Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, marking the third consecutive time it has refrained from adjusting rates after a series of cuts in the previous year [1][2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve and stated that the current policy is appropriately restrictive, indicating that President Trump's calls for rate cuts will not influence their decisions [1][2] - Despite a contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter, April's consumer and employment data suggest resilience in economic growth, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2][3] Group 2 - Inflation indicators show that the March CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 2.8%, both below market expectations [3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, still above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted an increase in uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with risks of high unemployment and inflation both rising [3][5] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that short-term inflation may rise due to tariff impacts, but falling energy prices and unstable demand could alleviate inflationary pressures [4][5] - Powell expressed concerns about the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their potential long-term effects on economic growth and inflation [5][6] - The current economic outlook indicates that the Fed may not need to cut rates immediately, but the ongoing uncertainty could lead to a future rate cut [6][7]

1、摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）对全球一系列金融和政治风险保持警惕。 2、戴蒙表示，由于利差较低，信贷目前是一个严重的风险，盈利预期可能会下降。 该行将允许客户交易比特币，但戴蒙表示他仍然"不太支持"、他仍然"不喜欢"比特币。 仍对高通胀和滞胀保持警惕，通货膨胀和滞胀的可能性比大多数人预想的要高。 地缘政治风险（戴蒙过去经常关注的问题）仍然非常高。 ...

摩根大通(JPM.N)CEO戴蒙：不会排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of East Asian currencies, particularly the New Taiwan Dollar, against the backdrop of optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and the weakening of the US dollar [1][2][5]. Currency Performance - During the May 1 holiday, East Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar, and South Korean Won, collectively appreciated, with the New Taiwan Dollar rising over 9% in two trading days [1]. - The offshore Renminbi also showed strength, surpassing the 7.19 mark for the first time since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Context - The strengthening of East Asian currencies is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar and the trade surpluses maintained by economies like South Korea and Taiwan, which have accumulated significant dollar assets [2][5]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with the index falling below 100 due to concerns over "stagflation" risks and uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [2][3]. US Economic Indicators - The US GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of -0.3%, which was below market expectations, indicating economic slowdown [2][4]. - Consumer confidence in the US has also dropped, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [3]. Investment Trends - Private investment in the US showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.9%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to GDP, largely driven by inventory accumulation [3][4]. - However, as the "reciprocal tariffs" take effect, the support from inventory for GDP is expected to weaken in the second quarter [3]. Trade Deficits - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with significant deficits against East Asian countries, particularly China, Mexico, and Vietnam [6]. - Taiwan's trade surplus is bolstered by its competitive advantages in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, which constitute a large portion of its exports [10]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the US economy is likely to slow down but not enter a recession, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a cautious approach regarding interest rate changes [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for the Renminbi remains positive due to strong domestic policies and economic resilience, while the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend amid favorable conditions [16].

美联储观望：数据迷雾中的决策困境面对复杂局面，美联储在5月会议上选择按兵不动。主席鲍威尔坦 言，关税走向的不确定性令政策制定陷入被动，需"每周评估新信息"。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克强调，在 通胀高企与劳动力市场放缓的夹击下，保持政策定力成为无奈之选。利率期货市场显示，6月维持利率的 概率高达86%，而7月降息25基点的预期升至60%。 市场启示：短期平静与长期风暴今夜数据或呈现"暴风雨前的平静"——住房成本回落暂时缓和通胀压力， 但汽车等领域的提前消费已暴露市场焦虑。随着企业补库周期进入尾声，夏季或迎来物价的阶梯式攀升。 这场关税与通胀的博弈中，政策制定者不仅需平衡短期数据波动，更要应对全球供应链重构带来的长期成 本压力。 Central Bank Watch: 7 May 2025 Fed & BoE Rate Decisions Take Center Stage Focus 1: Will the Fed Signal a Policy Pivot? Market Consensus: Rates to hold steady, but June easing bets rise Focus 2: BoE ...

近期,黄金价格连续大幅调整,国际黄金市场宛如坐过山车,引发市场一片哗然。作为在金融领域拥有丰富 经验与深厚专业积淀的高地集团,时刻紧盯着黄金市场的动态,下面将深入剖析当前市场行情,并对后续走 势作出展望。 市场超跌反弹 全球央行持续购金、地缘风险与经济不确定性共同支撑金价。2025 年一季度,全球央行净购金 244 吨,中 国等新兴市场出于 "去美元化" 等战略需求持续增持,夯实价格底部。地缘方面,中美技术竞争、俄乌及印 巴等热点问题仍存变数,避险需求或助推金价上涨。经济层面,美国 "滞胀" 风险与全球复苏失衡加剧通胀 预期,只要通胀上升、实际利率承压,黄金便具备上涨动能,高盛等机构的乐观预测也证实了这一趋势。 通胀预期与经济前景不确定性的支撑 美国经济当前存在 "滞胀" 隐忧,经济增速放缓的同时,通胀压力并未完全消除。虽然目前通胀数据表现相 对温和,但未来随着关税效应的逐步显现以及全球经济复苏的不平衡,通胀可能再度抬头。一旦通胀回升, 实际利率将下行,持有黄金的机会成本降低,而黄金的抗通胀属性将使其吸引力大增。同时,经济前景的不 确定性也使得投资者寻求资产保值增值的需求更为强烈。在这种背景下,黄金作为一种具 ...

Core Insights - Renowned economist Peter Schiff discusses the interconnectedness of consumer debt, government borrowing, and the unsustainable dominance of the US dollar, highlighting implications for economic security, inflation, and the gold market [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumer Debt and Behavior - Consumers are increasingly under financial pressure, leading to reckless borrowing behavior as bankruptcy becomes inevitable [1] - Individuals in debt may prioritize borrowing over repayment, engaging in refinancing and using credit cards without intention to repay [1] Group 2: Dollar and US Treasury Market - Schiff identifies a growing bubble in the dollar and US Treasury market as the root cause of trade imbalances and the decline of US manufacturing [2] - He criticizes policymakers for misattributing the causes of economic issues to foreign "cheating" rather than recognizing the underlying dollar bubble [2] Group 3: Banking System Vulnerabilities - The US banking system is vulnerable in a stagflation scenario, which has not been adequately tested by the Federal Reserve [2] - Schiff argues that the Fed's stress tests fail to account for rising inflation and interest rates during economic downturns, potentially leading to widespread bank failures [2] Group 4: Central Bank Asset Allocation - Central banks are selling off dollars and US Treasuries while increasing their gold holdings, a trend that Schiff believes is still in its early stages [2][3] - He predicts that gold prices will rise significantly as this trend continues, with a target of $4,000 or higher [3] Group 5: Long-term Economic Implications - The US has relied on the dollar's status as a global reserve currency to maintain a lifestyle beyond its production and savings capabilities [3] - Schiff warns that as the world moves away from the dollar, Americans will need to adopt more sustainable habits of production and saving rather than consumption and borrowing [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 截止到5月中旬，美国进口商品的平均关税税率已经降至16%左右，但仍处历史高位。目前已进入数据验 证期，如何观察美国的"抢进口"动能和"滞胀"压力？本文提出了一个监测框架。 热点思考： 美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架 一、关税冲击进入数据"验证期"，如何监测其经济影响？三大维度：贸易、价格、风险偏好 关税冲突虽有缓和，但美国税率仍处历史高位。 5月12日以来，美国对华进口平均关税税率降至42%，总 体平均税率降至16%，但仍处于历史高位。耶鲁大学预算实验室的测算认为，该关税或使美国GDP下降 0.65个点，通胀上升1.7个点。所以，"滞胀"是基准假设。 关税对美国经济的传导，可从贸易（数量）、价格、风险偏好三个维度进行监测。 1）贸易方面，关税 冲击体现为美国进口先增后减（抢进口）、出口受抑，并影响国内需求；2）价格方面，关税将由进口价 格传导至生产和消费价格，抑制实际消费需求；3）风险偏好方面，关税推升政策不确定性，影响金融压 力、美元指数，进而降低居民消费意愿、企业投资意愿。 二、短期内，应该关注哪些核心经济指标？进口、库存和通胀压力 一季度，美国开始抢 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 在一片上涨中，黄金成为了少数下跌的例外。 自2025年5月12日以来，美股迎来了一波反弹，标普500指数和纳斯达克期货分别上涨了5.27%和7.15%，美元指数也突破了101，人民币兑美元的汇率最低更 是跌破了7.18。但黄金却在这一波涨潮中逆势下行，COMEX黄金价格一度跌至3123.3美元/盎司，跌幅达4%。 这一切背后，最大的推手是中美两国在关税战中的博弈终于有了转机，市场的风险偏好明显上升，避险情绪减弱，但这一影响受限于90天的临时性协议期 限。黄金作为传统的避险资产，受到了明显的压力。 除此之外，短期内的超买状态也引发了技术性调整——根据CFTC数据显示，4月黄金非商业净多头头寸达到了历史峰值38.2万手，较五年均值高出47%；另 外，地缘冲突的缓和也是一个因素。 事实上，这已经不是黄金今年第一次出现回调。2025年一季度，COMEX黄金价格上涨了20%，一度触及3509.9美元/盎司的历史高点，随后就开始了震荡下 行，回撤幅度一度超过了11%。 问题来了，黄金究竟还要跌多久？会一直跌下去吗？ 中期交易美国滞胀 短期来看，黄金价格的走势已经脱 ...