Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of quantitative trading regulations, the cooling of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and China's tariff countermeasures are the three major factors influencing the A-share market's performance, potentially leading to a low-open, high-close trend next week [1][3]. Regulatory Impact - The implementation of the "Procedural Trading Management Implementation Rules" by the three major exchanges in China will have a profound impact on the stock market ecosystem, establishing standards for high-frequency trading and introducing AI monitoring systems to address four types of abnormal trading behaviors [1]. - The new regulations may suppress the trading volume of quantitative strategies, which currently account for 25%-30% of total trading volume in A-shares, but will enhance trading fairness, benefiting retail investors in the long run [3]. Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent statements have dampened global rate cut expectations, indicating that inflation may rise due to tariffs, which could lead to a cautious approach towards rate cuts [3]. - The shift in the Fed's stance from targeting a 2% inflation rate to a wait-and-see approach has resulted in a rise in the dollar index, putting pressure on risk assets, particularly interest rate-sensitive sectors like technology stocks [3]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on two main themes: "beneficiaries of countermeasures" and "domestic demand recovery," targeting sectors and stocks that benefit from tariff countermeasures and domestic demand stimulus policies [3]. - A balanced allocation between technology growth stocks and high-dividend defensive stocks is crucial, as technology stocks may face short-term pressure from foreign capital withdrawal, while high-dividend stocks can provide protection during market volatility [3].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is experiencing a significant surge, driven by upcoming events and favorable policies [2][5][9] Group 1: Innovative Drug Market Performance - Innovative drugs have seen substantial gains, with companies like Junshi Bioscience rising over 16% and the Hong Kong market's innovative drug sector increasing nearly 4% [2][4] - The upcoming ASCO conference in Chicago, scheduled for May 30 to June 3, 2025, is expected to further ignite interest in innovative drugs, with numerous Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcasing their research [5][9] Group 2: Clinical Advancements - Junshi Bioscience's JS015 and other drugs are leading in clinical trials, with promising early data indicating a 100% objective response rate (ORR) in certain treatment groups [4] - The 2025 ASCO conference will present updated data, which may enhance the visibility and credibility of Chinese innovative drugs on the global stage [5][9] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent policies, such as the draft action plan for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in Shanghai, aim to enhance the development and integration of TCM, indicating a supportive environment for the pharmaceutical sector [5] - Long-term investment strategies are focusing on two main areas: international expansion of innovative drugs and recovery of domestic demand, particularly in TCM and consumer healthcare [8][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - DKK1, a new potential target for solid tumors, is a typical secretory antagonist of the Wnt signaling pathway, showing high expression in various cancers, including gastric cancer and colorectal cancer [2][5] - Multiple pharmaceutical companies globally are proactively positioning themselves around the DKK1 target, with Junshi Bioscience's JS015, Anjiesheng's AGA2118, and Eli Lilly's Sirexatamab leading in clinical development, all having entered Phase II trials [6][23] - The macro environment has changed significantly, with a focus on two main investment directions for 2025: innovation going global and domestic demand recovery [7] Summary by Sections DKK1 Target Overview - DKK1 is a secretory glycoprotein that acts as an antagonist in the Wnt signaling pathway, with high expression in cancer patients' serum, particularly in gastric and colorectal cancers [5][18] - The potential of DKK1 as a biomarker for gastric cancer screening is highlighted, with its high expression correlating with poor prognosis [22] Clinical Development Progress - Junshi Bioscience's JS015 has shown promising early clinical data, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 100% in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer and 66.7% in gastric cancer [6][26] - The clinical progress of DKK1-targeted therapies includes several companies, with Junshi's JS015, Anjiesheng's AGA2118, and Eli Lilly's Sirexatamab all in Phase II trials, while Pfizer's RN564 is in Phase I [25][23] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs and their potential for international expansion, suggesting that domestic policies favoring high-quality innovation will drive growth [7][30] - The recovery of domestic demand is expected to benefit sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine and consumer healthcare, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and innovative capabilities [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the healthcare sector [9]. Core Insights - DKK1, a new potential target for solid tumors, is a typical secretory antagonist of the Wnt signaling pathway, showing high expression in various cancers, including gastric and colorectal cancer [2][6]. - Multiple pharmaceutical companies globally are proactively positioning themselves around the DKK1 target, with leading candidates such as Junshi Bioscience's JS015, Anjiesheng's AGA2118, and Eli Lilly's Sirexatamab all in Phase II clinical trials [7][28]. - The report highlights the promising early clinical data for Junshi Bioscience's JS015, which shows a 100% overall response rate (ORR) in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC) and significant efficacy in gastric cancer (GC) [31]. Summary by Sections DKK1 Target Overview - DKK1 is a secretory glycoprotein that acts as an antagonist in the Wnt signaling pathway, with high expression levels in the serum of cancer patients, particularly those with gastric cancer [22][27]. - The potential of DKK1 as a biomarker for gastric cancer screening is noted, with its high expression correlating with poor prognosis [27]. Clinical Development - Junshi Bioscience's JS015 has shown robust early clinical data, with a 100% ORR in a trial group for first-line CRC treatment and 66.7% ORR for first-line GC treatment [31]. - The report details the global clinical progress of DKK1-targeted therapies, with several candidates in various stages of clinical trials, indicating a competitive landscape [33]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates significant growth in the pharmaceutical sector by 2025, driven by innovation and recovery in domestic demand, particularly for innovative drugs and medical devices [8][35]. - The investment thesis emphasizes the importance of companies with strong cash flow, innovative capabilities, and established research platforms, particularly in the context of international market expansion [35][36].

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.05.12-2025.05.16。 短期维持震荡，行业轮动加剧。当前市场对关税政策的关注重心从贸易条件改善，转向对国内政 策对冲力度与内需复苏弹性。当前指数自4月回调后已经修复到合理水平，市场赚钱效应偏弱，板 块轮动加快且持续性不足，预计市场短期或延续震荡格局，板块轮动成为常态。建议继续关注科 技成长（机器人、AI+）与红利低波(银行、公用事业、石油石化)的杠铃结构配置机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，大盘价值风格重新占据强势；风格波动方面，大小盘风格波动 以及价值成长风格波动均从低位回升，风格切换的可能性提升。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数 超额收益离散度继续下降，成分股上涨比例下降，行业轮动速度上升；交易集中度方面，个股成 交集中度有所回升但仍处于低位，前5行业成交额占比相较前期变化较小。市场活跃度方面，上 周，市场波动率维持在低位，换手率继续下降。 商品市场方面， 上周，趋势强度表现维持分化，能化、黑色板块延续其较强的趋势性，有色、农 产品及贵金属板块趋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound on May 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3380.48 points, up 0.38%, driven by a decrease in LPR rates and positive economic outlooks from the National Bureau of Statistics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A500 Index ETF (159351) ended its adjustment with a rebound, closing with a gain of 0.62% and a slight premium of 0.01% [1] - The A500 Index ETF recorded a trading volume of 2.393 billion yuan, ranking second in the market among similar products, with a turnover rate of 16.72%, also second in the market [1] - Key stocks such as Aofei Entertainment, Huahai Pharmaceutical, and O-film Technology hit the daily limit, while Xintai rose nearly 8%, and others like Jinchengxin, Tigermed, and SF Holding increased over 6% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR by 10 basis points to 3.00% and the 5-year LPR by 10 basis points to 3.50%, marking the first cut of the year [1] - Huachuang Securities indicated that this move will lower corporate financing costs, improve profit expectations, and potentially drive a stock market rebound [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reaffirmed the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy, highlighting coordinated macro policies and continued growth in innovative momentum [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Brokerage firms suggest focusing on the recovery of domestic demand and sectors with high technological prosperity [1] - The easing of US-China tariffs, along with policies to attract long-term capital into the market, is expected to further boost market confidence [1] Group 4: A500 Index ETF Overview - The A500 Index ETF (159351) tracks the CSI A500 Index, composed of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and favoring large and mid-cap styles [2] - Investors can access quality core asset opportunities through the A500 Index ETF linked funds (Class A 022453; Class C 022454) [2]

Group 1 - The A500 Index has shown a slight increase of 0.23% as of May 20, 2025, with notable stock performances including Huahai Pharmaceutical reaching a 10% limit up, and Wentai Technology rising by 6.21% [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) has seen a trading volume of 1.06 billion yuan during the session, with an average daily trading volume of 2.526 billion yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1] - The A500 Index ETF has experienced a significant growth of 529 million yuan in scale over the past three months, leading in new scale among comparable funds, and an increase of 891 million shares in the same period [1] - The valuation of the A500 Index is at a historical low, with a latest price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.46, which is lower than 81.5% of the time in the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the A500 Index as of April 30, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, collectively accounting for 20.8% of the index [1] Group 2 - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized that the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged, with macro policies working in coordination to support economic recovery [2] - Nomura Orient International Securities suggests focusing on domestic demand recovery, highlighting sectors with significant valuation elasticity such as food and beverage, real estate, and pharmaceuticals, as well as consumption upgrades [2] - The report also indicates a focus on high-growth technology sectors, particularly in AI, energy storage, and various long-validated themes like domestic innovation and commercial aerospace [2] Group 3 - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500 ETF through the A500 ETF linked fund (022454) for easy investment in the top 500 A-share companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, focusing on domestic demand recovery and opportunities in equipment exports [1]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, particularly in engineering machinery, with a projected revenue increase of 3% in 2024 and 11% in Q1 2025 for selected companies [1]. - The report highlights the importance of key sectors such as general automation, humanoid robots, and testing services, indicating potential growth opportunities in these areas [2][3][9]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 290.5 billion CNY in 2024 and 80.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3% and 11% respectively [1]. - Key drivers include rural water conservancy projects and a global interest rate reduction cycle, leading to a recovery in domestic and export demand [1]. General Automation - The general automation sector is expected to achieve a revenue of 59.25 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [2]. - The injection molding machine segment shows promising growth, with companies like Haitian International and Yizumi projected to achieve revenue increases of 23% and 24% respectively [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is entering a golden development period, with a focus on dexterous hands and lightweight materials [3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in micro-screw components and sensors, which are crucial for the functionality of dexterous hands [3]. Testing Services - The testing services sector is projected to generate 46.8 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, despite a 4% decline year-on-year [9]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sector, particularly when excluding companies heavily involved in medical testing [9]. Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is expected to see a revenue of 47.3 billion CNY in 2024, with a 2% year-on-year growth [4]. - The report notes a shift towards overseas markets, which are expected to grow by 7% [4]. Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.22 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [10]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic equipment manufacturers in capturing market share as the industry continues to grow [10]. Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to generate 84.86 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a slight increase of 2% year-on-year [11]. - The report suggests that leading companies in this sector are well-positioned to navigate through the current challenges [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Views - The machinery equipment industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and increased exports, particularly in sectors like engineering machinery and oil services [1][4] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of engineering machinery companies, with projected revenue growth of 3% in 2024 and 11% in Q1 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of smart logistics in the forklift sector, suggesting a second growth curve for companies in this space [4] Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The analysis of 13 A-share listed companies in the engineering machinery sector shows a total revenue of 290.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - The net profit for these companies is projected to reach 20.3 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 26% increase year-on-year [1] - Key companies to watch include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong [1] General Automation - The industrial automation sector is expected to see a revenue of 592.48 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [2] - The injection molding machine segment is projected to grow significantly, with companies like Haitian International and Yizumi showing strong revenue growth [2][22] - The report identifies opportunities in the FA automation segment, particularly for companies like Yihada [2][21] Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of 473 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [4] - The report notes a shift towards overseas markets, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 7% [4] - Companies such as Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group are highlighted as key players [4] Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a total revenue of 732.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [10] - The net profit for semiconductor equipment companies is projected to reach 119 billion CNY, reflecting a 15% increase year-on-year [10] - Key companies include North China Innovation and Zhongwei Technology [10] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of 848.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [11] - The report indicates a significant decline in net profit, expected to drop by 57% to 54.8 billion CNY [11] - Companies such as Jingcheng Machinery and High Measurement are recommended for investment [12] Testing Services - The testing services sector is expected to generate revenue of 468 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4% [9] - The net profit for the sector is projected to decrease by 56% to 18 billion CNY [9] - Recommended companies include Huace Testing and Guodian Measurement [9][30]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading companies with strong management and brand recognition in the testing service industry, particularly recommending companies like Huace Testing, Sutest, and Guangdian Measurement [6][13][86]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the testing service industry is under pressure, with a focus on lean management and the expansion into emerging industries [4][5]. - The testing service sector is closely correlated with macroeconomic growth, and it is expected to benefit from government debt relief and domestic demand stimulus policies [5][74]. - The industry is experiencing a trend towards consolidation, with resources likely to concentrate in leading companies that possess brand, capital, and management advantages [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the testing service sector achieved revenue of 46.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 4%. Excluding companies with high medical testing ratios, the revenue was 25.8 billion RMB, showing a growth of 4% [4][19]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 9 billion RMB, down 9% year-on-year, but excluding high medical testing companies, the revenue growth improved to 2% [4][19]. Profitability - The sector's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 1.8 billion RMB, down 56% year-on-year, primarily due to declining revenue and increased costs [26]. - Excluding high medical testing companies, the net profit decline was 20%, indicating a narrowing drop [26]. Market Dynamics - The global testing service market is projected to reach approximately 2.3 trillion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of about 6% from 2021 to 2024 [5][57]. - The Chinese testing service market reached around 467 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 13% from 2014 to 2023 [57]. Industry Characteristics - The testing service industry is characterized by heavy asset requirements and localized operations, with a significant presence of small and weak institutions [68][69]. - The report highlights a trend towards consolidation in the industry, driven by increasing regulatory scrutiny and the need for higher capital and technical capabilities in emerging sectors [69][73]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for the testing service industry due to recent macroeconomic policy adjustments and government debt relief measures [74][86]. - Companies with significant government client bases, such as Puni Testing, Guangdian Measurement, and Huace Testing, are expected to benefit from these developments [86].