Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month). On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose at a low level, with average on-site discussions and a slight increase in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal areas have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal state, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure on the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. - For the strategy, the unilateral strategy is neutral. Attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, especially the changes in the Sino-US tariff policy negotiation from July 27th to July 30th and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. There are no cross-period or cross-variety strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No core view is presented in the provided content. The document mainly lists the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities and financial instruments. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 6110, futures price is 5928, basis is -182, and basis rate is -2.98% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 6070, futures price is 6212, basis is -142, and basis rate is -2.29% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3430, futures price is 3490, basis is -60, and basis rate is -1.72% (calculated). - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3503, futures price is 3503, basis is 0, and basis rate is 0% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 817, futures price is 798, basis is 19, and basis rate is 2.37% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1538, futures price is 1633, basis is -95, and basis rate is -5.84% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1155, futures price is 1121, basis is 34, and basis rate is 3.08% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price is 79025, futures price is 78840, basis is 185, and basis rate is 0.23% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price is 20620, futures price is 20605, basis is 15, and basis rate is 0.07% [1]. - **Heavy - Melt Aluminum (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3245, futures price is 3307, basis is -62, and basis rate is -1.88% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price is 22655, futures price is 22500, basis is 155, and basis rate is 0.68% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price is 266660, futures price is 266100, basis is 560, and basis rate is 0.21% [1]. - **Nickel (NI5509)**: Spot price is 121800, futures price is 121750, basis is 50, and basis rate is 0.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (22509)**: Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12920, basis is 150, and basis rate is 1.16% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 73150, futures price is 70840, basis is 2310, and basis rate is 3.26% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 9800, futures price is 9350, basis is 450, and basis rate is 4.81% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 771.4, futures price is 767.2, basis is 4.2, and basis rate is 0.54% (calculated) [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9195.0, futures price is 9163.0, basis is 32.0, and basis rate is 0.35% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 2983.0, futures price is 2860, basis is 123.0, and basis rate is 4.12% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y15209)**: Spot price is 8270, futures price is 8226.0, basis is 44.0, and basis rate is 0.53% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 8970, futures price is 8970.0, basis is 0.0, and basis rate is 0.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2660.0, futures price is 2510, basis is 150.0, and basis rate is 5.64% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price is 9560, futures price is 9492.0, basis is 68.0, and basis rate is 0.72% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2302.0, basis is 48.0, and basis rate is 2.09% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price is 2720, futures price is 2666.0, basis is 54.0, and basis rate is 2.03% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 14150.0, futures price is 13880, basis is 270.0, and basis rate is 1.91% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price is 3576.0, futures price is 3040, basis is 536.0, and basis rate is 17.63% (calculated) [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 15431, futures price is 13925.0, basis is 1506.0, and basis rate is 10.82% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6120, futures price is 5867.0, basis is 253.0, and basis rate is 4.31% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7908.0, basis is 692.0, and basis rate is 8.75% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 10790.0, futures price is 8300, basis is 2490.0, and basis rate is 23.08% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 7055.5, futures price is 6942.0, basis is 113.5, and basis rate is 1.63% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4840.0, futures price is 4838.0, basis is 2.0, and basis rate is 0.04% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4530.0, futures price is 4467.0, basis is 63.0, and basis rate is 1.41% [1]. - **Polyester Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price is 6605.0, futures price is 6500.0, basis is 105.0, and basis rate is 1.62% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price is 7374.0, futures price is 7355.0, basis is 19.0, and basis rate is 0.26% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2434.0, futures price is 2405.0, basis is 29.0, and basis rate is 1.19% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1760.0, futures price is 1744.0, basis is 16.0, and basis rate is 0.92% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7385.0, futures price is 7325.0, basis is 60.0, and basis rate is 0.81% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7160.0, futures price is 7160.0, basis is 0.0, and basis rate is 0.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 5192.0, futures price is 5020.0, basis is 172.0, and basis rate is 3.31% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: Spot price is 2642.0, futures price is 2593.8, basis is 48.2, and basis rate is 1.83% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 4028.0, basis is 420.0, and basis rate is 9.50% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3619.0, basis is 156.0, and basis rate is 4.31% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: Spot price is 12100.0, futures price is 11835.0, basis is 265.0, and basis rate is 2.24% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1188.0, futures price is 1168.0, basis is 20.0, and basis rate is 1.68% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1318.0, futures price is 1303.0, basis is 15.0, and basis rate is 1.15% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 15010.0, futures price is 14900.0, basis is 110.0, and basis rate is 0.74% [1]. Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4152.0, futures price is 4141.4, basis is 10.6, and basis rate is 0.26% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2814.0, futures price is 2808.6, basis is 5.4, and basis rate is 0.19% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6356.1, futures price is 6263.0, basis is 93.1, and basis rate is 1.49% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6773.9, futures price is 6662.0, basis is 111.9, and basis rate is 1.68% [1]. - **2 - Year Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 102.30, futures price is 100.23, basis is 2.07, and basis rate is 2.06% (calculated) [1]. - **5 - Year Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 105.55, futures price is 100.52, basis is 5.03, and basis rate is 4.89% (calculated) [1]. - **10 - Year Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 108.14, futures price is 106.74, basis is 1.4, and basis rate is 1.29% (calculated) [1]. - **30 - Year Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 133.24, futures price is 117.89, basis is 15.35, and basis rate is 12.47% (calculated) [1].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - **Market Outlook**: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9030, with a basis of 60, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have increased [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 108, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply - The report mentions the supply aspects of imported soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].

Group 1 - The basis for the CSI 300 IF2508 contract is at a discount of 0.62, while the SSE 50 IH2508 contract is at a premium of 4.01. The CSI 500 IC2508 contract is at a discount of 37.13, and the CSI 1000 IM2508 contract is at a discount of 42.88 [1] - The month difference for the CSI 300 IF2508-2509 price spread is 9.2, while the SSE 50 IH2508-2509 price spread is -1.2. The CSI 500 IC2508-2509 price spread is 56.0, and the CSI 1000 IM2508-2509 price spread is 68.8 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend. International LPG prices are weak, with a significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing, weak combustion demand restricts upward movement [1]. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Data - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. FEI and CP prices dropped, PP prices declined sharply, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP worsened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG market weakened, with the 08 - 09 spread at - 7 and the 08 - 10 spread at - 411. The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - The PG market oscillated. The basis weakened to 370 (-63), and the inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with Qingdao Yunda adding 1000 lots. External market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio declined [1]. Regional and Spread Data - In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window closed. FEI propane discount continued to fall, and the CP arrival discount oscillated. FEI - MOPJ changed little, at - 47.5 (-3.75) [1]. Profit and Demand Data - PDH profit improved, while MTBE export profit declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly. Chemical demand was strong; PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. Alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan. MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports and overall stable operation. Combustion demand was weak [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. They provide detailed data on price differences, ratios, and related market indicators, helping investors understand market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports provide detailed data on the price differences of various stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - spot price difference is -3.33, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 34.10% and a full - historical percentile of 34.80% [1]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Different cross - period price differences are presented, such as the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, and the difference between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts for each index futures [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures, like IC/IF, IC/IH, and IF/IH, are also provided, along with their historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: Data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL, are given. For example, the TS basis on 2025 - 07 - 25 is 1.4667, with a change of 0.0162 from the previous day and a historical percentile of 19.10% [2]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Cross - period price differences for different contracts of treasury bond futures, such as the difference between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, are presented [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Price differences between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T, are also provided [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The reports show the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures, including AU2510, AG2510, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as their changes and price - to - spot differences [4]. - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: Ratios between gold and silver futures, such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver, and spreads between different gold and silver products, like gold TD - SHFE gold and silver TD - SHFE silver, are provided [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Information on interest rates (e.g., 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield) and exchange rates (e.g., US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) is also included [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies, such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC, are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, including SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight indexes, such as SCFI composite index and SCFI (European), are presented, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures contracts, like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2508 (the main contract), and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on container shipping fundamentals, including global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators (e.g., Eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index), are also given [6]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Information on overseas data and information sources for different sectors, such as Brazilian secex weekly reports in the agricultural sector and USDA export inspection and crop growth data in the US, is provided [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Domestic data and information sources for different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., global manganese ore shipments, iron ore shipments), energy and chemicals (e.g., MEG port inventory in East China, Shandong local refinery crude oil arrivals), and special commodities (e.g., glass sales - to - production ratio, polysilicon production and inventory), are presented [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic near - month soybean purchases are mostly covered, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The near - month basis is expected to remain under pressure. M09 is expected to be range - bound, and for M01, it is recommended to buy on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to China - US policies [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on July 25 was 19, - 81 in Tianjin, - 161 in both Rizhao and Zhangjiagang, - 141 in Dongguan, - 121 in both Zhanjiang and Fangcheng. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 155, with a decrease of - 103 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - M9 - 1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - RM9 being - 4 and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 346 [6][7] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The USD - CNY exchange rate was 104.00 with no change. There are data on Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil mills' soybean inventories, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventories, etc. [7] 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - Supply: This week, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%. In the next two weeks, Kansas is expected to be dry, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but other areas have normal weather, generally conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to last until September; the shipping in China from October to January is slow [7] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, and soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance. The pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal is normal [8] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]