宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 延续改善、PPI 同比降幅走阔 5 月物价数据解读 2025年6月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 5 月 CPI 环比由涨转降至-0.2%(前值 0.1%),同比下降 0.1%(前值-0.1%), 过去五年(春节在1月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.3%,其中食品价格 环比下降 0.2%(前值 0.2%)、过去五年环比均值为-1.1%;非食品价格环比 下降 0.2%(前值 0.1%)，过去五年环比均值为 0。核心 CPI 环比由涨转平, 同比涨幅扩大至 0.6%,涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点。PPI 环比下降 0.4% (前值-0.4%），同比下降 3.3%(前值-2.7%），环比持平、同比降幅走阔 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The upcoming first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will boost market risk appetite and help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term. However, the decline in import and export growth rates in May, the year-on-year and month-on-month decline in CPI, and the larger decline in PPI compared to the previous period will, to some extent, suppress the short-term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On June 9, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly higher. IF2506 encountered resistance after rising and oscillated slightly stronger; IH2506 rebounded and then fell back, slightly declining; IC2506 and IM2506 also encountered resistance after rising and slightly increased [2]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month. In May, exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously [2]. Macro and Stock Market News - Politburo member and Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [4]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, exports (in RMB) increased by 6.3% year-on-year, down from 9.3% previously; imports decreased by 2.1%, compared to a 0.8% increase previously; the trade surplus was 743.56 billion yuan. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [6]. - China approves a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports and will continue to strengthen the review of compliant applications, and is willing to strengthen communication and dialogue on export control with relevant countries [6]. - At the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 3285.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6 billion US dollars from the end of April. The gold reserve was 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increase [7]. - Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis held talks in Paris, discussing issues such as the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles, China's anti - dumping case on EU brandy, and export control. The price commitment negotiation for the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage [7]. - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. Recently, global central banks have started a wave of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on June 5, the Indian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% on June 6, and the Russian central bank cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% on the same day [8]. - In May, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000 (the previous value was revised down to 147,000), higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The US resumed visa processing for international students at Harvard University. Four major overseas giants, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are bullish on China [8][9]. - On June 9, the A - share market oscillated and climbed. The ChiNext Index was strong, and innovative drug concept stocks led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% at the mid - day session to 3393.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.62%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%, the North Star 50 rose 1.08%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.55%, the Wind All - A rose 0.63%, the Wind A500 rose 0.31%, the CSI A500 rose 0.32%, and the half - day trading volume of A - shares was 838.618 billion yuan [9]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - It is expected that IF2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 3879 and 3890 points, with 3890 points being a strong resistance. The support levels are at 3855 and 3848 points, with 3848 points being a strong short - term support [3][10]. - It is expected that IH2506 will likely oscillate and consolidate during the day, with resistance levels at 2689 and 2699 points, and 2699 points being a relatively strong resistance. The support levels are at 2664 and 2653 points, with 2653 points being a relatively strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IC2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 5817 and 5850 points, with 5850 points being a strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 5725 and 5708 points, with 5708 points being a strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IM2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 6200 and 6250 points, with 6250 points being a relatively strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 6100 and 6077 points, with 6077 points being a strong support [3][13]. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IF in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 3933 and 3983 points, and support levels at 3750 and 3675 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IH in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 2750 and 2766 points, and support levels at 2600 and 2572 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IC in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 5853 and 5962 points, and support levels at 5508 and 5434 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IM in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 6332 and 6505 points, and support levels at 5844 and 5757 points [13][14].

新华财经北京6月9日电（记者安娜）5月份，随着我国促消费扩内需各项政策持续显效，价格呈现积极 变化，特别是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年最高点。 国家统计局9日发布的数据显示，5月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 "5月份，受季节性因素和油价下行影响，我国CPI延续低位运行态势，环比由涨转降，同比降幅持平于 上月。但在各项宏观政策协同发力下，供需结构有所改善，部分行业价格呈现积极变化，核心CPI同比 涨幅扩大，国内经济韧性凸显。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示。 除了核心CPI向好之外，5月份我国价格领域还有不少积极变化。据国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉 娟介绍，5月份，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；金饰品、家 用纺织品和文娱耐用消费品价格分别同比上涨40.1%、1.9%和1.8%，涨幅均有扩大；燃油小汽车和新能 源小汽车价格虽然分别同比下降4.2%和2.8%，但降幅均有收窄。同期，服务价格同比上涨0.5%，涨幅 比上月扩大0.2个百分点。服务中，交通 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GSSC Fundamental High - Frequency Index remained stable this week, with an increase of 0.1 points week - on - week and 5.0 points year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds was long, with a signal factor of 5.4% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase, while tire开工率 declined [1][9][16]. - In total demand, the decline in the real - estate sales high - frequency index narrowed year - on - year; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase; the year - on - year increase in the export high - frequency index narrowed; and the consumer high - frequency index maintained a stable year - on - year increase [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast remained at - 0.1%, and the month - on - month PPI forecast improved from - 0.2% to - 0.1% [1][10]. - The inventory high - frequency index showed a narrowing year - on - year increase; the transportation high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase; the financing high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remained Stable - The current GSSC Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 126.0 points (previous value: 125.9 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds was long, with a signal factor of 5.4% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Tire开工率 Declined - The industrial production high - frequency index was 125.5 (previous value: 125.4), with a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Electric furnace开工率 was 64.7% (previous value: 65.4%); polyester开工率 was 88.9% (previous value: 90.9%); semi - tire开工率 was 73.9% (previous value: 78.3%); full - tire开工率 was 63.5% (previous value: 64.8%); PTA开工率 was 78.6% (previous value: 77.6%); PX开工率 was 84.6% (previous value: 80.6%); and the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 47.6 tons (previous value: 47.3 tons) [1][9][16]. 3.3 Real - Estate Sales: New Home Sales Were Continuously Negative Year - on - Year - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 21.0 million square meters (previous value: 31.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 3.7% (previous value: 10.0%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt开工率 Rebounded - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index was 118.1 (previous value: 117.9), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous value: 1.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The开工率 of asphalt plants was 31.3% (previous value: 27.7%) [1][9][38]. 3.5 Exports: Container Freight Index for Exports Continued to Rise - The CCFI index was 1155 points (previous value: 1118 points); the export price index of Yiwu small commodities was 104 points (previous value: 108 points); the RJ/CRB index was 297.6 points (previous value: 292.3 points) [45]. 3.6 Consumption: Retail and Wholesale of Passenger Cars by Manufacturers Increased - The retail volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 95,364 units (previous value: 60,823 units); the wholesale volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 156,618 units (previous value: 75,923 units); the average daily box office was 82.57 million yuan (previous value: 34.35 million yuan) [57]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continued to Fall - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.7 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.3 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.4 yuan/kg) [66]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continued to Fall, Copper Prices Continued to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 609 yuan/ton (previous value: 611 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 64 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9720 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9650 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2455 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2466 US dollars/ton) [72]. 3.9 Transportation: Passenger Traffic Declined - The passenger traffic of the subway in first - tier cities was 36.66 million person - times (previous value: 39.01 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points) [82]. 3.10 Inventory: Aluminum Inventory Continued to Rise - The aluminum inventory was 165,000 tons (previous value: 138,000 tons); the soda ash inventory was 1.627 million tons (previous value: 1.613 million tons) [88]. 3.11 Financing: Local Government Bonds Declined, Credit Bonds Rebounded - The net financing of local government bonds was 5.05 billion yuan (previous value: 13.74 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 12.46 billion yuan (previous value: 5.12 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate was 1.08% (previous value: 1.10%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate was - 0.73% (previous value: - 0.73%) [99].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the impact of energy prices on CPI and the structural changes in supply and demand across various industries [1][4][5]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from previous increases [1][4]. - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI's decrease [4]. - The core CPI showed signs of recovery, indicating a gradual improvement in consumer demand due to supportive consumption policies [5][6]. PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][8]. - Factors contributing to the PPI decline include international input factors and a decrease in domestic energy and raw material prices [9]. - Certain sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing and new energy industries, showed signs of improved supply-demand relationships, with some prices stabilizing or recovering [10]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the PPI to remain in a bottoming phase for an extended period, while the CPI is projected to maintain low levels [12]. - The anticipated stabilization of international oil prices may reduce the downward pressure on CPI, although fluctuations in pork prices could introduce new challenges [13].

Group 1 - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year [1] - In May, the import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, growing by 2.7% [1] - In May, China's exports amounted to 2.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May dropped by 3.3% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Legislative Council's Committee on Home Affairs and Culture is set to hold a meeting to discuss proposals for regulating basketball betting [3] Group 4 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%, briefly returning to 3,400 points [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.62%, while the ChiNext Index grew by 1.22% [4] - The Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.01%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 2.30% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a slight decline in CPI and a continued low level of PPI, while noting improvements in certain sectors due to policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [1][5]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decrease [3]. - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetable supply increasing, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices [3][4]. - Accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][5]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which contributed significantly to the overall decrease [6][7]. - Despite the overall decline, some sectors showed positive price movements, particularly in consumer goods, driven by effective consumption-boosting policies [7][8]. - High-end manufacturing and technology sectors experienced price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 3.6% [8].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In May, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline remaining consistent compared to April [1] - The main factor contributing to the CPI decline was a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which impacted the CPI by approximately 0.47 percentage points [1] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with significant declines in fresh vegetable prices (down 8.3%) and a smaller increase in pork prices (up 3.1%) [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Future Outlook - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, reflecting a slight improvement compared to the previous month [3] - Future price trends may be supported by consumption-boosting policies, although potential negative impacts from the US-China tariff situation and "export to domestic" pressures should be monitored [3] - There is a possibility that the CPI may remain in negative territory in June, with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing price levels in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the drop widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1] - Some industries are experiencing improved supply-demand relationships, leading to price recoveries in certain sectors, particularly in consumer goods [4] - The future trajectory of industrial prices will largely depend on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies, especially those supporting the real estate sector [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][3] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decline in CPI [2] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry slightly decreased by 0.3% to 1.0% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4][5] - The month-on-month PPI decline was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices and a 3.5% decrease in refined oil product manufacturing prices [4] - Some sectors showed marginal price improvements, with consumer demand policies positively impacting prices in certain industries, such as a 12.8% increase in the price of arts and crafts and a 0.8% rise in footwear manufacturing [5]

金十数据6月9日讯，叠加上年同期对比基数走高等因素影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。但 从边际变化看，我国宏观政策加力实施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，一些领域价格呈向好态势。消费 新动能不断壮大带动生活资料等价格同比回升。提振消费相关政策持续显效，部分消费品需求释放带动 相关行业价格回升。生活资料价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为持平。高端装备制造等产业发展带动相关 行业价格同比上涨。产业发展高端化、智能化、绿色化转型稳步推进，高技术产品需求扩大，相关行业 价格同比上涨。 国家统计局：PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点 部分行业供需关系有所改善 ...