Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 closed at 1.63 with a 21.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.64 with an 11.29bp increase, GC001 at 1.51 with a 13.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 2.00bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a 0.90bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.45, 1.55, and 1.68 respectively, with increases of 1.94bp, 1.14bp, and 0.71bp; 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.43 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 125 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 4.3 billion, 18 billion, 9.2 billion, 6.45 billion, and 10.65 billion yuan maturing from Monday to next Friday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Quotes - The CSI 300 closed at 3889 with a 0.46% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2717 with a 0.86% decrease, the CSI 500 at 5716 with a 0.01% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 6068 with a 0.18% increase [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts also showed corresponding price changes and volume and position changes [6] - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.12% to 3889.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 2716.7, the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 5715.8, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.23% to 6068.1 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, non - bank finance (2.5%), automobile (2.4%), transportation (2.1%), basic chemicals (1.8%), and comprehensive (1.7%) led the gains last week, while computer (-1.3%), national defense and military industry (-1.2%), media (-0.8%), electronics (-0.7%), and social services (-0.5%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Analysis - In April, the domestic inflation level remained low, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI up 0.5% year - on - year, and PPI down 2.7% year - on - year with a 0.2 - percentage - point increase in the decline [7] - Financial data was weaker than seasonal. In April, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, weaker than market expectations; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - In April, new RMB loans in the financial caliber were 280 billion yuan, 450 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and government bonds continued to provide support; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 1.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Due to the under - performance of social financing and inflation data in April, the fundamental driving force for the stock index is still weak. After the first - stage Sino - US tariff negotiation, the stock index has recovered the technical gap, and the need for Central Huijin to support the market has weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions and be vigilant against adjustment risks [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different premium and discount rates for different contract periods [8]

Economic Indicators - In April 2025, the new social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion RMB, down from 5.89 trillion RMB in March, slightly below the market expectation of 1.26 trillion RMB[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in April was +8.7%, an increase from +0.3 percentage points in March[2] - The total amount of new RMB loans in April was only 11% of the average for the same month over the past five years, indicating weak financing demand from the real economy[2] Loan Dynamics - In April, the balance of loans from financial institutions grew by +7.2%, down from +7.4% in the previous month, continuing a downward trend since the beginning of the year[2] - Resident loans decreased by 5.216 trillion RMB in April, with medium- and long-term loans and short-term loans dropping by 1.231 trillion RMB and 4.019 trillion RMB, respectively[3] - Corporate loans increased by 6.1 trillion RMB in April, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2.5 trillion RMB, with medium- and long-term loans only reaching 48.9% of the average for the past five years[3] Monetary Supply - The M2 growth rate in April was +8.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was +1.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[4] - The weak performance of social financing and credit reflects insufficient internal demand, low inflation, and external tariff impacts[4] Market Performance - As of May 16, the CSI REITs index rose by +1.24%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by +0.76%[10] - The average weekly liquidity indicators for nine sectors showed that seven sectors experienced positive changes, indicating improved liquidity conditions[10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商策略 indicates that after the short-term profit-taking pressure is released, the A-share market is expected to return to a trend of oscillating upward [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The first batch of floating rate funds has officially been submitted for approval, marking the practical implementation of fee reform [1] - In April, the growth rate of social financing accelerated to a high level, supported by a series of counter-cyclical financial adjustment policies, which is expected to restore real financing demand [1] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and special government bonds for central financial institutions has commenced, providing continued support for the total amount of social financing [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - In April, the central bank's "claims on other financial companies" increased significantly, likely related to providing liquidity support to the Central Huijin Investment [1] - The Central Huijin is expected to continue playing a stabilizing role, making market downside risks manageable [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks is expected to positively influence short-term market risk appetite [1] - Concerns over fluctuating tariffs and subsequent profit-taking may be the main reasons for the market's weakness in the latter half of the week [1]

银行角度看 4 月社融：政府债保持高增，透支与预期影响贷款 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 评级： 增持（维持） | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | 江苏银行 | 10.73 | 1.69 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.15 | 6.35 | 6.50 | 5.62 | 5.29 | 4.98 | 买入 | | | 渝农商行 | 7.27 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.07 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 4 月金融数据点评：信贷"小月更小" 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据。 （1）4 月人民币贷款新增 2800 亿，同比少增 4500 亿。 （2）4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿，同比少减 1.22 万亿，社融存量同比增速较 2025 年 3 月末提升 0.3pct 至 8.7%。 （3）4 月 M2 同比增长 8.0%，环比提升 1pct；新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5%， 环比下滑 0.1pct；M2-M1 增速剪刀差环比扩张 1.1pct 至 6.5%。 点评： 1.三重因素影响下，信贷"小月更小" 作为传统信贷小月，4 月增量回落本是正常现象。但今年 4 月信贷大幅同比 少增，与 3 月信贷超预期同比多增，形成鲜明对比。对于这一现象，我们 认为有以下三点原因： 其一，信贷前置发力导致储备项目透支严重。4 月对公中长贷新增 2500 亿， 远低于 2020-2024 年同期的均值 5115 亿，同比少增 1600 亿。 其二，季末信贷冲量后，季初月份集中到期压力较大。4 月对公短贷新增 -4800 亿，创历史 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 政府债仍是最主要支撑项——2025 年 4 月金融 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比提升 0.3 个百分点，从增量结构上来看，政府债仍 为主要贡献项。2025 年 4 月 M1 同比增速为 1.5%，增速环比下降 0.1 个百分点；M2 同比增 速为 8.0%，增速环比提升 1 个百分点。存款结构方面，4 月为税收"大月"，叠加政府债发行， 财政存款收大于支，对企业和居民存款形成一定的挤出效应，另外 4 月债市收益率下行或带动 居民存款分流至理财等非银机构。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 政府债仍是最主要支撑项—— 2] 2025 年 4 月金融 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 4 月人民币贷 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [25]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that in April 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to approximately 1.16 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that credit growth will remain stable throughout 2025, with an estimated annual credit increment of around 18.1 trillion yuan, leading to a credit growth rate of approximately 7.1% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government bonds as a primary support for social financing, with government bond issuance in April reaching about 972.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan [4][10]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In April, new credit was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the seasonal nature of credit in this period and the impact of debt replacement [4]. - Corporate loans saw a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting weak demand in the corporate sector [4][15]. - Retail credit demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease of 521.6 billion yuan in household loans, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in the housing market [4][18]. Monetary Supply - M1 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, showing a rebound in growth rates [8][4]. - The report notes that the decline in deposits was significant, with a net decrease of 440 billion yuan in April, reflecting a shift in risk preferences among investors [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are attractive in both counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical contexts, with high dividend yields becoming increasingly appealing [4]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Agricultural Bank of China (A+H), Chongqing Bank, and Suzhou Bank, among others, due to their solid provisioning and growth potential under favorable policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates a significant impact on credit due to external factors, with bills becoming a major support for credit growth [2][6]. Group 1: Credit and Loans - New RMB loans in April amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [7][11]. - The corporate sector showed a more pronounced impact from tariffs, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion, down from 860 billion year-on-year [8]. - Bills financing accounted for 297.9% of the new credit in April, highlighting its critical role in supporting credit growth [8][13]. Group 2: Deposits - Total RMB deposits decreased by 440 billion in April, with significant changes in the structure, particularly in non-bank financial institutions which saw an increase of 1.57 trillion [12]. - The increase in non-bank financial deposits is attributed to a shift in investment preferences due to volatility in the bond market [12]. Group 3: Social Financing - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion in April, with a growth rate of 8.7%, marking a significant rise due to a low base effect [13]. - Government bonds played a crucial role, with new issuance reaching 9.76 trillion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion [13]. Group 4: Conclusions and Implications - The April data reflects a seasonal decline in credit, exacerbated by tariff impacts, with expectations of a potential decline in growth rates as base effects fade [6][17]. - The central bank is responding by increasing structural relending quotas to stimulate credit demand in the service sector [17].

Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, primarily due to the over-issuance in March and ongoing local debt replacement effects[1][4][11] - The total social financing (TSF) in April was 1.1585 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2243 trillion, driven by a low base from the previous year and significant government bond issuance[1][7][11] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy[1][9][11] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China announced a series of financial support policies on May 7, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to increase bank lending capacity by approximately 1 trillion[3][12] - The easing of the US-China trade tensions, as noted in the May 12 joint statement, may partially restore bilateral trade, although high tariffs will continue to pose challenges[3][12] - The expectation is for continued year-on-year increases in credit and social financing in May, with M2 growth also anticipated to accelerate[3][12][13] Group 3: Structural Changes in Loan Distribution - From January to April 2025, new loans totaled 10.06 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion, largely influenced by local debt replacement factors[1][6][11] - The structure of loans has improved, with the proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and key service sectors increasing significantly[1][6]

Credit Demand Analysis - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) was 11,591 billion RMB, which was 12,249 billion RMB more than the previous year but still below the market expectation of 12,638 billion RMB[1] - The new RMB loan scale was 2,800 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,500 billion RMB year-on-year, also falling short of the expected 7,644 billion RMB[1] - The decline in new loans was attributed to the high growth in March, which may have overstated April's demand, a pattern observed in previous years[1] Breakdown of Financing Components - Government bond net financing reached 9,729 billion RMB in April, an increase of 10,666 million RMB year-on-year, remaining a key support for social financing[2] - New corporate bond financing was 2,340 billion RMB, up 633 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating improved issuance sentiment[2] - New entity loans under social financing were only 884 billion RMB, a decrease of 2,465 billion RMB year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period[2] Loan Composition Insights - Non-bank loans and discounted bills accounted for a significant portion of new loans, with non-bank loans at 1,634 billion RMB and discounted bills at 8,341 billion RMB, suggesting weak credit demand[2] - Large banks' net purchases of bills in April were 5,666.68 billion RMB, higher than the 3,785.35 billion RMB from the previous year, indicating lending pressures[3] Household and Corporate Loan Trends - Household loans decreased by 5,216 billion RMB, the lowest level in nearly a decade, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans down by 4,019 billion RMB and 1,231 billion RMB respectively[3] - Corporate loans in April were 6,100 billion RMB, down 2,500 billion RMB year-on-year, with short-term loans decreasing by 4,800 billion RMB[4] Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The comprehensive financing indicator for enterprises was 5,958 billion RMB, a decline of 276 billion RMB year-on-year, reflecting reduced confidence amid external pressures[5] - M2 growth was 8.0%, exceeding expectations, while M1 growth was only 1.5%, indicating a widening gap that may affect liquidity efficiency[7] - The overall credit demand remains weak, primarily driven by government financing, with both household and corporate sectors showing limited improvement[8]