Group 1 - The core point of the news is that significant progress was made during the recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., with both sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism [2] - The talks took place in Geneva from May 10 to 11, and a joint statement is expected to be released on May 12 [2] - The meeting was characterized as candid, in-depth, and constructive, laying the groundwork for further cooperation and resolution of differences [2] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness for talks with Russian President Putin, anticipating a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire starting May 12 [3] - Putin proposed unconditional direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on May 15 in Istanbul, suggesting new ceasefire proposals could be discussed [3] Group 3 - Nvidia plans to launch a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip to maintain its presence in the Chinese market, with a formal release expected in July [6][7] - The original H20 chip was previously approved for sale in China, but new U.S. export restrictions necessitated this downgrade [6][7] - The Chinese market is crucial for Nvidia, contributing $17 billion in revenue last fiscal year, accounting for 13% of total sales [7] Group 4 - The Chinese economy is showing signs of sustained recovery, with a bullish market outlook remaining intact according to various financial institutions [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the Chinese stock market is in a mid-term bullish phase, returning to a normal valuation repair process [9] Group 5 - The Port of Long Beach, one of the busiest in the U.S., has seen a 30% decline in cargo volume due to U.S. government tariff policies, marking the lowest levels in recent years [10] - Concerns have been raised about potential shortages affecting consumers as a result of these declines [10] Group 6 - Alibaba's founder Jack Ma made a public appearance at the company's headquarters, sparking speculation about a potential return, which insiders have denied [11][12] - Ma has not officially returned to Alibaba, and the company continues to operate under its current structure [12][13] Group 7 - A significant reform initiative in the public fund industry has been launched, aiming to address issues such as "guaranteed returns" and "scale-only" strategies [14][15] - Fund companies are actively engaging in discussions to implement the new measures, which are expected to transform them into wealth management partners for investors [15] Group 8 - The stock market is currently in a bottoming phase, with sectors being identified as potential new main lines for investment based on long-term logic [18] - The focus is on domestic supply capabilities and sectors that can accelerate the domestic production rate [18]

// 市场要闻 // 中国人民银行5月7日宣布， 自5月15日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点 （不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构），下调汽车金融公司和金 融租赁公司存款准备金率5个百分点。 超30万亿元公募基金行业迎来系统性改革。 证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，从优化主动权益类基金收费模式、完善行业考核机制、 大力发展权益类基金等方面发力，引导公募基金真正从"重规模"向"重回报"转变。方案明确，推行基于业绩比较基准的浮动收费模式，全面建立以基金投 资收益为核心的考核体系。 外交部发言人宣布，应瑞士政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理 何立峰将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士，与瑞士领导人及有关方面举行会谈 。访 瑞期间，何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。5月12日至16日，何立峰副总理将赴法国与法方共同主 持第十次中法高级别经济财金对话。 2025世界机器人大会将于8月8日至8月12日在北京举办 ，拟邀请宇树科技、众擎等国内领军企业，全力邀请特斯拉等国际企业。同期，还将举办2025世界 人形机器人运动会，这是全球首个为人形机器人组织的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a strong Q1 performance with revenue of $2.247 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.8%, marking the third consecutive quarter with revenue exceeding $2 billion, although it fell short of guidance [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached $188 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 161.92% [4] - The gross margin stood at 22.5%, remaining stable compared to previous quarters and exceeding the guidance range of 19%-21% [4] - The company’s production capacity continues to improve, with a quarterly utilization rate of 89.6%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [7] - The average selling price (ASP) of wafers decreased by 11.5% to $980 per wafer due to production fluctuations from line adjustments [7] - The company’s revenue from the industrial and automotive sectors showed a rebound, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19.2% [7] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 53.29 billion, 67.94 billion, and 76.66 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 129, 101, and 89 [7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects total revenue of 67.967 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 17.6% [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.329 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 44.1% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be around 19.8% for 2025 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 3.5% for 2025 [6]

Electronic Sector - TSMC's April revenue exceeded expectations, reaching NT$349.6 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 22.2% and a year-on-year growth of 48.1%, marking a historical monthly high [1] - Cumulative revenue for January to April was NT$1,188.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, also a record for the same period [1] - The growth is driven by AI demand and preemptive stocking by clients concerned about tariff impacts [1] - The electronic sector's Q1 2025 revenue was NT$839.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with net profit of NT$35.5 billion, up 31.2% [1] - The semiconductor materials sector showed strong performance, benefiting from increased wafer fab utilization and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Communication Sector - Leading optical module companies reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue and profit both achieving high growth [2] - The market demand for optical modules is expected to further release due to positive signals from policy and ongoing high capital expenditures from cloud vendors [2] - Major cloud companies' capital expenditures increased significantly, with Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's spending rising 69% to US$70.6 billion [2] Computer Sector - Google DeepMind released an updated version of Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing programming capabilities, allowing users to generate complete web applications and games from a single prompt [3] - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with strong growth in sectors like intelligent driving and software outsourcing [3] - The impact of tariff policies on computer companies' fundamentals is minimal, with domestic substitution and self-control sectors likely to benefit [3] Media and Internet Sector - Continuous tracking of AI application landing situations is recommended, with a focus on companies with upward marginal fundamentals and M&A themes [4] - The digital media sector has shown strong performance recently, while the film and television sector is expected to decline due to the off-season [4] - Companies like Tencent and Kuaishou are advancing in AI-generated content, indicating a growing potential for AI applications in media [4]

Group 1 - The electronic industry showed a significant growth in Q1 2025, with a total net profit of 83.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [4] - The semiconductor sector and AI applications are highlighted as key areas for investment, with expectations for higher growth rates in applications such as edge computing, smart driving, and robotics [4] - The domestic computing power industry chain is expected to benefit continuously, indicating a positive outlook for the technology sector [4] Group 2 - MAOGEPING, founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, has successfully penetrated the high-end market in the domestic cosmetics industry, with two major brands under its umbrella [5] - Longfor Group reported a contract sales amount of 5.13 billion yuan in April 2025, with a total sales area of 415,000 square meters [6] - Beijing Junzheng is advancing its 3D DRAM research and development while focusing on a product strategy that integrates computing, storage, and analog chips [6] Group 3 - Hongteng Precision's Q1 2025 revenue increased, but net profit declined due to exchange rate impacts, with a focus on growth in the 5G AIoT, EV, and audio sectors [7] - Mengbaihe plans to repurchase shares worth 85 to 170 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans, signaling confidence in long-term development [8] - Budweiser APAC reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion USD, with a year-on-year decline of 7.5% in organic growth, primarily affected by the Chinese market [9]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 11 日 策略周报 政策落地，待新催化 政策预期阶段性落地，市场信心得到有力支撑，科技主线等待回归，配置上 "以我为主"，关注内需、科技自主相关板块。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 国新办发布会 ...

2025 年 5 月 11 日 公司研究 1Q 突发生产问题，2Q 业绩有望筑底，自主可控趋势不改 ——中芯国际（0981.HK+688981.SH）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：生产问题导致25Q1营收和25Q2指引不及预期，25Q1毛利率超预期。 1Q25收入22.47亿美元，同比增长28.4%，环比增长1.8%，低于此前公司环 比增长6%~8%的指引区间，且低于23.57亿美元的市场预期。其中晶圆出货 量环比上升15%，受益于国际形势变化引起的客户拉货、国内政策推动的大 宗类产品需求的上升和产业链再分配；晶圆ASP环比下降9%，系1Q突发生产 问题，出现一次性维修费用，且部分设备量产的晶圆良率不达标、导致晶圆 ASP下滑。1Q25毛利率22.5%，同比增长8.8pct，环比下降0.1pct，超过此 前公司18~20%指引区间的上限，超过20.7%的市场预期。1Q25净利润3.23 亿美元，其中归母净利润1.88亿美元，同比上升161.9%，环比增长74.8%； Q1非控制性权益实现1.35亿美元，环比降低17%。2Q25指引营收和毛利率 环比下滑、低于市场预期。2Q25指引收入环比下降4%~6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the metals industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in copper and gold [3]. Core Insights - Tungsten prices continue to rise, and rare earth elements are beginning to see price increases as well. The report emphasizes the importance of these materials in the context of trade agreements and market dynamics [2][10]. - The report notes that the U.S. and U.K. have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the U.S. retaining a 10% baseline tariff while reducing steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. This development is expected to influence market sentiment [2]. - The report suggests a focus on materials related to technology and robotics, as well as self-sufficient products, indicating a shift towards strategic materials in the industry [2]. Industry Overview - The metals industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 399.76 billion and a circulating market value of 371.64 billion [3]. - The performance of the metals sector has shown a 1.67% increase this week, with small metals leading at 4.59% and energy metals at 2.86% [7]. - The report highlights significant stock movements, with Haomei New Materials seeing a 19.26% increase, while Zhongfu Industrial experienced a 4.58% decline [7]. Price Movements - The report indicates that magnesium prices have increased by 5.34% due to supply constraints and low inventory levels, while indium prices have decreased by 3.81% due to export tariffs and reduced demand [7]. - Copper inventory has decreased by 0.95 million tons to 1.201 million tons, which is significantly lower than the previous year's inventory of 4.047 million tons [7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face short-term pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, although long-term prospects remain positive [8]. Material-Specific Insights - The report notes that black tungsten prices have risen by 2% to 152,500 CNY per ton, driven by supply constraints and market expectations [10]. - Rare earth prices have also seen increases, with prices for terbium, dysprosium, and praseodymium-neodymium oxides rising by 4.81%, 2.49%, and 3.55% respectively [10]. - Gold and silver prices have shown a slight increase, with gold reaching 3,324 USD per ounce, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market dynamics [10].

Group 1 - The report indicates a strong rebound in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92% to close at 3342 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.27% during the week of May 5-9, 2025 [8][11][18] - The report highlights that the market is supported by favorable news such as the U.S.-China trade talks, the implementation of a comprehensive financial policy to stabilize market expectations, and better-than-expected export and CPI data for April [18][21][22] - The report notes that the current valuation of the Wind All A Index is at 18.91 times earnings, which is at the 56.69% percentile of the last ten years, indicating that the valuation has largely recovered from the impacts of the tariff war [18][19][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the focus on the AI industry as a key investment theme, with significant increases in capital expenditures from major Chinese internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, which saw increases of 80% and 113.98% respectively in Q4 2024 [18][29] - The report suggests that the domestic AI industry chain's performance is expected to significantly improve by mid-2025, potentially leading to a major upward trend in earnings [18][29] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high earnings growth, including the AI industry chain, self-sufficiency initiatives, and consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the semiconductor and cloud computing sectors, including SMIC, Weir Shares, Dongshan Precision, Shenghong Technology, Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Crystal Optoelectronics, and Lingyi Zhi Zao [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth trend in AI investments from overseas cloud service providers (CSPs), with a projected capital expenditure of $640-720 billion from Meta and $100 billion from Amazon by 2025, indicating sustained optimism in the AI industry chain [1][36]. - Domestic foundries are expected to benefit from a return of orders due to localization trends, with SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor showing stable revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Overseas Cloud Providers - Microsoft reported FY25Q3 revenue of $70.1 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and AI products [13][20]. - Meta's Q1 revenue reached $42.314 billion, exceeding expectations, with a focus on AI development across five key areas [26][34]. - Amazon's Q1 revenue was $155.7 billion, with a strong performance in AWS, which saw a 17% year-over-year growth [37][41]. Domestic Foundries - SMIC's revenue showed stable growth despite short-term fluctuations, with a clear upward trend expected in the medium to long term due to increased domestic demand [2]. - Huahong Semiconductor reported consistent revenue and wafer shipment growth, indicating a robust operational capacity [2]. Key Companies and Their Performance - AMD achieved a record revenue of over $7.4 billion in Q1, marking a 36% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in the data center market [43]. - Shenghong Technology is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the ongoing AI growth trend, alongside other key players in the semiconductor industry [1].