关于黄金和铜，黄金我自己不是很想忍受国庆节的不确定性，这年代持仓过节就等于没有过节。铜倒是 一个很烦的事情，它在一个旺季之前遇到了一个事件驱动，让逢低买的耐心问题变成了要不要追高的问 题。但对于拿着铜矿股的朋友来说，等于是一个意外之喜。这点可以之后再仔细讨论。 很多朋友都问过我为什么最近更关注地缘政治，我觉得每个时代都有每个时代的问题。用时代最新的工 具，解决时代最大的关注，我觉得总不会有错。所以地缘、商品、经济都是我喜欢研究的东西，但如果 说要做一番事业，那还是在政治和地缘上，比在商品和经济上上限更高。 一 祭祀，是内部的利益分配；战争，是外部的利益分配。所以无论是对于个人，对于公司，对于国家，最 重要的两个事情，确实就是祭祀和战争。 用身边的例子帮大家理解，比方说我自己以前还在公司工作的时候，只有两个会议是我打起一百二十分 精力参加的，一个是业务例会，一个是总结会议。第一个是赚钱的，第二个是分钱的。至于什么生日 会、读书会，或者晨会，我都是能逃就逃。到今天我还是这样觉得，我觉得一个公司只有两个事情值得 开会，一个是讨论怎么赚钱，一个是讨论怎么分钱...... 显然今天我们讨论的不是该怎么上班摸鱼，在我的地 ...

全球铀市场正经历一个关键转折点，供应削减、需求飙升和地缘政治紧张共同作用，可能使其成为核能 发展的瓶颈和地缘政治压力点。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通9月23日的最新报告揭示了一个日益紧张的市场现实：一边是核能复兴和 AI革命带来的爆炸性需求，另一边却是主要生产商的减产和地缘政治引发的供应瓶颈。 今年以来，铀的现货和期货价格已上涨约5%。价格上涨的背后，是全球主要生产商如Kazatomprom和 Cameco纷纷削减产量，而中国迅猛的核电建设与AI数据中心带来的巨大电力需求，正推动需求强劲增 长。 深层次的风险潜藏在核燃料供应链和地缘政治的风险中。报告强调，西方国家在铀浓缩服务方面严重依 赖俄罗斯，而美国旨在摆脱这种依赖的法案可能在2028年后造成严重的供应短缺。 供应缺口扩大，价格获强力支撑 此外，一个全新的需求驱动因素正在出现：人工智能和数据中心。这些高耗能产业正推动科技巨头转向 核能。报告提到，Meta已与星座能源公司（Constellation）签订了一份为期20年的虚拟电力购买协议 （PPA），而亚马逊则从Talon Energy锁定了近2吉瓦的核电供应，为其AWS数据中心供电。 "去俄化"与地缘政治 ...

Group 1 - The core of the article discusses the geopolitical tensions among China, the US, the EU, and Russia, highlighting a recent shift where Russia has shown willingness to cooperate with the US in the energy sector despite ongoing pressures from the US and EU on China [1][9]. - The US has been pressuring the EU to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially up to 100%, as a strategy to isolate China during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. - China's response to the US's tariff threats has been assertive, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasizing that such tariffs would harm all parties involved and warning of potential retaliatory measures, including restrictions on rare earth exports and tightening imports from the EU [3][4]. Group 2 - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU would make its own decisions regarding tariff policies, acknowledging the need to balance relations with the US and emerging economies like India [4][6]. - Despite US pressure, the EU has not fully aligned with the US's demands for tariffs on China and India, indicating a growing divergence in interests between the US and EU [6][10]. - The EU has been actively sanctioning Russia, with the latest round of sanctions also targeting Chinese entities involved in supporting Russia, reflecting a complex interplay of geopolitical interests [6][7]. Group 3 - Russia's recent overture to the US regarding energy cooperation, particularly with the Sakhalin-1 project, is seen as a strategic move to alleviate economic pressures from Western sanctions and to potentially create divisions within the Western alliance [9][10]. - The Sakhalin-1 project, which previously involved significant US investment, is now being reopened to foreign investors, including US companies, as a means for Russia to stabilize its economy amidst ongoing conflict [9][10]. - The article suggests that the US's dual approach of pressuring allies while seeking cooperation with Russia reflects a complex and often contradictory foreign policy stance [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment towards risk assets [2][6]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy is impacting gold prices, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment risks without providing clear guidance on interest rates [2]. - There is a division within the Federal Reserve, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee adopting a hawkish view against aggressive rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while San Francisco Fed President Daly supports further rate cuts to address economic slowdowns [2]. - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December, although internal divisions may create uncertainty around these predictions [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Recent geopolitical developments, such as Trump's proposed peace plan for Gaza and positive responses from Arab officials, signal a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The Ukraine crisis shows signs of diplomatic engagement, with U.S. and Russian foreign ministers reaffirming a commitment to peaceful resolutions, while trade agreements between the EU and the U.S. are expected to enhance predictability in transatlantic trade [5]. - The reduction in geopolitical tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as investors shift towards riskier assets, negatively impacting gold prices [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced a decline, with a significant drop to 3717, approaching the 5-day moving average support level, which is currently around 3735 [11]. - If gold prices break below the 3735 support level, the next target could be the previous low of 3717, and further declines may lead to a focus on the 10-day moving average near the 3700 mark [11]. - The recent price action indicates a clear adjustment pattern, with resistance levels identified at 3763 and 3775, while support levels are noted at 3735, 3717, 3700, and 3690 [12].

Core Viewpoint - Russia has extended an olive branch to the U.S. by expressing willingness to discuss energy cooperation, including the potential revival of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, amidst complex geopolitical dynamics involving the U.S., Europe, and China [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov has publicly stated readiness to discuss energy cooperation with the U.S., and President Putin has signed a decree allowing ExxonMobil to regain a 30% stake in the Sakhalin-1 project, which had been stalled since the Ukraine conflict [3]. - Energy exports account for over 40% of Russia's fiscal revenue, highlighting the critical need for foreign exchange as the country faces economic difficulties, with a projected GDP growth of only 1.5% by 2025 and a second-quarter growth rate of just 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Strategy - Russia's move to engage with the U.S. is seen as a strategic maneuver to create divisions within the U.S.-EU alliance, especially as the U.S. pushes for increased tariffs on China while potentially engaging in energy trade with Russia [5]. - The ongoing informal contacts between Russia and the U.S. may be a preparatory step for future relations, particularly if Trump were to return to the White House, which could lead to a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations [7]. Group 3: Implications for Global Energy Market - The U.S. is motivated to engage in energy cooperation with Russia to stabilize global energy markets and mitigate oil price volatility that could impact the U.S. economy, while also increasing its influence over Russia [13]. - The response from the EU will be crucial, as internal divisions may arise regarding acceptance of U.S.-Russia energy cooperation [14]. Group 4: China's Position - China maintains a strategic stance, continuing normal trade relations with Russia, unaffected by the U.S.-Russia rapprochement, and has become Russia's largest energy buyer, with trade expected to exceed $240 billion in 2024 [10]. - The dynamics of U.S.-Russia energy cooperation are unlikely to alter the fundamental strategic triangle involving China, the U.S., and Russia, as long as China continues to strengthen its position [16].

莫汉兴致颇浓地分享了他关注到的中企海外布局变化：其一，部分中企开始在欧洲本地设厂，既为当地 创造就业，也将生产直接融入欧洲供应链。同时，通过企业并购熟悉欧洲能源市场规则，实现多方共赢 的结果，有效化解部分争议。 其二，越来越多中企正主动融入当地社会。在英国曼彻斯特，中企深耕多年，推动成立了曼彻斯特中国 论坛。从技术合作到学生交流，从足球文化到项目投资，曼彻斯特与中国企业建立起了长期信任关系。 在希腊比雷埃夫斯港，中企赞助当地足球队，积极参与社区互动，与当地人一起过希腊节日和中国节 日。"人的主动融入最关键。"莫汉说，"无论在哪个国家，都要先懂当地文化，再谈合作。" 新华社伦敦9月24日电 记者手记丨这位英国学者谈"一带一路"，为何值得一听 新华社记者高文成 位于英国西北部兰卡斯特的兰卡斯特大学，今年第五次主办"一带一路"倡议跨学科会议。23日上午，记 者走进气氛热烈的会议现场，立刻被首位主旨发言嘉宾贾尔斯·莫汉所吸引。 莫汉是英国开放大学教授，深耕国际发展学领域多年，目前主持由欧洲研究理事会资助的项目"重新定 位发展：中国在欧洲基础设施投资的动力和影响"。欧洲研究理事会由欧盟设立，是欧洲顶尖的前沿研 究资助机 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu's response to the U.S. request for tariffs on China was a firm rejection, highlighting Japan's strategic balance in global trade and politics [1][3] - The U.S. has pressured G7, EU, and NATO members to impose tariffs of 50%-100% on China and India, citing their continued import of Russian oil as justification, but this approach lacks broad international support [3][4] - Japan's refusal to impose tariffs is rooted in its economic dependence on China, which is its largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expected to reach $380 billion in 2024 [3][4] Group 2 - Japan continues to import energy from Russia, with oil imports accounting for 1% and liquefied natural gas for 2.3% of total imports, making the U.S. request contradictory [4][6] - Japan's stance emphasizes the importance of WTO rules, as the proposed tariffs violate the most-favored-nation principle, reflecting Japan's commitment to maintaining a rules-based international trade order [4][9] - The rejection of U.S. tariff proposals is not an isolated incident, as other countries like the EU, South Korea, and Australia have also expressed reservations, indicating a decline in U.S. influence among allies [6][9] Group 3 - Japan's economic strategy prioritizes its own interests, balancing its security alliance with the U.S. while maintaining strong economic ties with China [7][9] - Kato's succinct response is seen as a diplomatic art, allowing Japan to assert its position without alienating either the U.S. or China, reflecting Japan's cautious approach in international relations [7][9] - Japan's refusal is viewed as a victory for multilateralism and rules-based trade, reinforcing the commitment to fair trade and economic cooperation in the context of globalization [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report doesn't provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "shock - weakening", with a few in "shock" status [3][6][8][11][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and the supply pressure on crude oil continues. The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the market is worried about Russia's crude oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the later period will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases [1][6]. - Most chemical trade data shows that imports of most varieties have declined year - on - year, while imports of methanol, PX, and pure benzene have increased. Exports of PVC, PE, PP, and styrene have performed well. The chemical chain valuation has been slightly compressed recently, and the rebound of crude oil may trigger the replenishment demand of the industrial chain, leading to the stabilization of chemical product prices [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the pattern of shock and consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation are still fermenting, supporting the bottom of the range. API data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases in the later period. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical disturbances [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has declined rapidly. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices but limited increase in asphalt futures prices and compressed profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has decreased rapidly, and the planned asphalt production in October has increased by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances drive the sharp rise of fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate due to factors such as the increase in import tariffs, weak gasoline in the US, and low refinery operating rates. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the pressure level of 3500 is effective in the short term. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates following crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The increase in external procurement in the inland area boosts the methanol futures price to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price fluctuated on September 23. The increase in the external procurement demand of some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has supported the price. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is still large in the near - term. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - term, some funds still bet at low prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock [21]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the futures price continues to be under pressure along the cost line. - **Main Logic**: On September 23, the daily production and operating rate on the supply side remained high, the demand side lacked strong support, and the export expectation was weakening. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of supply and demand remain loose. Before the festival, the demand is mainly for order collection, and the downstream transactions are moderately promoted. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for other positive factors [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream demand support is weak, and the supply - demand margin weakens. - **Main Logic**: The cost side has no obvious support, and the commodity atmosphere is not good. The overall supply remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the later period. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates weakly, looking for support at the lower level [15][16]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand margin weakens, the demand is lower than expected, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate at a low level, and the atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector is not good. The supply remains high, the downstream demand is still weak, and the processing fee is still under pressure. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The cost side fluctuates weakly, and the support is insufficient. The supply maintenance increases, but it still cannot effectively suppress market liquidity. The basis is still weak, and the processing fee has not improved significantly. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate and weaken, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply is stable, the downstream production and sales are tepid, and the processing fee is firm. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it fluctuates weakly in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The processing fee runs stably, and attention should be paid to contract negotiations. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials weakens, and the absolute price of bottle - chips fluctuates and declines. The processing fee is relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the speculative replenishment demand of downstream at low prices. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate increases, and PP should pay attention to the support strength at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of PP are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock - weakening [26][27]. 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following PP, and PL fluctuates and declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Traders in the market are generally bearish on the future market. Affected by the psychology of "buying on rising, not on falling", downstream pre - festival inventory - building willingness is general, and the market trading is dull. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates weakly in the short term [27]. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream transactions still increase, and plastic fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is limited, and it fluctuates in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The future market expectation is still pessimistic, and pure benzene returns to decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased, and downstream had certain replenishment demand. However, after the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. Pure benzene is difficult to destock before the end of the year, and the inventory accumulation is the most obvious in October. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the pattern of pure benzene will return to the situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation [13][14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and styrene resumes decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. After the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is the high inventory of upstream and downstream, which is difficult to destock. The cost side of pure benzene also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level, and one can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [14][15]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and PVC should be cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, but the dynamic cost has increased, and the market sentiment may recover. - **Outlook**: PVC fluctuates, with pressure from the medium - and long - term fundamentals and support from the increase in dynamic cost and the recovery of market sentiment [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The expectation is strong, but the reality is weak, and the market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of caustic soda still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The support comes from the strong expectation of caustic soda inventory - building for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates in the medium - and long - term. The spot price is weakly stable before the festival, and the market may rebound due to the strong inventory - building expectation for alumina production in Q4. If the inventory - building expectation is realized after the festival, the market may return to the weak reality [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and change values [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different categories are presented, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with the latest values and change values [34]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined on September 23, 2025, with declines of 0.73%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively [276]. - **Energy Index**: On September 23, 2025, the energy index was 1179.87, with a daily decline of 1.64%, a decline of 4.31% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.01% in the past month, and a decline of 3.91% since the beginning of the year [278].

在当今国际舞台上，欧盟与中国的关系正经历一场复杂而微妙的博弈。随着俄乌冲突的持续升温，欧盟似乎选择了更加激进的对抗策略，不只对俄罗斯施加 制裁，最近还将目光转向了中国。这一切无疑让人们对欧洲委员会主席冯德莱恩的动机和后果产生了深刻的思考。 当冯德莱恩宣布将12家中国企业列入制裁名单时，声称这是为了"阻止资金流入"俄罗斯以支持战争。这种表面上的理由，实则隐藏着更深层的地缘政治操 作。近年来，欧盟一直在努力平衡与美国的关系与自身的利益。尤其是在特朗普政府的高压政策下，欧盟不得不不断地试图迎合美国，而这次制裁行动显然 是对美国要求的一种回应。 然而，这种单方面的举动显得不够理智。当前，欧盟不仅仅依赖俄罗斯的能源供应，同样也离不开中国的稀土资源。数据显示，欧盟90%的稀土精炼能力都 依赖中国，尤其是在电动车产业链中，德国汽车制造商等巨头无法承受失去中国供应的后果。因此，将制裁目标瞄准中国，无异于是自掘坟墓。 面对欧盟的挑衅，中国政府迅速做出了反应。商务部明确表示，将采取必要措施维护中国企业和金融机构的合法权益。这种态度不仅展现了中国的坚定立 场，更传递出一个信息：任何针对中国的制裁都将遭遇反击。令人关注的是，早在欧盟 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and there will be a style switch and partial withdrawal in the short - term [3]. - There is no strong incremental negative news, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may reach a high in the range of 1.8 - 1.83%. Without strong positive news, the short - term downward space of the interest rate is limited, and there may be resistance around 1.75% [3]. - Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. However, with the approaching end of the month, the expiration of derivative contracts brings greater volatility risks [3]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate. The decline in iron ore shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand support the strong operation of iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of crude oil shows marginal increase concerns, and the future trend needs to pay attention to the evolution of geopolitical issues [3]. - The high supply pressure of urea continues, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs to be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: As the long holiday approaches, the capital market becomes less active. There will be a style switch in the short - term, with blue - chip indexes remaining firm. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The open - market operation turns to net withdrawal, weakening the bond market sentiment. The Treasury bond futures generally decline. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy, and try to go long with a light position when the market sentiment stabilizes at the low level, but pay attention to taking profits in time. For the basis - trading strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can participate in the basis narrowing strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by emergencies, but the sentiment fades quickly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to try short - term long positions on pullbacks and narrow the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures contracts for January [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand, iron ore prices are supported to run strongly. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the production area is stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by the downstream restocking demand, the futures market has an upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price cuts for coke is implemented, some coke enterprises start to raise prices, and the futures market has a rebound expectation in advance. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The market fluctuates and consolidates, and spot transactions are good below 80,000 yuan. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The price breaks below 2900 yuan, and the downward space is limited due to cost support. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price drops, and trading volume picks up slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday restocking demand provides short - term support for the spot price. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan [3]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory decreases during the peak season. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. The main contract is expected to trade between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [3]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore remains at a low level in August, and the fundamentals provide support. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [3]. - **Nickel**: The market maintains a weak shock, and the fundamentals change little. The main contract is expected to trade between 119,000 - 124,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market maintains a narrow - range shock. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of downstream enterprises. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the marginal increase in supply have eased. The future trend needs to pay attention to geopolitical issues. It is recommended to operate in a band for the unilateral strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. Wait for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [3]. - **Urea**: The high - supply pressure continues. Attention should be paid to the order - taking progress of urea factories before the National Day. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a short - term support level at 1610 - 1630 yuan/ton. On the option side, after the implied volatility rises, it is recommended to narrow the spread at high levels [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is positive, but the cost side is strong. PX may be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on the PX11 contract in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves, but it is still weak in the medium - term, with limited driving force. It is recommended to go long on TA in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short. Treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse spread [3]. - **Short - fiber**: There is no obvious driving force in the short - term, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan, with limited upward and downward driving forces [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The demand for bottle chips improves periodically, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upward space of the processing margin is limited. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The expectation of new device commissioning and the weak terminal market put pressure on MEG. It is recommended to sell call options on EG2601 - C - 4400 at high levels and use the EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: As the long holiday approaches, middle - stream enterprises adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the market drops significantly. Hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The enthusiasm for spot procurement is average, and the market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation weakens, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 will follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices in the short - term [3]. - **Styrene**: The oil price is expected to be weak, putting pressure on the absolute price of styrene. It is recommended to go short on the absolute price rebound of EB10 and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost and supply - demand driving forces of BR are limited, and it may follow the fluctuations of natural rubber and commodities. Pay attention to the support around 11,400 yuan for BR2511 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens, and the trading volume is fair. The upward and downward space is limited. Wait and see near the previous low [3]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance increases, and the trading volume improves. In the short - term, the high - maintenance situation continues, supply decreases, demand increases, and inventory decreases. Wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Methanol**: The inventory at the port continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. The downward space is currently limited. Wait and see [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: Argentina cancels the export tax, putting pressure on the two - meal market again. It will have a short - term weak adjustment [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure is large, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the National Day. Exit the reverse spread strategy and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: Under the bearish expectation, the market fluctuates weakly [3]. - **Oil**: Argentina cancels the grain export tax, causing the market to plunge. Pay attention to the support at 9000 yuan for the main contract of P in the short - term [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. Exit short positions and take profits [3]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing the supply pressure. Go short in the short - term [3]. - **Egg**: The domestic sales in some local markets still support the demand to a certain extent, but the long - term trend is bearish. Control the position of short positions [3]. - **Apple**: Early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is fair. The main contract is expected to trade around 8300 yuan [3]. - **Jujube**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures market fluctuates. It is bearish in the medium - and long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus situation is difficult to reverse, and the market of soda ash weakens. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales weaken, and the market drops. Wait and see [3]. - **Rubber**: Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price fluctuates strongly in the short - term. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment weakens, and the price of industrial silicon drops. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: Suppressed by fundamental sentiment, the price of polysilicon drops significantly. Wait and see for the time being [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The driving force weakens, and the market fluctuates mainly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].