| | | 地产板块构成拖累，而汽车、家电等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，氛围有 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 所回暖，现货升水回升，国内库存小幅下降；LME锌去库放慢，现货升水高位。技术面，持仓减量价格调 整，多头氛围减弱，关注MA60支撑。观点参考：预计沪锌震荡调整，关注2.23-2.26。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锌产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in the exchange rate, approaching 88.80, is primarily influenced by the overall strength of the US dollar and market adjustments to Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [1][2]. Policy Background and Market Expectations - In October, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with most policymakers favoring rate stability to avoid hindering inflation's return to the 2% target [2]. - Disagreements emerged among officials regarding further rate cuts during the December meeting, with some arguing that continued easing could elevate inflation expectations and undermine public confidence in achieving inflation targets [2]. - Market tools indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%-3.75% in December dropped from 50.1% to 32.8%, reflecting a significant re-evaluation of monetary policy expectations [2]. Dollar Index and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The dollar index recently reached a five-month high of approximately 100.40, indicating the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, which has supported the rise of the dollar against the Indian rupee [3]. - The dollar's strength is attributed to market expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties in the global economic environment [3]. Technical Analysis Perspective - Technically, the dollar-rupee exchange rate found support near the 20-day exponential moving average, ending a four-day decline, with the average positioned around 88.70 [5]. - Momentum indicators show the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to around 60.00, suggesting potential bullish momentum if it remains above this level [5]. - Key support is identified at the August 21 low of 87.07, while the historical high of 89.12 is noted as a critical resistance level to watch [5].

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

关键位置： 阻力：4100 (心理关口 & 初步阻力)，4120-4130 (更强阻力区，前支撑转化而来) 支撑：4060-4070 (近期震荡低点区域)，4040 (关键支撑，跌破将打开更大下行空间) 二、个人思路与策略 个人倾向在关键阻力位附近寻找逢高做空的机会，因整体趋势偏弱。 反弹做空：价格反弹至4100 - 4110 区域，并出现如看跌K线组合（刺透、乌云盖顶等）或指标背离等滞涨信号。 入场区域：4100 - 4110，止损：4125 上方，目标：4080 - 4065 突破空：价格有效跌破 4060-4070 支撑区域。 反弹至4075-4085时轻仓跟进，止损：4100 上方，目标：4040 - 4020 三、需要重点关注的消息面（未来24-48小时） 美联储货币政策会议纪要（重中之重） 时间：北京时间明日（11月20日）凌晨03:00 影响：将揭示美联储官员对于通胀和利率路径的最新内部观点，可能引发市场剧烈波动。任何鹰派（倾向于加息或维持高利率）信号都将利 空黄金。 其他重要数据/事件： 今晚美国房地产数据。 明日晚间美国初请失业金人数。 四、关键注意事项与风控 严格止损：任何策略都必须预设止 ...

美国财政部11月18日公布的最新国际资本流动报告(TIC)数据显示，9月份海外投资者持有的美国国债总 额为9.249万亿美元，低于上月的9.2662万亿美元。 中国第五次减持 全球主要经济体的美债持仓情况正发生微妙变化。日本作为美债最大的海外持有国，在9月份增持89亿 美元，总规模达到了1.189万亿美元，创2022年8月以来新高。这也是日本连续9个月增持美债。 受降息因素推动，8月、9月期间美债收益率震荡走低，10年期美债收益率最大振幅超过40个基点，一度 跌破4%。 在美政府"停摆"结束后，美联储鹰声渐浓，使得市场对降息的预期大幅降温。目前，10年美债收益率已 升至4.15%。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利则由鸽转鹰，指出经济活动的基本韧性比预期的要强，并不支持美联储 上一次的降息决策。 美联储主席鲍威尔曾在10月末明确表示，12月降息远非板上钉钉。 中国则在8月小幅增持41亿美元后，9月转而减持5亿美元，使总持仓降至7005亿美元。这是中国今年第 五次减持美债。自2011年持仓规模达到逾1.3万亿美元的峰值以来，中国就一直在逐步减持美 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货11月19日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计547685千克，今日仓单较上一 日下跌15986千克。 美联储理事巴尔金周二表示，他希望即将公布的数据和正在进行的社区访谈能够帮助明确经济走向，目 前美联储决策者仍然围绕通胀和就业目标哪一个面临更大风险争论不休，并且在货币政策方向上存在分 歧。 巴尔金在为弗吉尼亚州的一次活动准备的讲话稿以及在接受媒体采访时分别表示，现有数据和社区访谈 表明，经济处于一种"不理想"的平衡状态，通胀率高于美联储2%目标，且未显示出明显的上升或下降 趋势，失业率可能会上升，但升幅不会太大。 巴尔金提到，亚马逊、Verizon和Target等大型企业近期的裁员公告"让人对劳动力市场更加谨慎"。他还 表示，企业联系人对里士满联储的反馈让他认为，"通胀仍略高，但不太可能大幅上升"。在会后接受采 访时，巴尔金表示他同意美联储主席鲍威尔关于12月是否降息"远未成定局"的说法。 沪银主力短线维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报11760元/千克，最高触及12173元/千克，最低触及 11760元/千克，截止收盘报12148元/千克，上涨2.19%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 ...

近期随着美国这场历时最长的政府 "停摆"结束，超过40日的"关门"对经济带来的冲击将得到更为明确的衡量，市场焦点重新回到 美联储货币政策路径以及关税对通胀的影响方面。前期在美联储即将结束缩表及"鸽派"官员支持12月进一步降息的情况下，国际 金价得到提振走强，自4000美元／盎司下方回到4200美元／盎司以上高位，但上周末由于美联储鹰派官员表态打压12月降息预 期，金价当周涨幅迅速收窄，回调至4100美元／盎司下方，国内金价则相对抗跌。 地缘局势方面，目前全球地缘冲突频发，使市场避险情绪难以消退。 尽管宏观因素影响增大，但黄金投资等需求强劲仍支撑价格。据世界黄金协会统计，2025年三季度全球黄金总需求为1258吨，比 二季度回升16%，同比增长7%，黄金价格在4—8月盘整之后再度迎来上涨，各个领域的需求均有所增加，特别是ETF和央行购金 需求比二季度显著上升，首饰需求亦脱离2020年以来新低而出现回升。ETF需求方面，10月在金价大幅拉升后回落的背景下，全 球黄金ETF持仓整体维持净流入。其中，北美地区流入规模最大，达到47吨，亚洲地区增持45吨，但欧洲地区净流出37.4吨。在 美联储宽松货币政策及美国政府"关 ...

美国财政部18日公布最新国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，主要海外投资者持有的美国国债规模在2025年9月环比下降136亿美元，至9.25万亿美元。 此前，这一规模连续四个月环比增加，8月达到9.26万亿美元。 美国海外前三大"债主"操作有所分化，日本维持今年以来一贯的增仓操作，8月、9月分别买入美债89亿美元、290亿美元。英国的美债仓位在9月增 加50亿美元，随后在9月大笔卖出393亿美元。中国大陆的美债持仓规模保持稳定，8月小幅增41亿美元，9月即再度回落5亿美元至7005亿美元。 今年以来，加拿大的美债持仓规模波动剧烈，月环比变动多次超过500亿美元，其中，在4月和7月，先后两次卖出超过500亿美元美债。 除日本和加拿大外，比利时、卢森堡、挪威、韩国和沙特阿拉伯也在8月、9月选择连续买入美债，两月合计买入规模分别为386亿美元、160亿美 元、79亿美元、104亿美元和26亿美元。 与之相对，法国、印度和巴西则在8月、9月连续卖出美债，持仓规模合计分别下降了156亿美元、170亿美元和290亿美元。不同的操作策略体现了不 同国家／地区从自身经济形势和货币政策出发，在投资美债方面的差异化立场与考量。 从美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also points out that each commodity has its own supply - demand characteristics and market influencing factors, and investors should make decisions based on these factors and market signals. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold rebounded at night on Tuesday, with London gold back above $4000. The US employment data was weak, and domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [4]. - Silver's tight situation is gradually easing, and it is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [4]. Base Metals - Copper prices oscillated weakly. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic weekly start - up data improved. It is advisable to wait for clearer macro signals [3]. - Aluminum prices may continue to decline in the short term. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [3]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Some alumina plants carried out early maintenance or reduced loads, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to change [5]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. The supply decreased slightly, and the organic silicon industry planned to cut production by 30% [5]. - Lithium carbonate prices have support in the short term but face weak long - term expectations. The demand was strong in November - December, but the long - term demand was expected to decline [5]. - Polysilicon prices are affected by news. The supply decreased slightly, and the market was disturbed by news, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Tin prices oscillated strongly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the market was concerned about the continued low exports from Indonesia [5]. Black Industry - Rebar futures are undervalued, and hot - rolled coil futures are overvalued. The supply and demand of steel were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. It is recommended to hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [7]. - Iron ore prices may decline. The supply and demand of iron ore were weak, and the futures were in a forward - discount structure [7]. - Coking coal prices may decline. The steel mills continued to lose money, and the coking coal futures were in a forward - premium structure [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: US soybeans are short - term strong, but the bullish factors have basically emerged. The domestic market may be weak in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [8]. - Corn: As the supply of corn in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - Oils: The overall trend of oils is expected to be oscillating and strong. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [9]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. The international sugar market may decline in the long term, and the domestic market will follow [9]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see. The international cotton harvest rate was lower than in previous years, and the domestic commercial inventory was higher [9]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply pressure decreased, but the demand was weak [9]. - Pigs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply was abundant, and the demand increased seasonally [9]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see. The high - quality apple production decreased, and the inventory decreased [10]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand declined [10]. - PVC: It is recommended to short or conduct a reverse spread. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [10]. - PTA: It is recommended to short the processing margin in the far - month contracts. The supply pressure was large in the long term [10]. - Rubber: It is recommended to operate in a band - trading manner. The raw material prices were strong, and the inventory increased [10][11]. - Glass: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was high [11]. - PP: In the short term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak [11]. - MEG: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the demand entered the off - season [11]. - Crude oil: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply was affected by sanctions and geopolitical risks, and the demand was in the off - season [11][12]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate. The supply and demand improved marginally, but the overall contradiction was still large [12]. - Soda ash: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand were balanced [12]. - Urea: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was in the off - season, but the export news had a certain impact [12].

新华财经北京11月18日电投资者准备评估因政府停摆结束后补发推迟的就业数据，美债收益率周二（18日）盘前全线下跌。 其它市场方面，英债周二小幅波动，收益率涨多跌少，其中2年期英债收益率跌0.8BP至3.796%，10年期英债收益率跌0.2BP至4.537%， 30年期英债收益率涨0.5BP至5.355%。 亚太市场方面，长期日债连续第二日遭投资者抛售。周二盘中及盘后交易，中短债日债收益率下行，长期日债收益率上行，截至发稿 时，2年期日债收益率跌1BP至0.925%，10年期日债收益率涨2.1BPs至1.75%，20年期日债收益率涨4.6BPs至2.791%，30年期日债收益率 涨5.6BPs至3.315%。 美联储12月进一步降息的预期最近有所减弱，因为史上持续时间最长的政府停摆导致的数据中断给整体经济前景蒙上了阴影。随着美联 储对未来货币政策路径的分歧越来越大，投资者现在正密切关注几个关键的经济指标，这些指标将在未来几天公布，以帮助应对不确定 性。 这一系列数据包括定于周三公布的8月份贸易平衡数据，以及周四公布的美国劳工统计局 9月份非农就业报告。在这些数据公布之前， ADP就业变化周报将于周二公布美国私营 ...