Group 1 - Global uncertainty has risen since May 16, leading to increased risk aversion and a rebound in gold prices due to concerns over tariffs, U.S. credit rating downgrades, and geopolitical tensions [1] - On May 16, President Trump indicated potential unilateral tariff increases on trade partners, raising market concerns about trade uncertainties [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing large fiscal deficits and increasing government debt burdens, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [1] - Reports of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, causing gold prices to surge past $3,300 per ounce and oil prices to rise by 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, as the dollar's credit system faces challenges from currency overproduction and fiscal deficits [2] - The demand for gold as a safe asset is increasing due to frequent global geopolitical turmoil, prompting diversification of asset reserves [2] - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of high-purity gold (99.99%) and is suitable for investors seeking asset preservation and inflation hedging [2]

周三（5月21日）亚盘时段，现货黄金守住隔夜涨幅并刷新短期高点，盘中最高触及3315美元附近后维持强势，目前交投于3310美元附近。黄金价格周二上 涨逾 1%，收报3289.54美元/盎司，因美国关税政策的不确定性导致美元进一步走弱且美股下跌，而且俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突并未缓和，仍吸引避险买盘支 撑金价。 基本面： 美元指数的持续疲软为黄金上涨提供了另一大助力。周二美元下跌0.35%，触及100关口，周三亚市早盘更是一度跌破99.96，创5月8日以来新低。美联储内 部对通胀的分歧加剧了市场的不确定性。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克直言，关税政策的滞后效应可能推高物价，但通胀是"昙花一现"还是"长期顽疾"仍需观 察。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆则警告，若低估关税对通胀的影响，可能酿成更严重的危机。这种政策迷雾使得美联储降息预期升温，美元吸引力下降，而 黄金的"抗通胀"属性被进一步放大。 此外，本周以来，全球地缘政治局势骤然升温，成为推动黄金价格飙升的核心动力。中东局势的恶化尤其引人注目——以色列被曝正密谋袭击伊朗核设施， 这一消息瞬间点燃市场避险情绪。美国情报显示，以色列已调动航空弹药并完成空中演习，尽管最终行动尚未敲定， ...

【基本面】 美联储内部对通胀的分歧加剧了市场的不确定性。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克认为关税政策的滞后效应可能推高物价，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆则警告低 估关税影响可能酿成更严重的危机。这种政策迷雾使得美联储降息预期升温，美元吸引力下降，而黄金的"抗通胀"属性被进一步放大。 综合来看，黄金当前正处于地缘政治风险、美元走弱和技术面突破的三重利好之中。中东局势若进一步恶化，可能成为金价突破历史高点的导火索；美联储 政策转向的预期则可能在中长期继续为金价提供支撑。对于投资者而言，黄金不仅是避险工具，更是对抗通胀和政策不确定性的战略资产。在当前复杂多变 的"乱世"中，黄金的璀璨光芒或许才刚刚开始闪耀。投资者应密切关注市场动态，把握黄金投资的机会。 本交易日经济数据相对较少，投资者主要留意美国税改法案相关消息，关注地缘局势相关消息，留意美联储官员讲话和国际贸易局势变化。在全球经济和金 融市场充满不确定性的当下，黄金投资的重要性不言而喻，合理配置黄金资产有望在动荡中实现资产的保值增值。 【技术面】 【黄金】 行情回顾： 首先我们先对昨日周二黄金市场做整体的梳理，在昨日市场中黄金价格呈现出上涨的状态。从细节上看，早盘期间价格短 ...

黄金重回3300美元！避险提振再度助攻多头？订单流又给出什么进场信号？阿汤哥正在实时分析，点击 观看 相关链接 实时黄金订单流分析 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant surge in China's gold imports in April, which increased by 73% month-on-month to 127.5 tons, reaching a nearly one-year high despite soaring gold prices [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued new gold import quotas to select commercial banks, indicating a shift from previous restrictions and allowing for increased gold imports [1] - The rise in gold imports is attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties, with both wealthy individuals and ordinary investors opting to buy gold [3] Group 2 - Platinum imports also saw a rise, reaching 11.5 tons in April, marking a new high for the year, indicating a broader trend in precious metal investments [3] - Despite a slight easing in gold prices due to the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between China and the U.S., the PBOC continues to accumulate gold, likely to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [3] - The overall sentiment among investors remains strong, with a willingness to purchase gold regardless of its high price, reflecting a long-term strategy to hold gold [3]

Group 1 - The recent negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ended without any ceasefire agreement, highlighting the increasing tensions and unrealistic demands from the Russian side [1][2] - Ukraine's President Zelensky is actively engaging in "telephone diplomacy" with Western leaders, urging for stricter sanctions against Moscow if Russia does not accept a proposed 30-day ceasefire [4][2] - The geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, as evidenced by the simultaneous rise in gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a shift towards hard assets amid concerns over dollar depreciation and debt risks [4][2] Group 2 - Current silver prices are experiencing volatility, with support levels identified around $31.80 and resistance at $32.45, indicating a potential trading strategy of long positions at support and short positions at resistance [7][4] - The U.S. dollar index is showing signs of a corrective rebound, with a key resistance level at 100.00, suggesting cautious trading strategies in the current market environment [7][4] - The overall market activity is decreasing, and investors are advised to approach trading with caution, particularly in light of the uncertainties in the international gold market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) is experiencing a positive performance with a recent price increase and strong liquidity, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of May 16, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a 32.68% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 6 months [3]. - The average monthly return during up months is 3.04%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 100.00% [3]. Group 2: Risk and Market Sentiment - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and concerns over potential tariffs from the U.S. are contributing to heightened market risk aversion, which supports the continued rise in gold prices [2]. - The market sentiment remains cautious, with the potential for "reciprocal tariffs" adding to uncertainties, reinforcing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 3: Fund Characteristics - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are relatively low compared to similar funds [2]. - The ETF has demonstrated a high tracking accuracy, with a tracking error of just 0.001% over the past two months, the best among comparable funds [3]. - The Sharpe ratio for the ETF over the past year is 2.22, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk compared to peers [3].

实时黄金订单流分析 避险光环褪色！黄金空头蠢蠢欲动？订单流给出什么进场信号？顺姐正在实时分析，点击观看 相关链接 ...

"在周末宣布关税休战后，我们看到股市大幅上涨，至少在短期内，这已经消除了近期推动黄金创下新 高的部分避险焦点，"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示，"如果跌破3200美元的水平，那么我 们可能会很快测试3165美元。" 全球股市在中美贸易紧张局势缓解的背景下上涨，同时也受到相对温和的美国通胀数据的支持。 据外媒报道，周三，黄金价格下跌，因中美贸易紧张局势缓解，缓解了潜在全球衰退的担忧，提升了投 资者的风险偏好，同时削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 现货黄金下跌0.4%，报每盎司3233.69美元。上个月，在贸易局势担忧加剧的情况下，黄金价格曾创下 3500.05美元的历史新高。美国黄金期货下跌0.3%，报3238.10美元。 交易员现正等待周四公布的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）数据，以获取有关美联储利率路径的线索，此 前低于预期的4月消费者价格指数数据引发了市场对今年晚些时候可能降息的猜测。 市场预计美联储今年将降息53个基点，最早从9月开始。 尽管黄金传统上被视为对冲通胀的工具，但在低利率环境下，黄金也往往会表现强劲，因为它不产生利 息。 现货白银下跌0.2%，报每盎司32.83美元，铂金上涨0.8%，报995 ...

周一（5月12日）亚洲市场刚开盘，现货黄金就低开低走，因为上周末中美在瑞士日内瓦开了个高层会谈，谈得挺不错，有了实质 性进展。这一下子就把市场的冒险情绪给提起来了，大家都不怎么想买黄金来避险了。再加上普京说15号要在土耳其恢复俄乌直接 谈判，印巴也停火了，这些消息都让黄金的多头信心受挫。2025年5月12日，在瑞士日内瓦举行的首轮高层中美贸易谈判中，双方 联合声明发布后，金融市场反应强烈，美元指数、现货黄金和布伦特原油都出现了大幅波动。 今日黄金低开低走，接近前期低点附近止跌反弹。四小时级别图显示，自3500至3440区域已构筑下跌趋势通道，当前下方支撑位在 3164附近。需注意该支撑位生效的前提是金价有效跌破3200前低点。通道中轨位于早盘高点3292位置，目前金价运行于通道中下轨 之间，因此3292可作为中期多空分水岭参考。在此关键位下方，翁富豪建议整体思路仍以看空为主。 1.黄金建议反弹3252-3258区域做空，止损在3265，目标看3240-3230 . 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪 老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责 ...