Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - **Related News**: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - **Related News**: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - **Related News**: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - **Related News**: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - **Related News**: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - **Related News**: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - **Related News**: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - **Related News**: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: BR

Group 1 - The oilseed market experienced fluctuations this week, influenced by policies, weather, and supply-demand factors, with a trend of rising and then falling prices [1] - The U.S. has passed a tax amendment that prohibits the use of non-North American raw materials for biofuel tax credits, which is expected to benefit local raw material consumption [1] - The upcoming U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hearing on bioenergy policies for 2026-2027 will significantly impact the oilseed market [1] Group 2 - The protein meal market is facing neutral pressure from old soybean inventories, while new crop acreage is shrinking, raising concerns about dry weather [1] - Domestic protein meal prices are under pressure, with strategies suggesting potential long positions in soybean meal [1] - The egg futures market showed a slight increase of 1.1% for the main contract, but demand is weakening, leading to a price correction [1] Group 3 - U.S. corn prices are under pressure due to increased acreage and high yield expectations, with a 7% decrease in corn inventories compared to last year [1] - Domestic corn prices are also declining, with a weak futures market and strong spot prices [1] - The pig market saw an increase in prices, with the average price reaching 15.5 yuan/kg, up 0.84 yuan/kg from the previous week [1]

2025年07月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提涨发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 7 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 732.5 | -0.5 | -0.07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变 ...

2025年07月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA止盈 | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：原油小跌，震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：液氯降价，成本抬升 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘窄幅调整，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：短期偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差高位震荡 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：震荡偏弱，需求压力逐步体现 | 35 | | 瓶 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/07 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 变化 -5 -23 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 现实与预期博弈，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 7 月 4 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿 ...

2025 年 7 月 7 日 镍：上方弹性受限，镍价低位承压 不锈钢：库存轻微消化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,270 | 480 | 1,790 | 3,990 | -320 | -5,060 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,730 | 20 | 110 | 225 | 10 | -700 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 111,042 | 32,053 | 16,854 | 28,449 | -6,374 | -73,957 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 102,164 | 16,753 | -39,913 | -29,076 | 6,478 | -83,259 | | | | 1#进口镍 | 122,7 ...

贝克休斯油服：美国钻井公司连续第十周削减石油和天然气钻机数。 截至2025年7月4日当周，液化石油气期货主力合约收于4180元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持 12670手。 本周（6月30日-7月4日）市场上看，液化石油气期货周内开盘报4254元/吨，最高触及4268元/吨，最低 下探至4166元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-1.62%。 消息面回顾： 截至2025年7月3日，中国液化气样本企业库容率水平在24.71%，较上期（20250626）缩减0.45个百分 点。 最新数据显示，截至7月3日当周，全国264家液化气生产企业，液化气商品量总量为53.80万吨左右，周 环比降0.57%。 机构观点汇总： 瑞达期货（002961）：美国尚未与几个大型贸易伙伴达成贸易协议，市场担忧需求前景；OPEC+大概 率将在8月延续41.1万桶/日的增产力度；美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降；美国在线钻探油井数量425座，出现明显减少；国际油价小幅下跌。市场燃烧需求持续疲软且价格 跟随成本高位运行引发下游观望。下游按需采购，炼厂库存有所下降；华南市场供需双弱，实际交投平 淡。短线价格预计延续整理。技术 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate policy support weakened in the first half of the year, and the real - estate completion end significantly dragged down glass consumption. The demand for individual home - improvement orders also weakened. Although the production and sales of automobiles maintained high positive growth, especially automobile exports, which supported glass consumption in the automotive sector, it still couldn't offset the drag from the real - estate completion end. From the Spring Festival to now, glass has experienced a significant downward trend, with the glass 09 contract falling from a maximum of 1499 yuan/ton to the current 977 yuan/ton, a decline of 35% [7][8][37]. - The core point of contention in the market for glass consumption in the second half of the year is the change in the real - estate industry. The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption. The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1% [7][8][38]. - In the first half of this year, the production profit of float glass was relatively stable, with the loss of natural - gas - made glass narrowing, and the profits of coal - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass rebounding slightly. Recently, the losses of natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass have slightly increased. Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit of about 80 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red, with losses of - 180 yuan/ton and - 128 yuan/ton respectively. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2% [7][9][47]. - The glass inventory increased rapidly after the Spring Festival, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply in the short term. It is advisable to wait for changes in the supply side and further trading opportunities [7][62][71]. - In the short term, with no real - estate stimulus policies and no large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [11][72]. Summary According to the Catalog 2025 First - Half Glass Market Review - **Real - estate industry cooling, completion declining year - on - year**: Since 2022, the real - estate "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" policy has driven the continuous improvement of the real - estate completion end. However, since 2024, the improvement has ended, and the real - estate completion data has shown significant negative growth for two consecutive years. As of May 2025, the cumulative housing completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, among which the residential completion area was 133 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6% [16]. - **Limited real - estate policy support, weakening demand for individual home - improvement orders**: In the first half of 2025, a series of real - estate policies were introduced, but the demand for individual home - improvement orders continued to weaken. After a brief rebound in March, the second - hand housing market returned to a downward trend, and only some first - tier cities showed relatively high second - hand housing transactions, which also gradually weakened. Since September 2024, the active second - hand housing transactions have not driven the sales growth of building materials and home furnishing stores, and the national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index has also declined [18][26]. - **New - energy vehicles maintaining good momentum, supporting automotive glass consumption**: From January to May this year, the cumulative national automobile production was 12.826 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, among which the cumulative new - energy vehicle production was 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. From January to May, the cumulative national automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [28]. 2025 Second - Half Glass Market Outlook - **Weak real - estate market, completion continuing to drag down glass consumption**: The real - estate market will remain weak in the long - term. The real - estate completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption as new home sales have not improved, and the corresponding completion consumption has declined for two consecutive years [38][39]. - **Profit significantly compressed, glass supply uncertain**: Currently, only coal - gas - made glass has a production profit, while natural - gas - made and petroleum - coke - made glass are in the red. In the first half of the year, the float glass profit was relatively stable, and the number of operating production lines decreased by only 3 compared with the beginning of the year, with the average daily melting volume maintained at about 157,000 tons. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline [47][56][71]. Supply - Demand Contradiction Exists, Inventory Rising Again - Affected by the decline in consumption, the production profit of float glass was compressed, and the output decreased. However, the decline in consumption far exceeded that in output. After the Spring Festival, the glass inventory increased rapidly, then briefly decreased, and now has returned to an increasing trend, indicating that the float glass industry still faces a certain degree of oversupply [62]. Summary - The consumption of glass in the real - estate completion end will further weaken, individual home - improvement order consumption will continue to decline, and automotive glass consumption is expected to maintain positive growth. It is estimated that the annual glass consumption will decrease by about 7.1%. The float glass profit has been significantly compressed, and if the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, some production lines may be cold - repaired, and the output may decline. It is estimated that the annual glass supply will decrease by about 7.2%. In the short term, glass still faces a certain degree of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to changes in the supply side and wait for trading opportunities. In the absence of real - estate stimulus policies and large - scale cold - repair of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7][71][72].