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贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250926
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 11:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].
TMGM外汇平台:欧元兑美元仍受困于低点附近,市场关注美国通胀
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 11:04
Group 1 - The euro has rebounded from a three-week low but remains constrained below 1.1690, with a slight increase observed on Friday after hitting a daily low of 1.1645, although it is expected to see a weekly decline of 0.55% [1] - Strong U.S. GDP growth and a decrease in initial jobless claims have alleviated concerns about the U.S. economy, boosting the dollar and reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, exceeding the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending, although weak export activity partially offset this growth [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced new tariffs on heavy trucks, brand-name drugs, and cabinets, raising concerns about global trade uncertainty and negatively impacting risk appetite in Asian markets [2][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of a modest rise in overall PCE inflation to 2.7% [2][4] - Following the release of positive economic data, investors have reduced bets on Federal Reserve easing, with the probability of a rate cut in October dropping from over 90% to 87% [3]
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250926
投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250926 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观:美国二季度 GDP 上修,国内反内卷持续推进 海外方面,美国二季度 GDP 终值年化增速上修至 3.8%,创近两年新高,主要受消费强 劲和进口下滑推动;PCE 物价指数维持 2.6%,显示通胀压力仍顽固;上周首申人数大幅回 落至 21.8 万人,创 7 月以来新低。特朗普称 10 月 1 日起,美对厨浴柜加征 50%、药品 100%、 软家具 30%关税。美元指数持续反弹至 98.5,美债利率上行,美股走低,金价高位震荡,油 价走平,铜价回落。今晚关注美国 8 月 PCE 及 9 月密歇根调研软数据。 国内方面,近期各行业反内卷持续推进:①有色金属工业协会召开会议,坚决反对铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争;②农业农村部强化生猪产能综合调控,切实做好保供稳价工作。A 股窄幅震荡偏暖,阿里 AI 进展提振市场风险偏好,双创板块延续领涨,两市超 3800 只个股 收跌、赚钱效应偏弱,成交额走平在 2.4 ...
IC外汇平台:美联储官员释放关键信号,降息会放缓吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 05:00
施密德进一步解释了美联储区域架构的优势。地区储备银行与本地经济的紧密联系,使政策制定能更精准反映不同区域的 经济状况,这种"贴近地面"的视角在货币政策和监管实践中均发挥着关键作用。他相信,这种结构有助于在维护金融稳定 的同时,保持对经济变化的敏锐感知。 在美联储内部对降息节奏存在分歧的背景下,施密德的立场体现了务实与谨慎的平衡。他既认可适度降息对劳动力市场的 支持作用,又坚持通过持续数据跟踪来校准政策力度。这种态度贯穿于他对经济风险评估的始终,也映射出美联储在复杂 经济环境中的决策逻辑——既非一味宽松,亦非过度收紧,而是通过动态调整寻求最优路径。 施密德特别强调了数据在决策中的核心地位。他指出,未来任何利率调整都将紧密围绕通胀和就业市场的实时数据展开, 而非预设路径。这种基于数据的策略使他更倾向于"少降息"立场,尤其在观察到近期经济数据中隐现的通胀持续风险或突 然放缓迹象时。他认为,政策制定者需持续评估双重使命——稳定物价与促进就业——之间的风险平衡,避免单一目标主 导决策。 在银行监管领域,施密德着重强调了美联储独立性的价值。他指出,独立于政治影响的监管机构能更专注长期金融稳定, 在市场波动中保持灵活应对能 ...
股指早报:A股缩量反弹,股指维持震荡整固-20250925
Chuang Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 09:47
股指早报 A 股缩量反弹,股指维持震荡整固 2025 年 9 月 25 日 股指期货早报 2025.9.25 报告摘要: 海外方面,美 8 月新屋销售总数年化 80 万户,高于预期 65 和前 值 66.4,数据指向美房地产的韧性。另外美联储官员古尔斯比表示 下次会议不愿支持降息。在昨日美联储主席鲍威尔向市场释放对后续 美联储货币政策不确定信号后,美联储官员释放的鹰派信号指向目前 美联储官员内部观点差异较大。打压了市场对于美联储降息预期。隔 夜美元指数上涨,美债收益率短端和长端上行,黄金下跌,美三大股 指集体下跌,纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨,离岸人民币汇率贬值。目 前地缘政治不确定性增加,俄罗斯被制裁风险也在上升,资产波动率 在上升。 国内盘面上看,周三大盘上涨 0.83%,深成指上涨 1.8%,创业板 指上涨 2.28%,市场呈现反弹走势。在 924 一周年,上一轮指数快涨, 此轮明显节奏慢下来,且主要是围绕科技板块的结构性行情。板块上 看,电力设备、电子、传媒、计算机、房地产涨幅居前,银行、煤炭、 通信下跌。全市场 4457 只个股上涨,852 只个股下跌。消息上看, 阿里 CEO 吴泳铭表示在推进三年 3 ...
美国政府停摆倒计时!特朗普威胁联邦机构大裁员
第一财经· 2025-09-25 07:21
2025.09. 25 本文字数:1925,阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 在9月30日美国政府可能再次陷入停摆之际,美国总统特朗普拒绝与民主党人会面。同时,白宫管理 和预算办公室在当地时间周三(24日),给联邦机构发送的备忘录中,要求后者在政府可能再次关 门的情况下,甄别那些无法再获得资金的项目,并对项目和相关人员进行永久裁撤而非仅仅在政府关 门期间短暂离职。 美国政府再面临停摆风险 若美国政府9月30日停摆,将是美国政府自1981年以来第15次关门。以往政府停摆期间,部分联邦 机构被迫停摆,联邦雇员被迫无薪休假,一些公共服务与政府合同付款会中断,市场与公众也会受到 连锁冲击。 美国的财政问题早已非一朝一夕。保德信固定收益副主席、首席全球经济学家兼全球宏观经济研究主 管西恩(Daleep Singh)在上周美联储降息且偏"鸽派"后,对一财记者表达了对于美国经济、通 胀、财政前景的忧虑。"尽管美国经济增长高于趋势、财政政策宽松且通胀上升,但美联储仍采取宽 松的货币政策。美联储最新经济预测摘要显示,美联储将以循序渐进的方式迈向中性利率,预计约为 3%。"然而,他称,"最近一次美联储会议展示了后鲍 ...
美国政府停摆倒计时!特朗普威胁联邦机构大裁员
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 06:51
若9月30日再次停摆,将是美国政府自1981年以来第15次停摆。 在9月30日美国政府可能再次陷入停摆之际,美国总统特朗普拒绝与民主党人会面。同时,白宫管理和预算办公室 在当地时间周三(24日),给联邦机构发送的备忘录中,要求后者在政府可能再次关门的情况下,甄别那些无法 再获得资金的项目,并对项目和相关人员进行永久裁撤而非仅仅在政府关门期间短暂离职。 美国的财政问题早已非一朝一夕。保德信固定收益副主席、首席全球经济学家兼全球宏观经济研究主管西恩 (Daleep Singh)在上周美联储降息且偏"鸽派"后,对一财记者表达了对于美国经济、通胀、财政前景的忧 虑。"尽管美国经济增长高于趋势、财政政策宽松且通胀上升,但美联储仍采取宽松的货币政策。美联储最新经济 预测摘要显示,美联储将以循序渐进的方式迈向中性利率,预计约为3%。"然而,他称,"最近一次美联储会议展 示了后鲍威尔时代应对机制的潜在变动,出现了一个较低和偏离的点阵图:2025年约为2.75%,2027年则低于 2.5%。该偏低预测被认为来自新任美联储理事米兰(Stephen Miran),他此次赞成降息50个基点。" 美国政府再面临停摆风险 当地时间周三, ...
贝森特:不理解鲍威尔为何“退缩”,敦促年底前降息100-150个基点,正在面试11位主席候选人
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-25 04:09
在批评鲍威尔的同时,贝森特对新上任的美联储理事米兰大加赞赏 ,称其为理事会注入了"新鲜血液"。 由特朗普总统提名、并于上周美联储会议前获得参议 院批准的米兰,是一位激进降息的倡导者。 美国财政部长贝森特罕见地公开表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满,批评其未能为降息建立清晰的议程,凸显出美国政府与美联储在货币政策路径上的分歧日 益加剧。 贝森特周三在接受媒体采访时表示, 当前的利率"限制性过强,需要下调"。 他指出, 对于鲍威尔未能在年底前释放至少降息100至150个基点的信号,他感 到"有些惊讶"。 贝森特的此番言论,与鲍威尔前一日的审慎表态形成鲜明对比。鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州的一场活动中重申,美联储正面临劳动力市场走弱和通胀上行风险并存 的"挑战性局面"。他强调,双向风险意味着不存在"无风险的路径",暗示了其在进一步放宽政策上的谨慎态度。 这场公开的政策分歧,发生在白宫正在物色鲍威尔继任者的微妙时刻。贝森特透露, 他正在面试11名候选人以接替鲍威尔的职位,他正在寻找一位思想开放的 人来担任美联储主席。 新任理事的异议之声 鲍威尔的审慎立场 在权衡未来决策时,鲍威尔正努力在两大对立的经济风险之间寻找平衡。据他在普罗 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250924
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 09:52
大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人:车红云 期货从业证号:F03088215 投资咨询从业证号:Z0017510 研究员:王伟 期货从业证号:F03143400 投资咨询从业证号:Z0022141 研究员:陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号:F03107034 投资咨询从业证号:Z0018401 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号:F03129697 投资咨询从业证号:Z0020351 联系方式: 上海:021-65789219 北京:010-68569781 1.期货:今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 79960 元/吨,涨幅 0.03%,沪铜指数减仓 2833 手至 46.39 万手。 2.现货:国庆备货情绪较弱,沪铜现货升水继续僵持,报升水 55 元/吨,持平上一交易日。 广东受台风影响到货量继续下降,今日交投冷清,报升水 70 元/吨,持平昨日。华北消费 疲软,延续清淡格局,报贴水 90 元/吨,持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1. 9 月 23 日,加拿大矿业公司 Hudbay Minerals 周二表示,因安全问题,旗下位于秘鲁 Con ...
9月24日汇市早评:美联储主席表示政策利率仍然略带限制性 美元指数稳定于97.00上方
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-24 02:42
Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 97.33, with mixed movements in major non-USD currencies [1] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate rising by 49 basis points to 7.1057 [3] - The Australian dollar has recently declined, breaking key support levels, but may show potential for recovery if it maintains above certain moving averages [4] - The USD/JPY pair shows signs of upward momentum, with key resistance levels identified at 148.57 and 149.00 [5] - The EUR/USD pair has experienced a pullback but remains above significant moving averages, with potential downward pressure if it falls below certain trend lines [5] Economic Indicators - The focus for today includes the German IFO Business Climate Index to be released at 16:00 [1][9] - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from a previous estimate of 2.9% [8] Key Events - US President Trump is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly [9] - Australia will release its August weighted CPI year-on-year data [9] - The US will report on new home sales and EIA crude oil inventories later in the day [10]