丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 社融总量稳定增长，政府债延续支撑 ——2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比基本持平，从增量结构上来看，政府债和企业直接 融资为主要贡献项；信贷增量偏弱，但结构上仍有亮点，企业短贷同比正增、票据冲量规模下 降。2025 年 5 月 M1、M2 同比增速分别为 2.3%、7.9%，增速环比提升 0.8 个百分点、微降 0.1 个百分点。存款结构方面，政府债净融资带来财政存款沉淀，企业存款在去年手工补息带 来的低基数下同比少减。信贷增量表现偏弱，但今年政府债为社融增速提供趋势性支撑，随着 市场对贸易摩擦的反应逐步钝化，资金面预计仍是政策真空期影响债市的重要因素。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 社融总量稳定增长，政府 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 06 月 17 日 融资资金延续净流入，政府债券贡献社融主要增量 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0617） 5 月信贷数据主要由政府贡献边际增量，居民端与企业端表现较为平淡。资金 面来看，上周二级市场可跟踪资金小幅净流出，ETF 持续净流出，融资资金保 持净流入。往后看，即将进入半年报业绩预披露窗口，偏质量及权重风格有望 继续占优。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《香港利率位于极低水平，融 资资金重回净流入——金融市场 流动性与监管动态周报（0610）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 11.55↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -149.39↓ | | 融资净买入 | 80.22↑ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 624.10↑ | | IPO ...

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran, has led to a significant increase in oil prices and a rise in the global energy sector, along with a boost in gold prices [1] - In the U.S., May inflation was lower than expected, resulting in the dollar hitting a three-year low, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to fluctuate [1] - Domestic social financing in May showed a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, primarily supported by government bonds, although credit remains weak, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, potentially impacted by U.S. tariff escalations [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced fluctuations but leaned towards strength, with the central bank's active liquidity provision alleviating concerns over tight funding due to upcoming maturities [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards fundamentals as U.S.-China tariff negotiations reached a temporary resolution, with short-term geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting market risk appetite but expected to have a diminishing mid-term impact [1] - The continued weakness of the dollar is likely to attract funds into emerging markets, benefiting equity markets [1] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong stock market, multiple domestic and international factors have collectively strengthened risk appetite, with a potential continuation of this trend in the short term [2] - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has temporarily boosted oil sentiment, although global oil demand may still be affected by tariffs in the medium term [2] - Economic policy uncertainties stemming from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, despite short-term price volatility [2]

Group 1 - The overall financial operation in China shows stable growth in total volume and continuous optimization in structure, with M2 balance at 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - The social financing scale stock reached 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7%, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - Government bonds have become the main driver of social financing growth, with net financing of government bonds increasing by 1.46 trillion yuan in May, accounting for over 60% of the new social financing scale [1] Group 2 - Corporate bond financing has significantly increased, with net financing scale exceeding 140 billion yuan in May, reflecting a recovery trend since the second quarter [2] - The implementation of new policies for the "technology board" has boosted the issuance of technology innovation bonds, particularly among private enterprises [2] - The average yield of 5-year AAA corporate bonds decreased to 1.97% in May, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] Group 3 - Personal mortgage loans have increased, with new resident loans of 54 billion yuan in May, indicating a marginal improvement in the real estate market [2] - The increase in long-term loans is primarily due to improved transactions in the real estate market, particularly in high-capacity urban core areas [2] - The growth of demand for personal mortgages suggests a gradual recovery in consumer confidence, although challenges in inventory reduction and structural optimization in real estate remain [2] Group 4 - The growth rate of demand deposits has accelerated, with M1 increasing by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting improved market demand due to financial support measures [3] - The increase in M1 indicates a rise in real purchasing power, while the flow of funds between deposits and wealth management products has become more frequent [3] - The central bank's recent financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and the creation of structural monetary policy tools, are expected to continue to ensure stable economic development [3]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing (社融) remained stable at 8.7% in May, with new social financing of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Government bonds, corporate bonds, and foreign currency loans were the main supporting items for social financing, while weak entity credit continued to be the largest drag, indicating a weak internal financing willingness[9] - New corporate short-term loans amounted to 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230 billion yuan, while new medium- and long-term loans were 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan[21] Group 2: Household Sector Insights - Household short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1 billion yuan, while new medium- and long-term loans were 74.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2 billion yuan[22] - The real estate market showed signs of marginal recovery, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreasing by 3.3% year-on-year, but rebounding by 8.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[22] Group 3: Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, while M2 growth rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%[35] - The increase in M1 was attributed to a low base effect from last year and a tendency for companies to hold cash rather than invest[35] - The marginal decline in M2 was influenced by a decrease in the attractiveness of deposits relative to wealth management products and an increase in fiscal deposits of 880 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.7 billion yuan[38] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The outlook for social financing growth is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8.5%-9.0%, with government bonds continuing to act as a stabilizer[44] - Key risks include macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, slower demand recovery, and potential geopolitical risks[45]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the financial sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 620 billion, which is lower than market expectations of approximately 800 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion [1][2]. - Social financing (社融) in May 2025 increased by 2.29 trillion, surpassing market expectations of about 2.05 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [1][2]. - M1 growth rate rebounded to 2.3% in May, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 7.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [1][4][6]. - Total deposits in May 2025 increased by 2.18 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion, mainly from corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In May 2025, new RMB loans totaled 620 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, primarily due to a decline in corporate medium to long-term loans [1][2]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,100 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2,300 billion [2]. Social Financing - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, mainly from government bonds and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Government bond issuance was 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was recorded at 2.3%, while M2 growth rate stood at 7.9%, indicating stable trends in monetary aggregates [1][4][6]. - The report anticipates that the growth rates of monetary aggregates and social financing will stabilize and potentially rebound in the third quarter of 2025 due to low base effects [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in May 2025 were 2.18 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5,000 billion, driven by corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the future week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care for the capital market and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [1]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a significant increase in net buying volume in the past week, while rural commercial banks have become the main seller [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The Central Bank Announces Another Injection of Medium - and Long - term Liquidity - In the statistical period (June 9 - 13, 2025), 7 - day reverse repurchase funds of 930.9 billion yuan matured, and the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan for the whole week, and the OMO stock decreased to 858.2 billion yuan. The central bank announced a second - round 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for the next week, achieving a net injection for the whole month [10]. - During the statistical period, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.52 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 262.06 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.10409 trillion yuan, completing 46.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 8.372 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.00893 trillion yuan, completing 38.6% of the annual plan, with a slowdown in the issuance speed. As of June 13, 1.68 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts had been issued, completing 84.2% of the annual plan [13]. - In terms of capital structure, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased significantly to over 4.5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. The DR series declined, with overnight rates operating near the policy rate, and the spread between 7 - day rates and the policy rate narrowed to 10bp. The R series rose, and the liquidity stratification increased slightly but remained at a low level. The capital market showed a situation of "increasing volume and decreasing price" throughout the week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday, and a balanced feeling for the whole week [15]. 1.2 CD Review: The Secondary - Market Interest Rate of CDs Declined Slightly, and the Demand from Core Buyers Strengthened - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 16.226 billion yuan in the statistical period, with a total issuance of 104.137 billion yuan and a maturity of 120.363 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 102.164 billion, 113.781 billion, and 24.579 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6744% (previous value: 1.7106%) [18]. - In the secondary market, core buyers such as funds and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, money market funds changed from selling to buying, large - scale banks continued to reduce their holdings, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks changed from buying to selling, and insurance and other non - banking institutions and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 1.78BP/ - 2.00BP/ - 1.50BP/ - 1.05BP/ - 0.91BP respectively [20]. 1.3 Next - Week Focus: The Central Bank's Firm Care for the Capital Market and the Marginal Relief of CD Issuance Pressure - In terms of the capital market, the May social financing data showed that the credit demand of residents and enterprises had recovered compared with April, with a weak stabilization of overall credit demand. The increase in government bond supply drove the stable growth of social financing, which is expected to support the key period of fiscal expenditure in June. After the deposit rate cut in May, the phenomenon of deposit transfer emerged, with a significant increase in non - banking deposits. The central bank announced a second - round injection of 40 billion yuan of 6 - month outright repurchase in the middle of the month. Combined with the previous 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright repurchase and the 120 - billion - yuan maturity this month, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases for the whole month was 20 billion yuan. The central bank's small - scale net withdrawal in open - market operations in the past two weeks also showed its care for the capital market. It is expected that the market will price a positive signal on June 16, but the amplitude will be smaller than that on June 6. In the next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [24]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, the net financing of CDs remained negative in the past week. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity relieved the liability pressure of banks, and the primary - market interest rate of CDs decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers strengthened marginally, and the secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [25]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking Recent Considerations on Institutional Assets and Liabilities - The trends of the active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds deviated significantly at times recently. The main reasons are that the supply rhythms of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were staggered in June, and the weak sentiment in the primary - market allocation disturbed the secondary - market. Since the beginning of the second quarter, interest rates have mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, and institutions had a strong desire to increase duration to obtain excess returns during the window of loose liquidity at the beginning of June. The trading volume of 30 - year treasury bonds increased more significantly than that of 10 - year treasury bonds. Looking forward, there will be no issuance pressure for 10 - year treasury bonds in the second half of June, and the capital price still shows certain volatility. The window period for institutions to increase duration may end, and the performance of 30 - year treasury bonds may not continue to outperform [27]. - The rotation of the bond - replacement market of China Development Bank (CDB) bonds has been very fast recently. When the bond - replacement of CDB active bonds accelerates, the volatility of new bonds will also increase. Therefore, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds has fluctuated significantly recently. In the short term, old bonds may be safer to avoid volatility [28]. Key Review of Institutional Secondary - Market Transactions - Large - scale banks continued to buy treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, with a buying volume of about 77.6 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a net buying volume of about 160.4 billion yuan in the past week, showing a significant increase. Rural commercial banks have become one of the main sellers, with a net selling volume of about 109.2 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - The main buyers of CDs are money market funds, wealth management products, and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks and securities firms [31]. - The net buying volume of main non - banking buyers of credit bonds increased. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest increase. Since late March, the net buying volume of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years has been generally stable, while the net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years has fluctuated greatly, and the main non - banking buyers increased their buying volume significantly in the past week [31]. - For secondary - tier capital bonds, funds with a maturity of less than 2 years changed to net sellers, with a net selling volume of about 4.9 billion yuan in the past week, while wealth management products and other products changed to net buyers. The main buyers of 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier capital bonds continued to increase their buying volume, with funds having the largest net buying volume of about 36.2 billion yuan, and the banking system was the main net seller. The trading of 5 - 10 - year secondary - tier capital bonds remained light [31]. High - Frequency Data Tracking of Bond Market Micro - Structure - On June 13, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 5.92bp, and the spread fluctuated and widened. The spread between 1 - year CDB bonds and R001 was 1.87BP, and the yield of short - term bonds was slightly higher than the capital price [33]. - The leverage ratio of the bond market in the week before the holiday was 107.72%, continuing to rise month - on - month [35].

2025 年 06 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回升 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：二级市场表现领先，REITs 总 市值首破两千亿*林加力》——2025-06-09 《2025 年 6 月大类资产配置报告：审慎情绪延续， 聚焦结构性机会*林加力》——2025-06-05 《公募 REITs 周报：市场活跃度略降，交通基础设 施连续上涨*林加力》——2025-06-04 《公募 REITs 周报：市场持续活跃，保障房与交通 领涨*林加力》——2025-05-27 金如何配置行业*林加力》——2025-05-19 投资要点: 国海证券股份有限公司 【银行&资产配置小组介绍】 林加力，国海证券研究所副所长、首席资产配置官、金融首席分析师。毕业于浙江大学、复旦大学，曾就职于 海通证券、民生证券、浦发银行。2019-2023 年连续上榜新财富最 ...