Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The recent US non-farm employment data significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to concerns about a cooling labor market [1] - The labor participation rate remained stable, but the slowdown in wage growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate indicate weakening marginal resilience in the job market [1] - The market is experiencing a rapid repricing of economic outlook, with major US stock indices dropping over 1.5% and a short-term decline of 5 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The dismissal of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics head and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler have amplified policy uncertainty [2] - There is a noticeable split among Federal Reserve officials, with dovish members advocating for an early interest rate cut due to weak employment data, while hawkish members focus on persistent core PCE inflation above the 2% target [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Trading Platforms - Market bets on a policy shift have increased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rising to 82%, a 30 percentage point increase from before the data release [3] - XBIT decentralized exchange has gained traction among investors seeking to hedge against traditional market volatility, offering advantages such as no KYC requirements and self-custody of assets [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Asset Performance - The escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation, has injected risk premiums into global asset pricing, with gold futures surpassing $2050 per ounce and Brent crude oil futures rising by 2.3% [5] - The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of safe-haven demand and expectations of policy easing, while emerging market currencies are depreciating under risk sentiment [5] Group 5: Market Volatility and Investment Strategies - The non-farm data has acted as a catalyst for global financial markets to reassess economic and policy fundamentals, with the VIX index rising above 20, indicating potential for sustained asset price volatility [8] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to cash and high-rated bonds in their portfolios to mitigate liquidity shocks and price adjustments due to fluctuating policy expectations [5][8]

Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a deviation of 1 standard deviation[3] - The previous month's job figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months, the largest since June 2020[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[3] Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have become the largest contributors to U.S. non-farm employment, with healthcare jobs up 13% compared to December 2019[3] - In July, the education and healthcare sector added 79,000 jobs according to non-farm data, while the ADP data showed a decrease of 38,000 jobs, indicating a divergence between the two reporting methods[3] - Other sectors, such as federal government and temporary assistance services, continue to see job losses, highlighting a weak employment growth in various industries[3] Data Revision Insights - The significant downward revision of previous non-farm data is attributed to a recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors by the BLS, rather than political motivations[3] - The feedback rates for May's non-farm data were 93.5% and 94.4%, yet the second revision still showed a decrease of 125,000 jobs, indicating potential issues in data collection and reporting[3] Market Implications - Short-term data fluctuations may increase asset price volatility, necessitating a focus on mid-term narratives such as the ongoing accommodative monetary policy and the challenges facing the U.S. dollar's credibility[2] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 185,000, marking the lowest level since December 2023 [2] - Three major sectors showed notable declines: retail sector layoffs of 12,000 (seasonally adjusted), a reduction of 34,000 temporary jobs indicating corporate contraction, and zero job growth in government sectors reflecting peak fiscal spending [3] - The market reacted sharply with a 15 basis point drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a 2% short-term jump in gold prices, and a mixed performance in the S&P 500 as investors bet on earlier interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Despite the employment slowdown, hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month (annualized at 4.8%), creating a paradox of wage inflation against the backdrop of a cooling job market [4] - The report highlights the delayed effects of interest rate hikes and suggests that the policy debate is entering a more complex phase, as the narrative of a "soft landing" faces challenges from the data [4] - The market is advised to prepare for greater volatility as the economic indicators present conflicting signals regarding the labor market and inflation risks [4]

Group 1: US Labor Market and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments indicates that the mild weakness in the US labor market supports the soft landing forecast, with job creation concentrated in long-term labor shortage sectors like healthcare [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for July will be a key driver for the US bond market, with potential soft labor market performance increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in September [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that enhanced economic activity in July has supported the US dollar, leading to a significant increase in the dollar index by 3.19%, the largest monthly gain since April 2022 [1] Group 2: UK Manufacturing and Economic Sentiment - S&P Global Market Intelligence notes that UK manufacturing is showing preliminary positive signals, although rising labor costs have led to a decline in employment indicators [2] - The UK Chancellor's upcoming fiscal plans may keep manufacturers cautious, especially as the Bank of England is expected to review interest rate cuts in light of persistent inflation and labor market weakness [2] - Analysts highlight that despite a slight increase in France's July PMI, a sharp decline in order volumes and business confidence indicates significant pressure on the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Eurozone Manufacturing and Inflation Trends - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI final value reached 49.8, the highest level since July 2021, with industrial output growing for the fifth consecutive month [3] - Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to a 35-month high of 49.1, while France and Austria's PMIs were at 48.2, indicating a need for continued monitoring of manufacturing trends [3] - The Eurozone's July consumer price index (CPI) annual rate reached 2.0%, above the expected 1.9%, suggesting inflation may remain above the European Central Bank's expectations in the coming quarters [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward breakthrough of zinc prices from the range-bound consolidation has limited further upside potential, and the downward movement is also not smooth. The short - term directional signal is insufficient. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation of zinc is expected to continue until 2026. It is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1][2][7]. - In the third quarter, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline, while in the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level [1][7]. 3. Summary by Section Zinc Market Review - After the delay of extreme US tariffs and the repair of market panic, zinc prices in the Shanghai market filled the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The expected economic soft - landing in the US and inflation expectations support zinc prices. However, due to the increase in domestic and overseas mine production, high prices of by - products, and pre - consumption caused by tariffs, the fundamentals have turned to supply increase and demand weakness, and the zinc price in Shanghai is under pressure at the 23,000 yuan integer mark [1]. - The shift of the zinc term structure from "B" to "C" indicates that the change from strong to weak fundamentals is being fully priced. Under the situation of weak reality and weak expectations, the term structure is flat. The profit space for short - selling is narrowed, and the loss from position transfer is also greatly reduced. In the third - quarter consumption peak season, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline [1]. Policy - level Impact on Zinc Prices - Tariffs: After the delay of high - level Sino - US tariffs, the supply of imported mines is relaxed, but the pre - demand caused by tariffs has overdrawn some future consumption space, and the domestic social inventory of zinc has gradually increased. Attention should be paid to the progress of the third - round Sino - US negotiations on August 12, and the market generally expects another 90 - day tariff delay [2]. - Anti - involution: In the short term, it has a supporting effect on zinc prices, but in the long - term, it has little impact on the upstream and downstream production capacity of zinc, and the situation of supply increase and demand weakness is expected to continue [2]. - Power sector: The long - term investment in the power sector is optimistic. Although the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has limited direct demand for zinc, the supporting power grid and infrastructure construction can drive zinc consumption [2]. - Infrastructure: As of the beginning of the year, local special bonds have mainly been used to repay old debts, and the infrastructure has not strongly stimulated demand. With the weakening of the US dollar and the loosening of the domestic monetary policy in the second quarter, some infrastructure projects may be implemented during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2]. Domestic Refinery Raw Material Supply and Industrial Chain Profit Distribution - In June, the raw material inventory days of domestic refineries reached 29.7 days. The project approval of domestic lead - zinc mines has accelerated, and mines are expanding and resuming production. Refineries have a low acceptance of high - priced imported ingots, making it difficult for import ore traders to raise prices. The domestic TC of imported ore has increased, and the profit of mines is high, with room for short - selling mine profits on the futures market [4]. Impact of LME Deliverable Inventory Concentration on Shanghai Zinc - On July 18, the LME zinc price rose by 3.16%, the largest daily increase this year. The market is concerned about the squeeze - out risk. The net position of LME zinc investment funds has changed from short to long, and the external market has a strong trend, which has an obvious pulling effect on the domestic market. Short - term sharp decline of zinc prices is difficult. However, the long - position of investment funds on the LME has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks [5]. Zinc Price Rebound and High - level Hedging Pressure - There is still a demand for high - level industrial hedging. When the zinc price in Shanghai is above 23,000 yuan, the entry of hedging positions brings downward pressure. Speculative funds tend to believe that the rebound high of zinc is in the range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton [6]. Overall Market Outlook - In the third quarter, zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there is high pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant rally since June, with prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, and a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Analysts express optimism about silver's future performance, attributing recent price increases to the passage of the U.S. tax reduction bill, which is seen as a fiscal stimulus that supports silver's commodity attributes [1] - Three factors are expected to influence silver's short-term performance: reduced uncertainty in tariff policies weakening silver's safe-haven appeal, the implementation of the U.S. tax reduction bill potentially boosting the economy, and a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand, which constitutes 50% of its total demand, is expected to provide additional support as market expectations for an economic "soft landing" rise, leading to stronger performance in industrial metals [2] - The rotation of funds from high-priced gold to more elastic silver and other precious metals is noted, as investors seek better value during gold's plateau phase [2] Group 3: Long-term Projections - Long-term projections indicate that the confluence of industrial demand and improved financial attributes of silver may lead to continued excess returns [3] - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will break the $40 per ounce mark in the coming months, raising its three-month target price from $38 to $40 and its six to twelve-month target from $43 [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June, the overseas market saw a resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade, while domestic market sentiment was buoyed by a mild economic recovery[1] - The "Goldilocks" trade was driven by three factors: successful implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," lower-than-expected inflation data in May, and resilient employment data despite a mild economic slowdown[2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.3% since July 7, while the US dollar rebounded by 0.9%[5] Group 2: Domestic Market Focus - Domestic economic recovery was supported by effective consumption policies, with retail sales growth in May reaching a new high since 2024[3] - The core CPI in June rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating sustained domestic demand release[3] - Manufacturing PMI in June exceeded expectations, with domestic orders recovering faster than new export orders[3] Group 3: Key Concerns for July - Overseas, the focus shifted to potential inflation risks, with rising retail prices and manufacturing price indices indicating upward inflation pressure in the US[4] - Domestic attention remains on "anti-involution" policies aimed at balancing supply and demand, with a focus on structural upgrades in industries[4] - The US announced tariff increases on 14 countries effective August 1, with rates including 25% on Japan and South Korea, and 30% on South Africa[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, with non-farm payrolls in June adding 147,000 jobs, primarily supported by government sectors[3][4] - The US fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to reach $804.4 billion, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years[5]

Group 1 - President Trump threatened to raise the baseline tariff rate to 20%, citing record stock market gains to alleviate concerns about global economic impacts [1] - The market appears to be experiencing "tariff fatigue," with traders seemingly desensitized to economic risks, as indicated by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropping to its lowest level since February [2] - Analysts warn that the current market pricing reflects an overly optimistic view of tariff risks and economic conditions, with the S&P 500 index being considered overbought [2][3] Group 2 - The potential for increased tariffs may inadvertently provide a stronger basis for the administration to impose them, as financial indicators are viewed as measures of policy success by Trump [2] - Current economic impacts from tariffs have not yet materialized, with controlled inflation in the U.S. and strong Asian exports, although concerns about sustainability in growth remain [3] - The repeated threats of tariffs are seen as a strategy to accelerate negotiations, allowing Trump to claim victories without investors becoming overly concerned about each tweet or decision [3]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a complex signal regarding monetary policy amid external shocks, particularly inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3] - If tariff-induced price increases are sustained and exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider maintaining a stricter monetary policy stance, even if core inflation data temporarily declines [3] - The minutes acknowledge a potential "stagflation" scenario where rising inflation coincides with a weakening labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to make difficult trade-offs between inflation and employment targets [3][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the minutes, short-term interest rate futures experienced increased volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty about potential rate cuts in September [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is becoming highly data-dependent, with no clear signals indicating whether inflation expectations are out of control or if there is significant deterioration in employment [4] - The current environment is characterized by political risks, disrupted global supply chains, and misaligned expectations between domestic prices and employment, making upcoming data crucial for future policy decisions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment is better than the previous cycle. The contraction of the US manufacturing industry is offset by the growth of personal consumption, leading to a significant decline in inflation without a notable increase in unemployment. With the Fed's good expectation management, the current economic cycle has the conditions for a "soft landing", and the liquidity release caused by preventive interest rate cuts is beneficial to commodities. In Europe, the "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and increase in terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [1][44]. - The domestic macro - environment is weaker than the previous cycle. The rapid decline of M1, the positive scissors - difference between M2 and the year - on - year growth of social financing stock, and the widening of the scissors - difference between M1 and M2 reflect the decline in social financing demand and the decrease in market risk preference. However, the appreciation of the RMB caused by overseas interest rate cuts is conducive to the implementation of domestic monetary policies. In the real estate industry, high household leverage and urbanization rates restrict the maneuvering space of the current real estate cycle. High inventory of commercial housing and insufficient potential purchasing power will lead to a deeper active de - stocking. In the manufacturing industry, changes in domestic consumption structure and the increase in potential external demand make the current manufacturing cycle more resilient. Although infrastructure funds are still increasing, they are mainly invested in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries is gradually declining. China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume. Although there are more trade barriers, cost advantages ensure that the export volume can still be maintained [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - environment Comparison 3.1.1 US: Interest Rate Cuts Lead to Liquidity Release and Commodities Benefit - In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, the US market was relatively stable with a low federal funds target rate of 0.25% from December 2008 to December 2015. Unemployment rate declined year - by - year, CPI and core CPI fluctuated within a controllable range, PMI data showed manufacturing expansion, and personal consumption expenditure was stable. In the current cycle, the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, with strong potential for interest rate cuts to release liquidity. The continuous significant decline in CPI and core CPI and the stable labor market lay the foundation for preventive interest rate cuts and a soft landing of the economy. The expected interest rate cuts will release liquidity in the money market, which is beneficial to commodities [5]. 3.1.2 Europe: Potential for Liquidity Release - Europe's "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted due to the unified management of the euro by the European Central Bank system and the large differences in economic volume and resilience among EU member states. Previous interest rate hikes suppressed terminal demand, causing CPI and manufacturing PMI to decline. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [11]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - and Meso - level Comparison 3.2.1 Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy - M1 has contracted more severely in this cycle, indicating greater economic downward pressure. In terms of steel consumption potential, it may be weaker than the previous cycle as households are restricted by the real estate market and local governments are burdened with debt, while the central government still has room to increase leverage. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock has been lower than that of M2 since early 2022, and the widening scissors - difference between M1 and M2 shows a decrease in market risk preference. There is still room to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio and LPR, and the appreciation of the RMB after the Fed's interest rate cuts provides space for the implementation of domestic monetary policies [14][16][18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate Industry: Active De - stocking Continues and Downward Pressure is Greater than the Previous Cycle - The real estate industry is a pro - cyclical industry. There is a positive correlation between steel prices and real estate development investment, and M1 and commercial housing sales generally move in the same direction. In this cycle, the real estate industry has greater downward pressure. The real estate development investment and funds have been in negative growth since 2022, and the high household leverage and urbanization rates limit the maneuvering space. The inventory of commercial housing is increasing, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory through price increases. The active de - stocking behavior caused by weak supply and demand may lead to a decline in real estate - related commodity prices [20][22][24]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Industry: Domestic and External Demands Show Resonance - The manufacturing industry is a pro - cyclical industry, and there is a positive correlation between steel prices and manufacturing investment. In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, manufacturing investment declined from 30% to 5%. In the current cycle, manufacturing investment has been stable at around 10%, supported by new energy vehicles, ships, containers, and policy incentives. The "two - new" support funds in 2025 are 300 billion yuan, twice that of 2024, which is conducive to the benign cycle of domestic demand. There is a positive correlation between China's export amount and the PMI of European and American manufacturing industries, indicating resonance between domestic and external demands. The US economy may achieve a soft landing, and there is a possibility of upward resonance of domestic and external demands, which will not drag down steel consumption [30][33]. 3.2.4 Infrastructure: New - quality Productivity Industries Gain Momentum while Traditional Steel - consuming Industries Slow Down - Infrastructure is a counter - cyclical adjustment tool, and there is an inverse correlation between infrastructure investment growth rate and steel prices. In the 2010 - 2016 period, local governments were the main entities for leveraging through urban investment bonds. After 2022, with the decline in land transfer revenue, the proportion of special bonds increased, and policy - based development tools and ultra - long - term treasury bonds can also supplement infrastructure funds. Although the total infrastructure funds are still increasing, the investment is mainly in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries such as roads, railways, and public facilities is gradually declining [35][37][39]. 3.2.5 Export: Trading Price for Volume, Pattern Remains Unchanged - China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume, with an inverse correlation between export quantity and price since 2007. When domestic demand is strong, exports are restricted; when domestic demand is weak, high production leads to an exploration of export paths. Since 2022, some overseas countries have imposed high tariffs or conducted anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel products, increasing export costs and slightly reducing export volume. However, due to cost advantages, China's steel still has global appeal, and the high - volume export pattern is difficult to change. About 70% of steel exports go to Asia, and the trade pattern has been basically stable since 2010 [42][43].