原标题：尺素金声｜房地产市场"没有前景"了吗？ ——澄清当前关于中国经济的一些模糊认识② 国家统计局数据显示，2025年，房地产开发投资下降17.2%，全国新建商品房销售面积下降8.7%。投资 增速负增长，是否意味着房地产市场就没有前景了？对这件事，应当如何认识呢？我们不妨聚焦三点： 第一点，投资下降背后是房地产市场发展阶段之变，对这种阶段变化，应客观理性看待。 当前，我国房地产市场正从大规模增量建设为主转向增量存量并重的发展阶段。过去在快速发展阶段， 市场需求旺盛，投资必然"高歌猛进"。现在呢？截至2024年底，我国城镇人均住房建筑面积超过40平方 米，户均住房超过1.1套，标志着房地产市场供需总量实现基本平衡。换句话说，住房紧张局面得到很 大程度缓解，新建住宅的需求不可能像过去那么高。在这一形势变化下，房地产开发企业势必会稳慎投 资、避免低效无效投资，全行业投资也就由此下降。 房地产开发投资下降也是各地消化库存、严控增量的结果。截至2025年末，全国商品房待售面积达7.6 亿平方米。面对库存高位，政府部门明确提出供给端要严控增量、盘活存量。从市场运行看，严控增量 有利于平衡供求关系，进而稳定房价和预期，实 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - **Sugar**: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - **Pulp**: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own characteristics and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be volatile and bullish, some are volatile and bearish, and some are in a state of shock [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Market Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: The upward trend of oils and fats continues. Due to the warm macro - environment, positive mid - term fundamental sentiment, and continuous capital inflows, oils and fats futures continued to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after corrections and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all volatile and bullish [6][7]. - **Protein Meal**: The reduction of short positions in double meals pushed up the market. At the end of the stocking period, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. Overseas soybean supply is expected to increase, while domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and downstream stocking is coming to an end. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market stopped falling and fluctuated. Downstream stocking is approaching the end, and the market is in a tight balance. The short - term market has a ceiling and a floor, with limited upward momentum [10][11]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand are loose, and hog prices are weak. In the short term, there is pressure from concentrated supply before the Spring Festival; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is volatile and bearish [12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: It strongly broke through the previous high, and the rubber price continued to rise. It is mainly driven by the macro - environment, with no significant change in fundamentals. The outlook is that the fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is volatile and bullish [1][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous driving force has eased. The BR market mainly followed the rise of natural rubber, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The outlook is that it is volatile and bullish in the medium term after short - term adjustment [17][18]. - **Cotton**: The position decreased, but the price was firm. The fundamentals have not changed much recently, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium and long term, while the short - term upward height may be limited [18]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure. The global raw sugar market in the 2025/26 crushing season is likely to have a supply surplus, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market is in a horizontal fluctuation. The demand for pulp is decreasing seasonally, and there are more bearish factors. The outlook is volatile and bearish [20][21]. - **Double - offset Paper**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The market supply pressure exists, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [22][23]. - **Logs**: The external market price is expected to rise, and logs are volatile and bullish. There are marginal positive drivers in the log market, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [25]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index showed an upward trend on January 29, 2026. The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and the agricultural product index all had positive growth rates [186][187].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant gains on January 29, with major contracts such as silver rising over 8%, gold and international copper over 7%, and copper over 6% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1864.00 points, up 71.46 points or 3.99% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2570.39 points, up 98.54 points or 3.99% [1] Group 2 - The bullish sentiment in the metal market intensified, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weak US dollar, with gold prices surpassing 5500 USD and silver breaking the 30000 CNY per kilogram mark [3][4] - Despite the bullish trend, there are concerns about potential price corrections due to profit-taking and increased regulatory scrutiny in the precious metals market [3] Group 3 - The copper market saw a surge in prices, with domestic and international copper prices rising over 4% to 8%, reaching historical highs, despite a backdrop of rising inventories and slowing demand [4] - The geopolitical situation, particularly threats of military intervention in Iran, continued to support the oil market, with domestic SC crude oil and fuel oil also experiencing gains of over 3% [4] Group 4 - The lithium carbonate market continued to decline, with prices dropping over 3% as market sentiment cooled, following a period of rapid price increases without sufficient supportive news [5] - The supply situation for lithium remains tight, with potential support for prices due to low overall inventory levels and maintenance at lithium salt plants during the upcoming holiday [5] Group 5 - The polysilicon market faced a downturn, with prices falling below 50,000 CNY per ton amid weak demand and high inventory levels, despite regulatory efforts to stabilize the industry [6] - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is cautious, with expectations of continued price weakness due to high inventory and uncertain downstream demand as the holiday approaches [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-29 淡季驱动有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 钢⼚复产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压制盘⾯估值。焦炭⾸轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘⾯低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂⽆，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘⾯存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘⾯上⽅空间。 钢厂复产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压制盘面估值。焦炭首轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘面低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂无，盘面震荡运 行。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘面存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增 加，天气影响供应端仍存扰动预期，需求端节前补库支撑矿价，现实 方面供需两端仍有待验证。废钢供应平稳，日耗有下降预期，整体基 本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端支撑坚挺，且钢厂复产预期仍在，冬储 补库需求仍存，焦炭供 ...

近期，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落。1月28日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收报166280元/吨，下跌3.9%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落，是此前各类利多消息逐步消化，市场回归基本面交易的表 现。 "此前，受停产消息、新能源汽车补贴延续、储能订单较好等因素影响，碳酸锂供需维持紧平衡状态， 对价格形成支撑。"创元期货分析师余烁解释称，在价格高企的情况下，市场多空分歧加大，更容易引 发价格波动。当前，锂矿价格下跌拖累了碳酸锂价格。根据Mysteel数据，1月28日，澳大利亚6%品位 的锂辉石均价报2355美元/吨，下跌100美元/吨。 展望后市，王美丹认为，在需求预期较强的情况下，碳酸锂价格下方存在有力的支撑，同时供应扰动也 限制了价格下行空间。不过，当前碳酸锂价格仍处于高位，需警惕回调风险，建议交易者理性参与、谨 慎持仓。 中信建投期货分析师张维鑫认为，当前碳酸锂市场的"强现实"已兑现，开始进入"弱预期"与"强预期"博 弈的阶段。目前碳酸锂的高价会刺激供应增长，且需求兑现程度需要持续观察，因此无法确定未来市场 的供需平衡情况。虽然下游积极备货，短期或对碳酸锂价格形成一定的支撑，但集中采购结束后，是否 仍有进一步的 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 1 月 28 日 星期三 装置运行波动，芳烃基本面变化有限 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：1 月 27 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.69%，报 7649 元/吨；纯苯 主力合约收跌 0.66%，报 5980 元/吨。 成本：1 月 27 日布油主力收盘 60.6 美元/桶（-0.4 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 64.8 美元/桶（-0.3 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6020 元/吨（+55 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 29.7 万吨（-2.7 万吨），库存高 位去化。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 9.4 万吨（-0.7 万吨），库存一路 走低。 需求：纯苯下游整体变化不大，仅有苯胺开工率大幅升至 87.6%。苯 乙烯下游进入淡季，PS、ABS 开工小幅波动，EPS 开工小幅走强，硬胶生 产利润进一步压缩。 （2）观点 纯苯：上周国内石油苯及加氢苯装置开工率不同程度下滑，纯苯产量环 比下降。下游方面，苯乙烯、苯酚及己内酰胺装置开工小幅回落，但苯胺 开工率明显提升，带动纯苯下游加权开工率环比上升。受寒 ...

当前多晶硅市场僵局持续，主要受供需两侧因素共同制约。需求方面，银浆等关 键辅材价格持续高位导致电池片生产成本居高不下，叠加组件端海外订单放量不 足，采购意愿低迷；同时春节临近加剧了硅片、电池企业开工计划的不确定性，进 一步抑制短期需求。供应方面，头部企业大幅减产或停产导致硅料供应持续收缩， 一定程度上缓和了供需矛盾，也削弱了企业主动降价的意愿。 截至本周，一家头部企业已全面停产，叠加另外两家企业减产落地，预计 1月份 多晶硅产量环比大幅减少15%，与同期硅片企业的排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度 显著放缓，供需弱平衡格局进一步巩固。从排产计划看，2月份多晶硅产量将进一步 下调至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 据安泰科统计， 本周多晶硅主流产品均无成交。观望情绪持续主导市场，全周几 乎无规模性成交，仅极个别企业达成小额试探性订单，新单签约量近乎停滞。尽管 部分企业为试探市场下调报价，但下游采购意愿持续低迷，以消化库存和僵持观望 为主，未因报价松动而启动补库，导致调价难以转化为实际成交。 | 3-1 M J 20 M T T T T T T T T + : | | | --- | --- | | 四川永 ...

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber price is 15,950 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,150 CNY/ton, also down 50 CNY/ton [4][31] - Thai rubber water price reported at 57.7 THB/kg, up 0.1 THB/kg from the previous day; cup rubber price remains stable at 53.0 THB/kg [5][32] - As of January 25, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons, or 0.07% [5][32] Group 2 - The global rubber market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5][32] - Despite a projected moderate growth in global tire and rubber product demand by 2026, growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][32] - The rebound in rubber prices is not expected to exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5][32] Group 3 - PX industry load in China decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 89.0%, while Asia's load increased by 0.4 percentage points to 81.0%, indicating a stable supply [6][33] - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities [6][33] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 7,200-7,300 CNY [6][33] Group 4 - PTA industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 76.6%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expected supply tightening due to maintenance plans [8][35] - The overall demand for PTA is weak, with a decline in new orders and a decrease in factory operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region [8][35] - PTA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 5,200-5,300 CNY [8][35] Group 5 - The EG industry load decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 73.7%, with domestic supply remaining ample despite potential import reductions from North America and the Middle East [10][37] - The price of EG is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with a support range of 3,900-3,950 CNY [10][37] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 66.4%, with ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [12][42] - The demand for PR is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery [12][42] - PR price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 6,100-6,200 CNY [12][42] Group 7 - The glass industry shows weak supply and demand, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 266,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [18][45] - The glass production rate remains stable, but downstream purchasing activity is generally weak [18][45] - Glass prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 1,060-1,100 CNY [18][46]