据美国有线电视新闻网报道，特朗普这次讲话一改往日风格，始终紧盯提词器，快速念完讲稿，语 速远超平时。 美国总统特朗普17日晚对全国发表电视讲话，晒出自己再次就任总统11个月来的"成绩单"。讲话持 续约20分钟。 特朗普讲话时，美国社交媒体评论区及网络直播弹幕上频繁出现"撒谎"一词。 路透社与益普索集团17日公布的最新民调显示，仅有33%的美国成年人认可特朗普经济举措。（记 者：陈丹；视频：操兰漪、梁君茜） 特朗普讲话前，美国国会参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默在国会山一场新闻发布会上，晒出一张美 国"经济成绩单"，成绩为"F"（不及格）。 舒默说，特朗普给自己执政打分"A++++"，而实际情况大相径庭。特朗普上任首日就承诺"降低生 活成本"，但现实是成本持续"涨、涨、涨"，特朗普只"活在自己的世界里"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate and unemployment rate may stabilize by 2026, with inflation expected to decrease before rising again, and the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates once in June [1] Economic Indicators - In October, the U.S. added significantly fewer non-farm jobs due to the end of government layoffs from earlier in the year, while private employment continued to expand [1] - November saw a rebound in non-farm job additions, exceeding market expectations, primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and educational services [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, marking a nearly four-year high [1] Employment Market Analysis - The non-farm employment data for October is considered noisy due to missing information caused by the government shutdown, leading to a mild market reaction [1] - Overall, the employment market shows signs of weakness but has not deteriorated significantly [1] - There was a slight improvement in the number of initial and continuing unemployment claims, and the service sector PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed have rebounded, indicating resilience in the job market [1]

美东时间12月17日晚间，美国总统特朗普在白宫发表面向全美的电视讲话，回顾上任11个月来的执政重 点，并预告明年的政策走向。 特朗普在讲话中称，美国经济正在好转，但仍有大量的工作要做。"11个月前，我接手的是一个烂摊 子，而我正在收拾残局。"他说，"仅仅一年时间，我们就取得了比任何人想象的都要多的成就。" 特朗普还宣布，他将向美国军人发放奖金，每人约为1776美元，这笔奖金将来自关税政策的收入。 在特朗普此次讲话前夕，美国多项民调的结果均显示特朗普的支持率在下滑。 值得注意的是，同以往自由式发言不同，特朗普当晚的发言为长达17分钟的"读稿式演讲"，且语速明显 比以往要快。 "经济不好全怪拜登" 此外，他还提到，如今美国的就业人数比历史上任何时期都多，而且所有新增就业岗位都来自私营部 门。 展望明年，特朗普预告，他将在2026年推出重大的住房改革举措，但没有提供具体的政策细节，"在新 的一年里，我将宣布美国历史上一些最具魄力的住房改革计划。"同时，他表示还计划将普通新房抵押 贷款的成本每年降低3000美元。 至于被热议的下一届美联储主席人选，特朗普表示，"很快"会宣布，并称这位人选是"一位能大幅降低 利率的人" ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Vice President Vance acknowledged that the government's agenda has not translated into widespread benefits for Americans, indicating a disconnect between policy and public impact [1] - Vance attributed the current high costs to the Biden administration, admitting to economic pain being felt across the country [1] - This statement contrasts sharply with former President Trump's assertion that the economy is "incredible" and that prices are plummeting [1]

贝森特很乐观，因为美国这么折腾之下，预计2025年全年GDP增速将达到惊人的3.5%！我们先不说通胀、逆差、美债之类的老生常谈的问题，仅就 美国现在这个经济体量，又是消费主导的经济体现况而言，我不得不感慨一句：美国的经济韧性确实是强，有效需求确定是旺，所以投资下去的赚 钱效应明显，这种全世界唱衰，"明天就要崩盘"的预期下，一年下去，GDP涨了3.5%，也算经济史的奇迹2.0！ 我们现在一起来看下昨天美国经济数据的一锅炖：美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下 2021年9月以来的新高！美国10月零售销售环比持平，略低于预期的0.1%增长！美国12月标普全球制造业PMI初值下滑至51.8，创5个月新低！这些 数据，似乎都在说：美国经济在高利率环境下"内部疲软因素上升"！ 我们接下去就简单分析下： 一、就业市场：结构性问题 美国11月非农看似延续就业市场韧性，但失业率却意外攀升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高，同时前期数据大幅下修，10月非农就业从初值修正 为减少10.5万人，较预期的下降2.5万超出四倍，8月和9月合计下修3.3万人。这种"新增就业与 ...

美国国债收益率扭转了早前的跌势，收益率在欧洲午盘交易中持稳。Exness的Terence Hove在一份报告 中称，即将公布的数据，包括10月份零售额在内，"预计将为美国经济的内在实力提供更清晰的信号， 此前数周的数据因政府停摆而受到干扰"。目前，市场预期美联储到明年年底将降息两次。"今天的数据 结果可能会改变这些预期，从而推动外汇和债券市场的波动，"该市场策略师说。根据Tradeweb的数 据，两年期美国国债收益率稳定在3.505%，而10年期美国国债收益率下跌0.6个基点，至4.174%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming employment and inflation reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are expected to provide insights into the economic situation, but analysts warn that the delayed data may be biased and only partially reflect the economy's health [1][2] - The Federal Reserve recently voted to lower interest rates to a three-year low, revealing deep divisions within the central bank regarding whether to prioritize a weak job market or rising inflation [1][2] - The unprecedented government shutdown has exacerbated uncertainty, as data collection was paused, leading to delays and cancellations of key reports, complicating policymakers' understanding of the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming employment data will cover November and part of October, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will only include November data, with October's report canceled [2] - Analysts indicate that the forthcoming employment and inflation data may contain biases due to the shutdown and necessary methodological adjustments, making it difficult to draw significant conclusions from the data for October, November, or December [2] - There is notable disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent and pace of potential interest rate cuts, particularly influenced by employment data, which could significantly impact future monetary policy [2]

Group 1 - President Trump believes that despite perceived economic successes, the Republican Party may face challenges in the upcoming midterm elections [1] - Trump's economic policies, including broad tariffs on imports, are claimed to be creating jobs, boosting the stock market, and attracting more investment to the U.S. [1] - Voter dissatisfaction with the economy, particularly regarding rising food prices, influenced recent local elections, resulting in Democratic victories in key states [1] Group 2 - A recent poll indicates that 68% of respondents view the U.S. economy as "bad," with about 40% expecting it to worsen next year [1] - The White House has organized a nationwide speaking tour for Trump to bolster public confidence in the U.S. economy ahead of the midterm elections [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September 2023 [1] - The Fed will initiate a short-term Treasury bond purchase program to adjust market liquidity levels and maintain stable control over its interest rate target system [1] - Following the Fed's announcement, all three major U.S. stock indices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.43% [1] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting towards future interest rate changes, with expectations that the pace of rate cuts will slow down significantly in 2024 [2] - Analysts suggest that even with a potential change in Fed leadership, the space for unexpected rate cuts in 2026 remains limited due to inflationary pressures [2] - The macro team at China International Capital Corporation predicts that the Fed may cut rates twice in 2026, but at a slower pace, with the next potential cut in March [2]

Economic Overview - The U.S. consumer prices have significantly decreased, but there is a stark contrast between the government's optimistic portrayal and the reality faced by ordinary families [1][2] - Trump claims that making the U.S. affordable again is a top priority, especially as midterm elections approach, indicating a growing concern among Republicans about voter sentiment [1] Price Changes - Some prices have decreased, such as gasoline and eggs, with eggs dropping from $5 to $3 per dozen [2] - However, housing costs have risen by 7.2% year-over-year, with average monthly rent for a standard apartment exceeding $2,000 [2] Public Sentiment - Many citizens express frustration on social media, highlighting that savings from reduced fuel and egg prices do not cover rising mortgage costs [3] - A recent poll shows Trump's approval rating has increased by 3 percentage points to 41%, yet 62% of respondents believe the economy is declining [6] Political Dynamics - Trump attributes economic concerns to the previous administration and the Federal Reserve's past interest rate policies, framing them as a Democratic "scam" [4] - The Democratic Party has capitalized on economic issues, achieving victories in local elections, which has prompted Republican leaders to pressure the White House to focus on domestic economic issues [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates twice to stimulate the economy, currently at approximately 3.9%, while the inflation rate remains at 3%, exceeding the target of 2% [6] - The Fed faces a challenging situation of balancing employment stability and inflation control as midterm elections approach [6]