Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Release Date: July 25, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factors realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [8]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream and mid - stream is decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price difference is neutral. Import profit is around - 500, and export is good. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract may face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [8]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening. Attention should be paid to commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 increased by 51 to 2468, and the price of华南现货 increased by 43 to 2448. The主力基差 decreased by 8 to - 20, and the盘面MTO profit remained unchanged at - 1237 [2]. Plastic Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained at 820. The price of华北LL increased by 50 to 7230, and the price of华东LL decreased by 10 to 7315. The主力期货 price increased by 97 to 7385 [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of山东丙烯 decreased by 50 to 6250. The price of华东PP increased by 10 to 7100, and the主力期货 price increased by 85 to 7181 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of西北电石 remained at 2250, and the price of山东烧碱 remained at 842. The price of电石法 - 华东 decreased by 10 to 5060, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 10 to - 80 [10][11].

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 郑商所硅铁主力合约触及涨停，涨幅为7.01%，现报6166元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has reached the daily limit, trading at 80,520 yuan per ton, reflecting a price increase of 7.97% [1] Group 1 - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant upward movement, indicating strong demand or market speculation [1] - The current price of 80,520 yuan per ton marks a notable increase, suggesting potential profitability for traders [1] - The mention of "T+0, two-way trading" privileges indicates a flexible trading environment that could attract more investors [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has increased by over 6%, currently priced at 1236 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen an increase of 7%, currently priced at 79,800 yuan per ton [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 25 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.17%，收 | | | | | 于2314元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日现货主线稳定、局部涨跌调整。南北港口价格北稳南弱，锦州港主流收购价 | | | | | 2290-2305元/吨，较前一日涨5元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2440元/吨，较前一日跌1 | | | | | 0元/吨。昨日深加工企业收购价弱稳为主。东北地区深加工企业收购价2257元/吨， | | | | | ；华北地区企业主流收购价2483元/吨，较前一日跌1元/吨。 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate has increased by 6.00% in a single day, currently priced at 79,160 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - PTA: Recently, PTA devices have been operating stably, and a new device of Sanfangxiang has been put into production. However, polyester sales volume increased significantly yesterday, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories has been relieved. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost in the short term, and the basis will run weakly. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port has been concentrated. It is expected that the visible inventory will moderately recover early next week. Attention should be paid to the weather changes and the unloading progress of ships during the week. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance from July to August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Driven by the tightening of the supply side and the good macro - atmosphere, the price center of ethylene glycol will mainly run strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery progress of overseas devices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The futures price of PTA fluctuated and rose yesterday. The macro - atmosphere was warm. Under the low processing margin, the maintenance of PTA devices increased. The market inquiry atmosphere improved slightly. The spot basis was weak. The current mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 0. The spot price is 4810, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 40, with the futures price at a premium. The inventory of PTA factories is 3.99 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 days. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract has changed from short to long [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol was strong, and the basis weakened significantly at the end of the session. The night - session of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward. The spot price was around a premium of 61 - 64 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. During the day, ethylene glycol adjusted at a high level, and the follow - up of buyers in the market was poor. At the end of the session, ethylene glycol rose slightly to around 4560 - 4565 yuan/ton. The high - level spot basis weakened rapidly, and the low - level transaction was around a premium of 50 - 55 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the center of the outer market of ethylene glycol moved upward. The negotiation of recent shipments was around 530 - 536 US dollars/ton, and the follow - up of some suppliers' buying was okay. The spot price is 4529, and the basis of the 09 contract is 44, with the futures price at a discount. The total inventory in East China is 46.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52 tons. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is short, and the short position has increased [6][7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [11]. - **Price Data**: On July 24, 2025, compared with July 23, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 567.38 US dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 842 US dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4820 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4540 yuan/ton, etc. [12]. - **Inventory Data**: It includes the inventory data of PTA factories, ethylene glycol ports in East China, PET slices, and polyester products such as polyester staple fiber and polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][44]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It includes the operating rate data of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - **Profit Data**: It includes the profit data of PTA processing, ethylene glycol production by different methods, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][64].

大宗商品研究 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡走高，最终报收 2480（+50/+2.06%）。 【重要资讯】 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 本周(20250718-0724)中国甲醇产量为 1898825 吨，较上周增加 29100 吨，装置产能利 用率为 83.98%，环比涨 1.56%。 甲醇日报 【逻辑分析】 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2050 元/吨，北线报价 2020 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2080 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2120 元/吨，河南地区报价 2200 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2280 元/吨，鲁北报价 2280 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2220 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，云贵报价 2200 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2460 元/吨，宁波报价 2450 元/吨，广州报价 2430 元/吨。 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回升，需求尚可，原料煤价格反弹，西北 主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 650 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定， 国内供应持续宽松 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Natural rubber [1] - Report period: Weekly [1] - Date of composition: July 19, 2025 [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The natural rubber market is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term [3] Group 3: Core View - In the short - term, natural rubber may maintain a strongly volatile trend, affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, rainfall in production areas, and inventory changes [3][11] Group 4: Summary by Sections Spot Analysis - Heavy rainfall in Hainan, China has hindered rubber tapping work, and the daily rubber collection volume on the whole island is lower than the same period last year [9] Market Situation - Recently, the macro - sentiment is positive. Rainfall interference in upstream production areas has increased, resulting in reduced output. Demand is weak, and inventory has started to decline slightly [11]