光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.49 美元至 58.01 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.60 美元至 62.07 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.65%。SC2601 以 439.7 元/桶收盘，上涨 7.4 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.71%。海关统计数据显示，2025 年 11 月份，中国原 | | | | 油进口量为 5089.1 万吨，环比增加 5.2%，同比增加 4.9%；1-11 | | | | 月份，中国累计原油进口量为 5.22 亿吨，同比增 3.2%。从排名前 | | | | 三的进口来源国数量来看：进口俄罗斯原油 835.1 万吨，同比下 | | | | 降 3.4%；进口沙特阿拉伯原油 754.8 万吨，同比增加 8.4%；进口 | | | 原油 | 巴西原油 488.7 万吨，同比增加 31.5%。市场持续关注俄乌局势， | 震荡 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks continue to rise, driven by increasing gold prices and favorable market conditions, with significant gains observed in various companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shandong Gold increased by over 4%, Zhaojin Mining by 3.9%, Lingbao Gold by 3%, and several other gold companies also saw gains of over 2% [2] - The spot gold price accelerated its rise, reaching a new historical high of $4,490.88 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 71% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to traders betting on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice in 2026, alongside President Trump's advocacy for a looser monetary policy [1] - Geopolitical risks have further enhanced the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver [1] Group 3: Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs and other banks predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a baseline forecast of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, indicating greater upside risks [1] - ETF investors are beginning to compete with central banks for limited physical supply of gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, driven by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical risks, but a significant risk of forced selling looms due to the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 [1][7][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals are on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold prices nearing a 70% increase and silver prices soaring nearly 140% year-to-date [8]. - Platinum and palladium have also seen remarkable gains, with platinum rising to over $2,075 per ounce, marking a nearly 130% annual increase, and palladium reaching approximately $1,802 per ounce, with an expected annual increase of over 95% [12]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The macroeconomic backdrop includes a weakening US dollar and widespread expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite officials predicting only one [10]. - Increased military activity near Venezuela has added geopolitical risk premiums to the market [10]. - Chinese trading activity has significantly contributed to the surge in platinum prices, with trading volumes on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surpassing those of the New York Mercantile Exchange [11][13]. Group 3: Risks and Upcoming Events - JPMorgan warns of a potential technical sell-off during the January 2026 rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, as gold and silver have significantly outperformed the market over the past three years [7][19]. - Passive funds tracking the index, with over $60 billion in assets, may be forced to sell approximately 9% of the total open contracts in silver and about 3% in gold during the rebalancing period [20][21]. - The upcoming sell-off could counteract the traditional seasonal strength typically seen in precious metals at the beginning of the year, leading to potential market volatility [21].

消息上，周一纽约时段，现货黄金价格加速上涨，亚洲早盘，现货黄金涨超1%，最高至4490.88美元/盎 司，续创历史新高，年内累涨超71%。分析认为，最新一波上涨源于交易员押注美联储将在2026年降息 两次，美国总统特朗普也公开主张较宽松的货币政策，利率下行通常会给不用支付利息的贵金属提供支 撑。与此同时，地缘政治风险也强化了黄金和白银的避险属性。 港股黄金股继续上涨行情，其中，山东黄金涨超4%，招金矿业涨3.9%，灵宝黄金涨3%，赤峰黄金、紫 金黄金国际、珠峰黄金涨超2%，中国黄金国际、潼关黄金涨1.7%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 37.760 | 4.37% | | 01818 | 招等矿业 | 33.540 | 3.90% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 19.460 | 2.96% | | 02489 | 集海资源 | 1.120 | 2.75% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 32.620 | 2.45% | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | 155.600 | 2.44% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]

前言： 市场中最可怕的不是没有行情，不是没有机会，而是茫然，乱下单，一个不知道去哪里的人，面朝哪个 方向都是逆向，任何一个方向吹来的风将都是逆风！同样不懂交易的人，不管做多做空，行情一旦波 动，就是无妄之灾！这里没有华丽的语言，只有实实在在的交易，以及明明郎朗的操作，市场只有一个 方向，不是多头也不是空头，而是做对的方向。合理的风控+好的回报，让每个散户找到真正交易的乐 趣，而不再是自己每天苦苦的交易却换来亏损的不断加大。我一直相信选择比努力更重要，一个好的指 导老师，一个好的技术团队除了给客户带来盈利以外，更应该对客户负责任。个人交易者，凭一己之力 面对市场，很容易出现当局者迷的情况，遇见暴涨暴跌而措手不及，而如果能够有一个人在圈外看清楚 情形，给出方向，就可以做的更好。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二(12月23日)亚市早盘，现货黄金再度大幅攀升，金价刚刚触及4490.75美元/盎司，创下历史新高， 金价日内飙升逾46美元。随着投资者在评估不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势以及美国进一步降息的前景， 周二，黄金价格升至历史新高，这也是今年第50天刷新纪录。在2025年岁末之际，全 ...

易方达黄金ETF早盘延续强势，盘中涨幅达0.85%，成交活跃，显示市场避险需求持续升温；近6月累计 上涨27.31%，年内回报高达60.54%，在商品ETF中表现领先；该ETF近10个交易日获资金净流入1.8亿 元，最新规模增长355.6亿元，年内净流入额高达127.54亿元，资金中长期配置意愿坚定，流动性位居同 类前列；该基金紧密跟踪上海黄金交易所Au99.99现货实盘合约，直接挂钩高纯度实物黄金价格，无个 股风险，纯正反映国内现货市场走势，受益于全球央行持续购金、美联储降息预期升温及地缘风险溢价 抬升，黄金作为终极避险资产与抗通胀工具的长期逻辑稳固，配置价值凸显。 早盘，A股贵金属板块表现强势，黄金、白银相关个股涨幅靠前。截至上午交易时段，贵金属板块指数 上涨2.6%，其中黄金子板块表现尤为突出。国际市场方面，伦敦现货黄金价格在亚洲交易时段延续涨 势，一度触及每盎司4320美元，创下近三个月新高；白银价格同步走强。板块的亮眼表现主要受到多重 宏观因素支撑：市场对美联储将于2026年上半年开启降息周期的预期持续发酵，美元指数延续弱势格 局，为以美元计价的黄金提供了直接上行动力。地缘政治方面，红海航运通道紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a historic high, breaking records for the 50th time this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Gold prices surpassed $4,470 per ounce for the first time, following a 2.4% increase in the previous trading day, marking the largest single-day gain in over a month [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 70%, largely due to increased purchases by central banks and significant inflows into gold ETFs [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset has strengthened amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the situation in Venezuela [1] - The U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government by intercepting oil tankers [1] Group 3: Market Trends - Gold is on track to achieve its best annual performance since 1979 [1] - According to the World Gold Council, total holdings in gold ETFs have increased every month this year, except for May [1]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Energy Markets - The global energy market is currently facing significant geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Caribbean, Black Sea, and Middle East, raising concerns over supply disruptions [1][5] - The U.S. Coast Guard has intensified its interception actions against Venezuelan oil exports, marking a significant escalation in the blockade of Venezuelan oil [3][4] - Israel is planning new military actions against Iran's missile facilities, which could further destabilize the region and impact oil supply dynamics [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Movements - International oil prices surged significantly due to the aforementioned geopolitical risks, with Brent crude futures rising by $1.60 (2.7%) to $62.07 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increasing by $1.49 (2.6%) to $58.01 per barrel [1] - Market participants are reassessing the risks associated with Venezuelan oil supply disruptions, as the likelihood of U.S. sanctions impacting exports has increased [3] - The attack on energy infrastructure in the Black Sea has heightened market sensitivity, contributing to rising oil prices as traders react to the vulnerabilities in energy supply chains [6]

责任编辑：王永生 黄金在亚洲早盘交易中创下历史新高，因地缘政治风险升温通常会增强这种贵金属的避险吸引力。洲际 交易所数据显示，现货黄金上涨0.3%，报每盎司4，455.89美元，早些时候曾触及每盎司4，459.59美 元。Naga的市场分析师Frank Walbaum表示，尽管外交努力仍在继续，但东欧实现停火的前景似乎越来 越渺茫。该市场分析师称，中东紧张局势依然严峻，同时美国和委内瑞拉之间的摩擦已经升级。 黄金在亚洲早盘交易中创下历史新高，因地缘政治风险升温通常会增强这种贵金属的避险吸引力。洲际 交易所数据显示，现货黄金上涨0.3%，报每盎司4，455.89美元，早些时候曾触及每盎司4，459.59美 元。Naga的市场分析师Frank Walbaum表示，尽管外交努力仍在继续，但东欧实现停火的前景似乎越来 越渺茫。该市场分析师称，中东紧张局势依然严峻，同时美国和委内瑞拉之间的摩擦已经升级。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 ...