Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. Recent trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes are intertwined. The joint statement between China and the US to reduce reciprocal tariffs led to a strong market reaction, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price has fallen nearly 10%, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3,200. The market is also awaiting the US CPI data tonight [2] Group 3: Reasons for the Gold Price Decline - The weakening of the trade conflict has reduced the safe - haven value of gold. When the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff hikes last month, the gold price soared 8% in a single week to a record high of $3,500. Now, as the trade war eases, the over - reaction to the White House's policy has led to the gold price correction [3] - The resurgence of the US dollar has suppressed the gold price. The US dollar index soared 1.5% on the same day, breaking through the 101 mark and reaching a two - month high of 101.97, which has a double - edged impact on gold [3] - Capital has shifted to risk assets. The S&P 500 index soared 3.26%, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, and the VIX panic index fell below the 20 psychological threshold, indicating that funds are leaving defensive assets [3]

Economic Overview - The global stock market has shown a slight recovery from April 30 to May 11, 2025, with technology stocks leading the gains[6] - The U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have increased, while natural gas prices surged significantly, with Brent crude oil rising by 0.95%[9] - The market consensus indicates that trade negotiations are progressing positively, which has shaped the market rebound over the past month[6] Trade Negotiations - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs, with the overall tariff level on Chinese goods lowered to 30% (20% for fentanyl and 10% for general tariffs) and a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days[22][23] - The outcome of these negotiations is expected to continue influencing market trends and could enhance the current market rebound's scope and sustainability[25] Economic Risks - There are significant risks related to the economic fundamentals, including potential downward trends in U.S. growth and inflationary pressures due to tariffs[27] - The U.S. economy is facing downward growth risks, with factors such as tariffs, immigration policies, and government layoffs contributing negatively[27] - Inflation risks are anticipated to rise, with tariff impacts potentially delaying inflationary effects by about two months[27] Employment Data - In April 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly above the expected 138,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%[14] - Job growth was primarily driven by the service sector, while manufacturing and retail sectors showed declines[16] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a phase where it may revert to trading based on economic fundamentals rather than trade negotiations, as existing policies have observable impacts on the economy[26] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% reflects a cautious outlook on the economy amid ongoing trade tensions[19] Future Outlook - The timing and pace of any shift back to a fundamental trading paradigm remain uncertain, as the current environment is influenced by tariff negotiations and their implications for U.S. economic growth[28] - The U.S. must capitalize on the current risk window to finalize favorable trade outcomes and leverage opportunities for monetary policy easing[28]

ETO交易平台据悉，日本首相石破茂12日在谈及美国关税措施对日本汽车等产业的影响时表示，日方将采取"万全之策"应对美方关税，如有必要 将毫不犹豫采取额外措施。这一表态显示出日本在面对美国关税措施时的坚定立场和应对策略。石破茂强调，不能接受在不包含汽车领域的情况 下与美方达成协议，也不会为了汽车产业而牺牲农业、以扩大进口美国大米作为谈判筹码。这一立场不仅反映了日本在经济利益上的考量，也体 现了其在贸易谈判中的策略和底线。 日本的应对策略 坚持汽车领域的谈判 石破茂明确表示，不能接受在不包含汽车领域的情况下与美方达成协议。汽车产业是日本经济的重要支柱，对日本的经济增长和就业具有重大影 响。美国的关税措施对日本汽车出口构成了严重威胁，因此日本在谈判中坚持要求美方重新审视关税措施，特别是在汽车领域给予日本"特殊待 遇"。 保护农业利益 石破茂还强调，不会为了汽车产业而牺牲农业，以扩大进口美国大米作为谈判筹码。这一立场显示出日本在贸易谈判中的平衡策略，既要保护汽 车产业，也要维护农业利益。日本农业在国内经济中占有重要地位，特别是在一些地区，农业是主要的经济来源。因此，日本政府在谈判中需要 在汽车产业和农业之间找到平衡。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the settlement price of the June 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of the July 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [1] - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs [2] - Attention is paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian sanctions may ease, and oil exports will increase. Hamas has stated its readiness to participate in negotiations for a comprehensive and sustainable cease - fire agreement. There is also a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply resources, oil prices are running strongly. Currently, oil prices have formed a double bottom, attracting some buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited, mainly due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will still fluctuate greatly, mainly due to the uncertain policy adjustments of the Trump administration. Near the summer peak oil consumption season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, WTI June 2025 futures settled at $61.95/barrel, up 1.52%, trading between $61.02 - $63.61. Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.96/barrel, up 1.64%, trading between $63.88 - $66.4 [1] Trade Negotiations - Sino - US trade talks made progress, with both sides cancelling 91% of relevant tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs [2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran sanctions may ease, increasing oil exports. Hamas is ready for cease - fire talks, and there's potential progress in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening geopolitical impact on oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are strong due to trade optimism and supply concerns but have limited upward space due to OPEC+ output and Trump's policy. Second - quarter prices will be volatile, and there's a risk of decline near summer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, highlighted the "collective action problem" within the EU, which is hindering trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU, despite the expectation of a satisfactory conclusion in the future [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The "collective action problem" refers to the differing interests among EU member states, complicating negotiations [1] - Bessent noted that the trade talks with the EU will progress more slowly compared to negotiations with other countries [1] - The EU has a significant trade surplus with the U.S., amounting to $250 billion, despite ongoing tensions [1] Group 2: EU Internal Dynamics - Analysts suggest that Bessent's mention of the "collective action problem" may be an attempt to exploit divisions within the EU, although no significant rifts have been observed [2] - EU member states maintain a unified overall strategy, but there are specific disagreements on details, with some leaders establishing direct communication with Trump [2] - The European Central Bank President, Lagarde, emphasized the need for the EU Commission to lead trade negotiations [2] Group 3: EU's Proposed Cooperation - The EU has proposed cooperation options in key sectors such as liquefied natural gas, artificial intelligence, metals, automotive, semiconductors, and aviation [2] - The Trump administration has welcomed these proposals but has not clarified potential outcomes regarding existing tariffs [2] Group 4: Comparison with Asian Negotiations - In contrast, trade negotiations with Asian countries, including Japan and Indonesia, are progressing more smoothly, with recent announcements of temporary tariff reductions between the U.S. and China [3] - Bessent indicated that negotiations in the Asian market are relatively favorable compared to the prolonged discussions with the EU [3]

Core Viewpoint - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 4267.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.18% [1] Market Overview - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban has rejected the EU's plan to halt imports of Russian oil and gas [2] - As of May 12, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 6762 LPG futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 415 from the previous trading day [2] - The average domestic price of liquefied gas was 4918 yuan/ton, down by 16 yuan/ton [2] - Anticipation of increased market supply is expected as major refineries, including Jiujiang Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Beihai Refining, are set to complete maintenance [2] Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the recent decrease in LPG domestic production is below levels seen in the past two years, while port inventory levels have rebounded to high levels [3] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization rate has dropped to a one-year low, indicating weak profitability [3] - The reduction in import tariffs is expected to stimulate domestic stockpiling, with potential increases in supply from third-party imports to fill gaps in the U.S. market [3] - The demand outlook remains uncertain due to fluctuating trade negotiations, but the sharp change in tariff levels is likely to trigger significant overseas stockpiling demand, benefiting polypropylene, a major downstream product of LPG [3] Technical Analysis - The market is currently seeing a downward trend in LPG prices, with the main contract support at around 4290 and resistance at approximately 4500 [4] - Increased external supply from refineries and competitive shipping at ports are contributing to a downward shift in market price levels [4]

受到，周末传来的双方会谈消息利好，再叠加今天晚些时候会公布明细结果，今天A股高开高走，大家似乎此前对于能谈好的预期过低，导致今天资金有 点积极定价的意思。 其中，军工股表现依旧非常不错，这得益于印巴之间打算和谈，其中我方的武器出了大力气。另外，是此前受到关税影响的相关板块，今天都有补涨的动 作。 当然，一切的等待和做多，都是为了盘后3点公布的消息。具体内容，大家可以自行去商务部官网查看。 总结下来的意思，中方对美方的关税税率由此前的125%降低至10%，为期90天。而美方对中方的关税税率由145%降低至30%，很多人会说不是应该对等 的10%，你们不要忘了此前18年毛衣战的基础。 说实话，这份贸易谈判的结果肯定是超出市场预期的。因为此前市场并不认为能谈出什么结果，结果真出了结果，此前认为就算谈出什么结果，顶多会将 关税降低至50%左右，结果直接一步到位。 这充分的说明了，在贝森特占据川普政府关税谈判的主导地位之后，川普政府的策略发生了改变。因为关税战这件事的确是伤敌800，自损一千的行为。 欧洲股市，美股期货都在上涨。得益于世界上最大两个国家，关税谈判传出利好，大家对于毛衣战的避险情绪得以大大的缓解。黄金、日 ...

重点品种： 原油，黄金，股指 原油： 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识，国际油价继续上涨。中美经贸高层会 谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91% 的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91% 的反制关税；美方暂停实施 24% 的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24% 的反制关税。国际油价盘中 一度上涨 4% 左右，但是有关伊朗核计划以及俄乌冲突的谈判使得制裁最终被取消的可能性依然存在， 随后油价脱离当日高点，收盘时涨幅急剧缩窄。关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 黄金： 阶段性关税缓和利好兑现，金银回落。昨日随着中美发表中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，税率 暂缓和下调的幅度要好于市场整体期待，金银延续回调。上周美英达成所谓首个贸易协定，英国将对美 商品关税从 5.1% 降至 1.8% ，美国则维持对英进口商品 10% 的统一关税不变，最终细节将在接下来几 周内敲定。 5 月利率会议上美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔多次提及未来失业率和通胀的上升风险，表明 持续的观望态度，短期内美联储难有明确表态，当前关注重心在贸易谈判进展和新的经济数据表现之 上。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：各国与美国之间的贸易谈判在时间安排上存在自然的差异。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with major indices posting their best single-day performance in nearly a month, attributed to positive developments in international trade negotiations and reduced fears of a global economic recession [1][7]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1,160.72 points, or 2.81%, closing at 42,410.10 points [2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.26%, closing at 5,844.19 points, with a cumulative rebound of over 20% since mid-April [1][2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index showed the strongest performance, increasing by 4.35% to 18,708.34 points [1][2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks led the market rally, particularly those closely linked to global manufacturing and supply chains, with electric vehicle leaders rising nearly 7% [6] - A major consumer electronics company and an AI chip giant recorded gains of 6% and 5%, respectively [6] - Retail and hardware companies, reliant on overseas procurement and sales channels, also saw significant rebounds, with a major electronics retailer and a large PC manufacturer rising nearly 8% [6] Trade Negotiations Impact - The recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China resulted in a "temporary" reduction in tariffs, interpreted as a significant positive development for the market [5][12] - The U.S. committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China reciprocated with similar reductions [12] Economic Outlook - The progress in trade negotiations has significantly lowered recession expectations, prompting funds previously in risk-averse positions to flow back into risk assets [7] - U.S. Treasury yields rose as the market became less eager for short-term interest rate cuts [7] Investor Sentiment - The market's positive reaction was driven by tariff adjustments that exceeded market expectations, leading to a rapid recovery in risk appetite [6] - Defensive sectors, such as beverages, tobacco, and telecommunications, experienced declines as riskier assets gained favor [8] Future Considerations - Ongoing trade negotiations will remain a key variable influencing market dynamics in the coming weeks, with uncertainty still present regarding the durability of any agreements reached [8] - Analysts suggest that recent trade developments could provide support for mid-term market trends [8]