消息上，周二，在美国总统特朗普接受采访后，黄金拉升近30美元，一度冲上3380美元关口上方。长期 以来，黄金被视为政治和经济不确定时期的避风港，在低利率环境下通常表现良好。 港股黄金股普遍上涨，其中，中国黄金国际、招金矿业、山东黄金均涨超3%，潼关黄金涨2%，灵宝黄 金涨1.6%，紫金矿业、赤峰黄金跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 71.300 | 3.48% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | 21.640 | 3.05% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 28.000 | 3.09% | | 00340 | 滝关黄金 | 1.950 | 2.09% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 10.830 | 1.59% | | 02899 | 三十四年薪 | 22.220 | 0.91% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 25.200 | 0.16% | 由于贸易战和地缘政治冲突不断升级，以及央行的买入和对降息的押注，金价今年上涨了近30%。投资 者和分析师预计金价还会进一步上涨，富达 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Fed may cut interest rates more than twice with a magnitude greater than 50bp, and the probability of stagflation in the US is increasing. Short - term, the market rebounds, and long - term, strategic allocation of gold is recommended [1]. - For silver, the future US interest rate cut expectations and treasury bond issuance support commodities. Its fundamentals change little, with strong industrial demand and limited supply increase, so it has a long - term upward trend [1]. - For copper, due to weak US economic data and increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a large increase in LME copper inventory, short - term, wait for a full correction to try long, and long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1]. - For zinc, with loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, and over - expected zinc ingot production in July, along with a demand off - season, short - term, hold previous short positions and take partial profits, and long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices [1]. - For lead, with new production capacity coming online, enterprises resuming production, and relatively high social inventory, the lead price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For tin, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar and inventory accumulation during the consumption off - season, the tin price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For aluminum, with high - level overseas imported bauxite, inventory accumulation, and weak downstream processing industry, the aluminum price continues to be under pressure [1]. - For nickel, with weak overseas nickel ore prices, slow - down of stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation, the nickel price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For industrial silicon, supply is increasing, demand is stable overall, and it is short - term strengthened by sentiment [1]. - For polysilicon, the "sales price not lower than cost" supports the market, but the expected resumption of production in August may increase the surplus, facing pressure near the previous high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, total inventory has decreased after 8 weeks of accumulation, and there is an upward driving force for the price under the expectation of inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review US data is weak, interest rate cut expectations rise, trade wars are repeated, and the Fed's objectivity is questioned, leading to a rise in the gold price [2]. Basic Logic Trump criticizes Powell for late interest rate cuts, there are uncertainties in the EU - US trade agreement, US data is below expectations, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is high, with a possible 50 - basis - point cut if data worsens. Short - term tariff risks subside, but long - term, the debt issuance process accelerates, central banks buy gold, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing remains unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains [3]. Strategy Recommendation The gold price rebounds, with clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver fluctuates and rebounds in the short - term, with a trading range of 9000 - 9300. Both fundamental logic and market trends support long - term long positions [4]. Copper Market Review The Shanghai copper price tests the 78,000 - yuan mark again [7]. Industry Logic Recently, there have been continuous disturbances in copper concentrate supply, and the processing fee TC is - 42.5 dollars/ton. There is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In July, the domestic copper smelting start - up rate was 88.19%, and the electrolytic copper output increased significantly. Short - term, domestic spot circulation is tight, but consumption is in the off - season and downstream demand is weak. After the US copper product tariff is implemented, domestic copper export demand will be under pressure, and the back - flow of COMEX copper inventory to LME's US warehouses has led to a large increase in LME copper inventory [7]. Strategy Recommendation Due to weak US economic data, increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a 14,000 - ton increase in LME copper inventory, the London copper price weakens and drives the Shanghai copper price down. Short - term, wait for copper to fully correct and try long near 77,500. Long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and copper is a strategic resource, so it is long - term bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [77,000, 79,000], and the London copper price in the range of [9550, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates at a low level [10]. Industry Logic In 2025, zinc ore supply is loose. In July, the domestic refined zinc output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to continue to increase in August. Zinc ore processing fees are rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is high. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, floods, and the traditional consumption off - season, enterprise start - up rates are weak [10]. Strategy Recommendation With loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, over - expected refined zinc production in July, and a demand off - season, hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [21,800, 22,600], and the London zinc price in the range of [2650, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review The aluminum price is under pressure, and the alumina price rebounds and then falls [13]. Industry Logic For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment eases. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate decreased, and the demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, the import volume is high, the port inventory increases, the domestic production capacity is approaching 9000 tons, and the supply - demand is in a loose pattern. The electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory accumulates again [14]. Strategy Recommendation Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of [20,000 - 20,700] [15]. Nickel Market Review The nickel price has weak rebounds, and the stainless steel price faces pressure when rebounding [17]. Industry Logic Overseas, the macro - environment eases. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines continues to decline, NPI smelters face cost inversion and losses, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation improves limitedly, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production cut intensity weakens, and inventory pressure reappears in the off - season. Although the overall inventory has decreased, the terminal consumption is in the off - season, and there is still a supply - demand surplus [18]. Strategy Recommendation Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream inventory changes, and the main nickel contract is expected to operate in the range of [118,000 - 121,000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review The main contract LC2511 increases in position and decreases in price, completing the contract change, with a decline of more than 2% [21]. Industry Logic The fundamentals improve marginally. The total inventory stops accumulating after 8 weeks, and the inventory starts to transfer from upstream to intermediate links due to the resonance rise of futures and spot prices. Domestic production decreases after 9 weeks of increase. In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles declines year - on - year, and only the energy - storage market has some growth. The compliance risk of lithium mine mining licenses in Jiangxi becomes the focus of the lithium carbonate game, and the renewal of leading enterprises' mining licenses will have a great impact on the market. In August, the production plan of cathode material factories increases, and the supply - demand situation may improve [22]. Strategy Recommendation There is still speculation about supply, so try long on dips in the range of [66,500 - 70,500] [23].

特朗普这下又踢到"钢板"了。 别看他这次放出的关税政策这么吓人，但其实输的彻底。 被征收50%关税的巴西根本不怕他，因为中国给巴西"兜底"来了， 巴西直接对美国撂下两句狠话。 特朗普打出的，不只是贸易战，而是"选边战" 这轮关税，是所谓"对等关税2.0"。 特朗普政府7月31日签署行政令， 调整对多个贸易伙伴征收的所谓 "对等关税" 税率，其中的确有针对巴西等十多个国家的加税安排。 美国要对巴西出口商品加征高达50%的惩罚性关税这个决定已经是板上钉钉的事儿，部分巴西产品将在8月6号被正式征税。 这场关税风暴， 原本被认为是特朗普再次施展"极限施压"的典型手段。 但结果并没有"如特朗普所愿"。 数小时前中国驻巴西大使馆宣布—— 批准183家巴西咖啡企业对华出口。 但是， 此前特朗普 7 月 30 日签署的行政令中对巴西加征 40% 额外关税，再加上这次的10%，叠加之后，大部分巴西输美商品面临的关税税率将达到 50%。 本来根据行政令是 叙利亚被征收的 "对等关税" 税率最高，为 41%； 另一方面，特朗普想要缩小对巴贸易逆差。 数据显示2024年巴西对美出口409亿美元，巴西农产品出口强劲，其咖啡豆和牛肉出口 ...

Group 1: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The Trump administration plans to impose a 15% tariff on various European goods, including automobiles and wine, reminiscent of historical trade agreements like the Treaty of Nanking [1][2] - The EU has made a significant economic commitment of $1.35 trillion to the US, which is seen as a modern equivalent of historical reparations [1] - The EU's economic reliance on the US is highlighted by the fact that major German automotive companies like Volkswagen and BMW depend heavily on the US market for profits [2] Group 2: Industrial and Technological Challenges - The semiconductor supply chain is under strain, with TSMC halting supplies to European car manufacturers, leading to production line shutdowns [5] - The EU's dependency on US technology is evident, as 90% of high-end lithography machines are controlled by ASML, a Dutch company with significant US ownership [5] - European military capabilities are compromised due to reliance on US technology, with 78% of critical weapon systems needing US support [7] Group 3: Energy Crisis and Market Dynamics - The energy crisis in Europe is exacerbated by the US increasing LNG prices fourfold, leading to soaring energy bills for German households [8] - The EU is forced to restart coal plants to cope with energy shortages, drawing criticism from environmental activists [8] - The EU's energy procurement strategy has led to significant financial outflows to the US, impacting local economies [4] Group 4: Shifts in Manufacturing and Labor - European companies are relocating jobs to the US due to more favorable subsidy conditions, with Siemens planning to move 9,000 jobs [12] - Chinese companies are increasingly filling market gaps in Eastern Europe, with SAIC planning to build a major battery factory in Hungary [11] - The industrial landscape in Europe is shifting, with a decline in traditional manufacturing and an increase in reliance on Chinese production capabilities [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the severe debt crisis in the United States, highlighting that the national debt has reached an alarming $36.2 trillion, which is equivalent to the GDP of several developed countries combined [1] - The annual interest payments on this debt account for 17% of the total government spending, indicating a significant financial burden [1] - The rapid increase in debt, from $33 trillion at the end of 2024 to a projected $38 trillion by 2026, raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Government Measures - The Trump administration attempted to address the debt crisis through various measures, including the establishment of the "Government Efficiency Committee" aimed at reducing government spending, but these efforts were largely ineffective due to entrenched interests and public backlash [3] - The administration's second strategy involved imposing tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, which backfired as it led to increased trade tensions and rising domestic prices without reducing the trade deficit [5] - The third approach involved pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce borrowing costs, but this met resistance due to potential impacts on the Fed's profitability and political backlash [6][7] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The failure of these strategies has led to a vicious cycle where the U.S. government is trapped in a situation of increasing debt and interest payments, with no effective means to cut spending or increase revenue [9] - The article notes that other countries, particularly China, have begun to reduce their holdings of U.S. debt, which could undermine confidence in the dollar and exacerbate the crisis [9] - The overall sentiment is that the U.S. is facing a critical juncture, with the current debt levels posing a significant threat to economic stability and future growth [11][13]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged nearly $30, surpassing the $3380 mark following President Trump's interview [1] - Traders are increasingly pricing in a 93% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with expectations for at least two 25 basis point cuts this year [3] - UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo indicated that gold prices are likely to rise, especially if U.S. economic data weakens further [3] Group 2 - Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during periods of political and economic uncertainty, performing well in low interest rate environments [4] - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with Fidelity International predicting prices could reach $4000 per ounce by the end of next year [4] - OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong noted that without clear catalysts, traders may not push gold significantly above $3450 [4]

鲍威尔（资料图） 为解决赤字问题，特朗普将目光投向外贸，尤其对中国发起大规模关税战。2025年4月起，宣布对几乎 所有进口商品征收10%基准关税，对中国商品更是多次加税。4月2日开始，对中国额外加征10%关税， 5月再加20%，主要针对"芬太尼"等敏感商品，对高科技芯片关税甚至一度预告高达70%。 然而，中国迅速且强硬地反击，商务部列出清单回敬，扩大对美农产品和工业品的加税，供应链也向东 南亚转移。中国企业坚决抵抗单方加税，毫不退缩。不仅如此，欧盟、日本等盟友也未完全配合特朗普 的关税政策，越南等新兴市场国家则持观望态度，试图吸纳东移的产业链。 尽管特朗普多次加码关税，但最终效果不佳。5月，他不得不宣布移除部分关税，寻求退路。贸易逆差 依旧居高不下，美国出口商和农场主库存积压严重，焦虑蔓延。到了7月，中国明确表态准备打持久 战，特朗普的关税战术彻底失效，贸易战陷入僵局。 据环球网报道，当地时间8月1日，特朗普发文指责美联储主席鲍威尔，若不降息，美联储理事会应接管 控制权，美债与经济问题再成焦点。 截至2025年7月，美国国债总额已突破36万亿美元，这一数字相当于多个世界大国GDP总和。美国财政 部数据显示，公 ...

2025年7月31日，美国总统特朗普再次对全球贸易发起了冲击。这一次，他的动作比预期更为突然，原定 于8月1日生效的全球新关税政策，特朗普决定将其推迟至8月7日实施。表面上看，这似乎是一种暂时的缓 和，但实际上却充满了深层次的战略博弈。 这一系列的举措看似强势，但实际上透露出了两个重要信号。特朗普通过这些措施，企图在全球范围内获 得更大的谈判筹码，同时也在展示美国作为全球经济强国的主导权。然而，这种强硬的做法也引发了巨大 的争议。 02 三重打击，特朗普喜悦未尽便破功 01 关税升级，前所未有 特朗普此次签署的行政命令被许多人视为"世纪加税"。新政策要求对来自67个国家和地区的商品加征从 10%到41%不等的高额关税，堪称美国历史上最具规模的税率提升。根据新规，不同国家的税率差异较 大：日本、韩国、新西兰等国的税率为15%，而加拿大则被加征至35%，叙利亚则被加上了最高的41%的 税率。欧盟内部的关税则根据现有标准灵活调整，越南被设定为20%，而英国和巴西则维持在10%这一标 准。令全球惊讶的是，如果企业被发现通过"第三国转运"逃避关税，将会被加收40%的转运税，且这些企 业的名字将被公开，列入"规避名单"。 ...

Group 1 - The average effective tariff rate for American consumers is projected to reach 18.3%, the highest level since 1934 [1] - By 2025, tariffs are expected to increase average household spending by $2,400, disproportionately affecting the clothing industry [1] - Short-term price increases are anticipated, with shoe prices rising by 40% and clothing prices by 38% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. GDP is projected to decline by 0.36% due to tariff policies, equating to a loss of $108.2 billion, or $861 per household annually [2] - Foreign manufacturers may lower prices, but these reductions will only partially offset tariff costs, leading to higher prices for U.S. consumers [2] - Increased costs for businesses purchasing components and raw materials will ultimately harm the U.S. economy [2] Group 3 - As U.S. warehouse inventories deplete, the future economic landscape may face significant challenges [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the expansion of tariffs by Trump, which will not apply to goods shipped to the U.S. before a specific deadline, indicating a strategic approach to trade negotiations [2][3] - The new tariffs are expected to raise the average tariff rate in the U.S. to 15.2%, up from 13.3%, and significantly higher than the 2.3% rate before Trump's presidency [3] - The tariffs are part of Trump's broader strategy to reduce trade deficits and encourage domestic manufacturing, with ongoing negotiations with countries like Switzerland and India to potentially lower these tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Trump is expected to announce separate tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals in the coming weeks, creating ongoing uncertainty for businesses and investors [4] - The economic impact of the tariffs is becoming clearer, with key economic indicators showing deterioration, leading to concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses, and potential inflation [5][6] - Manufacturing jobs have decreased by 37,000 since April, highlighting the negative impact of tariffs on raw material costs for U.S. factories [6] Group 3 - The recent economic data suggests that while GDP growth appears to accelerate, it is largely due to fluctuations in imports caused by tariffs, masking underlying slowdowns in business investment and consumer spending [5][6] - The political narrative around the tariffs is shifting towards a "data war," as the administration faces scrutiny over the accuracy and reliability of economic statistics [7][9] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic slowdowns potentially exacerbated by tariffs, raising questions about the politicization of economic data collection [8][9]