Group 1 - The price of spot gold rose sharply on the afternoon of the 7th, approaching the $3400 mark, with an increase of over 0.8% during the day, while COMEX gold also saw an increase of over 0.9%, closing at $3378.56 per ounce [1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces (approximately 2300.41 tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons), marking the ninth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with weak U.S. non-farm data and geopolitical risks, has provided support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory has surged to a historical high of 36 tons, nearly doubling from the previous month, indicating active trading in the futures market and strong demand for arbitrage trading [3] - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 per ounce to $3500 per ounce, and adjusting its expected trading range from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about potential supply surplus and demand slowdown [1][4][5] - Oil prices have fallen sharply in August, marking the longest consecutive decline since 2021, with Brent and WTI crude oil hovering around $66 and $64 per barrel respectively [1] - The significant pullback in oil prices is primarily attributed to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums, particularly following positive signals regarding potential U.S.-Russia negotiations [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ has decided to relax production limits, raising investor concerns about a possible supply surplus later this year [5] - The Brent crude spot price spread has narrowed to a premium structure of $0.53 per barrel, down from over $1 a month ago, indicating a significant easing of short-term supply tightness [6] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth due to broad trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which poses a potential threat to energy demand [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The weak US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the continuous gold - buying by central banks supports the prices of precious metals. The prices of precious metals are likely to rise and investors are advised to buy on dips, while being vigilant about the potential rebound of US consumer - end inflation caused by additional tariffs [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data in the US - **Employment**: The number of non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, higher than the previous value. The average hourly wage rate in July was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value [4][43]. - **Inflation**: In June, the CPI and core CPI annual rates were 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in July were 4.4% and 3.6% respectively, lower than expected and the previous value [4][13]. - **Manufacturing and Services**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, lower than expected and the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the previous value and expected [34]. - **Housing**: The 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates at the end of July decreased to 5.85% and 6.72% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in June decreased month - on - month [38][41]. - **Retail and Consumption**: The retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the previous value and expected. The personal consumption expenditure month - on - month rate in June was flat with expectations but higher than the previous value [50][57]. - **Durable Goods**: The new orders for durable goods month - on - month rate in June was - 9.3%, higher than expected but lower than the previous value [53]. - **Debt and Finance**: The US outstanding public debt increased by $61.2 billion compared with last month. The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was about $84.4 billion. The OFR financial stress index decreased [21][22][27]. 3.2 Central Bank Policies in Other Countries - **European Central Bank**: The eurozone's July CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, getting out of the technical recession. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates at most once in the second half of the year. The ECB is reducing its balance sheet [61][63]. - **Bank of England**: The UK's CPI and core CPI annual rates in June were 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [66]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of 2025 has cooled [69]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market - **Geopolitical and Central Bank Buying**: The global geopolitical risk index decreased in July, but uncertainties remain. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month [72][75]. - **ETF and Futures Positions**: The US gold ETF volatility index increased. The non - commercial long - short position ratio of COMEX gold futures increased, while that of COMEX silver futures decreased [77][82][85]. - **Inventory**: The gold inventories in SHFE and COMEX increased, while the silver inventories in SHFE decreased and those in SGE and COMEX increased [88]. - **Price Ratios**: The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is at a relatively high level, and the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" are also high. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities of the "gold - silver ratio" and long - position opportunities of the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" [91][94].

来源：智昇财论 周四（8月7日）金价延续涨势，现货黄金强势突破3400美元心理关口，最终收于3395.65美元/盎司。周五（8月8日）亚洲早盘，金价一度冲高至 3408.71美元，创下7月23日以来的逾两周新高，避险需求成为推动金价走高的核心动力。全球贸易紧张局势加剧、美国劳动力市场数据疲软以及 美联储降息预期的持续升温，共同为黄金提供了强劲支撑。与此同时，地缘政治的不确定性也为金价的上涨增添了助力。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至8月2日当周，初请失业金人数增加7000人，达到22.6万人，为一个月来的最高水平。这一数据略高于市场预期， 暗示美国劳动力市场正在放缓。此外，7月新增就业岗位远低于预期，且前两个月就业数据被大幅下修近26万个，这一令人震惊的调整引发了市场 对经济放缓的担忧。特朗普甚至因此解雇了美国劳工统计局局长，引发投资者对官方数据质量的质疑。尽管初请失业金人数有所上升，但经济学 家指出，劳动力市场整体仍保持稳定，雇主倾向于通过自然减员而非大规模裁员来应对经济压力。这种"不招人、不裁人"的趋势使得失业率维持 在相对较低的4.2%。然而，续请失业金人数升至197.4万人，为2021年11月以来最高， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight news that Trump and Putin will meet in the coming days has significantly increased the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing oil prices to drop again. Oil prices are approaching the lower limit of the previous range. India may shift some of its import share to the Middle East due to the threat of sanctions on Russian oil, increasing the supply tightness in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has raised its official export prices to keep prices firm during the peak season, which may support domestic crude oil prices. The medium - term price still has upward support. Short - term, pay attention to the results of the Trump - Putin meeting, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate greatly. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium and long term, wait for the end of the peak season and an increase in supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days; the US President Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil; OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics. The situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.38 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.81 per barrel. The basis was 11.14 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending August 1, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.845 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.591 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.453 million barrels. As of August 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, unchanged, which is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, oil prices will operate in the range of 495 - 503, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Russia - US Summit**: Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit of the two heads of state in the near future. The market's reaction to this news has led to a decline in oil prices. WTI crude oil has fallen below $64 per barrel [5]. - **US Crude Oil Exports**: In July, US crude oil exports dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 3.1 million barrels per day, due to domestic supply shortages and price increases of WTI futures [5]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The US may extend the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and may also consider tariffs on China [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent crude oil decreased by $0.46 (- 0.69%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), SC crude oil increased by $0.10 (0.02%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.95 (- 1.35%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, and other crude oils in the spot market have changed. UK Brent decreased by $1.60 (- 2.30%), WTI decreased by $0.47 (- 0.73%), etc. [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show changes in US crude oil inventories. For example, for the week ending August 1, API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [18].

今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为788元/克至847元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于766元/克 至815元/克。 知名人士Peter Grant敏锐洞察到当前形势，他指出，当下地缘政治紧张态势的不断加剧与国际贸易冲突 的持续升温相互交织、叠加共振，已然在黄金市场形成了一场堪称"完美风暴"的局面，为金价的稳步攀 升提供了坚实且持久的支撑力量。 克里姆林宫正式发布消息称，俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普计划在未来数日内展开会晤，此次会谈 的核心议题聚焦于推动乌克兰战争取得突破性进展。然而，特朗普此前放出狠话，扬言要对俄罗斯及其 石油进口国采取新的制裁措施，其中就包括对印度施加额外的关税壁垒，甚至不排除将制裁大棒挥向中 国的可能性。这一系列强硬举措宛如惊雷乍响，在全球市场上引发了强烈的连锁反应：俄罗斯股市逆势 上扬，卢布汇率也随之走高；更为重要的是，市场的避险情绪被再度点燃，黄金作为避险资产的需求随 之水涨船高。乌克兰总统泽连斯基在此关键时刻郑重发声，强调欧洲国家必须深度参与到和平谈判进程 之中。这一表态深刻揭示了地缘政治博弈背后错综复杂的利益纠葛，预示着其将持续对市场情绪产生深 远影响。 【最新黄金期货行情 ...

◆来源：21世纪经济报道、智通财经 Wind数据显示，7日下午现货黄金短线上扬，逼近3400美元关口，日内一度涨超0.8%，COMEX黄金也 上涨超0.9%。截至17时，现货黄金报36378.56美元/盎司。 最新数据显示，中国7月末黄金储备报7396万盎司（约2300.41吨），环比增加6万盎司（约1.86吨），为 连续第9个月增持黄金。 消息面上，美联储降息预期持续升温，叠加美国非农数据疲弱及地缘政治风险，为黄金提供支撑。与此 同时，上海期货交易所黄金库存已跃升至历史新高的36吨，较上月几乎翻倍，反映出期货市场交投活 跃，套利交易需求旺盛。 近日，素有"黄金空头"之称的花旗转向看涨黄金，将未来三个月的黄金价格预测从3300美元/盎司上调 至3500美元/盎司，并将预期交易区间从每盎司3100至3500美元调整为3300至3600美元。 终审：臧立 编辑：孙懿辞 初审：梁爽 复审：曹光宇 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Global trade tensions are increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with Trump's tariffs on imports raising the average U.S. import tariff to its highest level in a century, leading to heightened inflation and economic slowdown concerns [2] - U.S. labor market data shows weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, and the market is increasingly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability exceeding 91% [2] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, particularly in the Middle East and due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is further enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has maintained a strong upward trend, with key support levels at 3380, 3371, and 3365, while resistance is noted at 3432 [5][8] - On the four-hour chart, gold is likely in the fifth wave of an upward trend, with critical support at 3350/3349, and the market should be monitored for potential resistance at previous highs of 3438/3439 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a sudden surge in prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold [7]. Price Movements - As of 15:38, NYMEX palladium rose by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum increased by 1.72%, spot silver expanded its gains to 1%, and spot gold rose approximately 0.8% to $3395 per ounce [3][4]. - COMEX gold was reported at $3466 per ounce, reflecting a 0.73% increase [5]. Market Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The demand value increased significantly by 45% year-on-year, setting a new historical high [7]. Investment Trends - Gold ETF investments were a key driver of total gold demand, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [9]. - The total demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% to 307 tons, with Chinese demand increasing by 44% to 115 tons [9]. Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with mine production reaching a historical high in Q2 2025 [7]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2 2025, although the pace of purchases has slowed [9]. Jewelry Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption declined by 14% year-on-year in Q2 2025, nearing 2020's low levels, despite a rise in value to $36 billion [10]. - In China, gold jewelry demand fell to 69 tons, a 20% year-on-year decrease, marking the weakest performance for Q2 since 2007 [10]. Market Outlook - The strong performance of gold in the first half of 2025 suggests potential price stability in the second half, although macroeconomic uncertainties may provide further support for gold prices [8]. - The high-end jewelry market remains robust, driven by emerging brands, while traditional retail faces challenges due to declining consumer demand [12].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a sudden surge in prices on August 7, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold [1][5]. Price Movements - As of 15:38, NYMEX palladium rose by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum increased by 1.72%, spot silver expanded its gains to 1%, and spot gold rose approximately 0.8%, reaching $3,395 per ounce, while COMEX gold was reported at $3,466 per ounce, up 0.73% [3][5]. - The London gold price was reported at $3,395.67, reflecting a gain of 0.80% from the previous close [4]. Market Demand and Supply - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1,249 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In value terms, this represented a significant 45% increase compared to the previous year, setting a new historical high [6]. - Gold supply also saw a slight increase, with mine production reaching a historical high in Q2, resulting in a total supply growth of 3% to 1,249 tons. Recycled gold supply grew by 4% year-on-year but remained relatively subdued in the context of high gold prices [6]. Market Sentiment - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 per ounce to $3,500 per ounce, and adjusting the expected trading range from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 [6]. - The strong investment activity in the first half of 2025 highlighted gold's role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks, with gold prices increasing by 26% over the same period, outperforming most mainstream asset classes [6].