2025年06月16日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周五贵金属市场因伊以冲突再次冲高；基本面：美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机 冰箱在列；美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%，5 月份美国 PPI 整体涨幅依然温和，核心 PPI 创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平；美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 24.8 万人，高于预期的 24.2 万 人，也高于前值 24.7 万人，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，减少 4 吨；上期所黄金库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银 库存 1210 吨，比前一交易日减少 16 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15495 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14729 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 肖震冬】第51届七国集团（G7）峰会于当地时间15日至17日在加拿大艾伯塔省卡 纳纳斯基斯举行。在美国总统特朗普再度返回G7峰会时，"他已经带领全球经济经历了一场过山车式的 起伏"，彭博社13日报道称，而这一次，美国关税政策在国内外遭遇了日益增长的反对，"再次深刻地提 醒人们贸易战的高昂代价"。 同时，美国政府的关税政策也在挑战其作为多数国家主要经济伙伴的角色，及对全球经济议程的影响 力。彭博社的研究模型显示，美国关税政策可能使其在全球贸易中的份额从22%降至16%。这在亚洲市 场尤为明显，当前中国已是该地区多数国家最大贸易伙伴。原TPP成员国（亚太地区）对华贸易占比 23%，对美贸易仅占13%，关税政策可能将美国份额压至11%。 特朗普退出TPP的后果在8年后的今天仍然体现在盟友态度的转变上。 特朗普的关税也打击了许多美国 盟友的经济。随着出口下滑，加拿大等贸易伙伴正面临陷入衰退的可能性。日本和德国标志性的汽车行 业也面临着生存威胁。目前有三个G7成员（加拿大、日本和英国）已加入TPP的"继承者"《全面与进步 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。报道援引日本内阁府前高级经济学家川崎健 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On June 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.04% to 785.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.88% to 8819 yuan/kg [2]. - In the short - term, due to the warming of Middle - East geopolitics, uncertainties in tariffs and fees, better - than - expected data in the US in June, and the cooling of core PPI in May, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August has increased, the US dollar index has fallen below 100 again, which boosts the rebound of gold prices. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term upward view remains unchanged. For silver, the repair of the gold - silver ratio is basically established, and the silver price is expected to return to the macro + fundamental logic, with a risk of further weakening in the short - term [2]. - In the medium - and long - term, the background of the trade war still exists, the US economy still faces downward risks, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With the intensification of great - power games and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold purchases continue, and the monetary attribute of gold is constantly strengthened. The medium - and long - term upward trend has not changed. The strategy is to continue to allocate more on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On June 12, 2025, London gold spot was 3373.58 dollars/ounce, up 1.1% from June 11; London silver spot was 36.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.9%; COMEX gold was 3393.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%; COMEX silver was 36.38 dollars/ounce, down 1.0%. AU2508 was 785.16 yuan/gram, up 1.0%; AG2508 was 8819 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; AU (T + D) was 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.9%; AG (T + D) was 8798 yuan/kg, down 1.0% [2]. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 10.5% from June 11; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 21 yuan/kg, up 50.0%; the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.90 yuan/gram, down 26.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 89.03, up 1.9%; the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 93.30, up 2.1%; AU2512 - 2508 was 3.72 yuan/gram, down 1.1%; AG2512 - 2508 was 34 yuan/kg, down 12.8% [2]. Position Data - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 934.19 tons, down 0.18% from June 10; the silver ETF - SLV was 14729.07854 tons, up 0.27%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 246982 contracts, up 5.51%; the non - commercial short position was 59077 contracts, down 1.38%; the non - commercial net long position was 187905 contracts, up 7.88%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 81981 contracts, up 11.93%; the non - commercial short position was 21211 contracts, up 4.86%; the non - commercial net long position was 60770 contracts, up 14.63% [2]. Inventory Data - On June 12, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17847.00 kg, up 0.17% from June 11; the SHFE silver inventory was 1226150.00 kg, down 0.30%. On June 11, the COMEX gold inventory was 37929466 troy ounces, with a 0.00% change from June 10; the COMEX silver inventory was 497946180 troy ounces, up 0.56% [2]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On June 12, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, down 0.02% from June 11. On June 11, the US dollar index was 98.65, down 0.41% from June 10; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.94%, down 1.75%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 1.34%; the VIX was 17.26, up 1.83%; the S&P 500 was 6022.24, down 0.27%; the NYMEX crude oil was 68.30 dollars/barrel, up 5.50% [2]. Economic Data - The US May PPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%. The US May core PPI was up 3.0% year - on - year, the lowest since August 2024, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Month - on - month, the May PPI rose only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the core PPI also rose only 0.1%, with commodity prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.2% and service prices up 0.1% [2]. - The UK April GDP contracted 0.3% month - on - month, the first contraction in six months, worse than the expected 0.1% contraction, and the previous value was a 0.2% increase [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, higher than the expected 242,000, and the previous value was 247,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 3 was 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.904 million to 1.902 million [2].

何立峰副总理强调"贸易战没有赢家"，并提出中美双方要"进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断 增进共识、减少误解、加强合作"。 作为发展阶段、经济制度不同的两个大国，中美双方在经贸合作中出现分歧和摩擦是正常的。然而，国 际贸易不可忽视的本质是互利共赢。在全球产业链分工日益细化的今天，世界经济体系高度相互嵌套， 一荣俱荣，这种基于市场选择的自然合作是全球化资源配置的必然结果。近年来，随着美方当局违背经 济规律，倒行逆施单边主义与保护主义，全球政治、经济、贸易局势呈现出显著地恶化趋势。这种将经 贸问题政治化、安全化的做法，不仅撕裂了全球供应链的完整脉络，更在根本上动摇了多边贸易体系的 根基。历史与现实反复印证，贸易战没有赢家，霸凌打压只会造成多败皆伤的困境。当保护主义阴云笼 罩全球经济之际，理性回归的呼声正逐渐汇聚成强大的力量——发展中国家联合捍卫公平贸易原则，跨 国资本用投资选择表达对开放市场的信心，美国国内工商界和农业州也持续发出反制关税的抗议。来自 各方的呼吁清晰表明，世界经济的复苏需要拆除人为藩篱，全球秩序的重构亟须重返合作轨道。 伦敦会议的成果是中美双方正视经贸互利共赢本质，尝试回归经济理性的重要探索。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. - The basis shows a premium for the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish. - Copper inventories decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week, presenting a neutral situation. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish. - With the Fed slowing down interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, and increased uncertainty in US trade tariffs, copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamental analysis: The manufacturing industry is in a recovery trend, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy is relaxed, resulting in a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 79,040 with a basis of 430, indicating a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Copper inventory decreased on June 12, while SHFE inventory increased last week, a neutral situation [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, bullish [2]. - Main positions: Net short positions with an increase in shorts, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will mainly fluctuate due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut slowdown, high - level inventory destocking, and US trade tariff uncertainty [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, with no clear indication of specific bullish or bearish factors [3]. Spot No specific data analysis provided, only the form of spot price, price change, and inventory information is shown [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week [2]. Bonded Area Inventory Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Company Performance - Adobe reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $5.06 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus by $0.10, with revenues of $5.87 billion, surpassing expectations of $5.79 billion, marking an 11% increase year-over-year [4] - Digital Media segment saw an 11% gain in Q2, with Annualized Recurring Revenues (ARR) reaching $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth [5] - RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) reported Q1 earnings of $0.40 per share, significantly beating the Zacks consensus estimate of -$0.09, although revenues were slightly below expectations at $814 million compared to the estimated $818 million [5] Market Context - The market has shown resilience against tariff threats, with major indexes closing in the green, including a +101 point gain for the Dow and a +0.38% increase for the S&P 500 [1] - Bond yields decreased, influenced by cooler-than-expected wholesale inflation data, with the 10-year yield at 4.36% and the 30-year yield down to 4.84% [2] - The ongoing trade war narrative has led to market fatigue, as the market appears to be less reactive to new tariff announcements after the "Liberation Day" tariffs were imposed [3] Strategic Adjustments - RH's CEO indicated that 52% of the company's upholstered furniture is now produced in the U.S., addressing tariff implications, with an anticipated negative revenue impact of around 6% due to tariffs [6] - RH expects to generate free cash flow between $250 million and $350 million, indicating a positive outlook despite tariff challenges [6]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1984.700 -35.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1380.5 | +8.20↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | 604.20 -26.20↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | | 383.10 | -63.50↓ | | EC合约基差 | +16.80↑ | -361.89 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 45012 409↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 162 ...