Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 124,150 yuan/ton and closed at 126,130 yuan/ton, a 2.00% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 235,469 lots, and the open interest was 67,717 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel jumped higher in the night session on Friday, then oscillated in a range after surging to near the previous high. On Monday, it rose in the morning session, faced resistance, and then oscillated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly [2]. - The news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban on Friday afternoon affected market sentiment. Although the bill will take effect five years after being signed into law, it has no substantial impact in the near term. The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel rose by about 2,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were correspondingly adjusted. The nickel price rebounded significantly during the day, and downstream buyers showed strong hesitation due to high prices. The overall spot trading volume of refined nickel was average, and most spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,222 (-204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 197,754 (84) tons [2]. Strategy - Affected by the news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the nickel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of nickel elements is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,765 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 116,932 lots, and the open interest was 116,190 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and rose in the night session on Friday and continued to rise in the day session on Monday, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [4]. - On May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released. The US promised to cancel the 91% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. This tariff adjustment has no impact on stainless steel and all stainless - steel products, mainly affecting some downstream products that use stainless steel [4]. - The US imposes a 45% import tariff on stainless steel products (excluding pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings) and tableware and kitchenware imported from China, a 70% import tariff on stainless - steel sinks and washbasins, machine endless belts, other woven fabrics, pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings, and a minimum 30% import tariff on other products (partially using stainless steel) before July 2025 [5]. - The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm. In the spot market, the stainless - steel market was strong, market confidence recovered, and the price was raised several times. Some traders had low inventories, and some merchants increased their replenishment efforts due to bullish expectations, resulting in active market trading. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 350 - 500 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 942.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Affected by the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the stainless - steel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of stainless steel is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Neutral [6]. - Inter - period: None [6]. - Cross - variety: None [6]. - Spot - futures: None [6]. - Options: None [6].

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-5-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美贸易谈判取得进展，关税大幅降低，权益市场走强，贵金属走弱，铜价冲高后有所回落，昨日伦 铜收涨 0.67%至 9502 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77820 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 10253 至 190750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 43.1%，Cash/3M 升水 23.9 美元/吨。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 黑色建材团队 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ，"虽然没有进行讨论，但我将大幅增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易 往来"。 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增 ...

5/12 以色列代表团将前往多哈进行停火谈判。以色列总理办公室12日发表声明说，以代表团将于13日前往卡塔尔首都多哈，同 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）就加沙地带停火协议进行间接谈判。声明说，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天同到访的美国中东问题 特使史蒂文·威特科夫和美国驻以大使迈克·赫卡比举行会谈，强调谈判将"只会在炮火下"进行。另据以色列媒体12日报道，哈 马斯当天在加沙地带南部的汗尤尼斯释放了具有美国和以色列双重国籍的被扣押人员艾丹·亚历山大。 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布, EC期货合约价格走势 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 EC远期曲线 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 -652 60 500 2510 75 2025/4/23 2025/5/12 2025/3/17 2025/4/7 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导航 | ...

5月13日，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.50%，深成指高开0.98%，创业板指高开1.29%，超4700家 公司上涨。 消费电子、港口航运等板块指数涨幅居前。成分股中，宁波海运（600798.SH）涨停，国航远洋 （833171）涨超9%，宁波远洋（601022.SH）、中远海控（601919.SH）、连云港（601008.SH）纷纷高 开。此前集运指数（欧线）主力合约日内涨超10%。 粤开证券则表示，从长期看，A股、港股将从集中定价关税冲突的阶段，逐步转向定价经济基本面的阶 段，外部冲击逐步减弱、科技叙事持续演绎加上国内政策持续发力，将会加速经济复苏进程，进而带动 A股、港股长期上涨。 消息面上，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》于昨日盘后发布，市场普遍认为关税的下降幅度和节奏明 显超市场预期。 景顺长城投研团队分析称，本次中美谈判的关税下调幅度大超市场预期，背后原因可能包括美国供应链 对中国的依赖，以及我国综合国力的提升。 市场风险偏好将提升 多家机构均认为会谈结果将提振市场短期风险偏好。中国银河宏观团队分析称，中美贸易谈判出现实质 性进展将显著提升市场对中国资产的风险偏好，关税的大幅下调也对中国经济基 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant market rally following the announcement of a mutual tariff reduction between the US and China, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 681 points or 3% to close at 23,549 [3] - The US stock market also showed positive performance, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 increasing by 2.81% and 3.26% respectively [2] - The overall trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 322.26 billion [3] Group 2: Company Performance - HSBC Holdings (00005) saw a rise of 2.9%, closing at 90 HKD; AIA Group (01299) increased by 2.7% to 63.2 HKD; Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) rose by 3.4% to 385 HKD [4] - Meituan (03690) experienced a 2.5% increase, closing at 144.5 HKD, while Xiaomi (01810) faced a decline of 1.5% due to controversy surrounding its front cover issue, closing at 50.6 HKD [4] Group 3: Economic and Industry Insights - Morgan Asset Management reported that the tariff reductions are expected to enhance short-term market risk appetite, with the US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [7] - Citigroup raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index to 25,000 points, reflecting a 2% increase, and projected a target of 26,000 points for the first half of next year, contingent on progress in US-China tariff negotiations [8] - The report identifies sectors vulnerable to tariff impacts, including communications infrastructure, hardware, solar energy, semiconductors, and industrials, while favoring domestic consumption sectors due to potential government stimulus measures [8] Group 4: Strategic Developments - The Chinese government is tightening controls on the export of strategic minerals, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and preventing illegal outflows, which could impact related industries [9] - The report notes that the new IPO market is becoming more active, with Bank of China Hong Kong reporting a sevenfold increase in new stock subscription numbers in the first quarter compared to the previous year [11]

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 关税利好下，煤焦冲高回落，短期仍偏弱 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 13 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 中美经贸高层会谈联合声明发布，双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，双方取消 4 月 7 号之后加征的关税，同时暂停实施 24%的对等关税。双方建立机制，继续就经贸 关系进行协商。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货偏弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1015 元/吨(-5)。活跃合约报 889.5 元/吨(+12)。 基差 145.5 元/吨 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 13 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 1.09%至 1065 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.63%至 302 美 金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 月度供需报告：旧作出口上调 0.25 亿蒲至 18.5 亿蒲，前值 18.25 亿蒲， 带动结转库存下调至 3.5 亿蒲（前值 3.75 亿蒲，预估 3.69 亿蒲），巴西及阿根廷产量 1.69 亿与 4900 万吨（前值 1.69 亿与 4900 万吨，预估 1.6917 亿与 4925 万吨），旧作 ...

重点品种： 原油，黄金，股指 原油： 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识，国际油价继续上涨。中美经贸高层会 谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91% 的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91% 的反制关税；美方暂停实施 24% 的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24% 的反制关税。国际油价盘中 一度上涨 4% 左右，但是有关伊朗核计划以及俄乌冲突的谈判使得制裁最终被取消的可能性依然存在， 随后油价脱离当日高点，收盘时涨幅急剧缩窄。关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 黄金： 阶段性关税缓和利好兑现，金银回落。昨日随着中美发表中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，税率 暂缓和下调的幅度要好于市场整体期待，金银延续回调。上周美英达成所谓首个贸易协定，英国将对美 商品关税从 5.1% 降至 1.8% ，美国则维持对英进口商品 10% 的统一关税不变，最终细节将在接下来几 周内敲定。 5 月利率会议上美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔多次提及未来失业率和通胀的上升风险，表明 持续的观望态度，短期内美联储难有明确表态，当前关注重心在贸易谈判进展和新的经济数据表现之 上。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐 ...

中金公司（601995）研报表示，中美会谈取得实质性进展，宣布缓解对彼此商品加征的关税。会谈结果 好于预期，市场风险偏好明显回升。短期来看，关税对于美国主要是供给冲击，对于中国主要是需求冲 击，经贸会谈结果意味着美国供给冲击缓解，中国需求冲击减弱。中金公司测算显示，最新美国有效关 税率将从此前的28.4%下降至15.5%，美国滞胀风险降低。最新关税下，中国出口下行风险得到较大缓 解，后续中国国内经济走势主要看宏观政策力度，尤其是财政政策力度。(人民财讯) ...