Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils continues to weaken, inventory growth has expanded. Due to plate mill maintenance, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7900 tons week - on - week, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked as the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils continues to decline, with the weekly apparent demand down 13790 tons week - on - week, high - frequency transactions are at a low level, and the cold - rolled production of downstream industries has declined from a high level, weakening domestic demand resilience. The convergence of domestic and foreign price differences and tariff policy disturbances are fermenting external demand concerns. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continue to weaken, inventory continues to increase and the increase is expanding. Under the weak reality, hot - rolled coil prices are prone to decline, but there are still resistance to decline due to continuous production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to steel [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.1489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7900 tons, a decrease of 7900 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 113300 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 3.07 percentage points compared with the same period [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.0621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13790 tons, a decrease of 13790 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 77000 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 86050 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1130 tons, a decrease of 1130 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 4920 tons compared with the same period [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.5663 million tons, an increase of 86800 tons week - on - week, an increase of 86800 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 807300 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils is 77880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1420 tons, a decrease of 1420 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 10600 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 2.7875 million tons, an increase of 101000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 101000 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 701300 tons compared with the same period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the lead price showed a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little driving force on lead. The supply side remained relatively stable, with the electrolytic lead operating rate steady and the secondary lead smelting still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. The demand side improved slightly compared to last week as the low lead price prompted downstream enterprises to replenish stocks at low prices. However, the lead battery operating rate remained sluggish, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the lead market will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, closing at 16,955 yuan per ton. The inventory of lead ingots in five domestic regions was 71,400 tons, and the LME inventory was 266,300 tons [1] Industrial Performance - Due to the resumption of production of a smelter in Anhui this week, the regional operating rate increased by 6.6 percentage points. A large secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia is in the furnace-drying stage and is expected to produce lead next week. From January to June 2025, the monthly average sequential growth rate of electric bicycles sold through the trade-in program was 113.5%, and the output of the top ten brands of electric bicycles increased by 27.6% year-on-year. A total of 846,500 electric bicycles were traded in and replaced each, and 82,000 sales outlets participated in the program, with an average increase in single-store sales of 302,000 yuan [1] Core Logic - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little impact on lead. On the supply side, there was little change, with the electrolytic lead operating rate remaining stable. Secondary lead was still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. On the demand side, it improved compared to last week as the low lead price led to downstream restocking. However, the lead battery operating rate remained weak, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillatory trend [2] Nanhua's Viewpoint - The lead market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [2]

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak reality versus strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing due to positive macro - policy expectations. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, but is expected to weaken further during the summer heat, and inventory is likely to rise. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal, and glass, but overall it is in a large - range oscillation [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries including steel, and the National Energy Administration is checking for over - production in coal mines, which led to the continuous limit - up of coking coal and a sharp rise in coke and other black - series products [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand dropped month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, and it is expected to weaken further during the summer heat [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices have risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing a short - term strong performance [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, buy on dips after adjustments, and conduct short - term operations. Investors with empty positions should be cautious about chasing the rise [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased. For example, the rebar main - contract closing price is 3307 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous day and 6.20% from last week [2] - **Production**: National building - material steel mill rebar production is 209.06 million tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 million tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product social inventory is 922.11 million tons, up 0.89% from last week; rebar social inventory is 370.16 million tons, up 2.97% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill profitability is fair, with the profit - making steel mill ratio close to 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, but there is significant downward pressure in the near future as it is the consumption off - season. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports futures prices, but port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are rising strongly but are in a large - range oscillation overall [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, be cautious about chasing the rise, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips for short - term operations [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased. For example, the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 1.73% from the previous day and 7.30% from last week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron - ore shipment is 1404.9 million tons, down 10.51% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipment is 833.2 million tons, up 17.37% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: Port total inventory is 13785.21 million tons, up 0.14% from last week; port trade - ore inventory is 9193.54 million tons, down 0.50% from last week [5] 3. Industry News - **Coal Industry**: The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in eight provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. This led to a limit - up in coking coal and a collective surge in the coal sector yesterday [7] - **Iron - Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 14388.56 million tons, an increase of 72.25 million tons from last Monday. Inventory in some regions has increased, while that in others has decreased slightly [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a shock and consolidation manner [3] - Alumina spot prices are expected to gradually peak, and aluminum ingot prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, focusing on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a predicted impact on building steel production of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. The daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with prices hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, domestic "anti - involution" policies drove industrial metals up, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties still exist [2] - Some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may lead to a decline in the local alumina operating capacity. Some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects in the southwest region are about to be put into production, driving up the demand for alumina in the region. However, from a national perspective, alumina supply is still relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of alumina in national electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons this week, which is expected to put pressure on the spot price [3] - On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 3,000 tons from last Monday. The reduction of aluminum rods at the end of the month led to a decrease in the expected proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots. The increase in arrivals became the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season, but the recent inventory performance has been fluctuating [3] - The off - season inventory fluctuates, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. With the increase in macro - risk pricing, attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies. Driven by short - term policies, metal prices have risen. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel has boosted market sentiment, but the demand is in a seasonal weak period, and the inventory is expected to rise further [2]. - For iron ore, although it is in the consumption off - season and the iron - water output is expected to decline, the rising prices of related products such as rebar, coking coal, and glass will support the iron - ore price in the short term, and the decline in port inventory also provides support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a pulsed rise in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The output of rebar decreased last week, the factory inventory decreased, the social inventory continued to rise, and the total inventory increased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the plate sector is better than that for building materials. In the summer high - temperature season, demand will weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing strong short - term performance [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. After adjustment, consider buying on dips, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees, with the hot - rolled coil futures closing price rising by 3.60% week - on - week and the spot price rising by 3.64% [2]. - **Production**: The national building - material steel mill rebar output decreased by 3.51% week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 4.30% week - on - week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.64% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.10% week - on - week last week. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen strongly, breaking through the suppression of multiple resistance levels above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for the price to pull back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased, with the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price rising by 5.54% week - on - week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment decreased by 10.51% week - on - week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment increased by 17.37% week - on - week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and the port trade - ore inventory decreased by 0.50% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2371.2 million tons, a decrease of 290.9 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1389.2 million tons, an increase of 241.3 million tons month - on - month [7]. - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons month - on - month [7]. - On July 21st, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the price of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton for steel - mill customers starting from July 22nd [7]. - In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative iron - ore loading volume was 2466.24 million tons, with a daily average loading volume of 176.16 million tons/day, a 3.21% increase compared to the same period last year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term LLDP E continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7160 and the resistance around 7260. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7215 yuan/ton, with a change of 1. The closing price of the January contract is 7235 yuan/ton, up 10; the closing price of the May contract is 7209 yuan/ton, up 9; the closing price of the September contract is 7215 yuan/ton, up 1. [2] - The trading volume is 181,546 hands, down 22,735; the open interest is 434,235 hands, down 2621. [2] - The spread between the January and May contracts is 26. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 359,889 hands, up 1289; the short position is 401,569 hands, down 607; the net long position is - 41,680 hands, up 1896. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7198.7 yuan/ton, down 7.39; in East China, it is 7301.22 yuan/ton, down 17.8. [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis is - 16.3, down 8.39. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.75 US dollars/barrel, down 0.13; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.41%, down 0.3; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, unchanged. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.05%, up 0.04; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.06%, up 0.04. [2] 3.8 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, China's total polyethylene production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from last week. [2] - From July 4th to 10th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% compared with the previous period. [2] - As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 11th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period. [2] 3.9 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of LLDPE remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. [2] - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. [2] - ExxonMobil and Jilin Petrochemical's new devices have production expectations, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. [2] - The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. [2] - Recently, international oil prices have been weak, weakening cost support. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rebar market is currently facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with a slight accumulation of inventory but still at low levels, leading to a forecast of narrow range trading in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory Data - As of July 17, the national rebar production decreased by 76,000 tons week-on-week to 2.0906 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 144,100 tons [1]. - Social inventory increased by 106,700 tons week-on-week to 3.7016 million tons, but decreased by 208,410 tons year-on-year [1]. - Factory inventory decreased by 77,800 tons week-on-week to 1.731 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 189,000 tons [1]. - Rebar apparent consumption fell by 153,300 tons to 2.0617 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 252,700 tons [1]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - The construction sector is currently in a traditional off-season, with seasonal maintenance increasing at steel mills, leading to a decline in rebar production [1]. - The availability of funds for engineering projects remains low, resulting in continued weak terminal demand and sluggish market transactions [1]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 93,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.15% [2]. - In the real estate sector, fixed asset investment from January to June grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with a decline in real estate investment by 11.2% [2]. Group 3: Export Performance - Despite domestic demand weakness, steel exports remained strong, with 58.15 million tons exported from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [2]. - In June alone, exports reached 9.68 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, which significantly compensates for the lack of domestic demand [2].

Market Overview - On Tuesday evening, rebar futures contract 10 experienced weak fluctuations, closing at 3107, down 0.45% [1] Fundamental Summary - Starting from July 16 at 9:30 AM, Shougang Changzhi has uniformly lowered the prices of rebar and ribbed steel by 20 CNY/ton, and for wire rod and line materials by 30 CNY/ton, while other varieties remain stable [2] - As of the week ending July 10, rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand have shifted from increase to decrease, while factory inventory has shifted from decrease to increase. Rebar production was 2.1666 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons week-on-week, down 2%; apparent demand was 2.215 million tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons week-on-week, down 1.50% [2] - On July 15, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends, with Tangshan Qian'an's ordinary square billet ex-factory price down 10 CNY, reported at 2950 CNY/ton. One steel mill raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 50-80 CNY/ton. The average price of rebar in major cities nationwide was 3287 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guantong Futures stated that under the dual weakness of supply and demand, along with gradually cooling market sentiment, rebar prices are significantly under pressure, with limited rebound potential, and are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [3] - Ruida Futures noted that in the macro aspect, fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate development investment declining by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%. In terms of supply and demand, weekly rebar production was adjusted downwards, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, with total inventory at 5.4037 million tons showing a slight decline again, and apparent demand down by 33,700 tons. Overall, the orderly exit of backward production capacity driven by anti-involution still supports the steel market, but weak real estate data drags down steel prices. Technically, the MACD indicator for RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards, with green bars expanding. In terms of operations, short-term trading is suggested in the 3140-3090 range, with attention to risk control [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xinjiang Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., anticipates a net loss for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -6.50 billion to -7.00 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [3]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of -6.50 billion to -7.00 billion yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of -6.60 billion to -7.10 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.20 billion yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of -7.27 billion yuan [5]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was -0.466 yuan [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The steel industry is facing a "double weakness" in supply and demand, with slow market activation and lower-than-expected market demand affecting sales performance [7]. - The company is experiencing low steel prices, underutilization of production capacity, and a decrease in the purchase-sale price difference, which compresses profit margins [7]. - The company plans to enhance core competitiveness, improve operational conditions, control costs, and optimize resource allocation to boost profitability [7].