于是，"血流成河"，又上演了一场经济学的公开课。没有只涨不跌的周期，也没有"这一次不一样"的例外。每一次都一样，成败皆贪婪，涨跌皆泡沫。 这是一次技术性回调，还是黄金牛市的终结，人们莫衷一是。因为谁也预测不了明天，特别是"黑天鹅"乱飞的当下。 所以，美元弱势和黄金牛市，是一个生态位上的跷跷板。美元指数不断走低的过程，恰是黄金价格不断走高的过程，因此一旦弱势美元的政策偏好生变， 美国重新寻求强势美元，那黄金牛市毫无疑问将受阻。 任何政策都有利有弊，没有完美的政策，可以一劳永逸解决所有问题。所谓好的政策，都是解决部分时期的部分问题。弱势美元的"好处"是一方面，但带 来的副作用就是美债收益率不断上升，美国政府的利息负担越来越重，债务危机如影随形。 特别是，弱势美元所导致的美元地位的下降，也在全球导致了进一步去美元化。全球央行持续购金，再加上近年来地缘政治风险劣化加剧，这构成了支撑 黄金牛市的另一种力量。 黄金成了新的修罗场。 1月30日，黄金价格经历了踩踏式的暴跌，并且是过山车式的暴跌。现货黄金价格在势不可挡攀至5600美元之际，便以迅雷不及掩耳之势下坠，一度跌至 4700美元之下，最终当日跌幅超过9%，创下40多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Macro - finance: Index futures are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass recommended to buy on dips [1][8]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel for observation; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound fluctuations [1][10][12][14]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary observation; soda ash for temporary observation; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - range fluctuations [1][17][19][20]. - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn for shock adjustment; apples and jujubes for shock operation [1][26]. - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs for rebound - based short - selling opportunities; eggs for hedging post - festival contracts on rallies; corn for cautious chasing of highs and hedging on rebounds; soybean meal for shorting on rallies; oils for strong - range fluctuations [1][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by a variety of factors such as geopolitical situations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and products show different trends and characteristics. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, risks need to be carefully considered. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices of copper and aluminum are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and investors are advised to observe; in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC may have long - term low - buying opportunities, while caustic soda is under pressure in the short - term [10][12][17][19]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the Fed chairman and China's PMI data, they are expected to move in a range in the short - term and are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds: With no obvious major negative factors in the bond market, they are expected to move in a range, but the downward space of bond yields is limited [5]. Black building materials - Coking coal: The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although the price has increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient, recommended for short - term trading [8]. - Rebar: The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of the electric furnace and lower than the flat - electricity cost. With low inventory and small supply - demand contradictions, it is expected to move in a range [8]. - Glass: Although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level, recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by geopolitical and Fed chairman nomination factors, the price has fluctuated sharply. With tight supply and weakening demand, it is expected to move in a wide range, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - Aluminum: With the pressure on bauxite prices and the increase in alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the approaching of the demand off - season, it is expected to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [12]. - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price has risen, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [14]. - Tin: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and the downstream consumption maintaining rigid demand, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, recommended for range trading [15]. - Gold and silver: Affected by the nomination of the Fed chairman, the prices have corrected, but the medium - term price centers are expected to move up, and they are expected to continue to adjust in a range [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Affected by factors such as supply and demand and mine risks, it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [17]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation, it is possible that the bottom has been reached. It is recommended to have a long - term low - buying idea, pay attention to policies such as export tax rebates and cost fluctuations [17]. - Caustic soda: With weak demand and high supply, there is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - Styrene: Although it has rebounded due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, the valuation is high, recommended to be cautious about chasing highs, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - Rubber: Affected by seasonal supply reduction and weak demand support, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a possibility of further decline [21]. - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand for compound fertilizers, the price is expected to move in a range, and attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [22]. - Methanol: With the reduction of domestic supply and weak downstream demand, the price in the inland market is relatively weak, while the price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [23]. - Polyolefins: With increasing supply, decreasing demand in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [24]. - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and rising production costs, the price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [25]. Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the price has adjusted after a high - level shock, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and optimistic in the long - term [26]. - Apples and jujubes: The market is generally stable with weak trends, and the price is expected to move in a shock [26][29]. Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game, recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts; in the medium - to - long - term, the price is cautiously bullish, and the industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [29][30]. - Eggs: With low basis and high valuation, it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies, especially the 05 and 06 contracts considering the supply pressure shift [31]. - Corn: In the short - term, the price is supported by supply - demand balance; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [32][33][34]. - Soybean meal: In the short - term, the M2603 contract is expected to move in a range; the 05 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [34]. - Oils: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to correct but with limited amplitude, recommended to take rolling profit on previous long positions and wait to go long on dips [35][40][41].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 上周四以来，黄金持续调整，特别是周五Comex黄金期货主力合约大跌8.35%，创近40年来最大单日跌 幅。分析人士认为，短期来看，"沃什交易"的演绎以及获利回吐的压力或使黄金处于震荡行情，但支撑 金价上涨的长期叙事本质上并没有改变，震荡之后有望迎来新一轮上涨。 上周前半段，黄金继续高歌猛进，1月29日再创历史新高：伦敦金现货最高触及5598.75美元，Comex主 力合约最高摸至5626.8美元，但当天两者即双双回调，周五迎来大跌。分析人士指出，造成此次金价回 调有多方面的原因，包括获利盘止盈平仓、美联储新主席人选公布等。 宏源期货分析师王文虎对智通财经表示，倘若沃什计划实施的"降息+缩表"策略成功，那么美国经济将 保持强劲增长，美元走强，黄金则将转入熊市。倘若该策略未能成功，那么美国经济可能出现衰退，美 国未偿公共债务膨胀将削弱美元信用，或使黄金价格先弱后强。 不过，分析师认为，沃什胜选只是黄金大跌的一个导火索，更主要的原因还是在于获利了结压力较大， 加上交易所上调保证金引发的高杠杆资金平仓，导致抛压集中释放。 ...

2026年2月2日，全球贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡，打破了此前持续数月的强劲上涨格局。近期以来，受全 球地缘政治不确定性上升、美联储持续释放降息信号、全球央行大规模增持黄金以及工业需求攀升等多 重利好因素共振，国际贵金属价格迎来历史性上涨行情，黄金价格一路高歌猛进，在1月29日创下 5598.75美元/盎司的历史峰值，COMEX黄金价格最高更是触及5626.8美元/盎司，2026年以来最大涨幅 已逼近30%;白银价格同步走强，沪银主力合约创下30444元/千克的历史新高，国际白银价格站上90美 元/盎司关口，年内涨幅超23%。市场看多情绪达到阶段性顶峰，黄金ETF、白银期货持仓量均创下历史 新高，大量资金持续流入贵金属市场，不少机构纷纷上调贵金属长期目标价，看好其避险与增值潜力。 然而，2月2日这一持续向好的态势被彻底逆转，黄金、白银价格迎来断崖式回调，单日跌幅均超3%， 成交量大幅放大，市场恐慌性抛售情绪集中释放，短期市场格局发生根本性转变，成为2026年贵金属市 场最具标志性的波动事件之一。 从当日市场具体表现来看，伦敦金现开盘报5598.75美元/盎司，开盘后便快速下挫，盘中一度跌破5400 美元/盎司关口 ...

近年黄金多了两个避险用途。 第二个是规避美国政府胡作非为。二战后国际政治、经济、贸易、货币秩序，原本是由美国主导建立起 来的，但是美国总统特朗普第二任期的所作所为颠覆了美国盟友和敌人的三观，美国不再是国际秩序的 锚定。为了自身的利益，甚至只作为极端施压的筹码，美国可能像冻结俄罗斯资产那样冻结曾经盟友的 资产。特朗普也许可以赢下格陵兰岛，却输掉了美国在世界上的信用。 本世纪初欧洲央行和主权基金大规模抛售黄金，理由是没有利息；如今他们却大手买进，理由是不受地 缘政治冲击。四大避险用途合在一起，汇流出不同国家、不同主体、不同诉求的共同需要。笔者认为， 黄金不再是另类投资，而是新的货币和地缘政治环境下必须配置的资产种类。 特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席，任命需得到参议院投票确认。其实特朗普瞩意的候选人一直只有 两位，白宫首席经济顾问哈塞特和美联储前理事、现任斯坦福大学教授沃什。哈塞特是特朗普理念的坚 定落实者，也是新主席的首选，但是白宫对美联储现任主席鲍威尔的司法调查，堵死了哈塞特得到参议 院批准的大门。贝莱德固收主管里德尔一度成为热门，他对降息和扩表的理念接近特朗普，但其长期向 民主党捐款的背景令特朗普却步。 特 ...

芝商所在声明中表示，此次保证金比例上调将分两阶段实施，2月2日起先上调15%，2月5日起完成剩余 5%-10%的上调，覆盖黄金、白银所有期限的期货合约。声明强调，上调保证金并非看空贵金属市场， 而是基于当前市场高波动环境的审慎调控，后续将根据市场走势动态调整保证金比例，保障市场平稳运 行。 业内分析认为，芝商所上调保证金将直接抑制贵金属期货市场的杠杆交易，缓解市场波动幅度，但短期 内可能导致投机资金撤离，进一步压制金价、银价走势。机构人士表示，当前贵金属市场的核心矛盾仍 是美联储政策预期，若沃什顺利当选美联储主席，鹰派货币政策可能持续，贵金属长期承压；但地缘政 治紧张局势及全球去美元化趋势，仍为贵金属提供长期支撑。业内提醒，普通投资者应理性看待市场波 动，避免盲目抄底，合理控制仓位风险。 AI生成 据悉，此次保证金上调源于近期贵金属市场的剧烈震荡。2月1日前，受特朗普提名鹰派人物凯文·沃什 为美联储主席候选人影响，全球贵金属遭遇恐慌性抛售，现货黄金单日暴跌13%，白银单日跌幅超35% 创历史纪录，伦敦金现货价格一度跌破4885美元/盎司。尽管2月1日黄金出现技术性反弹，较前日低点 回升约4%，但市场恐慌情绪尚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization. The trends of de - dollarization and reserve diversification continue. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts and a relatively significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU and Silver AG Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals is due to sovereign funds' choices in the de - dollarization context. De - dollarization and reserve diversification trends are ongoing. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have risen notably while US gold warehouse receipts have fallen notably, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have plunged [2][3] Fundamentals - The US released a defense strategy report, prioritizing homeland security and its interests in the Western Hemisphere. The US military convened generals from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen anti - drug military cooperation. Trump said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement. US media reported that the US is signaling negotiations with Iran, and the two sides may meet in Turkey. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in its January meeting, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range and said that if tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, it indicates that policy can be loosened. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, expecting him to push for rate cuts. The White House is confident that Warsh's nomination will be quickly confirmed [2][3] Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US Treasury took initial steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The US released a defense strategy report and strengthened anti - drug military cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. The US is pressuring Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies and discussing similar actions in other countries. The Trump administration is considering a naval blockade on Cuba's oil imports. Trump said the US obtained oil from a seized Venezuelan oil tanker. The Japanese yen suddenly rose nearly 200 points, and Japanese officials are closely monitoring the foreign exchange market. Trump increased the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25%. The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes, and some officials supported rate cuts. South Korea is expected to discuss a $350 billion investment program with the US. Trump will announce the Fed chairman nominee and called for a 2 - 3 percentage - point rate cut. Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week ceasefire in parts of Ukraine. Iran will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU listed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization". The US Treasury did not list any economy as a currency manipulator. The World Gold Council said that central banks' net gold purchases in Q4 were 230 tons, and strong gold demand in 2026 is expected to continue. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US government entered a partial "shutdown" state, but the House Speaker is confident to end it. SpaceX applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network [7] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 122,450, and the short - position is 35,978. The 5 - day change in the long - position is - 4%, and in the short - position is - 1%. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 5,556, and in the short - position is 2,599 [8] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of gold is 1,447 tons, with SPDR's holding at 862 tons and iShares' at 402 tons. The 5 - day changes are - 2% and - 4% respectively [8] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 3 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 16,492 hands, and the 1 - week change in the warehouse receipt is - 1 ton [8] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 44,277, and the short - position is 27,801. The 5 - day change in the long - position is 57, and in the short - position is 58. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 4,423, and in the short - position is - 4,757 [12] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of silver is 23,620 tons, and SLV's holding is 13,802 tons. The 5 - day changes are 58 and 78,420 respectively [12] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 78,420 hands, and the 5 - day change in the warehouse receipt is - 7 tons [12] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin are presented in a time - series graph, with data from July 15, 2024, to January 15, 2026 [19] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position of the US dollar index and the total futures and options positions of the US dollar index are presented in time - series graphs, with data from July 1, 2025, to January 27, 2026 [21][22][23] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as the total futures positions of US Treasuries, are presented in time - series graphs, with data spanning multiple years [26][27] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Inflation Expectation - The break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods are presented in a time - series graph, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [31] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Real Interest Rate - The real yield curves of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasuries are presented in a time - series graph, with monthly data from March 2006 to September 2025 [33] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented [35] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - 2 - Year Treasury Yield Spreads between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The yield spreads between the 2 - year US Treasury and 2 - year Treasuries of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany are presented in time - series graphs, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [39]

贵金属极端行情仍在延续。 方正证券援引多家机构分析指出，经历近一个月来金银价格暴涨，此次市场抛售在所难免。总部位于伦 敦的布里坦尼亚全球市场公司资产经纪公司分析师表示，考虑到1月份贵金属上涨的速度和幅度，此次 回调并不出乎意料。英国研究机构金属聚焦公司分析师认为，近来贵金属上涨行情呈现非理性，但鉴于 投资者面临持续的地缘政治风险和经济不确定性，市场抛售或难以持续。 展望后市，新湖期货亦认为黄金价格中长期支撑仍存，指出沃什获提名及由此引发的汇率波动属于短期 扰动，中期市场焦点仍将集中于地缘政治风险升温与特朗普政府政策的高度不确定性；而长期来看，全 球债务可持续性恶化与去美元化趋势的深化，是支撑黄金结构性走强的核心变量。目前，上述中长期逻 辑并未发生根本性逆转。 北京时间2月2日早盘，现货黄金失守4700美元关口，盘中跌逾6%，一度跌破4600美元关口。现货白银 行情更显戏剧性，盘中大跌超7%，随后快速拉升，价格一度翻红，逼近88美元/盎司。 受此影响，国内期货市场上，黄金期货主力合约沪金2604一度跌超15%，触及1016元/克；此外，沪银 主力合约跌停。 A股方面，贵金属板块几乎"全军覆没"，除湖南白银（00 ...

报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贵金属遭受重挫 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会 31 日发布 2026 年 1 月份中国采购经理指 数。数据显示，1 月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势， 产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026 年 1 月 份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点。1 月份装备制 造业采购经理指数为 50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为 52%，装备制造业和 高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。受获利回吐和短期期货 交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格 1 月 30 日继续大幅下跌，均 创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。1 月 30 日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金 期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 美元/盎 司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：周五国际市场贵金属价格暴跌，现货白银一度跌超 30%，现货黄金一度 跌超 10%。此次巨震主要受两方面因素影响：一是因为 1 月 30 ...

具体而言，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置价值虽在，但短期内需在新的宏观叙事下寻找合 理的估值中枢。白银风险已急剧放大，参与需极度谨慎。春节长假临近，外盘走势不确定性较大，保持 灵活仓位与充足流动性是首要纪律。 本次调整的直接触发点，是特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什为美联储下一任主席。凯文·沃什的提名本质上是 政治博弈与市场信任重建的结果。一方面，他历史上以批评量化宽松、强调央行独立性而闻名，政策主 张具有鲜明的"鹰派"色彩，特别是反对将资产负债表扩张作为常态工具，主张通过缩表来维护政策空 间。另一方面，他也同样支持通过降息来降低实体经济融资成本，其政策框架呈现出"既鹰又鸽"的矛盾 统一。对于市场而言，凯文·沃什的上任意味着"无约束宽松"的预期被彻底打破，政策路径将更加注重 纪律与平衡，这对前期建立在极端宽松叙事上的资产价格构成了直接冲击。 本次金银暴跌的深层原因则在于市场自身脆弱的运行状态。经历近一个月脱离基本面的急速拉升，金银 市场已积累了巨大的获利盘，技术性回调需求强烈。凯文·沃什的提名成为引爆市场获利了结的导火 索，最终演变为纽约期金单日最大跌幅超10%、白银大跌逾30%。 整体而言，此次金银调整更多 ...