今年第一季度，随着家庭和企业寻求应对与关税相关的价格上涨，美国进口激增。创纪录的贸易逆差导 致GDP以0.5%的速度下降。第二季度数据失真得到了缓解，4-6月进口暴跌30.3%，导致贸易逆差减少， 对GDP增加了4.99个百分点。 占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在1月至3月放缓至0.5%后，以1.4%的速度增长。 在经历了三年来最差表现之后，美国经济在第二季度强劲复苏，国内生产总值GDP规模首次超过30万亿 美元。不过有分析认为，数字可能夸大了经济的健康状况，因为进口下降是增速改善的主要原因，显示 关键消费需求的指标正以两年半以来最慢的速度增长。随着企业和消费者努力应对持续的贸易战，经济 或将表现出疲软的迹象。 进口降温打压贸易逆差 根据美国经济分析局BEA周三发布的初步统计显示，美国第二季度GDP年化季率3%，这一结果大幅超 过了市场2.4%的增长预期，标志着自去年第三季度以来最强劲的增长速度。 "太晚了，必须降低利率。不要通货膨胀！让人们购买并再融资他们的房子！" 经济前景如何 随着特朗普在对等关税上立场有所松动，美国似乎已经度过了贸易战中最糟糕的部分。美国政府已经就 多项协议完成了谈判，并寻求在8月 ...

消费端隐患或已出现。 在经历了三年来最差表现之后，美国经济在第二季度强劲复苏，国内生产总值GDP规模首次超过30万亿 美元。不过有分析认为，数字可能夸大了经济的健康状况，因为进口下降是增速改善的主要原因，显示 关键消费需求的指标正以两年半以来最慢的速度增长。随着企业和消费者努力应对持续的贸易战，经济 或将表现出疲软的迹象。 进口降温打压贸易逆差 根据美国经济分析局BEA周三发布的初步统计显示，美国第二季度GDP年化季率3%，这一结果大幅超 过了市场2.4%的增长预期，标志着自去年第三季度以来最强劲的增长速度。 今年第一季度，随着家庭和企业寻求应对与关税相关的价格上涨，美国进口激增。创纪录的贸易逆差导 致GDP以0.5%的速度下降。第二季度数据失真得到了缓解，4-6月进口暴跌30.3%，导致贸易逆差减少， 对GDP增加了4.99个百分点。 占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在1月至3月放缓至0.5%后，以1.4%的速度增长。 值得注意的是，不包括贸易、库存和政府在内的私人国内销售（Private Domestic Sales），这一潜在经 济增长的晴雨表在第一季度以1.9%的速度增长后放缓至1.2%。这是自20 ...

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] - The central bank indicated that further rate cuts may occur if the economy weakens and inflation pressures remain controlled [1] - Core inflation has recently rebounded, but the central bank is uncertain about its sustainability [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada presented three economic scenarios regarding the US-Canada trade situation, predicting a growth rebound to 1% in the second half of the year if current tariff levels remain unchanged [2] - If the US reduces tariffs on non-USMCA goods and Canada reciprocates, it could further boost growth; conversely, an escalation in trade tensions could lead to economic contraction and increased inflation pressures [2] - The central bank forecasts a decline in the inflation rate from 2.3% to 1.9% by 2025, partly due to the federal government's cancellation of the carbon tax [2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on Canadian two-year government bonds fell to 2.773%, and the Canadian dollar initially dropped before recovering [1] - The market interpreted the central bank's statement and the governor's comments as dovish, suggesting a more accommodative future policy stance [1] - Analysts noted that while the central bank did not signal an imminent rate cut, the current policy language does not end the easing cycle [2]

大家，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息。 市场等待美联储 另一方面，巴克莱银行策略师Emmanuel Cau指出，美股反弹的动力主要来自散户交易者，而机构买盘则相对温和。散户交易量已处于 历史高位。该行认为，如果没有增长冲击，这种持仓结构可能推动股市在下半年进一步上涨。 7月30日晚间，美股涨跌不一。投资者迎来一系列关键经济数据和财报，同时市场正关注当天稍晚的美联储利率决议以及主席鲍威尔的 讲话。 标普500指数微涨0.05%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.23%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌46点。 在美联储公布利率决议前，投资者大多保持观望。根据芝商所（CME Group）的FedWatch工具，联邦基金利率期货显示，市场预计美 联储将把关键利率维持在4.25%至4.5%区间的概率接近98%。 公告定于美东时间下午2点发布。下午2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将在记者会上发表讲话，投资者将从中寻找货币政策走向的信号。 特朗普则试图向美联储施压，要求其降低借贷成本。 自4月低点以来，美股已大幅反弹。一些市场专业人士警告，这波涨势可能需要"喘口气"。 摩根大通资产管理公司全球首席策略师大卫·凯利在接受采访时表示："我认为，市场涨得 ...

【导读】 市场等待联储会议结果 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息。 市场等待美联储 7月30日晚间，美股涨跌不一。投资者迎来一系列关键经济数据和财报，同时市场 正关注当天稍晚的美联储利率决议以及 主席鲍威尔的讲话 。 标普500指数微涨0.05%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.23%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌46点。 在美联储公布利率决议前，投资者大多保持观望。根据芝商所（CME Group）的FedWatch工具，联邦基金利率期货显 示， 市场预计美联储将把关键利率维持在4.25%至4.5%区间的概率接近98%。 公告定于美东时间下午2点发布。下午2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将在记者会上发表讲话，投资者将从中寻找货币政策 走向的信号。 特朗普则试图向美联储施压，要求其降低借贷成本。 自4月低点以来，美股已大幅反弹。一些市场专业人士警告，这波涨势可能需要"喘口气"。 摩根大通资产管理公司全球首席策略师大卫·凯利在接受采访时表示： "我认为，市场涨得越高，越容易变得脆弱。" 根据本周三公布的初步政府数据，美国第二季度经济活动回升，缓解了外界对特朗普政府贸易战抑制经济增长的担忧。经 通胀调整的国内生 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, with the A-share financing ratio reaching 10%, indicating overheated speculative sentiment [5][20][24] - The U.S. stock market is projected to reach new highs as trade agreements with major economies are expected to boost risk appetite and profit expectations [26][28] - The report highlights that the bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, with a downward trend expected after recent gains [4][10][17] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report notes that sectors such as film and television, and oil and gas development are leading the market, while previously strong sectors like batteries and electronics are experiencing declines [21] - The commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.83%, although some commodities are experiencing price divergence [34][37] Group 3: Policy and Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing competition in key industries [9][38] - It mentions that the Central Political Bureau has set a dual expansion policy for fiscal and monetary measures to support economic recovery [38]

Core Viewpoint - The statement made by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick regarding Boeing's exemption from import tariffs reveals a significant disparity in the treatment of large corporations versus smaller businesses and consumers, highlighting structural issues within the U.S. economic system [1][3][9]. Group 1: Boeing's Tariff Exemption - Boeing imports key components worth over $12 billion annually from countries like Italy, Japan, and South Korea, yet it is exempt from paying any tariffs on these imports [3][5]. - The U.S. Commerce Department has effectively created a "green light" for Boeing, allowing it to operate without the burden of tariffs, while other companies are left to navigate the tax landscape on their own [3][5][9]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Smaller Businesses - Consumers purchasing imported goods are indirectly subsidizing Boeing's operations, as they bear the cost of tariffs that Boeing does not have to pay [5][11]. - The preferential treatment for Boeing raises questions about fairness in trade practices, especially when smaller businesses and taxpayers are left to shoulder the financial burden [9][11]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The situation illustrates a broader issue within the U.S. economic framework, where large corporations receive special privileges while the narrative of protecting American workers and industries is undermined [7][9]. - The existence of "white list" companies in various sectors, including chips and defense, suggests a systemic bias favoring large firms, which can distort market dynamics and limit opportunities for smaller enterprises [9][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility in gold prices driven by multiple factors, including trade negotiations, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4] - On July 29, gold prices rebounded, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce after a drop to $3302, indicating a rapid shift in market sentiment [1][2] - The recent agreement between the US and EU to impose a 15% tariff on EU goods has provided some certainty to global markets, while the extension of the tariff truce between the US and China has also influenced gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a significant factor affecting gold price fluctuations, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged during the upcoming meeting [4][6] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with a decrease in job openings and a rise in consumer confidence, contributing to the ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [4][6] - The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by President Trump's pressure on Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, which has heightened geopolitical risks and supported gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6] Group 3 - Oil prices have also been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil exports driving prices higher [6][7] - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU has intensified the pressure on the global energy market, with significant implications for oil supply and pricing [7] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is expected to address production strategies, which could further impact oil price volatility [7]

尽管贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险挥之不去，但弱势美元和"打了折扣"的关税为全球经济提供了意想不到的缓冲。IMF将2026年全球经济增长预 期从3.0%上调至3.1%，2025年预期从2.8%上调至3.0%。美国和中国的经济增长预期也获得上调。 7月29日（周二），国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新《世界经济展望》报告，为笼罩在贸易战阴影下的全球经济带来了些许曙光。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）上调了其对全球经济增长的预测，指出弱势美元和低于预期的美国关税，共同为世界经济提供了缓冲，使其得以展现 出一种"薄弱的韧性"。 IMF预计，2026年全球经济增长率将达到3.1%，高于4月份预测的3.0%；2025年的增长预期也从2.8%上调至3.0%。作为世界最大的两个经济体， 美国和中国的增长前景同样获得了上调。 IMF首席经济学家Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas表示，美元走弱缓解了全球金融环境，因为这降低了许多新兴市场和外国公司以美元计价的债务的偿债 成本。同时，他指出，目前美国对进口商品征收的有效关税率约为17%，低于4月份预测时所依据的24%，"关税压力有所缓解"。 然而，IMF警告称，这种复苏的根基 ...

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