投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询 号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供需双增，期价震荡运行 u 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 u 期现端：截至12月12日，全国现货价格11.34元/公斤，较上周涨0.23元/公斤；河南猪价11.4元/公斤，较上周涨0.01元/公斤；生猪2503收至11325元/吨，较上周涨240元/吨；03合 约基差75元/吨，较上周跌230元/吨。周度生猪价格先抑后扬，重心上移，随着二育和压栏猪抛压释放，低位养殖户惜售情绪增强，以及腌腊展开和降温终端消费季节性增量，价格 小幅偏强；期货主力移仓至03，跟随现货低位反弹，03贴水收窄，基差走弱，盘面近强远弱；周末现货稳中偏强。 u 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升， ...

镍作为空配品种延续下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 期权：卖出阻力位虚值看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美联储鹰派降息如期落地，中央经济工作会议也已结束，更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策等表述，并未给市场带来强刺激，市场反应平平。 产业方面：11月国内产量锐减1万吨，供需基本匹配，LME库存也因此未出现增长。12月产量略有回升， 需求端进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也环比走弱。库存预计小幅增长。供 需双弱格局缺乏向上驱动。商务部、海关总署公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，对不锈钢和镍利 空。 期货层面：沪镍11.8万附近阻力较强，资金减仓后上周四返回，价格再度下行，若市场整体风险偏好下降， 可能增仓下破前低。 不锈钢交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 单边：测试前低。 交易逻辑及策略 | 单边：低位震荡。 | | --- | 套利：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUT ...

邓正红软实力表示，市场对委内瑞拉石油供应中断存在担忧，但美国股市走软加剧了市场对供应过剩的看空情绪，石油软实力在在震荡运行中略显收缩，12 月12日（周五）国际油价小幅走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.16元至57.44美元，跌幅0.28%，本周该期 货累计下跌4.39%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.16美元至61.12美元，跌幅0.26%，本周该期货累计下跌4.12%。 供需平衡的规则重构。市场对2026年供应过剩的共识是规则重构的体现。邓正红认为"规则系统驱动物质演化"，当前市场通过期货持仓（看空押注升至七周 高位）和价格预期（推至10月以来区间下沿）完成了对供需规则的重新定价。这种规则重构比实际供需变化更能影响短期价格走势。 市场趋势预测与投资建议。短期震荡：地缘政治风险（规则场）与供需基本面（物质场）的博弈将导致油价持续震荡。任何反弹预计都将短暂。中长期下行 压力：全球石油市场进入累库周期，国际油价运行中枢将明显下移，预计布伦特原油全年均价在每桶65~75美元区间。投资策略：邓正红软实力哲学建议关 注"规则-物质"的协同演化。投资者应同时跟 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][4] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,970 yuan/ton and closed at 115,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 106,815 (-13,204) lots, and the open interest was 106,302 (+3,719) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high, then moving low, and closing weakly, in an overall weakly oscillating pattern, affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - economics [1] Fundamental - The current pattern of nickel supply surplus remains unchanged. Although refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the production of primary nickel in December increased month - on - month, and the reduction in refined nickel production in November was lower than expected, having a limited marginal impact on the market supply - demand balance sheet [1] Macro - The Fed cut interest rates in December, but subsequent statements were hawkish, and the previous positive factors have basically been reflected in the market [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market was calm, with prices stable. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and their price - holding mentality recovered. As downstream ferronickel prices rebounded and domestic factories needed to stock up before the Spring Festival, the mentality of pressing down prices for nickel ore purchases may ease. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market showed no obvious improvement, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 5,100 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,939 (-296) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,852 (-240) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,550 yuan/ton and closed at 12,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,489 (+3,558) lots, and the open interest was 103,523 (-4,171) lots. After the contract changed to 2602, it continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a narrow - range weakly oscillating pattern and closing slightly lower. Technically, the price closed below the 5 - day moving average, remaining in a short - term weak pattern, but there was strong support around 12,400 yuan/ton [3] Spot - Downstream buyers remained cautious, and trading did not improve. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 195 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 888.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a trend of mills reducing production and destocking, with iron - water production decreasing and raw material inventory accumulating, which drags down steel prices. The market's concern about export bottlenecks also affects steel prices. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move within a range. Consider closing the short position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread in the January contract and re - participating in shorting the rebar to iron ore ratio in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 48, 46, and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 30, 0, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 44, 44, and 37 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 9 yuan/ton. - Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes. For example, East China rebar profit increased by 31 yuan/ton, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average iron - water production decreased by 30,000 tons to 2.293 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 227,000 tons to 8.062 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. - Rebar output decreased by 105,000 tons to 1.788 million tons, a decline of 5.6%. - Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.087 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.321 million tons, a decline of 2.5%. - Rebar inventory decreased by 243,000 tons to 4.795 million tons, a decline of 4.8%. - Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 3.971 million tons, a decline of 0.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 22,000 tons to 92,000 tons, a decline of 19.3%. - The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 245,000 tons to 8.397 million tons, a decline of 2.8%. - The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 139,000 tons to 2.031 million tons, a decline of 6.4%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.12 million tons, a decline of 0.9% [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish. With mills continuing to reduce production, iron - water production declining, and the market weakening, the iron ore valuation is likely to decline. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The basis of 01 contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 2.188 million tons to 24.805 million tons, a decline of 8.1%. - The global weekly shipping volume increased by 454,000 tons to 33.686 million tons, a rise of 1.4%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 5.006 million tons to 111.309 million tons, a decline of 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 85,000 tons to 3.185 million tons, a decline of 2.6%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49,700 tons to 65.549 million tons, a decline of 0.8%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 1.493 million tons to 71.997 million tons, a decline of 2.0% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 482,000 tons to 153.4898 million tons, a rise of 0.3%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills increased by 42,300 tons to 89.847 million tons, a rise of 0.5%. - The inventory available days of 64 mills increased by 1 day to 20 days, a rise of 5.3% [3]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke market is weakening, with supply and demand turning unfavorable. The coke futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is also facing downward pressure. The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 36 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%, and the 05 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.6%. - The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 29 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.0%, and the 05 contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.3%. - The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average output of 247 mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons. - Coking coal production: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [4]. Demand - Coke demand: The iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decline of 1.3%. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showed a slight decline [4]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, a rise of 2.4%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 mills, and ports showed different changes. - Coking coal inventory: The inventories of Fenwei coal mines, all - sample coking plants, and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 mills decreased [4]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 2.5 tons to - 1.9 tons, a change of 31.3% [4].

中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。东吴证券首席 经济学家芦哲表示，在宏观要求中不再出现"稳住股市"的字眼，而是转变为"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳 市场、稳预期"，这并不意味着不重视股市，而是标志着政策关注点从维持稳定转向了维持市场机制正 常运行（稳市场）和信心建设（稳预期）。"明年市场的重点不再是单纯的资金入市，而是更深层次的 制度建设，特别是要在'投'与'融'两端寻找新的平衡，而不仅仅是为企业融资服务。" 芦哲认为，在国内经济方面，2024年中央经济工作会议强调了"需求不足"的一面，今年则提出"供强需 弱矛盾突出"，更注重供需平衡关系。尽管存在上述问题，但会议指出"这些大多是发展中、转型中的问 题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变"。整体更主动应对外 部冲击，统筹内外工作，从稳定资产价格到稳定微观主体；质量重于数量，增强居民和企业的获得感。 针对扩内需政策，芦哲表示，消费仍然是放在扩内需的第一位，但会议对"两新"（设备更新和以旧换 新）政策表述发生了重大变化，从去年的"加力扩围"改为了今年的"优化"，政策从单纯的"资金加码" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be strong before the holiday due to tight supply - demand, but not to be chased at high prices in the short - term. Hold long PX and short BZ positions. Be cautious about the warehouse receipt pressure of PX01 contract [9]. - PTA is in a high - level volatile market with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions for the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays from late December to early January [10]. - MEG is in a weak trend. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. There is a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 11, Platts evaluated Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea at 835.67 dollars/ton and 814.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 4 dollars/ton from the previous day. The FOMC cut the target interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10 [4]. - In the Platts closing assessment, the 1 - 2 month spread of PX continued to narrow. Some Asian PX term contracts have not been settled, and the volume of 2026 contracts is much lower than that of 2025 [6]. Fundamentals - PX: Domestic production start - up rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). GS has a shutdown plan in December, Satorp in the Middle East restarts 700,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans for Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong Refining [9]. - PTA: Mainland China's device changes are small this week, with a load of 73.7%. A 550,000 - ton device in Taiwan, China is shut down, and the load drops to 30% [7]. - MEG: As of December 11, the overall start - up load in mainland China is 69.93% (down 3.01% from the previous period), and the start - up load of syngas - made MEG is 72.17% (down 0.41% from the previous period) [7]. - Polyester: The start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remains stable at about 75%. The overall polyester load in mainland China is about 91.2% [7][8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is - 1, PTA trend intensity is - 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [9]. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: PX, PTA, and PF closed up, while MEG and SC closed down on the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA, and short - fiber processing fees increased, while MEG, naphtha, and Brent crude oil prices decreased [2].

针对OPEC+暂停2026年一季度增产计划的决定，银河期货原油研究员赵若晨认为全球原油库存仍处高 位，仅靠暂停增产计划短期很难改变对供应过剩的预期。在非OPEC+国家(尤其是美国)产量持续高企的 背景下，其通过调节产量来平衡市场的能力和边际效应正在减弱。 与此同时，有关俄罗斯11月原油产量显著低于其OPEC+配额的消息也引发了关注。中信期货研究所高 级研究员何颢昀分析认为，这主要缘于乌克兰针对俄罗斯能源基础设施及"影子船队"的无人机袭击力度 加大，导致其出口一度受挫。然而，12月初相关出口数据已有所反弹，俄油供应目前仍未见到明显减 量。这暗示俄罗斯的产量波动更多是地缘冲突带来的短期扰动和物流挑战，而非长期性的产能萎缩。赵 若晨认为，西方制裁导致买家减少及设施遇袭等因素的影响是短期扰动还是长期趋势尚待观察。俄罗斯 产量的不确定性，为市场提供了一丝紧缩的想象空间，但其可持续性和实际效果存疑。 近日，美国军方在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押一艘受制裁油轮。赵若晨认为，这标志着美国对委内瑞 拉的制裁从"书面执行"转变到了"武力执行"的新阶段。这可能会显著增大"影子船队"的运输风险和保险 成本，短期或扰乱委内瑞拉原油出口， ...

以下文章来源于中粮期货研究中心 ，作者中粮期货研究中心 中粮期货研究中心 . 传递客观的市场信息 文 | 余雅琨 来源 | 中粮期货研究中心 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年碳酸锂市场处于供需双强格局，供给同比增速小于需求，在供给释放周期仍未走完的大背景，结合2026年强需求预期，供给的弹性会被 放大，短期的供需错配导致价格维持高位震荡，关注边际释放节奏。 一、 宏观定位与微观数据 政策市属性未变： 需求端对补贴、购置税减免、资源税/矿权政策极度敏感。 周期位置： 仍处于"挤水分后"低位宽幅震荡区间，大级别反转需看到2026年后供给再平衡，当前只做"周期中的短错配"交易。 宜春矿权事件： 短期停产暂歇，但补缴权益金、矿权整合未落地，2027年前仍有反复。可持续跟进。 六氟磷酸锂凭借其在产业链中的短库存周期优势、稳定的高集中度产业格局，以及与下游 1-2 月生产节点的联动性，其价格及需求信号 不仅能反映自身供需，更可能预示下游需求存在超预期释放的可能性，因此成为判断锂电下游需求趋势的关键指引指标。 | 时间分项 | 总产量 | 进口 | HD | 意做应 | 总消费 | 过剩量 | 库仔量 | ...