来源：Wind 煤炭ETF（515220）7月10日收涨1.77%，日K线角度录得三根阳线，近4个交易日大额资金连续流入。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议，聚焦全国统一大市场建设推进工作，明确提出"五统一、一开放"的纵深建 设基本要求。会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调要加快建立健全基础制度规则，破除地方保护和市场分割，打通市场 准入退出、要素配置等方面制约经济循环的卡点堵点，对"内卷式"竞争开展综合整治。 7月5日，中国天气网报道"今年以来最强高温过程持续影响，多地闷热贯穿全天"。在副热带高压控制下，我国正经历 今年以来最强高温过程，7月4日进入本次过程的鼎盛时段。在高温影响下，居民制冷用电负荷或将显著提升，从而带 动火电需求走高，电厂耗煤提升，采购力度加大，煤价上涨，迎峰度夏的旺季终至。 年初至今，动力煤煤价已累计下跌146元/吨；焦煤跌幅更高达290元/吨。由于煤价的持续下行，今年1~5月，煤炭行业 实现利润总额同比下滑幅度超50%。对于煤炭行业，"反内卷"是应对产能过剩、价格恶化和可持续发展瓶颈的系统性 纠偏行动。 本轮"反内卷"和历史上去产能有何不同？2016年2月1日，国务院下发《关于煤炭行 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - **ZTO Express**: Focus on performance in Southeast Asia and China market - **Pacific Basin Shipping**: Rating downgrade and market outlook - **Cathay Pacific Airways**: Performance expectations for 2025 - **Siyuan Electric**: Performance in the power equipment sector - **Solar Industry**: Implementation of anti-involution policies and market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments - **ZTO Express**: - Expected to raise full-year guidance for Southeast Asia, but Q2 growth in China slowed to 15%, potentially leading to a downward adjustment of full-year guidance [1][3] - Adjusted net profit forecast for the year is 8.8 billion yuan, with a 19% year-on-year decline [5] - **Pacific Basin Shipping**: - Rating downgraded due to strong stock performance and reasonable valuation [6] - Risks include potential trade agreements between the US and China and global trade deterioration [6] - **Cathay Pacific Airways**: - Anticipated strong performance in H1 2025 with passenger traffic growth exceeding expectations [9] - Oil prices are down year-on-year, benefiting profit margins, but cargo demand remains uncertain [9] - **Siyuan Electric**: - Strong performance in overseas markets and breakthroughs in high-end domestic markets [14] - Expected profit growth of 25% this year, with potential for over 20% growth in the next two years [14] - **Solar Industry**: - Anti-involution policies are being discussed, but specific measures are yet to be implemented [12] - Anticipated decline in demand in the second half of the year, with a forecast of 280 to 300 GW for the year [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Banking Sector**: - Credit card consumption is declining due to rising personal credit delinquency rates, while overall consumer spending is rebounding [10][11] - Bank fee income is expected to recover gradually as consumer spending stabilizes [11] - **Shipping Industry**: - The container shipping sector faces uncertainties due to global trade conditions and capital expenditure slowdowns [7][8] - Ratings for major shipping companies remain cautious, with potential adjustments based on mid-year performance [8] - **General Economic Trends**: - Overall consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, with online payment growth outpacing offline [10] - Household financial assets continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to last year [11]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - **Industry**: Renewable Energy, Logistics, Shipping, Banking, and Raw Materials - **Companies Mentioned**: G2, Zhongtong, Sihuan Electric, and various players in the photovoltaic sector Key Points and Arguments Renewable Energy Sector - Recent discussions on the photovoltaic sector's "anti-involution" measures and their implications for the raw materials industry [1] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and low-price competition, prompting government interest in supply-side reforms [22][23] - The supply chain for silicon materials is currently overstocked, with inventories exceeding 300,000 tons, enough to meet demand for the next six months [26] Logistics and Shipping - G2's Q2 operational data showed a significant increase in Southeast Asia, with a 66% year-over-year growth, surpassing initial guidance of 25-30% [3] - However, growth in China slowed to 15%, leading to expectations of downward adjustments in profit guidance [4] - Zhongtong is expected to stabilize or slightly increase its market share in Q2, despite a projected 19% decline in adjusted net profit [6] Banking Sector - Payment data indicates a rebound in consumer spending, with significant growth in online payments [14][15] - Credit card usage has declined due to stricter lending standards and rising defaults, particularly in large purchases [17] - Overall, the banking sector is cautiously optimistic about a gradual recovery in credit card spending as consumer confidence stabilizes [18] Raw Materials Industry - The raw materials sector is experiencing varied impacts from anti-involution policies, with steel producers showing reluctance to reduce output due to profitability [35] - The government has implemented measures to control overproduction in the cement industry, with a deadline for compliance set for December 31 [32] - Concerns about a potential 50% tariff on imports could lead to inventory shifts and pressure on non-U.S. markets [36] Other Important Insights - The photovoltaic sector's supply-side reforms are still in early stages, with limited capacity exit from the market [24] - The logistics sector's performance is heavily influenced by e-commerce growth, particularly from major clients like TikTok, Lazada, and Shopee [3] - The banking sector's health is improving, but credit card spending remains a concern due to previous high default rates [19] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within various industries and the implications for future performance and investment opportunities.

"黑色系列"专家电话会 20250710 摘要 新疆煤炭储量占全国 40%，产量仅占 11%，主要产区为准东、吐哈、 南疆及印尼地区，其中准东和哈密产量占比超 80%。内销占比约 70%，外运约 28%，未来本地消纳能力将提升。 新疆煤炭外运主要流向甘肃、宁夏、青海、西南等地，占比超 90%。新 铁路建设将显著增加港口方向运输能力，预计三年左右完成建设，北通 道将成为货运主通道。 部分新疆矿井出现亏损，每吨亏损 10-30 元不等，导致部分矿井相对保 守，没有大规模生产。预计下半年市场可能反弹，政策或将提减产和去 产能。 2025 年上半年动力煤市场供大于求，全国 1-5 月新增产量 1.1 亿吨， 消费端仅增加 1,200 万吨，导致价格下跌。下半年高温天气预期将推动 火电需求增长，但发电企业对供应端过度乐观可能导致误判。 鄂尔多斯地区煤矿减产主要受价格因素影响，山西省煤炭产量开始放缓， 安全生产形势严峻，安监会加大监管力度。晋陕蒙新核心地区降雨增多， 对煤炭生产运输和供应产生显著影响。 近年来，新疆煤炭市场发展迅速，产量从 2016 年的 1.67 亿吨增长到 2025 年 的预计 5.7 亿吨。自治区领 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **polysilicon industry** and its current investment opportunities in the **photovoltaic (PV) sector** [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The polysilicon industry is implementing a **production quota control** system through the CPI annual conference and monthly meetings, aiming to restore pricing and reduce operating rates, similar to an **OPEC model** [1][2]. - **GCL-Poly Energy** has proposed a **capacity merger and integration plan** supported by financial institutions, where leading companies will acquire inefficient capacities to achieve capacity clearance and control, which has been confirmed and is being promoted by the government [1][2]. - Recent **polysilicon prices** have significantly increased, with n-type raw material prices rising from **33.5 CNY/kg to 40 CNY/kg**, and expected to reach **45 CNY/kg** within the week [1][3][4]. - The overall **demand for photovoltaics** remains stable, with ground-mounted project demand supported by centralized projects, and commercial distributed projects unaffected by policy changes. Overseas demand is expected to recover month-on-month starting from July, aided by the cancellation of export tax rebates [1][5]. - By **July 2025**, the total polysilicon production is projected to be **104,000 tons**, showing a slight increase due to the resumption of capacity in the Yunnan region during the flood season [1][6]. Additional Important Content - The **supply-side reform** in the photovoltaic industry is divided into two phases: - The first phase (Q4 2024 to Q2 2025) involves industry self-discipline with strict requirements for new capacity, including a maximum reduction electricity consumption of **40 kWh/kg** for polysilicon and **53 kWh/kg** for comprehensive electricity consumption [2]. - The second phase involves the promotion of the capacity merger and integration plan initiated after the SNEC exhibition [2]. - Current industry inventory stands at approximately **400,000 tons**, with a potential slight accumulation in July under balanced supply-demand conditions. However, due to policy constraints and rising price expectations, silicon wafer companies are inclined to stockpile, indicating that polysilicon prices are likely to rebound and recover [7]. - Recommended investment targets include **Tongwei Co., Ltd.** and **GCL-Poly Energy**, with projected stable profits of **7 billion CNY** and **3 billion CNY**, respectively, assuming the industry returns to supply-demand equilibrium and prices recover to **50 CNY/kg** (excluding tax) [2][8]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the current dynamics and future outlook of the polysilicon industry, emphasizing the potential for investment in leading companies within the sector.

光伏行业当前的供需情况呈现出明显的割裂状态。从需求端来看，电力投资企 业在电价和电量不确定的前提下趋于谨慎，导致下游装机增长存在疑问。虽然 难以得出明确结论，但市场需要时间来验证未来能否维持高增长。而从供给端 来看，产能过剩已成为共识。硅料作为光伏产业链中的关键环节，其产量决定 了下游产能的实际规模。如果硅料供应不足，下游产能将无法充分发挥。此外， 组件价格也受到政策干预，通过锁定成本价格来支撑上游环节。这种双重干预 使得市场表现出冰火两重天的状态。 政策对光伏行业有何影响？ 政策对光伏行业产生了显著影响。首先，通过计划经济手段干预市场，以加速 产能出清并决定哪些主体能够留存。例如，136 号文具有划时代意义，它使得 未来电力投资企业的电价发生变化，并呈下降趋势。同时，通过政策干预，希 望以组件为代表的新规产业链环节能够实现盈利，从而快速完成供给侧改革。 然而，这种政策之间双手互搏的情况导致市场出现割裂，一方面要求度电成本 更低，另一方面要求系统成本更高。这种矛盾使得市场处于前所未有的不确定 状态。 硅料产业专家交流 20250710 摘要 光伏行业正经历政策与市场双重干预，一方面通过计划经济手段加速产 能出 ...

Group 1 - The average price of photovoltaic modules, including tax and transportation, has increased by 0.3%-1.5% as of July 9, with silicon wafer prices rising by 8%-11.7% due to upstream silicon material price hikes [1] - The increase in silicon wafer prices is primarily attributed to the rising costs of upstream silicon materials, although the downstream battery segment's ability to absorb these price increases remains uncertain due to slowing terminal demand in the domestic photovoltaic market [1] - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic industry is moving towards a transformation from "price competition" to "quality and price" as a response to the ongoing supply-side reforms and rising costs [1] Group 2 - Huawei's intelligent assisted driving system has accumulated over 30.37 billion kilometers of driving distance as of July 7, 2025, averaging over 10 million kilometers per day [2] - The market for autonomous driving is projected to reach $273.8 billion by 2025, driven by both policy and commercialization factors, marking a pivotal year for the industry [2] - The intelligent driving sector is expected to benefit from the accelerating penetration of smart driving technologies, entering a new phase of "technology + regulation + commercialization" [2] Group 3 - The advent of 6G technology is anticipated to significantly enhance communication capabilities, with theoretical data transmission speeds expected to be several times faster than 5G [4] - The development of 6G is expected to create vast market opportunities across various sectors, including antennas, RF, and communication chips, as infrastructure for communication upgrades is prioritized [4] - The competition among nations for next-generation communication technologies is intensifying, with significant advancements in core technologies for integrated communication across air, space, and ground [3][4] Group 4 - The application of drones in the low-altitude economy is expanding, exemplified by the use of drones for delivering AEDs to enhance emergency response capabilities for river crews [5] - Drones, originally developed for military purposes, are now being utilized in various sectors including commercial, logistics, entertainment, and agriculture, indicating a broadening of their application [5] - Analysts believe that drones will play a crucial role in the development of the low-altitude economy as their application fields continue to deepen and expand [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3510, up by 0.48% on the day and 1.40% for the week [1] - The overseas markets also experienced mixed results, with the Dow Jones Index closing at 44458, up by 0.49% on the day and 2.30% for the week [2] Group 2: Key Recommendations - The report from Ping An Securities highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" market phase, indicating that the current market is still in the expectation catalysis stage, with significant gains observed in sectors like photovoltaic, steel, and cement, averaging 3%-8% during the period from July 2-7 [3][10] - The report suggests focusing on industries with lower capacity utilization and higher profit pressure, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, construction materials, and certain light industry sectors [10] Group 3: Fund Performance - As of the end of June 2025, the total number of fund advisory combinations on the Tian Tian Fund APP reached 446, an increase of 5 from the previous month, indicating a growing interest in fund management [4][11] - The performance of various fund types showed that military, smart manufacturing, healthcare, consumer, and dividend strategies outperformed their benchmarks, while new energy, technology, and gold strategies lagged [12] Group 4: Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in addressing "involution" competition, with recent meetings highlighting the need for industry self-regulation and quality improvement [7][8] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current "anti-involution" measures differ from previous supply-side reforms, focusing more on market-driven approaches rather than administrative measures [8][9] Group 5: New Stock Overview - Upcoming IPOs include Shanda Electric Power with an issue price of 14.66 and a subscription limit of 1 million shares, and Jiyuan Group with an issue price of 10.88 and a subscription limit of 1.2 million shares [15]

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Outlook - The expectation of "anti-involution" is difficult to disprove, and commodities are generally strong [1]. 2. Variety Analysis 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The stock index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points. The trading volume of the two markets continued to rise to 1.53 trillion yuan. The media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and comprehensive finance sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals led the losses [1]. - As the stock index valuation rises to a high level, market caution has increased. Without new positive news, the market will return to high-level volatility in the short term. Considering the significant impact of the mid-year report performance in July, the IF and IH contracts with clear constituent stock earnings may be more resilient. Overall, although there are still uncertainties in the external environment, the A-share market shows resilience, and the trading volume has increased, with the oscillation center expected to continue to move up [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market remained loose, and the bond market remained at a high level. The bond futures rose slightly yesterday and remained within the range. Domestically, the latest inflation data was still weak. Trump announced a second wave of tariff letters involving eight countries. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believed that tariffs might continue to push up inflation [1]. - The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation, but the capital market remained loose. The equity market did not continue its strength yesterday, reducing the drag on the bond market. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, the bond market has limited directional drivers. However, with an optimistic capital market outlook, the bond market will remain at a high level. But there are still risks of high valuation pressure and high congestion. Continue to monitor the performance of the equity market, and the stock-bond seesaw may continue [1]. 2.3 Gold and Silver Futures - The US government continued to release new tariff policy information, which had limited impact on the market. The logic of factors such as services and inflation that are favorable to gold prices has not been disproven, and the central bank's continuous gold purchase behavior has not ended. In the short term, gold prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at the 68.5% quantile in the past three years. The silver price fluctuates with gold, and after the silver price breaks through, the support around 8500 is strong. Strategically, it is recommended to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver until expiration, or transfer the position to the October contracts [4]. 2.4 Non-Ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The LME copper performed the weakest, and the inventory continued to rise. The Shanghai copper followed the LME copper and fell sharply at the opening yesterday, then oscillated at a low level. The domestic inflation data was still weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The supply at the mine end remained tight, and the demand outlook was still cautious. Affected by Trump's statement of a 50% tariff increase on copper, the COMEX and LME copper prices diverged, with the premium exceeding 25%. However, due to the large inflow of copper in the US, the market's expectation of copper surplus in the US after the tariff implementation increased. The inventory of the three major exchanges has been rising, and the domestic market generally followed the LME, but the decline was slightly smaller. The financial attribute still supports copper prices in the medium to long term, but the tariff policy is uncertain, and the structural mismatch persists, so copper price fluctuations may increase [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina prices continued to be strong, breaking through 3200. The Shanghai aluminum oscillated higher at night. The domestic inflation data was weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The recent strength of alumina prices was mainly due to the "anti-involution" expectation, but the excess capacity situation remained unchanged. The supply of Shanghai aluminum was constrained, and the import profit was inverted. The demand was cautious due to the off-season, and the inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, alumina is temporarily strong due to sentiment, but the upside is uncertain. The medium-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short-term demand and inventory are dragging, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has seasonally recovered, and the port inventory has increased significantly, causing the nickel ore price to decline marginally. In June, the nickel iron production in Indonesia and China decreased by 3.85% month-on-month but increased by 22.21% year-on-year. The supply was relatively abundant, but downstream demand was limited. The price of intermediate products was relatively firm. The nickel fundamentals have not improved, and the off-season demand is not favorable. The supply pressure has increased with the increase in the Philippines' ore supply. Recently, the nickel price has oscillated lower, but the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the demand for MHP, and the price of intermediate products has rebounded. As the nickel price dropped to 119,000 yuan, the downward momentum weakened, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term. The short position of out-of-the-money call options strategy can be continued [4][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite have continued to rise, driving up the lithium price due to increased mining costs. However, the improvement in the lithium carbonate fundamentals is limited. The production capacity of salt lakes has continued to increase seasonally, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has remained at a relatively high level this year. The downstream demand has not increased, and the production schedules of battery cell and cathode enterprises have been mediocre. The traditional off-season will also limit the growth rate of terminal demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is still in the accumulation cycle, and the upside of the price is limited. It is advisable to short at high levels during this stage of the rebound [6]. - **Silicon Energy**: The supply-side reform and industry restructuring expectations of the polysilicon industry have increased significantly due to the policy signal of capacity regulation. The recent strong performance of the polysilicon spot price has further promoted the rise of the polysilicon futures price. In the short term, the sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not fully reflected. Overall, the policy support for the price is strong, and it is advisable to hold the short position of put options [6]. 2.5 Steel and Iron Ore Futures - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar fluctuated slightly yesterday. The trading volume of construction steel decreased to 88,500 tons. The demand in the off-season has no bright spots, and the market drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again. The market expectation is optimistic, but the time for the implementation of supply contraction is uncertain. On the one hand, the profit of electric arc furnaces has recovered, and there is a risk of increased production in the off-season. On the other hand, the profit of long-process steel mills is good, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the rebar futures price will oscillate strongly, with the bottom rising and the upside limited by the electric arc furnace cost. The option-selling strategy is temporarily better than the single-sided futures strategy. It is recommended to continue to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P2900) [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot rolled coil fluctuated yesterday. The demand in the off-season is average, both in reality and expectation. Overseas orders for automobiles and home appliances have weakened, and the domestic "trade-in" policy has limited room. The price difference between domestic and foreign steel has narrowed significantly, and the pressure on direct exports may increase. The market upward drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the expectation of crude steel production reduction has increased. The long-process steel mills are actively producing, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the hot rolled coil futures price will oscillate strongly this week, with the bottom cost rising and the upside limited by the export cost. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see on the single side, and consider continuing to hold the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits on the January contracts [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again, but the time for the implementation of steel mill production cuts is uncertain. In the short term, the profit of steel mills still encourages long-process steel mills to maintain an active production rhythm. The daily output of domestic blast furnace hot metal has declined slowly at a high level. Under the background of high hot metal output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply-demand contradiction of imported iron ore in July is limited. The iron ore price is running strongly, compressing the profit of steel mills. The upside of the iron ore price in the off-season is mainly limited by the resumption of electric arc furnace production and the narrowing of the steel price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which restricts the upside of steel prices. It is advisable to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (I2509-P-700) and continue to hold the iron ore 9-1 positive spread strategy (spread 27.5, +0.5) [8]. 2.6 Coal and Coke Futures - **Coking Coal**: The auction price at the mine mouth has continued to rise, and the replenishment enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises and the willingness of the trading sector to enter the market have continued to increase. It is expected that the raw coal inventory of coal mines will further decrease, and the temporary supply-demand mismatch is still favorable for coal prices. The long position strategy can be continued. Recently, attention should be paid to the production increase progress of mines after the safety production month [8]. - **Coke**: The production enthusiasm of steel mills is good, and the daily output of hot metal has remained at a relatively high level in the off-season. The demand for coke in the furnace is supported, and steel mills are still purchasing raw materials. The port trading activity has also increased, and the spot price has increased. The futures price has also shown a strong trend [8]. 2.7 Soda Ash and Glass Futures - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental negative factors are clear, that is, supply exceeds demand. Yesterday, the daily production of soda ash increased to 102,900 tons (+500 tons). Kunshan produced products last night, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry plans to increase production on the 11th. The demand lacks bright spots, and the daily consumption of rigid demand is about 98,000 tons (including exports). Alkali plants may continue to accumulate inventory passively. However, at the micro level, after the single-sided position of the September contracts of soda ash reached a record high, it has rebounded after three consecutive days of position reduction. The single-sided position is still as high as more than 1.59 million lots (equivalent to 31.8 million tons), and the virtual position ratio is too high. Be vigilant against the risk of short squeeze in the market due to the "anti-involution" expectation or sentiment. It is advisable to hold the short position of the September contracts of soda ash with a stop-profit line. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, glass is stronger than soda ash, and the strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash can be patiently held (spread -112, -13) [8]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The operating production capacity of float glass has remained stable. Yesterday, the average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas decreased to 97% (-5%). The futures price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot purchases based on futures. It is expected that the glass factory will reduce inventory by 1.7 million heavy boxes this week. The main driver of the off-season market comes from the supply side. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the production capacity of glass factories using petroleum coke and natural gas processes has been in a loss state, and the probability of cold repair is increasing. It is believed that the probability of the realization of the supply contraction expectation in the far-month contracts may gradually increase. Strategically, it is recommended to go long on the January contracts at low prices on the single side and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash (spread -112, -13) [8]. 2.8 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market is currently in a stage where OPEC+ is accelerating production increases and the US is in a peak demand season. The market assesses that the excess pressure is relatively limited, but the US API inventory shows a significant accumulation of 7.128 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding expectations, and the monthly spread has started to cool recently. The expectation of tight supply in the US market will be alleviated. It is expected that the short-term rebound space of oil prices is limited, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds [10]. - **Methanol**: This week, the arrival volume was 310,300 (+55,700) tons, with an increase of 126,200 tons in Jiangsu and a decrease of 15,000 tons each in Guangdong and Fujian. Affected by the increase in the arrival volume, the inventory in East China ports increased by 61,000 tons, and that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. Currently, the port inventory has reached the highest level since April but is still at a historical low for the same period. The factory inventory only increased by 4,600 tons. Although the spot trading volume has declined, the production enterprise's operating rate has also decreased. The "anti-involution" has no direct impact on the methanol industry chain for the time being, but the rebound in coal prices and the disappearance of pessimistic sentiment can provide some support for methanol futures [10]. 2.9 Chemical Futures - **Polyolefins**: Although OPEC+ has increased production, tariffs and geopolitical factors have supported the rebound of crude oil prices. This week, the spot trading has been sluggish, and the production enterprise's inventory has increased, with PE increasing by 12.5% and PP increasing by 2%. The social inventory has also increased, with PE increasing by 2.1% and PP increasing by 3.2%. In previous years, the inventory decreased during the same period, but this year it has continued to increase since June, indicating an oversupply situation. Recently, there have been concentrated production cuts in coal mines and new energy metals, triggering expectations of a new round of supply-side reforms, but it is difficult to have a substantial positive impact on polyolefins in the short term, and the price will continue to decline from July to August [10]. 2.10 Agricultural Futures - **Cotton**: In terms of supply, multiple regiments in Xinjiang have been affected by hail, and the damage to cotton fields varies. The weather theme has boosted the cotton price to run strongly. In terms of demand, terminal orders are mainly small and scattered, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. Some enterprises have started to take high-temperature holidays or reduce production capacity due to sales pressure and high temperatures. In terms of inventory, the decline rate of the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June has slowed down compared with last month, but the year-on-year decline in Xinjiang's cotton inventory has increased. Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the end of this year still strongly supports the futures price. It is recommended to continue to hold the previous long positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the rubber price has oscillated and rebounded. However, the automobile market has entered the traditional off-season, and tire enterprises still face inventory reduction pressure, so the demand expectation is not positive. The production in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has increased smoothly during the peak season, the weather conditions in the producing areas are normal, and the negative impact of climate change on rubber tapping operations has gradually weakened. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market has continued to decline. The rubber fundamentals continue to show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, which may limit the upside of the rubber price [10].