Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - **Strongly Bullish**: Platinum (2), Palladium (2) [31] - **Bullish**: Polysilicon (1) [44] - **Neutral**: Gold (0), Silver (0), Copper (0), Zinc (0), Lead (0), Aluminum (0), Nickel (0), Stainless Steel (0), Carbonate Lithium (0), Industrial Silicon (0), Iron Ore (0), Rebar (0), Hot - Rolled Coil (0), Ferrosilicon (0), Manganese Silicon (0), Coke (0), Coking Coal (0), Logs (0), MEG (0), LLDPE (0), PP (0), Caustic Soda (0), Pulp (0), Methanol (0), Urea (0), Styrene (0), LPG (0), Propylene (0), PVC (0), Fuel Oil (0), Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (0), Container Freight Index (European Line) (0), Short - Fiber (0), Bottle Chip (0), Offset Printing Paper (0), Pure Benzene (0), Peanut (0) [6][12][15][19][25][33][38][41][45][47][52][57][61][72][82][84][87][92][100][105][109][116][117][125][128][130][139][142][147][183] - **Bearish**: Tin (-1), Alumina (-1), Synthetic Rubber (-1), PX (-1), PTA (-1), Soda Ash (-1), Palm Oil (-1), Soybean Oil (-1), Sugar (-1), Live Hogs (-1) [24][25][80][72][114][159][167][181] 2. Core Views The report provides daily updates on the fundamentals, market trends, and news of various commodities, offering short - term investment suggestions for each commodity: - **Metals**: For precious metals, gold saw an expected interest rate cut, while silver was in high - level adjustment. Base metals showed different trends, such as copper with an external - strong - internal - weak price oscillation, and zinc in short - term correction [6][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: In the energy and chemical sector, PX faced a situation where demand was seasonally weakening but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. PTA was also in a high - level oscillation, while MEG's planned unplanned load reduction improved the inventory accumulation pressure and provided short - term support at the bottom [65][72]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, palm oil was in a weak oscillation due to unclear production cuts, and soybean oil was struggling to stabilize as US soybeans were performing weakly [62]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and macro - economic news. The trend intensity was neutral. The previous day's closing prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different changes, and trading volumes and open interests also fluctuated [6]. - **Silver**: It was in high - level adjustment. Similar to gold, its price, trading volume, and open interest data changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price showed an external - strong - internal - weak oscillation. Domestic and international copper futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories had corresponding changes. News such as China's economic data and Chile's copper production and investment also influenced the market [12]. - **Zinc**: There was a short - term correction. Key data such as prices, trading volumes, and premiums changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Demand was seasonally weakening, but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. There were changes in device operations, prices, and spreads. It was recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range and take corresponding hedging measures [65][72]. - **PTA**: Although the cost - side PX supply - demand was tight, polyester was starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so there was limited upside space. It was recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [72][73]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Due to unclear production cuts, it was in a weak oscillation. Export data showed a decline compared to the previous month [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: As US soybeans were performing weakly, soybean oil was struggling to stabilize. NOPA data showed an increase in US soybean oil inventory [152][157].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/16 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 风险提示：宏观经济波动、地缘政治变化、政策趋向扭转。 Related Reports 近期报告 摘要 Abstract Macro News: PBOC, MOF, SASAC and other ...

January soybeans are presently in a three-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart. That’s keeping the speculator bears confident that prices will continue to trade sideways to lower in the near term. Recent U.S. soybean sales to China, as reported by the USDA, have not been that supportive for soy complex futures prices because that news has already been factored into prices following the U.S.-China trade truce several weeks ago that outlined more China purchases of U.S. soybeans. In fact, soy trade ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures contract has experienced a 1% increase, currently priced at 1065.50 yuan [1] Group 1 - The coking coal continuous main contract rose by 1% on December 15 [1] - The current price of the coking coal contract is reported at 1065.50 yuan [1]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price has risen significantly due to strong downstream demand, high spinning mill operating rates, improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, and expected improvement in textile exports. The rapeseed oil price has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may increase supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down. The egg price has a limited rebound due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak trend. The hog price has limited rebound due to sufficient supply. The sugar price continues to fall due to the pressure of new sugar listing [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton futures prices have risen significantly, with downstream demand strong and spinning mills having high operating rates. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations has improved the export expectations of textiles, and the cotton main contract has broken through the 14,000 integer mark, with the upward space opened. Rapeseed oil has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may lead to increased supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The focus is on the significant rise of cotton. The main 2605 contract has broken through 14,000, opening the upward space. Supported by strong demand, as of December 4, the national cotton sales rate was 37.3%, a year - on - year increase of 21.9 percentage points. Xinjiang's industrial policy may reduce the cotton planting area by about 10% next year. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to continue to go long on dips [2] 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The focus is on the significant decline of rapeseed oil. The main 2605 contract has fallen significantly. Although the customs has tightened the inspection of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil imports, the impact on actual supply and demand is limited. The arrival of Australian rapeseed will increase supply, and overseas production is abundant. Palm oil is also weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a stop - loss reference of the 5 - day moving average at 9233 [3] 3.2.3 Egg - The focus is on the low - level rebound of eggs. The main 2602 contract has rebounded but has not changed the downward trend. The egg production is sufficient, the inventory consumption is the main task at all links, and the terminal demand support is weak. Technically, it is still weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - The focus is on the near - strong and far - weak trend of soybean meal. The January contract is strong, but the main 2605 contract is weak. Although there are rumors about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the oil mill's high - pressure production keeps the soybean meal inventory high. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [8] 3.2.5 Hog - The focus is on the low - level fluctuation of hogs. The main 2603 contract has limited rebound and continues to move sideways. Although the cold weather has increased consumer demand, the high inventory and the expected concentrated slaughter at the end of the year limit the rebound space. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [9][11] 3.2.6 Sugar - The focus is on the continued decline of sugar. The main 2605 contract has fallen after a brief rise. With the progress of sugar cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, the new sugar supply pressure is increasing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a resistance level at 5227 [12]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 666 ...

需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为178.78万吨（-10.53），热轧当周产量为308.71万吨（-5.6）。钢厂检修增加，钢材产 量下降。 （2） 需求： 钢材需求季节性偏弱。上周螺纹表观需求为203.09万吨（-13.89），热轧表观需求311.97万吨(-2.89）。 （3）库存： 螺纹钢维持去库，幅度放缓。螺纹钢总库存479.5万吨(-24.31），社会库存338.7万吨(-22.43)，钢厂库存140.8万吨 (-1.88); 钢材周报 20251215 热卷小幅去库，厂库累积。热轧总库存397.09万吨(-3.26),社会库存万吨(-7.37)，钢厂库存万吨(+4.11)。 （4）基差：基差走强，螺纹主力合约基差210元/吨（+77），热卷主力合约基差8元/吨（+28） （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比下降0.43%; 铁水产量229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。 高炉开工率7 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。市场传言海关大豆进口延迟十五天，叠加南美天气干扰仍 | | | | 存，豆粕短期预计震荡行情为主，可关注逢低企稳短多机会。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | 短线调整 | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油本月前 10 日产量环比维持增加，利空市场情绪打压期价下跌。关注马棕 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 榈油后续数据情况。由于 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，也将限制棕榈油持续 | | | | 调整空间，关注调整后企稳短多机会。12 月预计偏震荡为主。 | | 豆油 ...

2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区工厂检修，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 锰硅：港口矿报价坚挺，盘面宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 782. 5 | 2. 5 | 0. 32% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 125. 074 | -11.810 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) ...