Group 1 - The market anticipates a new round of supply-side reform in the alumina industry, leading to a significant rise in futures prices, although the actual impact is more emotional than substantial due to limited old production capacity [4] - The definition of "old facilities" includes those in operation for over 20 years, with potential elimination of some high-cost capacity, but the direct impact is limited, affecting only 4 to 5 million tons of capacity, which is a small proportion [5] - Some companies are expected to begin maintenance in late July, which may tighten the current spot supply of alumina, although overall supply remains excessive with national inventories continuing to rise [6][7] Group 2 - Despite expectations of long-term supply surplus, some alumina companies are entering maintenance periods, leading to a projected decrease in production, while spot market supply is tightening and traders are maintaining a strong price support stance [7] - The low inventory levels at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have led to a significant reduction in warehouse receipts, creating a market squeeze sentiment, although the opening of the selling delivery window suggests an expectation of increased inventory in the future [8]

天风证券指出，从7月1日重要会议再提"反内卷"，到近期工信部重要点名十大重点行业"稳增长"，"反 内卷"逻辑或由点到面、全面开花。强政策预期下，市场情绪提振，周五夜盘大宗商品迎来普涨。钢铁 和有色是被点名的"十大重点行业"之首，工信部特意提到铜、铝、黄金三个子产业高质量发展，重视程 度可见一斑，商品端已提前演绎，务必重视权益端行情。 "反内卷"激发供给侧改革猜想，今日（7月21日）有色金属板块表现强势！雅化集团、盛和资源涨停， 华钰矿业涨超8%，天山铝业涨逾7%，北方稀土、神火股份等个股大幅跟涨。 热门ETF方面，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）震荡上扬，场内价格猛拉3.15%，斩 获日线3连阳，继续刷新年内高点（1.277元）。 拉长时间来看，有色龙头ETF（159876）自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨27.32%，大幅跑赢沪指 （14.96%）、沪深300（13.82%）等宽基指数。 数据来源：Wind，统计区间：2025.4.8-2025.7.21。注：中证有色金属指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020年，35.84%；2021年，35.89%；2022年，-19.22%；2 ...

周一（7月21日），A股市场全天高开高走，沪指、创业板指双双创年内新高。沪深两市全天成交额1.7 万亿元，较上个交易日放量1289亿元。大盘走强叠加业绩驱动，A股顶流券商ETF（512000）场内放量 涨逾1%日线3连阳，近5日连续吸金达5.95亿元。 盘面上，受供给端、需求端利好，大基建情绪引爆，化工、有色等周期股满屏涨停。揽尽有色金属行业 龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）震荡上扬，场内价格猛拉3.15%，斩获日线3连阳，继续刷新年内高点 （1.277元）。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）高开高走场内收涨2.71%，全天溢价放量， 或有资金进场布局。 | મ્દ્રિક | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159876 | 主 有色龙头ETF | 127 c | 3.15% | 588.55 F | | 516020 | 主 化工ETF | 0.644 c | 2.71% | 3650.30万 | | 516360 | 主 新材料ETF | 0.714 c | 1.56% | 277.01万 | | 5 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have initiated an assessment of aging equipment in the petrochemical industry, with provinces like Hunan and Shandong already starting this evaluation [1] - The aging chemical equipment, some over 30 to 40 years old, poses safety risks due to corrosion and outdated design standards, necessitating updates and replacements [1] - A draft method for assessing aging chemical installations has been released, focusing on facilities that have reached their design lifespan or have been in operation for over 20 years [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the introduction of a growth plan for the petrochemical sector may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and an improved competitive landscape [2] - Key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are set to receive growth plans aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of inefficient capacity [2] - Analysts suggest that the petrochemical sector may need to control capacity and approve fewer new projects due to potential overcapacity [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of domestic refining capacity is expected to slow down in 2024, with a significant focus on controlling crude oil processing capacity to remain under 1 billion tons by 2025 [3] - Policies aimed at phasing out inefficient refining capacity are expected to continue, potentially leading to a reduction in refining capacity growth and an improved competitive environment [3] - Future projections indicate that refining capacity growth may slow significantly from 2025 to 2026, with possible negative growth in 2027 to 2028 [3] Group 4 - Private refining companies are focusing on shareholder returns, maintaining high dividend payout ratios, and entering a phase of improving free cash flow [4] - Current valuations of private refining companies may be below the equity value of their refining assets, indicating potential long-term investment value [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on leading refining companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Sinopec, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].

在22500点下方横盘了一个季度的沪锌，周五夜盘突然大爆发，期价量价齐升，大涨逾2.5%，触及三个 月多月高位。 一德期货有色研发中心铅锌分析师 张圣涵：近期国内即将发布钢铁、有色等重点行业稳增长方案，国 内"反内卷"政策积极推进，"优结构 淘汰落后产能引发市场对于供给侧改革再次出现预期。同时美联储 降息呼声渐起，海外情绪缓和。宏观偏积极预期使得大批资金涌入前期低估值品种，黑色系走强同时也 带动了锌价上行。 弘业期货金融研究院金属研究员 蔡丽：宏观情绪利好氛围偏高，锌涨幅靠前。上周公布的美国消费数 据表现良好，且通胀数据也相对温和，市场对美经济信心有所修复，且对降息节奏也有所期待。国内方 面，国内反内卷继续推进，淘汰落后产能优化结构存在较大的期待，市场对于锌供应端收缩有所担忧， 不过暂时并没有有色方面具体的优化方案，锌价大涨更多的是市场情绪面带动。宏观面及政策面并未对 锌供需面造成确定性影响。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员 刘超：工信部今日表态，钢铁、有色、石化、建材等十大重 点行业的稳增长方案将在近期落地，并明确"调结构、优供给、淘汰落后"。消息一出，市场对部分品种 供给收缩的预期迅速升温，带动盘面 ...

新华财经北京7月21日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场7月21日大面积上涨，其中氧化铝主力合约涨超8%；焦煤、玻璃主力合约涨超7%；纯碱、焦 炭主力合约涨超5%；工业硅主力合约涨超4%；烧碱、多晶硅、PVC、尿素主力合约涨超3%；沪锌、碳酸锂、硅铁、BR橡胶、苯乙烯、热卷、螺纹钢、铁 矿石、国际铜主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种方面，集运欧线主力合约跌超2%。 受工业和信息化部上周五有关"将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能"这一表态影响，国内氧化铝、煤炭、玻璃纯碱、硅料等多个品种7月21 日大幅飙升。截至收盘，氧化铝增仓逾万手大涨超8%，强势领涨商品市场，并刷新近五个月新高。焦煤则减仓超2.7万手大涨超7%，两品种盘中双双触及涨 停板。另外，玻璃、纯碱、硅料等过剩压力较为明显品种也不同程度走高，涨幅多在3%乃至5%以上。 市场普遍分析认为，工业和信息化部这一表态刺激了对相关行业"新一轮供给侧改革"的预期，给相关品种价格低位反弹注入了积极情绪，短期在宏观情绪影 响下，氧化铝、焦煤焦炭等品种仍有维持偏强走势的可能。 不过，虽然"反内卷"宏观叙事继续发酵对相关品种构成利多，但品种实际的基本面仍是反弹能否持 ...

犹豫 ·理解 ·共识:16年供给侧改革三部曲 市场将"反内卷"视为新一轮供给侧改革,背后关注的核心是 2016年供给侧 * 结构性改革结束了 PPI 持续 3年的负增,在中期维度上影响了股债资产配置。 本轮"反内卷"政策若顺利推进,有望改善价格持续低迷的表现,可能对资产 配置产生重要影响,股债配置或将会向股市倾斜,股票市场过去两年持续占优 的哑铃策略可能会切换至核心资产为代表的大盘成长。 在悲观中诞生,在怀疑中成长,在乐观中成熟,在兴奋中筑顶。后视镜视角下 16-18年供给侧改革是很强的市场主线,但回到当时的背景下,市场不乏犹豫、 观望、理解、共识凝聚的过程。我们认为供给侧改革涉及央地关系调整,当前 市场关注的行业属性和所有制问题并非核心。 ts of ITE: 证券研究报告 【策略快评】 本文通过复盘 15-16年供给侧改革脉络,着重回答两个问题:1、政策什么时 候明确发力?2、股市、机构投资者什么时候反应? 政策何时明确发力:15/11 财经领导小组会议,背后是地方财政压力的缓解。 * 束略研究 策略快评 2025年07月21日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:姚佩 邮箱:yaopei@hcyjs.com 执 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices indicates a volatile market, with prices reaching a peak of 45,850.0 yuan and currently at 45,345.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that the polysilicon market will primarily experience range-bound fluctuations, with stable supply and slight production increases expected in North China [2] - Donghai Futures views the polysilicon market as showing a strong upward trend, with recent price increases in N-type and P-type materials, indicating a resilient market despite recent price drops [3] - Jin Xin Futures notes that the polysilicon market is transitioning from an upward trend to high-level fluctuations, emphasizing the need for investors to monitor policy changes and supply-demand dynamics closely [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The latest N-type polysilicon price is quoted at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while P-type material is priced at 30,500 yuan/ton [3] - Recent price increases in N-type silicon wafers and battery components suggest a continued upward pressure on polysilicon prices, despite some short-term volatility [3] - The market is currently experiencing a low level of downstream demand, with no new orders being signed, which may affect future price stability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has resurfaced, leading to a new high in rebar spot prices since April [1]. - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][19]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, up 0.07% from the previous month [10][19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high since April, with a weekly increase of 0.93% [1]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91%, up 1.0 percentage points week-on-week [9][41]. - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in early July 2025 was 2.097 million tons [1][41]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.99%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20% [2]. Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.14 this week [3]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 160 yuan/ton, up 14.29% from last week [3]. Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the best-performing sector being commercial vehicles, which rose by 5.98% [3]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [4].