Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: On - the - fence - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, accompanied by a rise in the futures market, and spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of agricultural autumn fertilization, and the production of compound fertilizer for autumn fertilization is winding down. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down plants have resumed production. The demand for compound fertilizer for winter wheat is mainly for inventory clearance, and due to heavy autumn rains, the demand for winter wheat fertilization has been postponed to mid - to - late October. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. As the weather improves, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated this week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting up, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are export windows. The export volume in September was 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both port collection and departure activities. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402 per ton on the west coast and $395 per ton on the east coast. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report presents figures on urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are included, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profit - The report shows figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][37][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][51][57]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月23日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

| 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 24 日 尿素：宏观支撑，短期反弹 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,638 | 1,621 | 1 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,630 | 1,617 | 1 3 | | | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 147,829 | 121,985 | 25844 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 298,840 | 312,046 | -13206 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,484 | 5,556 | -72 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 481,912 | 394,584 | 87328 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -88 | -81 | - 7 ...

Report Summary Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 77,140 yuan/ton and closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, with a 4.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 490,920 lots, and the open interest was 419,147 lots, compared to 353,231 lots the previous day. The current basis is -3,520 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,759 lots, a change of -260 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 74,000 - 75,600 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,950 - 73,150 yuan/ton, also a change of 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously increasing, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - The weekly production increased by 242 tons to 21,308 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate link increased slightly. The recent consumer side has strong support [2]. Core View - The recent rebound of the futures market is mainly affected by continuous inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, lower - than - expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumer support. Currently, there is some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the market. After the recent continuous rise of the market, the futures market has a large premium over the spot. It is expected that the willingness of upstream hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may change from reduction to accumulation, and the market may decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. If the market continues to rebound, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Options: None [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE**: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to high supply, but the price has dropped to near the April low. With a modest improvement in demand, market sentiment has been boosted. Attention should be paid to issues such as ships involved in US - related matters and shipping fees. No recommendations were made for inter - period or inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures and spot markets: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton (a change of +44 yuan/ton or +1.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton (a change of +64 yuan/ton or +1.55% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton). Due to tight supply during the delivery period and the cancellation of the loading of some Iranian goods, the EG price increased, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - Production profit: According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton) [1] - Inventory: According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons). As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons, 3 tons lower than on Monday of this week and 1 ton lower than on Thursday of last week [2] - Overall fundamental supply - demand logic: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants are still in a state of shutdown or low - load operation. However, due to some ships being involved in US - related issues, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved, which has a certain boosting effect on the overall sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the text, only the chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR was mentioned [21] 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - No specific data was provided in the text, only charts related to downstream production, sales, and operating rates such as filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, etc. were mentioned [22][25] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to different data sources, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China showed different trends. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons [2]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers Overall, the lead price is in a range - bound pattern due to low processing fees at the mine end and tight supply of used batteries in some regions The expected trading range for this week is between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,220 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.73/ton The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of used electric vehicle batteries, used white shells, and used black shells remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On October 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,160 yuan/ton and closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, up 455 yuan/ton from the previous trading day The trading volume was 74,008 lots, an increase of 44,997 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 23,288 lots, a decrease of 3,259 lots from the previous trading day The intraday price fluctuated between 17,160 yuan/ton and 17,760 yuan/ton In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,565 yuan/ton and closed at 17,510 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous week As of October 23, the LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddles [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Despite large pressure on spot supply and a sharp drop in PG basis turning negative, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term under the influence of tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances because of concerns about future supply. There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Thursday, the price of civil LPG rebounded. In East China, it was 4267 (+8), in Shandong 4340 (+90), and in South China 4400 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4440 (+50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 89 (-21), and the November - December spread was 122 (-22). FEI and CP increased to 494.5 (+16.5) and 456 (+9) dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI monthly spread was - 10 dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was - 4 dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production in the coming week [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "DCE·Industry Tour" training program aims to enhance the quality development of state-owned enterprises and listed companies in Shandong through the application of futures derivatives in risk management and price discovery amidst global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Training Program and Objectives - The training program, guided by the Shandong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau, focuses on the practical application of futures tools to support local enterprises [1]. - The program addresses five dimensions: policy guidance, practical enterprise applications, industry pain points, digital transformation, and future planning [1]. Group 2: Industry Participation and Development - Shandong has become a key region for the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), with a comprehensive delivery system established for various commodities, including polyethylene, coking coal, and iron ore [2]. - The enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the futures market has increased, with leading companies transitioning from passive price acceptance to active risk management [2]. - Since 2024, DCE has conducted over 70 training sessions in Shandong, covering 31 enterprises and over 1,800 participants, with financial support exceeding 2.1 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Insights - The Shandong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasizes the importance of futures tools in managing risks and stabilizing costs amid increasing commodity price volatility [3]. - The Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau reported that the futures market in Shandong is robust, with 614 enterprises receiving hedging services involving approximately 540 billion yuan [4]. - The region has seen the implementation of 999 "insurance + futures" projects, with insurance payouts of 660 million yuan, leading the nation [4]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Challenges - The participation of listed companies in futures is gradually increasing, with 1,503 companies publishing hedging announcements in 2024, reflecting a 15.7% year-on-year growth [6]. - However, the overall hedging participation rate among listed companies remains low at 28.6%, with commodity hedging participation below 10% [6]. - Challenges such as the applicability of hedging accounting, information disclosure conflicts, and a shortage of professional talent are identified as barriers to greater participation [6]. Group 5: Digital Transformation and Future Directions - Digital transformation is recognized as a crucial support for enhancing the quality and efficiency of futures business, with companies urged to integrate futures tools into their operational strategies [7]. - The integration of futures operations with actual business activities is essential to avoid disconnection and maximize risk management benefits [7]. - Future initiatives will focus on deepening collaboration with government and industry leaders to promote risk management case studies and develop model enterprises in Shandong [3].