通胀风险仍存，黄金避险需求未消！现货黄金昨日反弹逾百美元，今日再次回落，近期的调整或给多头 带来中长期入场机会？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

一、暴跌全景：多空力量的剧烈碰撞 2025 年 5 月 12 日，国际黄金市场遭遇 "黑色星期一"，伦敦现货黄金价格单日暴跌超 2%，最低触及 3217.1 美元 / 盎司，创近一个月新低；纽约商品交易所黄金期货主力合约同步跳水，跌幅达 3.31%，最 低下探 3211.2 美元 / 盎司。国内金价同步承压，上海黄金交易所 Au99.99 报价 770.45 元 / 克，较前一交 易日下跌 14 元 / 克，周生生、老庙等品牌金饰价格跌破 1000 元 / 克关口。这场暴跌引发全球投资者高 度关注，背后是多重利空因素的集中爆发。 六、结语：在波动中寻找确定性 2025 年 5 月 12 日的金价暴跌，是地缘政治缓和、货币政策预期、技术破位与市场情绪共振的结果。短 期来看，黄金仍面临回调压力，但长期结构性支撑（央行购金、去美元化、通胀风险）未改。投资者需 建立动态风险管理体系，在波动中把握机会：短期警惕技术性抛售与政策不确定性，长期锚定黄金的战 2. 流动性收紧与技术破位共振：2008 年金融危机初期，黄金因流动性枯竭被动抛售；2025 年金价跌 破关键支撑位后触发程序化交易，形成抛售潮。 3. 避险情绪的阶段 ...

周一，日本30年期国债收益率大幅攀升5个基点至2.955%，创下近25年来的最高水平，并逼近历史峰值。 自特朗普4月初升级关税威胁以来，日本债券市场持续遭受动荡。投资者面临着日益复杂的风险组合。 一方面，关税政策对经济构成威胁，削弱了日本央行近期加息的可能性，这使短期债券相对更具吸引力。另一方面，关税政策提高了通胀风险， 降低了超长期债券的投资价值。 日本10年期债券最近的销售录得自2021年以来最疲弱的需求。投资者对周二即将举行的30年期债券拍卖也保持谨慎态度。 "超长期债券市场正在发生不可逆转的结构性变化，30年期收益率不一定会在3%水平停止上涨，"野村证券执行利率策略师Mari Iwashita表示： "在日本央行减少国债购买、寿险公司需求下降等重大趋势转变中，特朗普的关税政策导致美国债券市场动荡，也扰乱了超长期债券的 供需平衡。" 日债市场陷入动荡，长期收益率飙升 5与12日周一，市场风险偏好明显上升。根据商务部的声明，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的 ...

2025年5月12日 周浩 黄凯鸿 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 7214 [Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 [Table_Summary] 贸易谈判初见曙光，宏观风险再定价？ 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 彭博贸易不确定指数 黄金价格（美元/盎司，右轴） 宏观风险有所降温，黄金高位震荡 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际 宏 观 研 究 报 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 4 告 Hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk 市场关注的焦点是中美于周末在日内瓦进行的贸易谈判，从初步结果来看，中 美双方都表达了善意，也都表示谈判取得了重要的成果。对于市场而言，这无 疑是一针强心剂，消息公布后，避险资产如黄金、日元和债券价格出现下跌， 人民币则领衔亚洲货币继续上攻。 与过去几次的中美谈判相比，本次谈判双方表示会发出联合声明， ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are not eager to lower the benchmark interest rate due to concerns over the prolonged impact of tariffs on consumer prices and employment growth, which could hinder the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining high employment levels [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economists predict that the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, effective from April, will lead to higher consumer prices and potentially hinder job growth, complicating the Fed's ability to manage inflation and employment [1][3]. - The FedWatch tool indicates a 51% probability that the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate in July, with markets pricing in three potential rate cuts of 25 basis points this year [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs' impact on inflation, suggesting that the Fed should not commit to further rate cuts until the effects are clearer [3][6]. - New York Fed President Williams highlighted the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations to ensure public confidence in the Fed's ability to return inflation to the 2% target [3][4]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - Fed Governor Cook warned that the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies could suppress U.S. productivity and necessitate higher interest rates to combat inflation stemming from inefficiencies [5][6]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that the Fed requires more time to observe the economic response to tariffs before determining appropriate policy measures, acknowledging the current resilience of the U.S. economy [6][7]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, Fed officials recognize risks to the labor market as businesses assess the implications of new tariffs [6][7]. - Fed officials agree that the current economic conditions warrant maintaining the policy interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% until the effects of government policy decisions are clearer [4][7].

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：中期通胀风险可能偏上行。欧洲央行将保持稳健，将利率维持在当前水平附 近。 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-08 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 点，当前利率期货显示今年仍有3次降息空间。在此背景下，美元指数和长端美债收益率或维持相对承压态 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 790.78 | -12.72 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8094 | -158 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 198555 | 10247 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 228462 | -1892 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107220 | 2768 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 127151 | -2783 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931982 | -8999 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 801.9 ...

"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos：美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：失业率上升和通胀风险已增加。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a bullish trend, nearing the psychological level of $3400 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market sentiment favoring safe-haven assets [1][4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a March core PCE price index of 2.6% year-on-year and resilient April non-farm employment figures, alleviates concerns over "re-inflation" risks, providing support for gold bulls [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong bullish pattern in the gold market, with a "stair-step" breakout characteristic and a high probability of continued upward movement [4] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around $3375, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3400-$3430 [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3388 and $3398, with a breakout target of $3410, while support levels are noted at $3374 and a stronger support zone between $3370-$3366 [4] - The market is expected to remain in a strong bullish trend, with a low probability of reversal in the near term [4]