1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA balance shows less - than - expected destocking month - on - month. It maintains a tight balance in September, with minor current supply - demand contradictions. Attention should be paid to the lower support [5][50]. PX - PX is in a tight - balance state for the polyester industry. There are few changes in maintenance, and the balance pressure is low. It should be operated with low - level oscillations, and its elasticity comes from PXN [6][72]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a record - low port inventory, and it is difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The existing supply is high. With new device commissioning plans, the short - term outlook is cautiously bullish, and it should be treated as a low - buying opportunity during oscillations [7][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Attention to the Peak Demand Season Expectation - Terminal orders have shown partial improvement, and the weaving operation rate has slightly increased. The operation rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 79% (+7%), 68% (+5%), and 72% (+5%) respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved. The market anticipates a seasonal improvement in the peak season [9]. PTA Tight Balance - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is less than expected. Hengli has one line under maintenance, and the other is undetermined. Dushan Energy is under maintenance, Fuhai Chuang's restart is postponed to mid - September, and new lines of Sanfangxiang are operating stably while the old line will stop after the new one stabilizes. YS Hainan and YS Dahua are under planned maintenance [43][50]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, with a decrease of 8.3 tons to 212 tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts). The balance in September is tight [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The PTA balance destocking is slightly less than expected. It maintains a tight balance from August to September. The supply side has device maintenance, and the demand side has stable polyester load and slightly improved weaving orders [50]. PX with Elasticity - **Supply**: The domestic PX load changes little, with a domestic load of 83.3% and an Asian load of 75.6%. Jinling Petrochemical slightly reduced its load, Fuhai Chuang will restart in early September, and Daxie plans to increase its load in September. Overseas, Idemitsu restarted, and Saudi Arabia slightly increased its load [72]. - **Balance**: The PX balance is acceptable, with PXN compressed to around $250 +. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [72]. EG Low Inventory and General Expectation - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol load is 75%, and the coal - based load is 77%. Satellite's one - line maintenance is postponed to early October. Coal - chemical maintenance slightly increases in September. Overseas, Singapore's 900,000 - ton device's restart is postponed for several months [84][107]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 44.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 tons, reaching a record low. The arrival volume is expected to be neutral in the short term, and the port inventory is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [102]. - **Supply - Demand**: The ethylene glycol market has a strong reality of low inventory. The inventory is difficult to accumulate in the short term. The supply is high, and the demand has stable polyester load. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [107]. Spread Structure - No specific analysis of the spread structure is summarized in the report other than showing some price charts of different products such as PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Report's Core View Polyolefin - In September, the polyolefin market shows a phased characteristic of "decreased supply and increased demand", with inventory being reduced and overall market pressure under control. It is recommended to continue holding the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is strong in the short - term. After the parade, there may be an increase in orders from other provinces, and some caustic soda plants may raise prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [4]. PVC - The PVC market continues to be in a situation of oversupply. Although it is the traditional demand peak season in September, demand remains sluggish. It is expected to continue weak and volatile [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The supply side supports buying, while the demand side is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent OPEC+ meetings. In the short - term, wait and see, use a positive arbitrage strategy, and look for opportunities to expand options after the volatility increases [7]. Methanol - The methanol supply is expected to increase, while the traditional downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the restart of MTO devices at ports and the inventory digestion rhythm. The 01 contract can consider the possibility of a decline in imports due to gas restrictions in Iran [17]. Urea - The urea futures price rebounded slightly, driven by supply - side maintenance and Indian tender news. However, weak demand limits the upside space [21]. PX - PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in September. PX11 can focus on the area around 6800 [25]. PTA - PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the absolute price is supported in the short - term. [26] Ethylene Glycol - In September, domestic ethylene glycol supply is high, imports are revised down, and port inventories are low. Consider going long EG2601 or selling put options EG2601 - P - 4300 [26]. Short - fiber - In September, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction is limited. The price fluctuates mainly with raw materials [26]. Bottle Chip - In September, bottle chip manufacturers maintain a 20% production cut. Demand declines slightly, and the upside space is limited [26]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, demand support is weak, and the absolute price is under short - term pressure. However, the strong oil price restricts the downward space. For BZ2603, focus on the area around 5800 - 6000 [34]. Styrene - Short - term styrene supply is high, and the driver is weak. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the future, and the downward space is limited. Consider going long lightly below 7000 and focus on the support around 6900, and then mainly short on rebounds [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 closing prices all decreased slightly. The basis of North China LL and the spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 14.92%, and social inventory increased by 0.99%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.91%, and trader inventory decreased by 1.81% [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.72%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.6%, and powder operating rate increased by 4.1% [2]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Export Profit**: FOB price of caustic soda in East China remained unchanged, and export profit decreased. PVC's CFR Southeast Asia price decreased, and export profit increased [4]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate and PVC total operating rate decreased. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC and Northwest integrated PVC decreased [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC's pre - sales volume decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China decreased, while that in Shandong increased. PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased [4]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all rose. The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. changed significantly [7]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of some refined oil products and their spreads changed, and the cracking spreads of some refined oil products also changed [7]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased. The basis of Taicang and regional spreads changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased, while that of overseas enterprises increased. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices increased [17]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some urea products and their spreads changed [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased, and factory and port inventories increased [21]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX**: PX futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha decreased [24][25]. - **PTA**: PTA spot and futures prices changed slightly, and the processing fee increased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased, and the basis increased [25]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, etc. changed, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [32]. - **Benzene and Styrene Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis and import profit changed [32]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [33]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of some industries in the industrial chain changed [34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - p - Xylene: Long the spread between November and January contracts, short the spread between January and May contracts. Long PX and short EB. Go long on dips before mid - September [7] - PTA: Long the spread between November and January contracts, long PTA and short MEG [1] - MEG: Long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase long positions, consider the valuation high above 4550 [1][9] 2. Core Views - The supply - demand of p - Xylene is in a tight - balance pattern. The overnight oil price rebound supports PX. In September, supply will marginally increase, but PX demand from new PTA projects keeps the balance tight [7][8] - PTA's unilateral price is oscillating strongly with limited downside. Polyester开工率 is rising. After some PTA device incidents, it turns to a de - stocking pattern. PTA basis and spread are supported, but factory hedging may suppress the price [8] - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market. Supply and demand both increase, and ports turn to a stocking pattern. The overall unilateral price support is limited. High coal - based profits impact the valuation of oil - based sources [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures prices had different changes. For example, PX主力期货昨日收盘价 was 6866, down 0.17%; PTA主力 was 4772, down 0.25% [2] - **Futures Spreads**: PX11 - 1 spread yesterday closed at 72, up 4; PTA11 - 1 was - 10, down 2; MEG1 - 5 was - 39, down 1 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton yesterday, down 0.67 dollars; PTA in East China was 4727 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; MEG spot was 4507 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton yesterday, down 3.5 dollars; PTA processing margin was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan [2] Market Dynamics - **PX**: An East China factory postponed the restart of its PX and PTA devices. On September 1, Asian p - Xylene prices were basically stable, but concerns about upstream demand pressured the market. The Asian contract price negotiation for September p - Xylene cargoes failed to end by the end of August [2][3][4] - **PTA**: A 70 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted at the end of August; a 55 - ton and a 150 - ton device are restarting, and a 120 - ton device is expected to stop on September 4 [5] - **MEG**: The inventory at East China main ports was about 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons. Different ports had different inventory changes [5] - **Polyester**: A 50 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in South China restarted, and a 35 - ton device in Northeast China stopped. Some polyester devices in other regions restarted or are expected to restart. The sales of polyester yarn and staple fiber were weak today [5][6] Trend Intensity - p - Xylene trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report 2. Core Views - The overall trend of soda ash futures is in a volatile phase, with supply slightly contracting and downstream demand remaining weak. High inventory levels are being slowly reduced, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [6]. - The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend. The spot market has seen a slight increase in some areas, with inventory decreasing slightly in some regions due to downstream replenishment. However, high inventory levels are restricting price increases. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase [6]. - Trend logic: The domestic soda ash spot market remained weak last week, with both light and heavy soda ash prices at low levels. Supply slightly contracted, but downstream demand was weak. High inventory was slowly reduced, and the futures market first rose and then fell, with insufficient rebound momentum [6]. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soda ash market continued to be weak last week, with prices under pressure. The supply - demand imbalance in the futures market remained unchanged, and it was expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile and weak pattern. The operating range of Soda Ash 2601 was 1300 - 1450, and it was advisable to remain on the sidelines [9]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic soda ash market remained weak last week, with prices at low levels. The futures market first rose and then fell, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The operating range of Soda Ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差, and ammonia - alkali production cost in North China [11][14][16] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in a volatile trend [27]. - Trend logic: The domestic float glass market was stable with slight local increases last week. Inventory digestion and peak - season expectations drove downstream replenishment, but high inventory restricted price increases. The futures market first rose and then fell, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [27]. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market declined weakly last week, with prices generally falling. The futures market also weakened, and it was expected to remain weak in the short term. The expected operating range of Glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic float glass spot market was stable with slight local increases last week. The futures market first rose and then fell, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The expected operating range of Glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差, and期末库存 [32][35][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price broke upward this week. The market order transactions remained resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. There are concerns about anode copper production in September and October, and potential squeeze - out risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to July. August was a seasonal off - peak for demand, but there was a slight improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased in August, and demand was seasonally weak domestically but had some resistance overseas. Short - term rebound is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take a short - position in the long - term. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and positive spreads between months can be noted [4]. - For nickel, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous attention [6]. - The stainless - steel market had some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate, and the southwest production is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - The lithium carbonate price decreased this week. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 55, the spread increased by 133, and the LME inventory increased by 950. The copper price broke upward this week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders were resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. Some regions' scrap copper rod production decreased, and there are concerns about anode copper production in September and October [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a seasonal off - peak in August [1]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory situation [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 120, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500. The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased in August, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some resistance. Short - term rebound is expected, and long - term short - position is recommended [4]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 500, and the LME inventory decreased by 132. The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and demand was weak [6]. - **Situation in Indonesia**: The parade in Indonesia turned into a riot, and the situation needs continuous attention [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 30. Some steel mills had passive production cuts [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the lead price oscillated, the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000, and the exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the tin price oscillated upward, the LME inventory increased by 115, and the position increased by 15,147 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased. The production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices decreased by 350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 930. The price decreased this week [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (three stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with good investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is generally weak, with prices of most products under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and other factors [2][3][5] - Different sub - industries have their own supply - demand characteristics, and price trends are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Tight supply - demand and pre - stocking by downstream due to upcoming events support price hikes, but limited by downstream profit compression [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply pressure eased with increased maintenance, while polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak [2] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to fall. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, and the BZ - NAP spread narrowed. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [3] - Styrene futures closed down. With weak raw material support and sufficient supply, there is still room for price decline without effective trading volume growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Terminal demand is rising, but the actual improvement is limited, and they are expected to continue range - bound [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded to the top of the range, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, and it is expected to maintain range - bound [5] - Short fiber supply - demand is stable, and prices mainly follow costs. There is a positive outlook for the peak season, and long - position allocation can be considered if demand improves [5] - Bottle chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure, and the processing margin is low [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures had low - level fluctuations. Port inventory reached a high, and the supply is expected to increase after the end of autumn maintenance. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and the restart of MTO plants [6] - Urea futures had a weak performance. Spot trading improved slightly, but supply is high, and there is a risk of price fluctuations due to export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices weakened. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fell from a high. Although there is support from demand, the supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened. Supply decreased slightly, but inventory is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8] - Glass futures rose due to delivery. Spot price decline slowed down, and there is a possibility of price support during the peak season [8]

20250829棉系月报： 短期边际利空有限 关注开秤后多空节奏转换 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年8月29日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中国央行15日发布的2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告(下称"报告")表示，把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策 的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平。 | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | | | | | 2、美联储主席鲍威尔在2日一场备受关注的演讲中为降息敬开大门,以在美国总统特朗普加大对央行施压之际平衡经济所面 | | | | 临的风险。 | | | | 国际方面,近期美国棉区干旱情况缓解有限,优良率小幅走弱。巴西新棉收获进度为五年同期最慢,整体进度约五成在右, | | | | 国内新季种植上，新棉进入吐絮期，目前新疆产区温度相对较好，疆内无明显阴雨天气负面影响、棉灰反馈潮产预期强烈。 | | 供应 | 中性 | 部分地区反馈9月中下旬新棉将提前上市。新作预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost - end: Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly and continued to decline during Asian trading hours. The 50% tariff imposed by the US on India led to a bearish outlook on crude oil demand, and API inventory data showed an unexpected inventory build in the US, pressuring oil prices. For PX, China's PX load is gradually recovering, and the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance. Although the near - month PX floating price has weakened, PXN has support due to low inventory and new PTA device demand. For TA, PTA maintenance has increased, improving supply - demand, and the September balance sheet will shift from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. The reduction of September contracts by Hengli may cause supply - demand tension in South China [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.0% (up 0.6% month - on - month), showing signs of recovery. Export shipments and domestic sales stocking are increasing. The load of weaving and texturing is on the rise, with the peak expected in September. Currently, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and profitability is improving. The bottle - chip market has slow de - stocking, and the load is expected to recover in September. For PF, the production profit is 107 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the average load has increased to 91.9%. The downstream load is rising, and inventory is being depleted. For PR, the spot processing fee is 297 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month), and major factories will maintain production cuts in August, with the load expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. Continue to monitor the PX devices of Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical. For PX, the concentrated restart of PX devices in August and increased PTA maintenance have weakened the fundamentals, but low inventory supports PXN. For TA, the improvement in supply - demand due to PTA maintenance in August and the shift to de - stocking in September, along with potential supply - demand tension in South China, require attention to the return of maintenance devices. For PF, demand has slightly improved, and inventory is being depleted, but the willingness to chase rising raw material prices is low. For PR, major factories have extended maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to range - bound trading after recovery. Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. Cross - period: No relevant strategies [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures 1 - 4 show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures 5 - 8 show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures 9 - 11 show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Figures 12 - 16 show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures 17 - 22 show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures 23 - 36 show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of different filaments, and the profits of different filaments [47][49][66] PF Detailed Data - Figures 37 - 46 show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn startup rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn startup rate, and processing fees [70][77][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures 49 - 56 show the polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and month - to - month spreads [86][93][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Rubber Industry - New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are few, inventory may continue to decline, fundamentals remain strong, and there is still upward potential. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. In the long - term, if some capacity is cleared, supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips, but be aware of the pressure from inventory and warehouse receipts [2]. Polysilicon Industry - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Future warehouse receipts are expected to increase. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips, and consider short - selling by buying put options at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Log Industry - The current main contract is the 2511 contract, and the market value fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The demand remains firm, and the inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to consider buying the 2601 contract on dips [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. There is no growth expectation for demand, and the inventory may be further pressured. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - **Glass**: The market is also in a weak and volatile state. The market has a negative feedback loop, with the near - term 09 contract facing weak reality and the far - term 01 contract facing weak expectations. High - level short positions can be closed for profit and wait for new driving factors [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14,900 yuan/ton. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 21.51% to - 1045 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.02% to 14,850 yuan/ton [1]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.14% to - 982 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.88% to - 90 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.37% to 1075 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23% to 392,600 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 12.03% to 176,200 tons, India's production increased by 30.82% to 62,400 tons, and China's production increased by 6.8 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.36% to 72.77%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.92% to 63.84%. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16% to 94.364 million, tire exports increased by 10.51% to 66.65 million, and natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% to 474,800 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50% to 616,731 tons, and the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.47% to 44,857 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 0.54% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 12.26% [2]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 40.00% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 33.33% to - 10 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased by 15.21% to 150,300 tons, Yunnan's production increased by 153.86% to 41,200 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 31.05% to 48,500 tons. The national开工率 increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 4.54% to 199,800 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% to 74,000 tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.83% to 119,100 tons, Yunnan's factory inventory decreased by 0.94% to 31,600 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37% to 541,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton and 46,000 yuan/ton respectively. The N - type material basis decreased by 314.52% to - 665 yuan/ton [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 2.00% to 49,665 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 180.00% to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 6.53% to 31,000 tons, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 47.48% to 120 tons, exports decreased by 3.92% to 210 tons, and net exports decreased by 32.44% to 100 tons [4]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46% to 213,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% to 180,500 GW [4]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2509 contract decreased by 0.25% to 790 yuan/cubic meter, the 2511 contract increased by 0.86% to 821.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2601 contract increased by 1.03% to 836.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [5]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.149, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 814.95 yuan/cubic meter [5]. Monthly Data - Port shipments decreased by 1.51% to 1.733 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% to 47 [5]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 22, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, and the daily average log delivery volume was 64,500 cubic meters [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2509 contract decreased by 1.52% to 970 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.29% to 1379 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 1187 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - Soda ash开工率 decreased by 6.79% to 82.47%, and weekly soda ash production decreased by 6.79% to 719,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.64% to 62,566,000 heavy boxes, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.26% to 1.8675 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 500,700 tons [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [6].