms in key areas, which can enhance long-term economic stability and short-term consumption [6][7]. - The macro policy framework is expected to remain consistent and stable, with a clear shift towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [7].
宏观经济周报:警惕预期兑现和风险共振-20250912
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-09-12 12:02
Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]
高质量完成“十四五”规划 | “十四五”时期国家财政实力持续增强、效能不断提升
Xin Hua She· 2025-09-12 11:45
"十四五"以来,赤字率从2.7%提高到3.8%,今年进一步提高到4%;创造性发行使用超长期特别国债, 用于"两重""两新";一次性安排6万亿元债务限额置换存量隐性债务,帮助地方极大减轻偿债压力,腾 出财力用于保民生、促发展…… 作为宏观调控的主要手段,"十四五"以来,财政政策始终保持积极取向,力度上更加给力,工具上更加 丰富,发力上更加精准,时机上更加灵活。 新华社北京9月12日电(记者申铖、刘开雄)财政部部长蓝佛安12日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四 五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上表示,"十四五"时期,国家财政实力持续增强,效能不断提升,财政作 为国家治理基础和重要支柱的作用进一步凸显。 "国家财政实力大大增强,集中财力办成许多大事要事。"蓝佛安说,一方面,收入"蛋糕"越来越 大。"十四五"时期,全国一般公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元,比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元,增长 约19%。地方财政实力稳步壮大,从2024年数据看,16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上;7个省 份超5000亿元,其中2个省份超1万亿元。 另一方面,支出强度前所未有。全国一般公共预算支出五年预计超过136万亿元,比"十三五 ...
南财快评|杨志勇:中国财政政策仍有较大发力空间
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize and promote economic growth, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of fiscal policies to economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal macro-control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has four key characteristics: increased strength, richer tools, more precise implementation, and greater flexibility in timing [3]. - The fiscal policy has shifted from being merely proactive to being more actively engaged, which is crucial for supporting stable and healthy economic development [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Cycle Management - The goal of macroeconomic regulation is to smooth out economic cycles, preventing significant fluctuations that could waste resources and impact social welfare [2]. - Cross-cycle regulation is increasingly important for finding new growth drivers for medium- to long-term development, especially in the context of China's evolving economic landscape [2]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - Effective fiscal macro-control requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, which enhances the overall effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [4]. - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds is an example of fiscal and monetary policy collaboration, expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Space and Debt Management - China's fiscal policy still has significant room for maneuver, with the fiscal deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," allowing for greater fiscal policy space [4]. - The government debt ratio in China is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% and the G7 average of 123.2%, indicating potential for further fiscal expansion [4]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Outlook - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains intact, supported by a vast market, which is expected to lead to increased fiscal revenues and enhanced fiscal strength [5]. - The ability to utilize fiscal policy effectively is improving, with a growing toolbox for macro-control, indicating a more forward-looking and targeted approach to fiscal policy [5][6].
财政部重磅发声:财政政策始终留有后手,未来财政政策发力空间依然充足|政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-09-12 11:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements and future directions of China's fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the strengthening of fiscal capabilities, proactive macroeconomic adjustments, and a focus on improving people's livelihoods [3][4][5][6][10]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength and Achievements - National fiscal strength has significantly increased, with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, a 19% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - General public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase, with a focus on optimizing the structure to support major development and livelihood projects [4]. - The fiscal policy has been actively adjusted to enhance economic stability, contributing to an average growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years, with a 30% contribution to global economic growth [5]. Group 2: Focus on People's Livelihoods - The fiscal budget allocates significant resources to education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security and employment (19.6 trillion yuan), healthcare (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan), totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan for livelihood investments [6]. - Initiatives such as 1 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 million yuan for free preschool education demonstrate a commitment to addressing public concerns [6]. Group 3: Risk Management and Reform - The government has implemented measures to manage local government debt, with nearly 50 trillion yuan allocated for transfers to local governments, ensuring stable fiscal operations [6][8]. - Fiscal reforms focus on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing efficiency, and clarifying responsibilities between central and local governments [7][16]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Global Engagement - The Ministry of Finance is actively involved in international financial cooperation, participating in over 26 multilateral and bilateral financial dialogue mechanisms, and promoting global economic governance reforms [8][42]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has reached 110 members and financed over 60 billion USD, showcasing China's commitment to global inclusive development [8]. Group 5: Future Directions - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance macroeconomic regulation, deepen fiscal reforms, and improve fiscal management to support the goal of building a modern socialist country [9][10]. - The focus will be on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and ensuring the sustainability of poverty alleviation efforts [20][23][38].
高质量完成“十四五”规划丨“十四五”时期国家财政实力持续增强、效能不断提升
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-12 10:52
作为宏观调控的主要手段,"十四五"以来,财政政策始终保持积极取向,力度上更加给力,工具上更加 丰富,发力上更加精准,时机上更加灵活。 新华社北京9月12日电(记者申铖、刘开雄)财政部部长蓝佛安12日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四 五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上表示,"十四五"时期,国家财政实力持续增强,效能不断提升,财政作 为国家治理基础和重要支柱的作用进一步凸显。 "国家财政实力大大增强,集中财力办成许多大事要事。"蓝佛安说,一方面,收入"蛋糕"越来越 大。"十四五"时期,全国一般公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元,比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元,增长 约19%。地方财政实力稳步壮大,从2024年数据看,16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上;7个省 份超5000亿元,其中2个省份超1万亿元。 另一方面,支出强度前所未有。全国一般公共预算支出五年预计超过136万亿元,比"十三五"时期增加 26万亿元,增长24%。同时,结构不断优化,更多"真金白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。 与此同时,"十四五"时期,财政宏观调控更加积极有为,推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 "十四五"以来,赤字率从2.7%提 ...
财政部:财政宏观调控实现很多新的突破
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 10:45
今天下午,国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。 财政部部长蓝佛安介绍,财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段,具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。"十四五"时期,财政宏观调控实现了很 多新的突破。 财政部部长蓝佛安介绍,在这一过程中,对财政宏观调控的规律性认识也在逐步深化。 "十四五"以来,财政政策始终保持积极取向,成为推动经济平稳健康发展的重要力量。 力度上更加给力。"十四五"以来,赤字率从2.7%提高到3.8%,今年进一步提高到4%;安排新增地方政府专项债券额度19.4万亿元;新增减税 降费及退税缓税缓费超10万亿元,财政政策空间进一步打开。 财政政策工具更加丰富。综合运用政府债券、税收、财政贴息、专项资金等工具,强化与其他宏观政策协同,放大政策乘数效应。比如,创造 性发行使用超长期特别国债,用于"两重""两新",支持全方位扩大内需。 财政政策聚焦畅通经济循环,发力上更加精准。比如,一次性安排6万亿元债务限额置换存量隐性债务,帮助地方极大减轻偿债压力,腾出财 力用于保民生、促发展。 财政政策出台时机更加灵活。抓住时间窗口,确保早落地、早见效。 再比如,加强财政与货币等政策协同,形成 ...
财政部:未来财政政策发力空间依然充足 将做好政策储备主动靠前发力
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-12 10:29
财政部:未来财政政策发力空间依然充足 将做好政策储备主动靠前发力 中新网9月12日电 国新办12日举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会,介绍"十四五"时期 财政改革发展成效。财政部部长蓝佛安在会上表示,财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展,始终留有后 手,未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 一是我国经济长期向好的趋势没有变,这决定了财政运行的基本盘始终是坚实稳固的。 二是这些年我们积累了越来越多的宏观调控经验,政策工具不断丰富,逆周期、跨周期调节能力大大增 强。 三是随着重点领域风险防范的制度机制进一步健全,以及存量风险逐步消化,财政应对未来挑战更有底 气、更加从容。这些都是做好财政工作的信心所在、优势所在。 蓝佛安表示,下一步,财政部门将继续保持政策连续性稳定性,增强灵活性预见性,加强对形势的前瞻 研判,做好政策储备,主动靠前发力,为经济社会高质量发展贡献财政力量。 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:徐世明 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwvie ...
财政“十四五”成绩单:民生投入近100万亿元!
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-12 10:16
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has made significant progress in fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing national fiscal strength and effectiveness, which supports the long-term stability of the party and the nation, as well as meeting the people's expectations for a better life [1] Fiscal Strength - The national general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Local fiscal strength is steadily growing, with 16 provinces projected to have fiscal revenue growth of over 20% compared to 2020, and 7 provinces exceeding 500 billion yuan, including 2 provinces surpassing 1 trillion yuan [2] - The general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan over five years, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on optimizing the structure of expenditures [2] Social Welfare Orientation - The budget for social welfare is substantial, with 20.5 trillion yuan allocated for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for health care, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security, totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan in social welfare investments [2] - In response to public concerns, the government has allocated 100 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 billion yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education [2] Fiscal Policy Characteristics - Fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance, effectively responding to short-term economic fluctuations while focusing on long-term modernization goals [3] - Key characteristics of the fiscal policy include increased strength, a richer set of tools, more precise targeting, and greater flexibility in timing [3] Future Considerations - The fiscal department plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, preparing for future economic challenges [4] - The long-term positive trend of the economy remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [3]