Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The report indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade conflicts, potentially replacing tariffs as the primary means of trade engagement [1][9][10] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises believe that due to fundamental conflicts, the Sino-US trade negotiations may experience significant ups and downs, necessitating ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][9] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive goals, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to historical trade competition phases [1][9] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The report suggests that the RMB exchange rate may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation between 7.15 and 7.22 [11][12] - The ECI index indicates a slight recovery in supply and demand, but the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, reflecting weak overall economic momentum [13] - The report highlights that the US trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with April imports showing a historic decline of 19.8%, indicating a slowdown in the "import rush" effect driven by tariff policies [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income and Structured Financing - The report notes that the valuation of city investment ABS is less correlated with duration compared to credit bonds, suggesting that shorter-duration ABS may offer better risk-return profiles [3][4] - The weighted average coupon rate of city investment ABS is approximately 3.25%, which is lower than the overall market for credit bonds, indicating a favorable financing environment for structured products [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of the quality of underlying assets and the issuing entity's qualifications in determining the valuation of city investment ABS [4][18] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a strategic focus on ecosystem investment for sustainable growth [6] - Gilead Sciences' ASC40 acne treatment achieved all primary and secondary endpoints in Phase III trials, demonstrating superior efficacy compared to FDA-approved alternatives [7] - The report on SOTON Robotics indicates a significant drop in revenue for Q1 2025, but an increase in gross margin, suggesting potential for recovery through new product launches and market expansion [8]

特朗普一句"对欧盟征收 50% 关税"，全球股市应声暴跌：德国 DAX 指数单日重挫 1.54% ，道指跳水 0.61% ，避险资金疯狂涌入黄金，创六周新高。这场跨大西洋的贸易 战，正以惊人的速度重塑资本市场的逻辑链条。 新浪财经 APP 全球股指界面截图 01 贸易战引爆股市： 分化与恐慌成主线 欧美股指集体"失血" 5 月 23 日特朗普威胁加征 50% 关税后，欧洲股市首当其冲： 德国 DAX 指数暴跌 1.54% ：汽车股领跌，大众、宝马对美出口占比超 37% ，关税若落 地恐损失 2000 亿欧元产值； 美股科技股遭抛售：纳斯达克跌 0.35% ，苹果、特斯拉受冲击，特朗普同时威胁"对非美 国产 iPhone 加征 25% 关税"； 亚太市场逆势走强：印度 SENSEX30 涨超 3% ，中证 A500 指数韧性凸显，出海产业链 成避风港。 板块冰火两重天 留有余地：主动删除威士忌条款，避免矛盾激化。 千亿级"核选项"待发 汽车与科技双杀：欧盟对美 600 亿美元汽车出口面临瘫痪，德国汽车业 1380 万就业岗位 岌岌可危；美国科技巨头因欧盟数字税反制计划市值蒸发； 消费电子与新能源突围 ：通胀敏感 ...

首席点评： 夜盘焦煤领涨 国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平表示，中国人一向言必行、行必果，既然达成了 共识，双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后，中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实事求是看待取得的进展， 撤销对中国实施的消极举措。双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流，增进共识、减少误 解、加强合作。特朗普表示十分尊重习近平主席，美中关系十分重要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增 长。两国日内瓦经贸会谈很成功，达成了好的协议。美方愿同中方共同努力落实协议。欧洲央行将存款 机制利率下调 25 个基点至 2% ，符合市场预期，为连续第 7 次降息。欧洲央行还将主要再融资利率和 边际贷款利率分别从 2.4% 和 2.65% 下调至 2.15% 和 2.4% ，处于 2023 年初以来的最低水平。这是对通 胀放缓以及特朗普贸易战对欧元区经济增长威胁的回应。 重点品种： 煤焦，铝，贵金属 焦煤 / 焦炭：宏观刺激，多头增仓，盘面强势反弹，关注 800 压力。持有现货的产业客户可伺机介入卖 出套保操作。新版《矿产资源法》将于 2025 年 7 月 1 日正式施行的，环保标准更严格。受迎峰度夏补 库影响，短期动力煤现 ...

金十数据6月5日讯，机构分析指出，欧洲央行周四如期在一年时间内进行了第八次降息，存款利率从 2.25%降至2%，为该行认为既不抑制也不促进经济的"中性"水平的中间值。欧洲央行承认通胀得到控 制，并在与美国爆发贸易战的风险下，对欧元区经济前景变得更加悲观（将2026年GDP增长预测从 1.2%下调至1.1%）。欧洲央行对此后的会议保留了所有选择，尽管一些政策制定者和许多投资者预 计，在7月的下次会议上，欧洲央行将暂停降息。声明指出，"特别是在目前异常不确定的情况下，（欧 洲央行）将遵循一种依赖数据和逐次会议的方式。" 机构：贸易战风险下 欧洲央行对经济前景更为悲观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term. The core logic includes the recurrence of Trump's trade war, the remaining risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes, the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.23%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.01%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term risks include the recurrence of Trump's trade war, economic recession, and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's latest metal tariffs have come into effect, and EU and US representatives reported rapid progress in trade dialogues. [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that tariffs increase price pressure and US economic activity declines. The US labor market slows down, and the number of layoffs reaches the largest increase in nine months. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuate weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. The visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars. [8] - **Economic Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.55%, the US dollar index is 98.82, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.57. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%, and the PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.15%. [9][10] - **Other Data**: Include data on the US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as central bank gold reserves, gold/foreign exchange reserves, and various risk and commodity - related indices. [10][11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of different federal funds target rate ranges in each meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 according to the CME FedWatch tool. [13]

Currency Market Overview - The Euro is trading cautiously against the US Dollar, slightly above the key level of 1.1400 [1] - The British Pound has retreated to around 1.3550 due to a rise in the US Dollar [1] - The Japanese Yen remains under selling pressure, with the USD/JPY maintaining above the 143.00 mark [1] - The Australian Dollar has lost upward momentum after falling below 0.6500, influenced by mixed trade balance data and a decline in China's Caixin Services PMI [1] - The New Zealand Dollar has extended gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.6030 [1] - The USD/CAD continues a bearish consolidation trend, currently trading in the 1.3670-1.3665 range [1] Key Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment figures were significantly below expectations, marking the lowest level since March 2023 [2] - US President Trump and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency have called for an immediate interest rate cut by Fed Chair Powell [2] - The US Senate has confirmed Michelle Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve [2] - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted that the bond and stock markets are sending contrasting signals [2] - The Fed's Beige Book reported slight declines in economic activity across six regions, with businesses expecting future cost increases [2] Non-US Major Currencies - Sources indicate that the Bank of Japan is considering slowing down its bond purchase reduction next year [3] - Australian household spending indicators showed only slight growth, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate, with the Canadian Dollar reaching a new high for 2025, while the swap market anticipates a 46% probability of a rate cut in July [5] - The subscription ratio for Japan's 30-year government bond auction was 2.92, down from 3.07 in the previous auction [6] - The UK Office for National Statistics reported that errors in vehicle tax data led to a 10 basis point overestimation of inflation rates as of April [7] Other Economic Insights - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will continue to adopt a cautious approach in deciding on further monetary policy easing [8] - The IMF's First Deputy Managing Director stated that the impact of trade wars on emerging markets is more severe than during the pandemic [9] - Japanese media reported that the US has shown flexibility in reducing additional counterpart tariffs on Japan [10] - Sweden's core inflation has dropped to a five-month low, increasing expectations for interest rate cuts in June [11] - The National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to sell 3.3-3.6 trillion tenge by 2025 to reflect gold purchase volumes [12] Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.0817, indicating a sustained upward trend [13] - Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are at 1.1572, 1.1600, and 1.1692, while short-term support is at 1.1192 [13] - The GBP/USD is stable above its upward trend line, with initial resistance at 1.3550 and support levels at 1.3500, 1.3430, and 1.3380 [14] - For AUD/USD, a breakout above the 2025 high of 0.6537 could target the 2024 high of 0.6942, with initial support at 0.6356 [14] Upcoming Economic Data - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15 [14] - The US trade balance for April and initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 will be released at 20:30 [14] - ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference at 20:45 [14] - The US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May will be published at 22:00 [14] - EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending May 30 will be available at 22:30 [14] - Federal Reserve officials will be speaking on economic outlook and banking policies in the early hours of the next day [14]

Group 1 - China has tightened its grip on rare earth exports, which is critical for the U.S. military and technology sectors, despite recent agreements to lower tariffs and pause trade hostilities [1][3][10] - The U.S. initially believed that significant tariff concessions would lead China to ease restrictions on rare earth exports, but China did not comply, leaving the U.S. in a precarious position [5][15] - The U.S. defense sector relies heavily on rare earth elements, with 87% of the supply chain controlled by China, indicating that any disruption could severely impact over 1,000 weapon systems [10][11] Group 2 - The U.S. has responded aggressively with measures such as banning exports of engines to Chinese aircraft and imposing restrictions on technology companies, revealing a sense of strategic anxiety [12][13] - Major industries, including automotive and technology, are feeling the pressure from the lack of access to Chinese rare earth materials, leading to significant financial losses and operational challenges [14][17] - The ongoing conflict over rare earths highlights a critical truth: the global supply chain is not easily manipulated by the U.S., as key production capabilities are concentrated in China [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2508 closed down 0.11%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 2%. Shipping companies' price hikes slightly supported the futures price. Uncertainty in the trade war and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a cold demand outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line), with large price fluctuations. The long - term improvement of the trade war needs to be observed, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk Data - EC main contract closing price: 2146.300, down 2.4; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1356, down 13.3 - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: down 25.80; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 604.30, down 24.70 - EC contract basis: up 58.57, at - 893.48 - EC main contract open interest: 47254 lots, down 707 [1] Spot Price Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1252.82, up 5.77; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1718.11, down 1.68 - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): up 486.59; SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 2072.71, up 0.10 - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1117.61, up 10.21; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1375.62, down 16.99 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1489.00, down 59.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1145.00, down 37.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 8568.00, down 95.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20975.00, up 1211.00 [1] Industry News - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, with businesses and consumers facing rising policy uncertainty and price pressure. Some companies plan to raise prices in the next three months - US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than expected. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao attended the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting in Paris, emphasizing unity and using WTO rules to resolve trade disputes [1] Key Data to Focus On - June 6, 14:00: Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in April - June 6, 14:45: France's industrial output monthly rate in April - June 6, 17:00: Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revised value; Eurozone's retail sales monthly rate in April - June 6, 20:30: US unemployment rate in May; US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in May [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have reached a stalemate, with both sides unwilling to make significant concessions, leading to a potential escalation in bilateral relations [4][5][6] - Trump's administration is focused on high-level negotiations with China, but there is a fundamental disconnect in negotiation styles, making it difficult to reach an agreement [6][21] - China is signaling a shift towards strengthening trade relations with Europe, especially in light of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, indicating a strategic pivot in its trade policy [16][17] Summary by Sections - **Trade Negotiations**: Trump's desire for high-level talks contrasts with China's reluctance to engage without prior concessions, resulting in a deadlock [4][5][6] - **Economic Impact**: The trade war has led to supply chain disruptions, particularly in industries reliant on rare earth materials, with U.S. companies feeling the strain of tightened supplies [11][13] - **China's Strategy**: China is looking to diversify its trade relationships, particularly with Europe, as it navigates the complexities of U.S. trade policies [16][21] - **Historical Context**: The current trade dynamics are markedly different from previous negotiations, with China now better positioned to withstand U.S. pressures due to its diversified market strategies [21]