Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to gradually shift the volatility center upwards, and the previous long positions can be held. The precious metal market is expected to see significantly increased volatility, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in Treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that the Treasury bond futures will face pressure, so caution is required [5][6] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation is low and the market sentiment is warming up. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually shift upwards, and the previous long positions can be held [8] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose significantly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support gold. However, the recent sharp rise has led to increased speculative sentiment, and it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [10] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, the supply pressure increases, and the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that the price will continue the weak oscillation, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips with proper position management [13] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly declined. The demand is at a low level, the supply has increased in 2025, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips with proper position management [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal may decline in the future, and the demand for coke is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels with proper position management [17][18] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon) - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply is in excess, the cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. It is possible to consider long - position opportunities in the low - level range [20] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. The relationship between the US and Iran is unstable, and the CFTC data shows a bullish sentiment. After the correction, the crude oil is expected to regain its strength, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying the main contract [21][22] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The supply in Singapore is tight, but the cost - end crude oil correction drives the fuel oil price down. After the correction, there is still upward space, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying the main contract [24] Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had some resource price increases, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the downstream industry weakens, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying [26] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is affected by the supply of raw materials and the improvement of demand. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation [28][29][30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The supply is shrinking, the cost is supported, and the demand may be weak. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The price is supported by exports and cost, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation [33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is driven by export demand and cost support. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - side trend [37] PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the start - up is slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. It is expected to be mainly in an oscillating adjustment, and cautious participation is recommended [39] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The processing fee has risen, the supply is stable, and the demand is seasonally reduced. It is expected to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [41] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The overall load has increased, the port inventory is accumulating, and the cost is weakening. It is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern, and cautious operation is recommended [42] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The supply is shrinking, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic. Cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [44] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The load is slightly reduced, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is mainly driven by the cost - end, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [45] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash rose. The fundamentals are loose, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. The long - position sentiment is oscillating, but it should still be treated with caution [47] Glass - The previous trading day, glass rose. The fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the inventory digestion needs time. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [48] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The trading sentiment may fluctuate, but it should be treated with caution [50] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp rose. The inventory is accumulating, the terminal demand is stagnant, and the support is weak. It is expected that the price fluctuation before the Spring Festival will be limited [51][52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is required [53][54] Copper - The previous trading day, copper fell. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is affected by mines, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be adjusted before the Spring Festival [55] Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum and alumina fell. The alumina supply is loose, and the aluminum supply growth is limited. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][58] Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc fell. The supply is tightened, the demand is weak, and the inventory has not started to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to enter an adjustment period [60] Lead - The previous trading day, lead rose slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [62] Tin - The previous trading day, tin fell. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is required [64] Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel fell. The cost may rise, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The overall situation of primary nickel is in excess, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [65] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal fell, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted. The soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and the soybean oil demand is slightly improving. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered, and for soybean oil, waiting and seeing is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][68] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose slightly. The inventory is expected to decline, the production is decreasing, and the export is increasing. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [69][71] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The US policy and China - Canada tariff adjustment have an impact. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for now [72][73] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The external market was under pressure. The USDA report is favorable, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the medium - to - long - term, but the short - term internal - external price difference is high. It is advisable to buy on dips after a full correction [74][76][77] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and the external market fell. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [78][79] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The current market is in the final stage of Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. It is advisable to wait for the correction and then go long in batches. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the Spring Festival. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [84][85] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in February. It is recommended to wait and see for now [86] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell slightly. The northern port inventory is low, the demand has slightly recovered, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. Corn starch may follow the corn market trend [87][88] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is slightly shrinking, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost is slightly increasing. The short - term market is improving, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [89][90][91]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has faced domestic economic pressures and international relations challenges since taking office in October 2025, but has stabilized her position through a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party [1] - Takashi announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026, with elections scheduled for February 8, 2026, viewing this as an opportunity to consolidate power and enhance negotiation leverage with China [3] - The trade relationship between Japan and China has deteriorated, with a 5% decline in trade volume in 2025 compared to 2024, and a significant impact on Japan's semiconductor and electronics industries due to China's export restrictions on dual-use items and rare earth materials [5][9] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has led to a 15% increase in costs for Japanese companies, with the yen falling to around 155 against the dollar, creating inflationary pressures that have raised consumer prices by over 10% [5][7][18] - Takashi's government has increased the defense budget to 9 trillion yen, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal deficit, which is already the highest among developed countries at 230% of GDP [9] - The global shift towards de-dollarization has been accelerated, with the use of the yuan in international trade rising significantly, indicating a structural challenge to the dollar's dominance [11][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876) indicates strong investor interest in the nonferrous metal sector, with significant net subscriptions and a positive outlook for future performance despite short-term volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF experienced a decline of 2.66% in price, with a real-time net subscription of 15 million units and a total of 174.9 million yuan attracted yesterday [1][2]. - Over the past 20 days, the ETF has accumulated over 1.2 billion yuan, reflecting a strong belief in the sector's future performance [1]. Group 2: Sector Dynamics - Macro factors such as a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing investment strategies in the nonferrous metal sector [3]. - Mining companies are actively acquiring assets, with notable transactions including the acquisition of Brazilian gold mines by Luoyang Molybdenum and a significant purchase by Zijin Mining [3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - Prices for gold, copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel have seen significant increases, positively impacting the earnings forecasts for major mining companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining [3]. - Analysts predict that the high profitability in the nonferrous metal sector will be sustained for 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF provides comprehensive exposure to various metals, including precious and strategic metals, making it an efficient tool for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's performance [5]. - Recommendations suggest maintaining a 10%-20% allocation to the nonferrous metal sector within investment portfolios to benefit from potential price increases while managing risk [4].

宏 观 消 息 3、数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势，产业结构继续优 化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经 理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 2026年02月05日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | ...

今日（2月5日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）随市盘整回调，场内价格现跌 2.66%，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购1500万份，昨天亦吸金1749万元，拉长时间来看，此前20 日累计狂揽超12亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，持续进场布局！ 成份股方面，钢研高纳领涨超2%，宝钛股份涨逾1%，西部超导飘红，其余57股尽墨。湖南白银、白银 有色跌超7%，湖南黄金、赣锋锂业等个股跌逾3%，跌幅居前，拖累指数表现。 | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | F9 盘前盘后 强加 九转 面线 工具 @ 2 | 有色ETF华宇 | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 159876[有色ETF华室] 09:53 价 1.135 涨跌 -0.031(-2.66%) 均价 1.140 成交量 9 1,200 | 2,9296 | | | -0.031 -2.66% | | 分析图 | | | SZSE CNY 9:53:03 交易中 | | 0 / 0 + | | | 1.193 | 2.3396 | 净值走势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI field is experiencing accelerated model iteration due to the increasing stock of chips, with a clear trend of model differentiation, leading to strategic choices between To B and To C for different AI labs [1] - The recent performance of Clawdbot highlights the strong capabilities of large models and the demand for open-source and offline model applications among developers [1] Group 2 - The company remains optimistic about quality companies in the overseas computing power chain, despite recent market fluctuations due to funding factors, expecting renewed market focus on excellent companies as major firms report sequential earnings growth [2] - The volatility in the non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by various geopolitical events, leading to a surge in de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases, with precious metals like silver and gold driving the price increases of constrained supply metals such as copper and aluminum [2] - Following the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, extreme bullish positions in gold and silver have seen a correction, indicating a potential period of consolidation for the sector [2] Group 3 - The medium-term outlook suggests that price adjustments following overheated sentiment will not alter the upward trend of precious and non-ferrous metals, driven by U.S. debt issues and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3] - The company maintains a positive outlook for the equity market in 2026 while remaining vigilant about potential risk events, advocating for an active and diversified investment approach [3] - AI-driven technological innovation remains a market focus, with expectations of increasing commercial applications and ongoing infrastructure bottlenecks in computing power, including GPUs, power infrastructure, storage, and CPUs [3] Group 4 - The insurance industry is highlighted for its growth potential based on rapid expansion on the liability side and sustainable returns on the investment side [4] - There is a continued positive outlook for gold, copper, aluminum, and rare metals in the medium to long term, while caution is advised regarding short-term reactions in futures prices and stock prices [4] Group 5 - The lithium battery supply chain, internet, gaming, and offshore wind industries are maintained as key areas of focus and investment [5]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally supported by supply and demand improvements, have been "misjudged" during these shocks. As the risk center stabilizes, these commodities may return to their fundamental pricing logic, presenting better entry opportunities compared to previous rotation phases [1][10]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs in January 2026, noting that macro data and policy expectations fluctuated, with interest rate cut expectations providing temporary support for gold asset allocation. The report emphasizes the importance of U.S. macro data, monetary policy statements, and geopolitical developments in influencing gold prices in February 2026 [2][12]. - The report indicates that as of January 30, 2026, the total market value of the Huaan Gold ETF reached 127.526 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 74.397 billion yuan on that day [2][12]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the outflow of deposits under different scenarios, estimating that by the end of 2026, the total amount of term deposits could reach 188.62 trillion yuan under a low growth scenario, with an excess outflow of 32.3 trillion yuan. In a medium growth scenario, the total could reach 193.11 trillion yuan with an excess outflow of 27.8 trillion yuan, and in a high growth scenario, it could reach 197.60 trillion yuan with an excess outflow of 21.5 trillion yuan [3][4][16]. Industry Recommendations - Huatai Securities plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds worth 10 billion yuan to support its overseas business development. The initial conversion price is set at 19.7 HKD per share, with a dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares. This financing method is seen as beneficial for the company's international business growth [5][17]. - Baba Foods reported a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%. The company is expected to accelerate growth in 2026 through new store formats and acquisitions, with projected net profits of 270 million, 330 million, and 400 million yuan for 2025-2027 [7][20]. - Fute Technology, a leading player in the vehicle power supply industry, is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 230 million, 365 million, and 535 million yuan for 2025-2027, driven by expanding customer bases and technological advancements [8][21].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell over 2% to 102,590 yuan, while London copper hovered around $13,000 [4] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with a cooling U.S. employment market and support for a strong dollar impacting copper prices [5][19] - The fundamental outlook is neutral to bullish, with a fixed investment target of 180 billion yuan for the Southern Power Grid by 2026, and a planned investment of over 24 billion yuan in Q1, a 20% year-on-year increase [6][19] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain resilient due to global strategic reserves intensifying supply-demand tensions [6][19] - Today's trading range for Shanghai copper is suggested to be between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan per ton, with strategies recommending reducing positions before the holiday [6][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment is showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in the non-ferrous sector [20] - Nickel supply is tight due to weather-related shipping disruptions in the Philippines and rainfall affecting Indonesian supply [20] - The stainless steel market faces oversupply pressures, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to low arrivals and strong cost support [20][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market experienced a general decline, with alumina futures prices slightly dropping while spot prices stabilized [22] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated that a "reverse involution" policy for alumina will be introduced, but its impact will take time to materialize [22] - In January, 64.9% of the alumina industry was operating at a loss, with 23.8% of production facing cash cost losses [22] - The trading range for alumina futures is suggested to be between 2,600 and 2,900 yuan per ton, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within this range [23][22] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. [24] - February is expected to see a slight increase in processing fees, with a reduction in supply exceeding 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [24] - The demand side is affected by environmental controls in the north and reduced operations in galvanizing, leading to a return to a quiet market ahead of the holiday [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a strong fluctuation, with tight supply from primary lead and a relatively loose supply from recycled lead due to transportation costs [25] - The market is entering a traditional off-season, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential needs, leading to an increase in inventory [25] - The trading range for lead futures is suggested to be between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a slight rebound, although some gains were given back due to neutral to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [27] - The market is influenced by mixed economic data, with the ADP employment change significantly below expectations, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations [27] - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact despite short-term volatility risks, with gold long positions recommended to be held [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The gold market has entered a complex game stage of "unchanged long - term narrative but short - term valuation under pressure". The long - term core logic driving gold remains strong, but short - term price has incorporated a lot of optimistic expectations [3]. - The copper market has entered a new stage of "policy setting the tone and industry determining the amplitude". China's strict capacity control and resource reserve policies have set a higher valuation bottom and clearer upward risk for global copper prices [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Reference view: on - look [1]. - **Core Logic**: After a short - term emotional sell - off, the gold market rebounded. The core drivers are concerns about the Fed's independence and policy path, and geopolitical tensions. The long - term core logic remains strong, but short - term price may face profit - taking [3]. Copper - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: long - term bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: After a macro - emotional shock, copper prices rebounded strongly. China's policy of halting new copper smelting capacity and considering copper concentrate as strategic reserves has fundamentally changed the supply expectation and provided long - term support for copper prices [5].

实探水贝：有商家称"原料都没有了" 在经历此前暴跌后，国际金价自2月3日起反弹，并于2月4日收复关键点位，一度重回5000美元/盎司上方，行情可谓"过山 车"。 在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、市场对美联储年内降息预期升温的背景下，今年以来，避险资金大举涌入黄金与白银市场。1 月份现货黄金价格累涨约13%，不过，在1月最后一个交易日，黄金一度下跌超11%。 2月2日，国际市场贵金属价格开盘后大幅跳水，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4423.2美元，较前一交易日 收盘价下跌超6%；白银期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超9%。很多投资者冲向水贝黄金市场"买金卖金"。 在经历了暴跌之后，黄金、白银价格2月3日迎来反弹，市场买金卖金是否还火爆？"料商放假""原料没有了""回收一公斤以上 就要考虑一下"⋯⋯2月4日，记者实探深圳水贝黄金市场。 《每日经济新闻》记者以客户身份走访深圳水贝市场，一名店家对记者表示："前两天金价回调的时候人很多，这两天金价上 涨人就少了。现在金价比前两天1克贵了100多元，前两天跌了是因为前阵子涨得太猛了，肯定要有一个大幅回调，回调之后 就是比较温和地上涨。" 在得知记 ...