1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Red Dates - Current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market trading is light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of social inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamental situation has no obvious driving force, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 2.2 Apples - In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. As the Spring Festival stocking season approaches, market activity has increased. In the medium to long term, high - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high - priced apples may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits may挤占 the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market will fluctuate at a high level, with near - term prices stronger than long - term prices [3][8]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening US dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. In India, production is strong, while Thailand's crushing season is progressing slowly. Overall, raw sugar prices will remain volatile in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the Spring Festival approaching, trading is acceptable, and enterprises are selling at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [10]. 2.4 Cotton - ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas is rising, but it is still early for sowing, and further observation is needed. USDA export sales have been declining, and export expectations may be revised downwards. US cotton is expected to remain volatile at a low level. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, cotton prices may enter a period of adjustment in the short term [13]. 2.5 Corn - Snowfall in Northeast China has affected the supply of corn, and pre - festival stocking by some downstream enterprises has supported prices. The futures price increase has boosted market sentiment, and prices in production areas and northern ports are rising. In North China, the pace of grain sales is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. In terms of demand, deep - processing enterprises still have a willingness to replenish inventory, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited; feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are mainly replenishing inventory on a rolling basis. In terms of policy, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid demand for stocking by downstream enterprises support the upward movement of corn prices [16][18]. 2.6 Oils - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report, negative factors have been digested, and positive export data have supported the market. Crude palm oil futures may approach 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report is bearish, and CBOT soybeans may experience a correction after a period of stagnant growth. CBOT soybean oil may follow suit. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory in factories is decreasing, but the USDA reports are negative for the market, and Dalian soybean oil may test the support level of 7900 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The limited increase in international crude oil has provided weak support for the domestic vegetable oil market. Concerns about future rapeseed oil supply due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China have led to a weakening sentiment. Rapeseed oil may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. The basis price of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in the start - up of domestic crushing plants [19]. 2.7 Pigs - Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig farmers have reduced the number of pigs for sale, while southern demand has dropped significantly. Although there is still some restocking in local second - fattening, the enthusiasm is limited due to the relatively high current pig prices. The market expects an increase in supply in the future. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be sold in mid - to late January, and the overall supply in January will be relatively loose. The upward space for the futures market is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [20][21]. 2.8 Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' willingness to cull laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather conditions, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is increasing. With the Spring Festival approaching, the festival stocking plans of various links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, the procurement intensity of household consumption has not changed significantly, and the current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading links. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. Considering the overall loose supply, egg futures prices are expected to remain volatile at a low level [23]. 2.9 Meal - US soybeans are strongly influenced by capital and sentiment, and the market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday for new trading guidance. The domestic purchase of soybean cargoes is fast, and the supply in the domestic market will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve sales. The visit of Canada to China has sent positive signals, and the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, which has dragged down the domestic rapeseed meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. There are also many expectations of auctions, which have put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downward space for soybean meal is limited, and the upward movement is mainly affected by policy factors. The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound volatile pattern [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have increased slightly, with increases of 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.48% respectively. The 5 - 7 spread has increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 21.88%. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates are 9490 yuan/ton, 8200 yuan/ton, and 7000 yuan/ton respectively. The special - grade red date price has decreased by 0.32%, and the first - and second - grade prices have remained unchanged. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 2820, an increase of 11.77%, and the number of valid forecasts is 472, a decrease of 23.25%. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 3292, an increase of 4.91% [1]. 3.2 Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) has decreased by 0.61%, and the price of the apple 2610 contract has increased by 0.11%. The basis has increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread has decreased by 5.59%. - **Market Arrivals**: The arrivals at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets have increased by 14.29%, 9.09%, and 12.50% respectively. - **Inventory and Profits**: The national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit has decreased by 4.38%, and the surface profit has decreased by 6.35% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.06% and 0.15% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 45.45%. The main - contract position has decreased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 48.86%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 42.38%. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5360 yuan/ton and 5230 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis has decreased by 8.54%, and the Kunming basis has increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota and out - of - quota) have decreased by 0.52%. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased by 16.43% and 37.18% respectively. The sugar production and sales in Guangxi have decreased by 29.42% and 40.96% respectively. The national and Guangxi sugar sales ratios have decreased by 24.77% and 23.20% respectively. The national industrial inventory has increased by 10.82%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 5.55%, and the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 85.45%. Sugar imports have decreased by 16.98% [10]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts have decreased by 0.34% and 0.44% respectively. The ICE US cotton main contract has increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 8.11%. The main - contract position has decreased by 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 5.14%, and the number of valid forecasts has decreased by 4.57%. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton and the CC Index 3128B have decreased by 0.52% and 0.46% respectively. The FC Index M 1% has remained unchanged. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the import volume has increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days have decreased by 4.6%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 4.4%, the spinning - enterprise C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 3.6%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has decreased by 44.4%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year growth rate of the month has increased by 110.8%, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories has increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate has increased by 31.4% [13]. 3.5 Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of the corn 2603 contract has increased by 1.19%, the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 115.38%. The price of the corn starch 2603 contract has decreased by 1.22%, and the 3 - 7 spread has increased by 38.30%. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the Shekou Port market price has increased by 0.41%. The north - south trading profit has decreased by 1000.00%, and the import profit has decreased by 18.58%. The average price of corn starch has increased by 0.04%. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants have decreased by 21.96%. The corn position has increased by 3.99%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 4.16%. The corn starch position has increased by 1.46%, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [16]. 3.6 Oils - **Futures Market**: The price of the Y2605 soybean oil contract has decreased by 0.35%, the P2605 palm oil contract has increased by 0.48%, and the OI605 rapeseed oil contract has decreased by 0.69%. The soybean - palm oil spread, soybean - rapeseed oil spread, and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread have changed to varying degrees. - **Spot Market**: The prices of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu have decreased by 0.35%, 0.35%, and 1.02% respectively. - **Inventory and Profits**: The soybean oil inventory in China has decreased, the palm oil inventory in China has changed, and the rapeseed oil inventory in China has changed. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port have changed [19]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract has increased by 3.10%, the 2603 contract has decreased by 0.41%, and the 3 - 5 spread has increased by 3.37%. The main - contract basis is 1165, and the main - contract position has increased by 0.84%. The number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hebei, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume has decreased by 0.09%, the white - strip price has remained unchanged, the piglet price has increased by 6.45%, the sow price has increased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight has decreased by 0.09%, the self - breeding profit has increased by 66.64%, the purchased - piglet breeding profit has increased by 95.22%, and the number of fertile sows has decreased by 1.12% [20][21]. 3.8 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts have decreased by 0.66% and 0.57% respectively. The basis has increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread has decreased by 0.36%. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price has increased by 3.21%, the egg - chicken chick price has increased by 3.57%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit has increased by 18.01% [23]. 3.9 Meal - **Futures Market**: The price of the M2605 soybean meal contract has increased by 0.14%, the RM2605 rapeseed meal contract has decreased by 0.34%, the price of the soybean - one main contract has decreased by 0.50%, and the price of the soybean - two main contract has increased by 0.09%. The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread, rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread, oil - meal ratio, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread have changed to varying degrees. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu soybean meal, Jiangsu rapeseed meal, Harbin soybeans, and Jiangsu imported soybeans have changed to varying degrees. - **Inventory and Profits**: The number of soybean meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has remained unchanged, the number of soybean warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.01%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has increased by 32.4%, and the Canadian 3 - month shipping - date import crushing profit has remained unchanged [24].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core Viewpoint - With the arrival of imported ores and the continuous opening of the import window, smelters' raw material inventory has slightly increased, leading to a decline in the enthusiasm for purchasing domestic ores. The supply pressure is expected to continue to decrease quarter-on-quarter. Although consumption has entered the traditional off - season, zinc consumption remains relatively strong, and social inventory accumulates slowly. Zinc shows relative resistance to decline under capital disturbances, with low absolute valuation and long - term macro factors remaining bullish. [4] Key Information by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$43.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan per ton, with a change of 110 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of 75 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,090 yuan per ton, with a change of 130 yuan and a premium of 25 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,070 yuan per ton, with a change of 110 yuan and a premium of 5 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,070 yuan per ton and closed at 24,125 yuan per ton, a change of 245 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,562 lots, and the position was 73,033 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,140 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,895 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 118,300 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons, a change of - 650 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - With the arrival of imported ores and the continuous opening of the import window, smelters' raw material inventory has slightly increased. The domestic ore TC remains stable, while the imported ore TC continues to decline. The smelter's raw material available days are not high, and the TC is difficult to rise in the short term. The comprehensive smelting profit is difficult to repair, and the output in the first quarter may still fall short of expectations, reducing supply pressure. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, but zinc consumption remains relatively strong, social inventory accumulates slowly, and the spot premium is maintained. [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral. [5]

化工日报 | 2026-01-13 策略 单边：中性。当前价格不高，但下游隐性库存也累积到了高位，同时随着港口库存的回升，场内货源流动性增加， 供应压力下1~2月累库压力仍偏大，反弹空间受限 跨期：EG2603-EG2605反套 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3880元/吨（较前一交易日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.36%），EG华东市场现货价 3726元/吨（较前一交易日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.46%），EG华东现货基差-149元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。上周乙二醇 显性库存大幅堆积且近端到货依旧集中，现货基差走弱为主。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-71美元/吨（环比+7美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-862 元/吨（环比+5元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为80.2万吨（环比+7.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数16.6万吨，副 港 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long the spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - After the urea price rose last week, new order transactions slowed down, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to sell goods. The transaction in East China improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas of compound fertilizers were lifted, the start - up rate increased, and procurement improved. The melamine plants resumed production, the start - up rate increased, and there was rigid demand for procurement. The in - factory inventory of urea was basically flat this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The current domestic export quota has no new news, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 12, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,783 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 53 yuan/ton (-26), in Henan it was - 43 yuan/ton (-16), and in Jiangsu it was - 43 yuan/ton (-26) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (+0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 165 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 850 yuan/ton (+12). On January 2nd, the Indian NFL urea import tender received bids from 26 suppliers for 3.62 million tons, with the lowest offer of CFR 426.8 US dollars/ton on the East Coast and 424.8 US dollars/ton on the West Coast, up 5 - 8 US dollars/ton from the previous tender. The Indian NFL counter - offered to purchase 1.5 million tons and has currently booked 1 million tons [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17% (+3.28%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0222 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 135,000 tons (-37,000) [1]

【1月13日沪锡期货主力合约大涨创近一年新高】1月13日，沪锡期货主力合约日内大幅上涨7.21%，现 报价391400元/吨，创下2022年3月以来新高。 与此同时，伦锡日内涨幅超2%，现报48890美元/吨。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, while the price of thermal coal shows a mixed trend with uncertain demand [1][3][5][8] - The supply and demand patterns of different black building materials vary, and factors such as production resumption, winter storage, and raw material replenishment have an impact on prices [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The inventory of construction steel decreased by 1.74% month - on - month, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.98% month - on - month. The spot trading of steel was average, and the price followed the futures price [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials have weakened slightly, with rapid production resumption of steel mills and delayed winter storage replenishment by downstream. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. Short - term prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated upward. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 19.70% month - on - month, and the transaction volume of forward spot decreased by 52.15% month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 5.9% month - on - month [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. The actual fundamentals are better than the statistical data. High prices stimulate supply release. If negotiations are concluded, there will be a supply shock. Short - term prices will fluctuate due to production resumption and winter storage replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated upward. The price of coal for furnace use rose slightly, and coking profits improved. After New Year's Day, the blast furnaces of steel mills resumed production, and the rigid demand increased slightly. The supply in the production area increased steadily, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal recovered rapidly [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of coke is relatively balanced. With the production resumption of steel mills, the actual demand has improved, but the purchasing willingness in the trading link is still low. The raw material replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. The supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price of coking coal has strong support below [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the price has been strong recently, but the downstream is resistant to high - priced coal, resulting in a mixed situation of price increases and decreases. At the port, the inventory has increased slightly, but it is still lower than last year. The import coal price has risen, but the price advantage of low - calorie Indonesian coal is weak [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The coal price has risen slightly, but the downstream demand has not met expectations. The future temperature is expected to rise, and there are differences in views. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

每经AI快讯，1月13日，碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅12%，报174060元/吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.75%. The position decreased by 827 lots to 238,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,995 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 2.89%. The position decreased by 2,113 lots to 48,830 lots. The price of N-type re - fed polysilicon material by Baichuan remained stable at 55,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 55,000 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 5,005 yuan/ton. Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot - futures merchants. The manufacturers' inventory is gradually transferred to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory increases. Recently, the cost side has shown minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a volatile situation. There have been frequent news of anti - involution and industry self - discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown in Xinjiang before the Spring Festival, the production areas have started pre - holiday rush operations, resulting in concentrated warrant registrations, and the overheated speculative sentiment has cooled down. The upside premium space of polysilicon is limited. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,755 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 8,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan to 95 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,888, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons, the Huangpu Port inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the Tianjin Port inventory remained at 80,000 tons, the Kunming Port inventory remained at 52,000 tons, the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon remained at 457,850 tons. [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 1,305 yuan/ton to 49,995 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 3,530 yuan/ton to 48,725 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 55,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 1,305 yuan to 5,005 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,430, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 132,900 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 311,800 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 4,000 tons to 312,000 tons. [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, the raw rubber price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, the 107 - glue price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the dimethyl silicone oil price increased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton. [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [6][9][11] 3.2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [14][16][18] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory and inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC. [20][21][23] 3.2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy. [26][28][30] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. Wang Heng mainly focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi mainly focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily insights and forecasts for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and geopolitical events. For example, due to geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices are affected, which in turn impacts the cost and price trends of related chemical products [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aromatics and Polyester - related Products - **PX**: Expected to be in a high - level unilateral shock market. Although the supply is gradually becoming more abundant, the cost support from oil prices and the attention from macro funds keep it short - term strong. Suggestions include paying attention to positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads and hedging by going long on PX and short on PTA [11]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Future supply and demand are both weak, but currently, with high processing fees and low inventory, the price remains firm. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, and go long on SC and short on PTA [12]. - **MEG**: Short - term rebound is expected. Although the demand from polyester is declining, the supply pressure is relieved due to factors such as the impact of the naphtha consumption tax policy on oil - based plants and overseas device shutdowns. It is suggested to close short positions [13]. 3.2 Rubber - related Products - **Rubber**: In a wide - range shock state. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the tire enterprise production is different. The overall sales pressure of the tire industry remains [15][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward pressure is gradually increasing. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost [20]. 3.3 Plastic - related Products - **LLDPE**: Some production of standard products has been switched back, and the regional spot replenishment continues. The raw material price is stable, but the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term still exists due to high production capacity and weakening demand [21][22]. - **PP**: The cost support is relatively strong as downstream export rush supports propylene. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.4 Other Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with weak demand and large supply pressure. The future delivery pressure of some contracts is also large [29]. - **Pulp**: In a wide - range shock state. The supply - demand structure of the market has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand is only for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends in the futures market [35]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The overall market operation is relatively stable, but the demand support is gradually weakening, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [38]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level shock state. The spot price is fluctuating slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the upstream inventory clearance rhythm and freight changes [44]. - **Urea**: Short - term callback is expected, but it is strong in the medium - term. The inventory has a small increase, and the demand is improving, but the short - term downstream resistance is increasing [47][48]. - **Styrene**: In a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to go short at high prices. The medium - term driving force is weak due to factors such as the weakening of overseas blending oil drive [50][51]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The futures price has a small increase, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively stable [54]. - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by factors such as CP paper price changes and device maintenance plans [63]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price is affected by the supply - demand relationship in the market and the operation rate of related devices [58]. - **PVC**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, but there is still support below. The low - sulfur fuel oil has entered a shock state, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is continuously rebounding [69][70]. 3.5 Shipping - related Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin opening guidance, and a light - position short - selling trial can be made for the 04 contract. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity changes, demand fluctuations caused by export tax - rebate policies, and geopolitical situations [80][81][82]. 3.6 Fiber - related Products - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on TA and short on PF [88]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the long - short spread position of monthly spreads [89]. 3.7 Paper - related Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The market price is stable, but the downstream demand is limited, and the production and sales situation is not good [91]. 3.8 Benzene - related Products - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is increasing, and the market price has risen, but the post - price increase trading volume is general [96][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of commodity options on January 12, 2026, including the futures and options market statistics and option quantitative indicators of agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Agricultural Products 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - Various agricultural products show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of corn (c2603) is 2290 with a change of 27, and the trading volume increases by 98441 [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and open interest of options for different agricultural products are provided, along with their changes [3] 3.1.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Includes information such as remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, as well as historical volatility and skew for different agricultural product options [4] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Different energy chemical products have distinct price movements, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For instance, the closing price of PTA (ta2605) is 5142 with an increase of 34, and the trading volume increases by 504652 [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - Information on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for energy chemical products, along with their changes [6][7] 3.2.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Details about remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for energy chemical product options [8] 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - The futures market statistics of black commodities like iron ore, power coal, and rebar are presented, including price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for black commodities, along with their changes [9] 3.3.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Information on remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for black commodity options [10] 3.4 Metals 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - The futures market statistics of metals such as gold, silver, and copper are shown, including price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for metals, along with their changes [12] 3.4.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Details about remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for metal options [13]