Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: In the off - season, focus on the expected rebound opportunities of steel prices [2][6] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The spot market trading sentiment is average, with wide - range fluctuations [2][10] - **Coke**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [2][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, expected to fluctuate strongly [2][14] - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 2.01%. The position decreased by 6,796 lots to 558,846 lots. Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices declined. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.54%. Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.45%. Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - **News**: In the week of October 23rd, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [10] - **News**: On October 27th, silicon - iron prices in different regions were reported, and NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [14] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a relatively strong trend [15] Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with daily and weekly declines. The trading volume and position of some contracts changed significantly [17] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]

Report Date - The report is dated October 28, 2025 [1][5][10] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to continue to decline, while silver will rebound in a volatile manner [2][5] - Copper prices are supported by bullish market sentiment [10] - Zinc will have a slight rebound [13] - Lead prices are supported by the decrease in overseas inventories [16] - Tin prices are subject to macro - economic impacts [18] - Aluminum will trade in a range, alumina will rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22] - Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [24] - Lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly due to the firm basis [27] - Industrial silicon has support at the bottom as warehouse receipts continue to decline, and polysilicon is affected by sentiment, with attention on this week's policy [30][31] - Iron ore prices will fluctuate repeatedly [34] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may rebound during the off - season, with attention on expectations [36] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will have wide - range fluctuations as the spot market trading sentiment is average [40] - Coke and coking coal will fluctuate strongly, supported by fundamentals [43][44] - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [46] - Para - xylene will be strong in the short term [50] - PTA will rebound in the short term as the market focuses on potential anti - involution policies, and MEG will rebound due to the supply contraction caused by multiple device overhauls [51] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The Shanghai gold 2512 contract closed at 934.14 with a daily decline of 0.42%, and the night - session price was 919.70 with a decline of 2.25%. The trend intensity is - 1 [5] - Silver: The Shanghai silver 2512 contract closed at 11394 with a daily increase of 0.54%, and the night - session price was 11150 with a decline of 2.44%. The trend intensity is - 1 [5] Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 88370 with a daily increase of 0.74%, and the night - session price was 88130 with a decline of 0.27%. China's September refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76%. The trend intensity is 1 [10] - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22365 with a daily increase of 0.04%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 550 tons to 37050 tons. The trend intensity is 0 [13] - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17520 with a daily decline of 0.43%. LME lead inventory decreased by 3000 tons to 232375 tons. The trend intensity is 0 [16] - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 286,720 with a daily increase of 0.85%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1900 yuan/ton to 281,900 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 0 [18] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21360. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5107.80 yuan/ton. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0 [22] - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,400. Due to the Indonesian government's takeover of a nickel mine area, it is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [24] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: The 2511 contract closed at 81,120. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 1193 yuan/ton to 76595 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 1 [27] Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The Si2601 contract closed at 8965. The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.9 million tons. The trend intensity is 0 [31] - Polysilicon: The PS2601 contract closed at 54,500. The polysilicon enterprise profit was 8.5 yuan/kg. The trend intensity is 0 [31] Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The 12601 contract closed at 786.5 with a daily increase of 2.01%. The price of PB ore (61.5%) increased by 14 yuan/ton to 792 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 0 [34] - Rebar: The RB2601 contract closed at 3100 with a daily increase of 1.54%. The national September crude steel output was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [36] - Hot - rolled coil: The HC2601 contract closed at 3299 with a daily increase of 1.45%. The total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.27 million tons [36] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5542. The spot price of ferrosilicon: FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton. The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [40] - Silicomanganese: The manganese silicon 2601 contract closed at 5772. The price of manganese ore: Mn44 block was 39.7 yuan/ton - degree. The trend intensity is 0 [40] - Coke: The J2601 contract closed at 1779.5 with a daily increase of 1.3%. The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1495 yuan/ton. The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [44] - Coking coal: The JM2601 contract closed at 1263.5 with a daily increase of 1.2%. The price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal self - pick - up increased by 25 yuan/ton to 1332 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 1 [44] Forestry Products - Log: The 2511 contract closed at 763 with a daily decline of 4.2%. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 760 yuan/m³. The trend intensity is 1 [47] Chemical Products - Para - xylene: It will be strong in the short term [50] - PTA: It will rebound in the short term as the market focuses on potential anti - involution policies [51] - MEG: It will rebound due to the supply contraction caused by multiple device overhauls [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different trends for each commodity. Some commodities are facing downward pressure, while others are in a state of shock or rebound [1][6]. - International and domestic factors, such as trade relations, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions, have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market showed mixed fluctuations, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestic oils and fats showed mixed fluctuations yesterday, with soybean oil being stronger and palm oil and rapeseed oil being weaker. The US government shutdown affected data updates, and the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with a high probability of a decrease in yield. Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% from the 1st to the 25th of October, and exports decreased. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation in October [6]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly, while soybean oil will fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. Protein Meals - **View**: Positive signals from China - US relations led to a jump in US soybean prices and pressure on domestic soybean meal. - **Logic**: Internationally, China - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new crops are on the market, and Brazilian soybean exports have increased. Domestically, short - term profit margins for soybean crushing are gradually recovering, and the market lacks upward momentum. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1080. The price of soybean meal is under short - term pressure, and the decline depends on China's purchase volume of US soybeans. Consider soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spreads and option double - buying strategies [7]. Corn and Starch - **View**: The increase in wet corn supply led to a decline in both futures and spot prices. - **Logic**: The current decline in corn prices is due to high arrival volumes. Although there were short - term factors supporting the price last week, such as low inventory of grain - using enterprises and slow harvesting progress, there are still downward drivers in the future, including high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area [9]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the profit - taking rhythm. In the long term, consider a near - far month reverse spread strategy [9]. Pigs - **View**: The reduction in supply at the end of the month led to a rebound in pig prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. In the near - term, the price is still weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Consider reverse spread strategies [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price is consolidating at a high level, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The recent rebound is due to a short - term bottom and relatively low valuation. The slow registration of warehouse receipts has become a focus for bulls. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter. However, due to the large proportion of macro factors, it is difficult to determine the price trend [12]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, the price is expected to fluctuate and find a bottom [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market shows signs of weakness. - **Logic**: The decline in the price of raw material butadiene and high production volumes are the main reasons for the weakness. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than the production growth rate, resulting in high inventory levels [14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14]. Cotton - **View**: Cost support makes the cotton price relatively strong, but pay attention to macro - level disturbances. - **Logic**: In the north of Xinjiang, the cotton purchase is almost finished, while in the south, the purchase price is rising, increasing the processing cost. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the commercial inventory is starting to accumulate. Pay attention to the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations. The price may face pressure above the range of 13600 - 13800 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but pay attention to the upper - level pressure [14]. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is fluctuating at a low level. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, leading to a downward trend in prices. In the short - term, the international market is relatively loose, and the domestic market has a marginal reduction in supply pressure. However, the price may face downward pressure again when the northern hemisphere enters the new sugar supply period [15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds [15]. Pulp - **View**: The financial trading atmosphere has driven up the pulp futures price, but the futures - spot price gap remains. - **Logic**: Although the pulp futures price has rebounded, the spot price has not increased significantly. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is an over - supply situation for hardwood pulp. The futures price is close to the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. However, pay attention to the impact of restricted waste pulp imports on the market [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, as changes in waste pulp may cause market fluctuations [16]. Double - Glued Paper - **View**: More paper mills are stabilizing prices, and the market is trading within a range. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains due to new production capacity in the South China region. The demand from downstream printing factories is weak, and the decline in the price of upstream wood pulp has limited support for the cost. Although some paper mills are trying to stabilize prices, the market expectation is still pessimistic [17]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to new factors that may affect market sentiment [17]. Logs - **View**: Negative factors have led to a decline in log prices with reduced positions. - **Logic**: Informationally, the expected cancellation of the special port fee has led to long - position liquidation. Fundamentally, the concentrated arrival of goods at ports and weak sales of related products have put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to be in a weak state, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in the future [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with a weakening fundamental situation and repeated information - based games [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports provide daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, covering price differences, spreads, spot prices, and related economic indicators [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: IF, IH, IC, and IM期现价差, with values such as IF期现价差 at 11.70% and changes like -31.62 compared to the previous day [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Various inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM, e.g., IF跨期价差次月 - 当月 at - 16.60 with a change of - 3.00 [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like 中证500/沪深300 at 1.5648 with a change of 0.0074 [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis for TS, TF, T, and TL, e.g., TS基差 at 0.2010 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0023 [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads for different periods of TS, TF, T, and TL, such as TS跨期价差当季 - 下季 at 0.0900 with a change of 0.0120 [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different Treasury bond futures, e.g., TS - TF at - 3.3570 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0740 [2] Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic Futures**: AU2512合约 closed at 934.14 yuan/gram on October 27, down 0.42% from October 24; AG2512合约 closed at 11394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55% [3] - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX黄金主力合约 closed at 3997.00, down 3.15%; COMEX白银主力合约 closed at 46.83 dollars/ounce, down 3.26% [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4111.56, down 0.36%; London silver at 48.62 dollars/ounce, down 0.47% [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - 沪金主力 at - 3.85 with a change of - 1.08 and a 1 - year historical percentile of 21.60% [3] Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route, e.g., MAERSK马士基 at 2358 dollars/FEU on October 28, down 0.25% from October 27 [4] - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) at 1312.71 on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; SCFIS (US West route) at 1107.32, up 28.24% [4] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 at 1571.6, down 1.84%; the basis of the main contract (EC2512) at - 167.6, with a change of 28.7 and a percentage change of - 14.62% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container运力供给 at 3328.67 FTEU on October 28, with a negligible change; Shanghai port准班率 at 42.77 in September, up 133.59% from August [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] Core Viewpoints - The corn market is under price pressure due to the ample supply of new grain. The harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure remains high, keeping prices under downward pressure. However, the supportive effect of policy purchases is emerging. The Northeast production area has stabilized, while the North China production area is in the recovery phase after weather disruptions, with short - term supply increasing and prices weak. The decreasing supply of high - quality grain will support future prices [2]. - On Monday, the corn futures market declined across the board, with a near - term weak and long - term strong contract structure. The spot market pressure has pushed prices into a short - term correction phase, and prices are likely in a bottom - grinding stage. The starch futures market followed the corn market down. Supported by stable corn prices in the Northeast, the starch spot price remained stable, with moderate trading and high inventory limiting price increases [2]. - On Monday, CBOT corn futures rose by over 1%, as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations boosted export expectations, pushing the futures price to a phased high [2]. 利多 and 利空 Factors Bullish Factors - The number of state reserve purchase points is gradually increasing, clearly aiming to support prices and limit price drops [2]. - The shortage of high - quality corn in North China will become more apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [2]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level [2]. - Price rebounds have led to increased selling pressure, and the market focus has returned to supply pressure, pushing prices into a short - term correction phase [2]. Price and Basis Data Corn and Starch Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis | Location | Corn Price (Yuan/Ton) | Price Change (Yuan/Ton) | Location | Corn Starch Price (Yuan/Ton) | Price Change (Yuan/Ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2150 | - 10 | Shandong | 2760 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2290 | - 10 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2460 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 38 | 11 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 335 | 16 | [3] Corn and Starch Futures Prices | Contract | October 24, 2025 | October 27, 2025 | Price Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2110 | 2098 | - 12 | - 0.57% | | Corn 01 | 2133 | 2112 | - 21 | - 0.98% | | Corn 03 | 2161 | 2140 | - 21 | - 0.97% | | Corn 05 | 2237 | 2217 | - 20 | - 0.89% | | Corn 07 | 2258 | 2240 | - 18 | - 0.80% | | Corn 09 | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2423 | 2431 | 8 | 0.33% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2441 | 2425 | - 16 | - 0.66% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2462 | 2442 | - 20 | - 0.81% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2558 | 2545 | - 13 | - 0.51% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2574 | 2559 | - 15 | - 0.58% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2619 | 2598 | - 21 | - 0.80% | | Wheat Average Price | 2499 | 2499 | 0 | 0.00% | [3][5] US Corn Price and Import Profit | Item | Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | Import Profit (Yuan/Ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 428 | 4 | 0.94% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1083.5 | 23 | 2.17% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 526 | 13 | 2.53% | | | US Gulf Port CIF Price | 2128.05 | - 6.81 | - 0.32% | 171.95 | | US West Coast Port CIF Price | 2005.89 | 24.07 | 1.21% | 294.11 | [28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆★, the meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and weather. Overall, the market is complex, and most commodities are recommended for temporary waiting and seeing or short - term operations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot sales basis was mostly stable. Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices were stable with a slight increase, raising new cotton costs and supporting the market. The purchase by ginneries was cautious, and the price increase space was limited. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for yarn spinning enterprises and cautious purchasing by traders. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound with limited space, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar was weak. Brazilian production data in the second half of September was bearish, with increased cane crushing and sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile, and the market focused on the next season's output estimate. The expected sugar output in Guangxi for the 25/26 season was good, and sugar prices were expected to remain weakly volatile [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. In Shandong, the purchase price of new - season bagged Fuji increased by 0.5 - 0.7 yuan per catty, but the purchase progress was slow, and the volume was small. In Shaanxi, good - quality apples were mostly pre - ordered, and the current supply was of lower quality. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly, and the output might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and it was recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, the futures market sentiment was divided. The price of domestic natural rubber was stable with a slight increase, and the price of synthetic rubber decreased slightly. The global natural rubber supply was in a high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased slightly. The domestic tire operating rate rebounded slightly, and the inventory of finished products increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of butadiene rubber increased. The strategy was to consider rebound opportunities after a sharp decline [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 23, the inventory in Chinese ports decreased by 1.9 million tons to 205.5 million tons. In September, the imported pulp volume increased by 27.25 million tons year - on - year. The port inventory was relatively high, and the demand was average. The overseas broad - leaf pulp price increased, narrowing the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp and supporting the coniferous pulp. It was recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The log futures price decreased significantly with position reduction, but the fundamentals changed little. In October, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased, and the domestic spot price was weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The domestic supply was expected to remain low. The port delivery volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, supporting the price. The low inventory also supported the price, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean No. 1, Egg [1] - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Live Pig [1] - **Neutral Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] Core Views - The overall supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not a major issue, but if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates and persists, the supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year [3]. - The prices of rapeseed oil are expected to face pressure due to the risk of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed meal may be boosted by the increase in oilseed prices in the short term [7]. - Corn prices are expected to continue their weak performance at the bottom, and the timing of the inflection point remains unclear [8]. - After the rebound of pig prices, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year [9]. - Egg prices may experience a decline in the medium term, and short - term risk avoidance is necessary [10]. Summary by Category Soybean No. 1 - The price of domestic soybeans has pulled back from its high, and there has been some profit - taking after the recent rebound. The spot market has active participants in acquisitions, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has decreased. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of domestic soybean spot and policies at home and abroad [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Last week, the futures contract of Dalian soybeans rebounded from the bottom with a large reduction in positions. The price of US soybeans jumped on Monday. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting at the end of the month [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the market sentiment for US agricultural product exports has improved. The price of US soybean futures has risen, and the import cost has increased slightly. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is poor. The price of soybean oil is stronger than that of soybean meal and palm oil. Attention should be paid to the performance of the Brazilian soybean premium market [4]. - The futures price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and the price of palm oil may face pressure in the short term. In the long term, there is still support for palm oil prices, and medium - to long - term investors can consider buying vegetable oils at low prices [6]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relationships are the most important variables in the oilseed market. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills is expected to remain low, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in East China may increase. Rapeseed oil prices are expected to face pressure, while rapeseed meal may be boosted in the short term [7]. Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn decreased by 1.03% with an increase in positions. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the price rebound has ended. New grain in Jilin may be concentrated on the market again, and the price in Shandong continues to weaken. The downstream demand remains at a rigid level [8]. Live Pig - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded, and the futures price has followed suit. Although the supply pressure is still high, the price difference between fattening pigs has promoted second - round fattening and pen - holding behavior. After the rebound, a short - selling strategy is recommended [9]. Egg - The spot price of eggs has increased significantly, and the near - month futures contract has followed suit. The short - term risk of further price increases should be avoided, and in the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens. There is also potential pressure from cold - stored eggs on the spot market [10].

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/10/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1263.50 | +15.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1779.50 | +22.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 927240.00 | +2232.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 50013.00 | +241.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -64871.00 | -5917.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4476.00 | -484.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 62.50 | -1.50↓ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 130.50 | +1.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand picked up, and the cost support rose. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed different trends [6]. - **Cost**: The production in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 was at a loss of 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the spot price in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons. The main port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Expected Trend**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The planned output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The output of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in production and inventory. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is currently at a loss, while the production of components is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Expected Trend**: The supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference of some contracts increased. The inventory and production showed different trends in different regions [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference, inventory, and production of related products also showed different trends [17]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - base difference and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production, and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through charts [20][25][29][36]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trend, price - base difference trend, and inventory trend are presented through charts [22][23]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, consumption, import, and export of industrial silicon in different periods [39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, consumption, import, and export of polysilicon in different periods [68]. 3.6 Downstream Product Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented through charts [45][47][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy are presented through charts [55][58][59]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry are presented through charts [71][74][77]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities, such as "follow oil price rebound, short PXN on rallies" for paraxylene, "long PX short PTA, unilateral trend rebound" for PTA, etc. [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors like supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic events to evaluate the price trends of each commodity. For example, for some commodities, it expects short - term rebounds due to factors like improved demand expectations or cost support, while for others, it anticipates long - term downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand [2][7][39] Summary by Commodity Paraxylene (PX) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral price short - term rebound, PXN short on rallies [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: This week, there were few changes in PX devices. Domestic device operating rate was 85.9% (+1%), and Asian overall load operating rate was 78.5% (+0.5%). Next week, some devices will restart or postpone maintenance. PX supply is slightly tight, and PTA load has increased [7] Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral trend is strong in the short - term [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: New devices have started operation, and some devices have adjusted their loads. Polyester load remains stable, downstream orders have improved, and inventory has decreased. Market demand expectations are positive [8] Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Oil - based plant operating rate has decreased, and import arrivals are lower than expected. Some devices are under maintenance, and coal - based device profits are negative [9] Rubber - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. China's natural rubber imports in October are expected to decrease, and tire production capacity utilization has increased [11][13] Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Central price moves up supported by macro - sentiment [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices of some products have risen. But the industry faces high supply pressure, and inventory has increased. However, due to many maintenance plans in November, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [14][17] Asphalt - **Price Trend**: Follow oil price fluctuations [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume and positions have decreased. Spot prices in some regions have increased, refinery operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory has changed little [19][32] Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Price Trend**: Mainly sideways [2][34] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have fluctuated slightly. Raw material oil prices have rebounded, but supply pressure will increase in the future [34][35] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Trend**: Weak trend [2][38] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are flat, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly form downward pressure, but there is a short - term rebound due to factors like oil price rebound and supply reduction [38][39] Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: Far - month valuation is suppressed [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Alumina enterprises' high inventory puts pressure on caustic soda spot prices. Although there is new demand in some regions, the impact of alumina production reduction cannot be ignored, and cost has decreased [42][44] Pulp - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices are stable. Supply pressure persists, and demand is weak [49][50] Glass - **Price Trend**: Raw sheet prices are stable [2][52] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable, and downstream orders are average [53] Methanol - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][55] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased, trading volume has decreased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Port inventory has increased slightly, and the market is under supply pressure, but there is support from port logistics [56][58] Urea - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Short - term rebound is due to macro - events and increased demand from compound fertilizer factories, but long - term pressure remains due to high supply and weak demand [61][63] Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: Spot market changes little [2][65] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Device supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is average [66] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Price Trend**: Limited upward drive, focus on cost changes [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Some industrial device operating rates have increased. CP paper prices have decreased [68][72] Propylene - **Price Trend**: Short - term weak sideways due to loose supply and demand [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices have decreased slightly, and supply and demand are relatively loose [68] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: Low - level sideways [2][75] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, inventory is high, and export growth may slow down [75] Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Uptrend continues, strong in the short - term [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices in various regions have increased, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased [78] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, but the price increase is relatively smaller [78] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Sideways consolidation [2][80] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have changed, trading volume and positions have changed. Freight rates of some routes have increased, and shipping capacity has changed [80]