市场持这一观点的核心原因，是预期美国经济的强劲表现将再度推升物价；尤其是若美国总统唐纳德・ 特朗普于上周五提名的下一任美联储主席凯文・沃什，带领政策制定者实施更快、更大幅度的降息，通 胀上行压力将进一步加大。 从全球范围来看，大宗商品价格上涨、各国政府大举发债以及人工智能领域的投资热潮，均在加剧这一 压力。年初以来，随油价上涨，市场通胀指标同步走高大宗商品价格上涨持续推升通胀压力。 瑞银集团高级交易员本・皮尔森指出，由美国主导的 "通胀型繁荣"，是今年被投资者严重低估的最大 风险。 贝莱德、桥水联合基金和太平洋投资管理公司的基金经理正调整投资组合，应对新一轮通胀来袭。 贝莱德旗下某基金正做空美国国债和英国金边债券，以防降息预期落空。桥水联合基金更青睐股票而非 债券，太平洋投资管理公司则看好收益率内嵌通胀调整机制的美国国债所提供的缓冲保护。 有越来越多的迹象印证了他们的担忧并非杞人忧天：1 月，普通美国国债与通胀保值债券的收益率利差 大幅飙升至数月以来的最高水平，另一项反映市场预期的指标 —— 通胀互换合约价格也出现上涨。 皮尔森称，若这一情景成为现实，美联储将在今年上半年 "完全按兵不动"，并迫使市场为下半年 ...

一方面，短期推升通胀的因素难以避免。数据显示，2026年1月1日至12日当周，俄CPI累计上升 1.26%，截至1月12日年度通胀率为6.27%，较上月出现反弹。市场分析认为，超过一半的涨幅受消费篮 子中波动较大且受调控的商品与服务推动，包括水果、蔬菜、酒类、汽车、住房与公用事业费用、交通 运输、燃油以及旅游服务等。 另一方面，俄央行还将面对更深层次的通胀压力。有专家指出，2025年下半年出现的价格增速放缓趋势 可能难以持续。增值税上调、小企业税制改革以及预期的关税上涨，均可能成为推动通胀走强的重要因 素。市场预计，增值税调整将在今年上半年进一步推高物价，但到下半年，高通胀问题有望缓解，货币 政策可能相应放宽。 在此背景下，有专家提示需警惕潜在的滞胀风险。俄罗斯科学院经济研究所首席研究员伊戈尔·尼古拉 耶夫表示，2026年，俄主要经济威胁来自滞胀风险，而应对滞胀十分困难。刺激经济增长的措施通常会 推高通胀，而抑制通胀的政策又可能拖累经济复苏。他指出，目前通胀"虽尚未构成危机，但很可能演 变为危机"。 因此，俄罗斯工业家和企业家联盟主席亚历山大·绍欣呼吁，应扭转经济持续降温的局面，推动经济走 向可持续增长。绍欣 ...

1 月 30 号，全球贵金属市场经历了一场史诗级的暴跌。 创下了1980年以来单日最大跌幅。 很多人问，贵金属的价格还有可能回暖么？ 赌徒心态的基本盘 回答这个问题，我们先说说美元为什么一路狂飙。 黄金从2025年初的2600美元左右， 一路冲到1月29日的高点5600美元。 白银更夸张，从30美元附近飙到114美元以上。 这些都让投资者把贵金属当成避险神器。 很多人觉得，美元会继续贬值，黄金白银才是硬通货。 但是涨得越高，风险其实越大。 | en Appeal Tether's Metal Hoard 'Debasement' Trade Gold Versus Bitcoin How to | | --- | 底层逻辑一点也不复杂： 说白了，大家对美元失去了信心。 通胀压力、地缘争议乱局、央行大印钞票... 相对强弱指数RSI，黄金一度冲到90以上。 这在历史上极其罕见， 意味着黄金已经严重超买，随时可能暴雷。 但是大家都心里嘀咕：这行情还能撑多久？ 许多人在赌。 可是市场巨变的时候根本不会给你喘息的机会。 咱们先来复盘一下那个疯狂的周五。 在那天的交易里，黄金一度下跌超过12%。 直接跌破了每盎司500 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of January, industrial production remained stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, construction sites gradually shut down, leading to weak performance in the volume and price of investment products [33]. - In terms of inflation, the food price index continued to rise, but the increase in pork prices narrowed month - on - month [33]. - In terms of exports, the demand for ocean routes was weak, and the month - on - month decline in market container shipping prices widened [33]. - In terms of investment, the PMI of the construction industry dropped significantly in January, indicating that construction projects were gradually shutting down and workers were returning home for the Spring Festival. The asphalt production started to decline seasonally, and traditional off - season factors had a dominant impact on the volume and price of investment products before the Spring Festival [33]. - In the real estate sector, new home sales remained relatively low year - on - year, second - hand home sales slowed down slightly but remained at a high level. The listing price in January turned positive month - on - month, indicating an early start of the "spring market" with signs of stabilization in both volume and price. Attention should be paid to the rebound slope of trading volume and the sustainability of price recovery after the Spring Festival [33]. - For the bond market, with the data "blank period" in February and the approaching Spring Festival, the suppression of pre - holiday data on bond market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex - factory price in the PMI continued to rise and returned to the expansion range. The month - on - month recovery of PPI in January is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of structural price improvement on bond market sentiment. On the other hand, due to the Spring Festival date shift, the year - on - year CPI reading may decline; regulatory authorities advocate weakening the scale of credit issuance, so the "good start" of credit in January may be mediocre; the second - hand home sales have started to slow down seasonally recently, and the impact of real estate fundamental factors is expected to decrease compared with January. The short - term impact of fundamentals on bond market expectations is reduced, and attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of pre - holiday allocation funds [33]. Summary by Directory I. Weekly High - Frequency Tracking: Economic Momentum Gradually Cools Down Before the Festival (1) Inflation - related: Food Price Increase Narrows - The increase in pork prices narrowed. From January 24th to January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork in China increased by 0.89% week - on - week, with a narrowing increase [8]. - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.38% and 0.45% week - on - week respectively, with narrowing increases [8]. (2) Import and Export - related: Container Shipping Prices Accelerate Weakening - The comprehensive container shipping index continued to weaken. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 9.7% week - on - week, with an expanding decline [11]. - From January 19th to January 25th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 4.35% and 1.70% respectively compared with the previous week before the festival, and increased by 9.6% and 6.9% year - on - year respectively [11]. - The increases of the BDI and CDFI indexes expanded. The pre - holiday transportation demand in the international dry bulk shipping market improved, and the market sentiment was positive. The Far - East dry bulk freight index rose [11]. (3) Industry - related: Pre - holiday Production Continues to Slow Down - Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.2% week - on - week, compared with a 1.7% decrease the previous week [15]. - The price of rebar slightly declined. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, compared with a 0.69% decrease the previous week [15]. - The asphalt production rate accelerated its decline. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, and increased by 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - Copper prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market increased by 1.9% week - on - week [18]. - The glass futures stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of glass remained stable, and the overall trading situation was slightly weaker than before. The downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Affected by weather factors, there were differences in production and sales between regions, and the industry inventory increased slightly [18]. (4) Investment - related: Second - hand Home Sales Decline Slightly - The decline in cement prices widened. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week, with an expanding decline [22]. - New home sales increased slightly. From January 23rd to January 29th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.328 million square meters, an increase of 14.1% week - on - week and 94% year - on - year. The high year - on - year increase was due to the Spring Festival date shift, and there was a slight end - of - month rush in terms of the week - on - week comparison [23]. - Second - hand home sales cooled down. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand homes decreased by 9.4% week - on - week, ending the continuous upward trend. However, it remained at a high level overall. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, second - hand home sales entered a seasonally low stage. In terms of price, the monthly listing price index of second - hand homes increased by 0.1% month - on - month in January, the first positive increase since January 2025. Attention should be paid to the volume and price performance after the Spring Festival [23]. (5) Consumption: Crude Oil Prices Rise Strongly - The increase in oil prices expanded. As of January 30th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 7.3% and 6.8% respectively week - on - week, with an expanding increase. Tensions in the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may lead to a decrease in crude oil production. Coupled with the reduction of US crude oil inventories and the decline of the US dollar index, oil prices were jointly pushed up [24].

在经历了此前的一轮强势上涨后，国际黄金和白银价格1月30日继续大幅下跌，均创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 美东时间1月30日下午，纽约商品交易所4月黄金期价一度跌破每盎司4800美元关口，跌幅超过10%；3月白银期价一度跌破每盎司80美元关口，跌幅超过 30%。 多重因素引发国际贵金属价格创纪录暴跌 新华社消息，市场分析认为，美国总统特朗普30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧此次贵金属价格大跌。沃什曾公开 批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。 美国劳工部30日公布2025年12月份和全年核心生产者价格指数（PPI）均高于经济学家此前预期，显示通胀逐渐融入整体经济。生产者价格上涨可能迫使 美联储维持"中性"货币政策的时间长于预期，利空金价。 分析人士认为，经历近一个月来金银价格暴涨，此次市场抛售在所难免。总部位于伦敦的布里坦尼亚全球市场公司资产经纪公司分析师表示，考虑到1月 份贵金属上涨的速度和幅度，此次回调并不出乎意料。 英国研究机构金属聚焦公司分析师认为，近来贵金属上涨行情呈现非理性，但鉴于投资者面临持续的地缘政治风险和经济不确定性，市场抛售或 ...

Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with prices plunging nearly $500 from a peak of $5,596 to around $5,100 before rebounding above $5,300, indicating extreme volatility and investor anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but Chairman Powell's comments sparked a significant market reaction, with gold prices surpassing $5,500 and silver reaching $119, reflecting a disconnect between market sentiment and Fed communication [3][4] - Geopolitical risks have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, contributing to a 25% increase in gold prices and over 55% for silver in the past year, indicating a shift beyond typical commodity bull markets [6] Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership by May 2026, with expectations that a more dovish successor could drive further investment in precious metals [4] - Current market conditions suggest that gold is becoming a key asset in portfolios, potentially replacing traditional bonds as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with projections indicating that a rise in gold allocation could push prices to $8,000-$8,500 [7] Price Predictions - Major financial institutions like UBS have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to $6,200, with bullish scenarios suggesting prices could reach $7,200, further fueling market optimism [9] - However, analysts warn of market instability, citing extreme price fluctuations and the potential for a significant correction due to overcrowded positions among momentum traders [9][11] Technical Observations - The recent flash crash highlighted the market's fragility, as trading platforms experienced outages due to overwhelming order volumes during price swings, underscoring the concentrated nature of market participation [11] - The copper market shows contrasting dynamics, with strong demand driven by energy transition and electric vehicle adoption, yet high inventories challenge the bullish narrative [12] - In the aluminum market, supply constraints from China's production limits and shifting demand towards green technologies suggest a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term price sustainability remains debated [13] Overall Market Sentiment - The current market environment is characterized by significant divergence, with bullish forecasts from major banks juxtaposed against warnings of excessive positioning and volatility risks [13] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain policy credibility have not fully reassured the market, and any new geopolitical developments could trigger rapid price movements [13]

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop on January 30, with gold prices falling below $4800 per ounce and silver prices dropping below $80 per ounce, marking the largest single-day declines in decades [1] - The decline in precious metal prices was attributed to multiple factors, including the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who has criticized quantitative easing policies, and higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicating rising inflation [1] - Analysts noted that the recent surge in gold and silver prices made a market correction inevitable, and while the sell-off was significant, ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties may prevent a prolonged downturn [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also adjusted in response to the falling gold prices, with brands like Chow Sang Sang reporting a decrease from 1708 RMB per gram to 1618 RMB per gram within two days [2][4] - Some gold brands have implemented return policies that include fees for returns, with reports of deductions up to 500 RMB for returns of gold products, reflecting the investment nature of gold [4][10] - Online platforms have varying return policies, with many not accepting returns for investment gold products and some charging a fee of 1%-5% for returns, which has led to consumer complaints about the lack of clear communication regarding these fees [6][8]

Global Capital Market Overview - The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has created volatility in the markets, with concerns about his hawkish stance affecting monetary policy expectations [1][2][9] - Economic resilience and persistent inflation have led to a challenging monetary policy environment, with the market pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 [1][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.26%, and the dollar index is currently at 97.1, indicating a marginal increase in yields and tightening liquidity expectations [1][9] Equity Market Performance - In the equity markets, South Korea and Argentina saw significant gains, while the A-share indices, including the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, also experienced increases [1][9] - Conversely, the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 saw declines, with Vietnam and Japan's markets experiencing larger drops [1][9] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices fell by 2.01% this week, while geopolitical risks led to a 7.32% increase in oil prices [1][9] - The current market for precious metals is in a phase of volatility reduction, with indicators suggesting that gold and silver prices may stabilize after recent declines [3][11] Global Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a trend of foreign capital inflows and domestic capital outflows from the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds seeing an inflow of $8.83 billion and passive funds $17.41 billion [4][9] - In total, foreign capital inflows amounted to $26.23 billion, while domestic capital outflows reached $600.12 billion [4][9] Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is below that of the KOSPI 200 and the S&P 500, with a PE ratio percentile of 92.9% over the past decade [5][10] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have improved, indicating better relative value in the Chinese stock market compared to global peers [6][10] Economic Data and Inflation Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data shows a marginal increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, while inflationary pressures remain stable in China [7][10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with oil prices potentially impacting inflation significantly if they rise to $80 per barrel in the second half of 2026 [17][10]

（央视财经《第一时间》）当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 现年55岁的凯文·沃什，职业生涯横跨美国华尔街、白宫与学术界。他早年曾在投行摩根士丹利的并购部门任职，2002年至2006年担任白宫国家经 济委员会执行秘书。2006年，年仅35岁的沃什被时任总统小布什任命为美联储理事，成为史上最年轻的理事之一。2008年金融危机期间，他的投 行背景使其成为时任美联储主席伯南克与华尔街沟通的关键纽带。在美联储任职期间，沃什以鹰派立场著称，在美联储2010年推出第二轮量化宽 松时，他对这一激进的货币政策持怀疑态度，因此投下反对票，之后从美联储辞职。 近几个月来，沃什公开支持降低借贷成本，与特朗普的立场保持一致。路透社报道称，他主张缩减美联储庞大的资产负债表，使其能够通过降低 央行的政策利率，将金融市场的过剩流动性"重新配置"到实体经济中。有经济学家在分析中指出，沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈 现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 美国Annex财富管理公司首席经济学家 布莱恩·雅各布森：我们确实知道历史上他更为鹰派，意味着非常专注于控制通胀。然而总统特朗普一直在 寻 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 沃什：全球"财政开源""脱虚向实"的选择 专题报告 相关报告 1、《把握金融周期的波动—— —构建招商中国金融条件指 数》2026-01-27 2、《国补"退坡如何影响通 胀？》2026-01-20 3、《2026 财年全球宽财政力度 有多大？》2026-01-16 宏观点评报告 ❑ 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期，特朗普政策超预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 特朗普为什么提名沃什？第一，特朗普与沃什家族关系较为密切，而沃什 本人与财政部长贝森特师从德鲁肯米勒，这样一来白宫、财政部、美联储 之间的沟通可能更为顺畅；第二，沃什在华尔街和公共政策方面资源和经 验都很丰富，且作为前美联储理事具有信誉，其注重美联储独立性和资产 负债表纪律的鹰派底色可以让市场更加安心；第三，特朗普本就认为目前 美联储体制存在诸多问题，沃什既有改革的决心也 ...