Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $4,070 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic expectations, global risks, and long-term institutional buying, rather than mere speculative trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, leading investors to anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year, which benefits gold in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4]. - Inflation in the U.S. is declining, and economic slowdown is prompting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [4][7]. Group 2: Global Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in European and American markets are causing capital to flow out of high-risk assets and into safer investments like gold [5][7]. - The rise in gold prices reflects growing global market concerns about economic stagnation, weak consumer confidence, and pressured corporate earnings [7][12]. Group 3: Institutional Buying - Central banks and institutional investors are significantly increasing their gold holdings, with the World Gold Council reporting record net purchases by official sectors this year [6][10]. - The trend indicates a structural return to gold as a long-term investment, moving beyond short-term speculation [7][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar enhances gold's appeal, making it cheaper for investors using other currencies, thus contributing to rising demand [7][12]. - The breakout above the $4,000 resistance level suggests a new pricing phase for gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - High gold prices are increasing jewelry prices but are also stimulating demand in certain regions, such as China, where initiatives like "old-for-new" and investment in gold bars are gaining popularity [11]. Group 6: Macro Implications - The sustained rise in gold prices signals heightened global risk concerns and reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, indicating a potential preparation for a new economic cycle [12].

金价拉升。 11月10日午后，贵金属市场大幅拉升走高，黄金期现涨幅均超过2%，白银期货涨幅一度超过4%，其他 贵金属亦不同程度走高。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨2.51%，报4101.06美元/盎司；COMEX黄金涨2.59%， 报4113.5美元/盎司；伦敦银现涨3.5%，报50.018美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨3.99%，报50.065美元/盎 司；现货铂金涨2.59%，NYMEX铂涨2.79%；现货钯金涨3.14%，NYMEX钯涨2.27%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦全现 | 4101.060 | 100.350 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银现 | 50.018 | 1.692 | 3.50% | | COMEX黄金 | 4113.5 d | 103.7 | 2.59% | | COMEX白银 | 50.065 d | 1.922 | 3.99% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 938.6415 | 22.9679 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 11448.0088 | 387.2612 | 3.50% ...

Group 1 - On November 10, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 928.10 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 7.88 CNY compared to the futures main price of 935.98 CNY per gram [1] - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 2.00% and a trading volume of 320,688 contracts [1] - The U.S. Senate advanced a federal government temporary funding bill, which received the necessary 60 votes to move forward, potentially ending a record 40-day government shutdown [1] Group 2 - As of last Friday, the Shanghai gold price increased by 0.32% over the week, while the Shanghai silver price rose by 0.65% during the same period [2] - The People's Bank of China maintained its gold purchases, with gold reserves reported at 74.09 million ounces at the end of October, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month [2] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for November fell to 50.3, below the previous value of 53.6 and the expected value of 53.2 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices are both in a state of oscillation. The hope of the end of the US government shutdown has stabilized risk appetite, and the prices of both precious metals are expected to be slightly bearish in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. - For gold, although US consumer confidence is near a record low, the hope of the end of the government shutdown affects its price. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 0.4 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, being included in the US critical minerals list may bring tariff concerns and provide some support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US consumer confidence is near a record low, but the hope of the end of the government shutdown causes gold price oscillation. US stock indices show mixed performance, European stock indices fall, US bond yields rise (10 - year yield up 1.54 basis points to 4.097%), the US dollar index falls 0.16% to 99.55, and COMEX gold futures rise 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, the main position is net long but with a reduction in long positions [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, affected by the situation in the US, silver price oscillates. It is included in the US critical minerals list, and tariff concerns may support the price. COMEX silver futures rise 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. The basis shows the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the release of the summary of the opinions of the Japanese central bank's deliberation committee members, the euro - zone investor confidence index, the preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index, and the possible release of Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders [4][17]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: The Japanese central bank publishes the summary of the opinions of its deliberation committee members. - 13:00: The preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index is released. - 17:30: The euro - zone November Sentix investor confidence index is announced. - Indefinite: Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders may be released [17]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The futures price is 921.26, the spot price is 918, with a basis of - 3.26 (spot at a discount to futures). The futures warehouse receipt is 89,616 kg, an increase of 1,800 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The futures price is 11,484, the spot price is 11,481, with a basis of - 3 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 623,052 kg, a daily decrease of 16,888 kg [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main players is decreasing. For example, on November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 165,261, an increase of 2,283 (1.40%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 67,608, an increase of 934 (1.40%); the net position is 97,653, an increase of 1,349 (1.40%) [33]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main players is increasing. On November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 354,598, an increase of 14,183 (4.17%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 255,979, an increase of 4,872 (1.94%); the net position is 98,619, an increase of 9,311 (10.43%) [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities having various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external policies [1][3][4]. - Some commodities like焦煤,黄金, and白银 have relatively positive outlooks in the short - to - long term, while others such as沥青, rubber, and methanol are expected to be weak [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **焦煤**: Domestic supply is disrupted, import supplement is limited, and the spot market is stable and slightly strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot is short - term easy to rise and hard to fall, while the futures may oscillate [1]. - **螺纹钢**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but the cost support from winter storage and potential policy benefits may lead to a low - level wide - range oscillation [3]. - **铁矿石**: After the peak of arrivals, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance. The price may oscillate and strengthen after a rapid decline [4]. - **白银**: Short - term oscillation and long - term bullish due to the changing risk sentiment and the divergence from gold [8]. **Agricultural Products** - **生猪**: Supply pressure is large, terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the price has short - term downward pressure [5]. - **棕榈油**: The production reduction expectation fails, and the supply pressure restricts the price increase. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [5]. - **菜粕**: Supply is rigidly short, and the price decline risk is reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **沥青**: Cost support weakens, and the off - peak demand increases the downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **橡胶**: Demand lacks substantial benefits, and the trade barriers and inventory issues lead to a weak outlook [9]. - **甲醇**: The port inventory accumulates slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - **纯碱**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. **Others** - **长期国债**: Economic recovery does not interfere with monetary policy, and the bond market has increasing positive factors. It is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [10]. - **塑料**: Supply is high, demand is off - peak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%, indicating a release of liquidity but uncertainty about future rate cuts due to mixed economic data [1] - Current U.S. economic indicators show "moderate inflation decline and weakening employment momentum," with fluctuating prices of essential goods affecting inflation stability [1] - The ongoing budget negotiations and partial government shutdown have increased fiscal uncertainty, amplifying market volatility and leading to heightened interest in defensive assets like gold and bonds [1] Group 2 - In response to a complex external environment, multiple central banks are strengthening regional financial cooperation through tools like currency swap agreements and cross-border liquidity arrangements [2] - There is a frequent flow of funds between safe-haven and risk assets, with institutional investors adopting defensive strategies and increasing allocations to options and hedging tools to prepare for potential market volatility [2] - The current global market dynamics are driven by two main themes: central banks recalibrating policies amid inflation and employment challenges, and rising demand for safe-haven assets due to fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties [2]

Market Overview - Gold prices are trading around $3984 per ounce, having approached $4020 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand [1][5] - U.S. crude oil is trading at approximately $59.72 per barrel, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive month due to oversupply and weak demand [1][9] Economic Indicators - China's October trade balance in RMB is reported at 6454.7 billion, with imports and exports showing year-on-year changes of 7.5% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of deterioration, with a 183.1% increase in announced layoffs in October, marking the highest figure for that month in over 20 years [4] Commodity Market - The U.S. government has added uranium, copper, and silver to its critical minerals list, indicating a focus on domestic supply for national security and infrastructure development [7][15] - Analysts predict gold prices could reach between $4300 and $4400 per ounce by year-end due to ongoing uncertainties [7] Stock Market - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.12%, and Nasdaq down 1.90%, driven by high valuations and economic uncertainty [4] - Despite strong earnings reports, with 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, concerns about the economic outlook persist [4] Oil Market - International oil prices continue to decline, with Brent crude at $63.38 and U.S. crude at $59.43, facing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [9][11] - U.S. oil inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels, contributing to downward pressure on prices [11] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.42% to 99.70, influenced by weak labor market data and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][14]

Group 1 - Recent positive signals in US-China relations, including the US pausing sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry and initiating a public consultation process to suspend tariff increases for one year, are seen as significant progress in bilateral relations, boosting market confidence [1] - The Dow Jones futures rose approximately 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.25% and 0.33% respectively, following a period of market pressure due to corrections in the technology and AI sectors [1] - The latest employment data indicates signs of economic cooling, with October layoffs exceeding 153,000, marking the highest level in over 20 years, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60% the previous week, which has contributed to a positive sentiment in the stock market and provided solid support for gold [1] - Despite an increase in risk appetite, safe-haven sentiment has not completely dissipated due to concerns over the ongoing US government shutdown, which has lasted over five weeks, potentially impacting the economy [1] - The US Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of presidential tariff powers have heightened policy uncertainty, leading to a resurgence of safe-haven sentiment that supports gold prices [1] Group 3 - Gold (XAU/USD) stabilized above $4,000 but failed to break the overnight high, with market volatility increasing due to the divergence between the dollar's rebound and rate cut expectations [2] - Technically, if gold prices break through the resistance zone of $4,020–$4,030, they may further test the $4,045–$4,050 range and approach the $4,100 mark; conversely, a drop below the support zone of $3,975–$3,965 could see prices retreat to around $3,929 [2] - The market remains in a pattern of intertwining policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment, with gold supported by both rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, maintaining its position above $4,000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese investors have significantly withdrawn from overseas equity and bond markets in response to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, opting to lock in profits from previous market gains [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - For the week ending November 1, Japanese investors net sold 581.1 billion yen (approximately 3.85 billion USD) in foreign stocks, marking the largest weekly sell-off since October 4 [1] - Additionally, they reduced holdings in long-term foreign bonds by 354.4 billion yen and short-term bonds by 798.7 billion yen, indicating a cautious stance towards overseas fixed-income assets [1][5] - The MSCI World Index has declined by 1.6% this week, poised for its first weekly drop in four weeks [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, emphasizing a balanced labor market and sustained inflation above the 2% target, dampened expectations for rate cuts in December [2][3] - This shift in sentiment has prompted Japanese investors to reassess the risk-reward profile of their overseas asset allocations [3] Group 3: Contrasting Trends - In contrast to the sell-off in foreign assets, foreign investors have net bought Japanese stocks for the fifth consecutive week, purchasing approximately 690.1 billion yen in local shares, reflecting ongoing confidence in the Japanese market [5] - Despite this, the Nikkei 225 index has seen a decline of about 5% this week, with significant losses in technology stocks, highlighting the global market's impact on Japan [5] - Japanese long-term bonds experienced a net inflow of approximately 280.6 billion yen after two weeks of foreign capital outflow, while foreign investors also acquired short-term debt instruments valued at 1.83 trillion yen, indicating a preference for yen-denominated assets [5]

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]