20250430棉系月报： 国内植棉进入苗期 关注后市关税政策调整 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025年4月30日 周度综述：摘要 | | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(4月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标(万吨) | | | 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (3月) | 2024/25 (4月) | 月度调整 | 年度同比 | | | 中国 | 597.7 | 644.5 | 583.5 | 668.4 | 595.4 | 691.2 | 696.6 | 5.4 | 101.2 | | | 印度 | 620.5 | 598.7 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 544.3 | 544.3 | 0.0 | -8.7 | | | 巴西 | 283 | 300 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1332.4 points, closing at 1324.3 points with a rise of 3.42% [1] Group 1: Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan Futures believes that the 2506 contract still has some downward space, indicating a weak short-term driving force and that the 2508 and later contracts reflect expectations of tariff policy changes [1] - Guotai Junan Futures also notes that the October period is traditionally a low season for the European line, suggesting that shipping companies may need to proactively suspend voyages to mitigate the decline in freight rates [1] - Guotai Junan Futures recommends a strategy of holding positions through the holiday while being cautious of the risk of reducing positions before the holiday [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Guotai Junan Futures highlights that the current spot market prices have dropped significantly, with CMA and HPL's prices falling to $2100 and $2645 per FEU respectively, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from shipping companies [1] - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that the combination of a weak spot market and lackluster forward expectations will likely lead to a continued weak consolidation pattern in the short term [1] - The market is also observing a gradual slowdown in the downward slope of immediate freight rates due to cost support and seasonal demand expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on April 30, 2025, including their support and resistance levels, and also analyzes the market situation on April 29, 2025, along with relevant macro - news and commodity - related information [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance at 3748 and 3768 points, support at 3715 and 3705 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2640 and 2650 points, support at 2612 and 2605 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5530 and 5561 points, support at 5440 and 5420 points; IM2506 has resistance at 5820 and 5848 points, support at 5700 and 5668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly. T2506 has resistance at 109.16 and 109.32 yuan, support at 109.00 and 108.88 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 121.2 and 121.7 yuan, support at 120.8 and 120.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 792.2 and 795.0 yuan/gram, support at 780.0 and 774.5 yuan/gram; Silver futures AG2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 8296 and 8329 yuan/kg, support at 8159 and 8113 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures CU2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 78200 and 78600 yuan/ton, support at 77600 and 77200 yuan/ton; Aluminum futures AL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance at 20100 and 20190 yuan/ton, with support at 19930 and 19880 yuan/ton; Alumina futures AO2509 are likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 2650 and 2600 yuan/ton, resistance at 2770 and 2787 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures are likely to oscillate weakly; Glass and soda ash futures are likely to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping emphasized Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on the tariff war; the Ministry of Commerce commented on Boeing's situation; the central financial institutions supported Shanghai's construction of an international financial center; the central bank increased capital injection to ensure market liquidity; the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments carried out a market access barrier cleanup campaign; the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed reform measures; the central bank mobilized the implementation of the financial "five - article" statistical system [9]. - **International News**: The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned trade agreements and tariff policies; the US Treasury Secretary planned to have talks and proposed tax - related measures; the "helmsman" of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of global economic risks; global investors sold ESG sustainable funds; US economic data such as job vacancies, consumer confidence, and housing prices were released; euro - zone economic data such as industrial and economic sentiment were released [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Night Session**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with energy - chemical products, black series, and some agricultural products falling, while some base metals had mixed performance [13]. - **International Futures**: International precious metal futures and oil futures closed lower on April 29, 2025; London base metals mostly fell; Chicago Board of Trade agricultural product futures closed lower [14]. - **Industry News**: The China National Coal Association called for regulating coal imports; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan for the livestock - breeding grain - saving action; the World Bank predicted commodity prices; US API crude oil inventories increased; the US dollar index rose [15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some falling slightly and some having short - term rebounds, but most faced resistance and support levels [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the ten - year and thirty - year contracts showing strong upward trends, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations to inject capital [40]. - **Other Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures also had their respective trends on April 29, 2025, and their future trends were predicted, including support and resistance levels [46].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 1.08%至 9354 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.86%至 77610 元/吨；现货 | | | 进口窗口关闭，但亏损减弱。宏观方面，昨晚美国白宫态度出现重大转变，此前一直批 | | | 评美联储主席鲍威尔降息不够迅速、甚至威胁将其解雇的美国总统特朗普表示，无意解 | | | 雇鲍威尔。另外，美国财长贝森特表示，关税僵局不可持续，预计将在不久的将来，形 势有所缓和。白宫新闻秘书宣称，贸易谈判正取得进展，本周将与 34 个国家开会，并 | | | 表示特朗普希望降息，希望美元继续扮演全球储备货币的角色。库存方面，LME 铜库 | | 铜 | 存下降 700 吨至 212700 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 2235.33 吨至 116355.8 吨；SHFE 铜仓单 | | | 下降 6098 吨至 46693 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 603 吨至 11327 吨。需求方面，下游开工和订 | | | 单保持平稳，节前备货或进一步加快库存去化。3 月 ...

Group 1: China Export Tracking - Goldman Sachs' China team launched the "China Export Tracking" series focusing on changes in China's export patterns to the U.S. amid escalating tariffs [1] - The report surveyed 46 companies whose products account for nearly 70% of China's total exports to the U.S. to assess the impact of trade dynamics [1] - Key questions included changes in export orders compared to pre-tariff levels, initiation of price negotiations, and views on alternative supply chains and inventory [1] Group 2: Tariff-Induced Recession Risks - The adjustment of tariff policies by the Trump administration has created significant uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, raising recession concerns [4] - Economic observers have differing views on recession risks, with some indicating a higher likelihood due to uncertainty, while others believe trade policies may not necessarily lead to a recession [4] - The report evaluates market vulnerabilities to recession and discusses potential protective measures for investment portfolios [4] Group 3: Company Updates - Cambricon's rating was upgraded to "Buy" due to growth driven by cloud capital expenditure, with expectations of profitability in 2025 and an EBIT margin of 26% by 2030 [4] - Weichai Power is expected to report a net profit decline of about 5% in Q1 2025, but a 20% increase when excluding the impact of Kion Group, supported by improved profit margins [5] - TSMC maintains its revenue and capital expenditure guidance for 2025, surprising investors amid concerns over tariff impacts on demand, though it anticipates a larger decline in gross margins than previously expected [6] - Fuyao Glass's Q1 2025 results met expectations, with limited tariff impact, and the company is expected to gradually restore new orders [7] - Ruifeng New Materials reported a net profit of 195 million RMB in Q1 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the ongoing recovery in exports [8] Group 4: Global Economic Insights - The normalization of U.S. Treasury markets shows signs of recovery, but achieving a sustained rebound remains uncertain due to various risks [9] - There are no significant signs of large-scale outflows from U.S. assets, with recent market volatility attributed to leveraged investors rather than mass selling [9] - Gold prices have risen approximately 7% since April 8, supported by structural factors rather than speculative inflows, with expectations for gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end [9]

【环球网科技综合报道】4月22日消息，据外媒报道，美国三大零售商沃尔玛、GameStop和百思买对任天堂即将 推出的amiibo玩偶产品进行了价格调整，其中《街头霸王6》与《塞尔达传说》系列amiibo的售价涨幅引发市场关 注。 外媒认为，此次价格调整与近期美国关税政策调整密切相关。任天堂部分生产线位于越南和中国，而美国对这两 个国家的关税分别上调至46%和34%，导致生产成本显著增加。此外，Switch 2主机及配件的整体成本上涨趋势 也加剧了amiibo的定价压力。此前，Switch 2主机因日元贬值、开发成本增加等因素，海外版定价已较日版高出 近40%（日版49980日元/约2413元人民币，国际版69980日元/约3387元人民币）。 尽管百思买等平台仍显示原价，但GameStop等零售商已明确上调售价。部分玩家担忧，若关税持续影响，未来 游戏主机及配件价格或进一步上涨。此次调价尚未得到任天堂官方确认是否为长期调整。 值得关注的是，这批amiibo支持Switch 2主机的新功能，例如通过USB-C接口实现数据快速传输，并兼容最新发 布的AmiiJoy智能底座。这些技术升级可能进一步加剧生产成本，从而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton prices are under pressure to decline due to factors such as domestic over - capacity in the industrial chain, limited consumption growth, tariff policy adjustments, potential increases in cotton production in Xinjiang and Brazil, and the impact of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - PTA prices are under pressure to decline mainly because of poor terminal weaving orders, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [3]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and decline due to low international crude oil prices, the impact of tariff policies on imports, and weak market sentiment [4]. - Short - fiber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak raw material prices and declining terminal textile demand [5]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, affected by factors such as short - term tight trade flow in the international sugar market, Brazilian production and weather conditions, and domestic import data and sales progress [7]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly as apple出库 is good and inventory is low, but macro risks need to be monitored [7]. Summary by Variety Cotton - Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. About 60% of the sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning factories has been released, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders [1]. - The external market is relatively weak, with the CFTC fund holding a net short position and the industry holding a net long position [1]. - In the second quarter, the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, cotton production in Xinjiang may increase by 10%, and the new - year cotton output may reach 720 - 750 million tons. Brazilian cotton production is also increasing, which is bearish for cotton prices [1]. - On April 16, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,252 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [11]. PTA - As of April 16, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,270 yuan/ton. The terminal weaving situation is weak, and the downstream polyester demand is weak. The spot basis has strengthened slightly, and the market transaction is mediocre [10]. - The PTA capacity utilization rate remained at 76.41%, and the polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 91.31%, down 0.12% from the previous day. The PTA de - stocking continued [3]. - The decline is mainly due to poor terminal weaving orders. As of the beginning of this week, the comprehensive starting rate of domestic major weaving production bases was 56.57%, down 2.34% from last week [3]. Ethylene Glycol - International crude oil prices are low, and cost support is poor. The tariff policy affects imports, and the number of arrivals is expected to decrease. Although short - term polyester start - up is okay, market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to decline [4]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, up 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, up 0.48% from last week [16]. Short - fiber - Raw material prices are weak, and terminal textile demand is expected to decline. The short - fiber market is difficult to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - As of the 10th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate average was 82.84%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month [14]. Sugar - In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but with the start of the Brazilian sugar - making season and the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the ICE sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. - Domestically, imports have decreased year - on - year, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the later stage, as consumption increases, the price may be boosted [7]. - In April , Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks were 632,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.37%. From January to March 2025, Ukraine's sugar imports were 230 tons, 37% of the same period in 2024, and exports were 152,620 tons, 72% of the same period in 2024 [15]. Apple - The overall apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. However, macro risks need to be monitored [7]. - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 3.9863 million tons, a decrease of 389,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking was accelerating year - on - year [17]. Macroeconomic Information - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [11]. - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.094 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11]. - The US has increased tariffs on China, and China has stated its position on the tariff issue [11].

1. Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: After short - term release of export slowdown, the market rebounds, but the benchmark contract conversion affects the price. In China, the production cycle starts, and the price may fluctuate widely in the medium - and short - term [1]. - Soybean oil: The impact of Sino - US trade disputes is digested. The NOPA report may show an increase in US soybean oil inventory, but it is still lower than last year. In China, soybean supply shortage will last until the end of the month, and the basis price will decline as Brazilian soybeans arrive [1]. Sugar Industry - The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar season, which will suppress prices in the long - term. Raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic market follows the raw sugar trend, with price support but limited upside due to increasing industrial inventory [3]. Cotton Industry - Macroeconomic uncertainties remain high, and the downstream demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Egg Industry - Egg supply and demand are generally balanced, and the national egg price is expected to remain stable this week [7]. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are affected by tariff policies and inventory adjustments. Brazilian supply pressure is increasing. In China, slow customs clearance affects soybean inventory, and the meal basis is boosted. The market may face a short - term correction [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn supply is tightening in the long - term, but short - term factors are mixed. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn starch shows some price differences compared to corn [12]. Pig Industry - The pig futures price is pushed up by feed trends and second - round fattening. In the short - term, the price may be strong, but the sustainability is uncertain due to supply pressure and weak demand [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices all declined compared to April 14. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.37% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.19%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.16% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of sugar 2505 increased by 0.07%, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.32%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.42% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.27% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 26.64% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of cotton 2505 decreased by 0.86%, and the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.85% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B increased slightly, and the FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 2.15% [4]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 6.5%, and the export of textile yarn and fabric increased by 93.8% [4]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.05%, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 0.10% [7]. - **Related Data**: The egg - feed ratio was 2.53, and the breeding profit was - 15.78 yuan/feather [7]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 1.82%, and the price of the M2509 contract decreased by 1.22% [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in 2509 increased by 2.61% [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On April 15, 2025, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.35%, and the import profit decreased by 5.78% [12]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 increased by 0.26%, and the starch - corn spread increased by 4.27% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of the pig 2505 contract decreased by 8.33%, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.28% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Sichuan increased by 130 yuan/ton [16]. - **Related Data**: The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.19%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 8.83% [16].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has agreed to exempt certain electronic products, including smartphones, computers, and chips, from "reciprocal tariffs" [2][5] - This exemption applies to products entering the U.S. after April 5, and companies can seek refunds for tariffs already paid [5] - Analysts suggest this marks a significant shift in U.S. tariff policy, indicating a "180-degree turn" [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. bond market has experienced a historic sell-off, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising nearly 50 basis points, the largest increase since 2001 [10] - The sell-off has led to a significant outflow from U.S. stocks and bonds, with funds moving towards gold as a safe haven, pushing gold prices above $3200 per ounce [10] - Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have been raised by financial leaders, including BlackRock's CEO [12] Group 3 - The recent tariff exemptions are seen as beneficial for companies within the Nvidia and Apple supply chains, potentially alleviating previous concerns about export tariffs [16] - Analysts believe that the removal of tariff worries could lead to a recovery in earnings per share (EPS) for the Apple supply chain [16] - Investment considerations for companies like Luxshare Precision and GoerTek include assessing their valuation and the impact of institutional buying during recent market volatility [17][18]

Group 1: Company Performance - Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) shares increased by 7.6% to close at $75.25, following a period of 3.5% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The stock's rally was supported by strong trading volume, indicating heightened investor interest [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 33.8%, with revenues projected at $5.48 billion, up 15.7% from the previous year [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and External Factors - The surge in Charles Schwab shares was influenced by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension on tariffs for non-retaliating countries, which alleviated trade tensions and improved overall market sentiment [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for Charles Schwab has been revised 1% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [4] Group 3: Industry Context - Charles Schwab is part of the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, where Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR) also operates, having seen a 14% increase in its stock price recently [4] - Piper Sandler's consensus EPS estimate remains unchanged at $2.42, representing a year-over-year decline of 13.3% [5]