Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly influence the independence of the Fed and its policy direction, impacting market expectations and economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Profiles - Waller is viewed as a strong candidate due to his familiarity with the Fed and strong economic forecasting abilities, making him a suitable choice [4]. - Waller is characterized as hawkish and relatively conservative, indicating a preference for tighter monetary policy [6]. - The market perceives Waller's potential appointment as a positive for dollar assets, with reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [15]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If Waller is appointed, the market is likely to interpret this as a sign of Fed independence, which would be bullish for dollar assets and diminish rate cut expectations [15]. - Should Washington be appointed instead, the market reaction would be similar to Waller's, but with slightly less intensity [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical lessons, such as Nixon's pressure on Burns, highlight the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence to avoid adverse economic consequences [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will boost the precious metal prices, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. Investors should watch for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold them cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4000 and 4150, with support moving down to the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 48 and 50 - 50.5, with support at 46 and strong support at 44 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On Tuesday, precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend. Global trade easing and the alleviation of silver spot liquidity squeeze affected the market. Trump's intervention in the Fed enhanced gold's investment appeal. The surrounding US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks rose, European stocks were mixed, Bitcoin pulled back, the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index adjusted significantly, and crude oil fell. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3968.1 per ounce, down 1.28%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.14 per ounce, up 0.78%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 901.38 yuan per gram, down 4.2%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11049 yuan per kilogram, down 3.32% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings Interest rate cut expectations fluctuated slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October was 0.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 99.5%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 8%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 91.6%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 0.4%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 3.8%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 48.1%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 47.9%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.94 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 131.22 tons to 15209.57 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 9.8 tons to 657.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus In terms of data, focus on the preliminary value of US Q3 GDP on Thursday and US September PCE data on Friday. For events, pay attention to the Fed FOMC's interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 02:30, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 21:15 on Thursday. Also, watch the APEC leaders' summit in South Korea, Trump's visits to Japan (until October 29) and South Korea [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Tables - **Price Table**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 901.38 yuan per gram, down 3.51%; SGX gold TD was at 896.69 yuan per gram, down 3.61%; CME gold main contract was at $3968.1 per ounce, down 0.72%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11049 yuan per kilogram, down 3.03%; SGX silver TD was at 10996 yuan per kilogram, down 3.08%; CME silver main contract was at $47.14 per ounce, up 0.66%. SHFE - TD gold was at 4.69 yuan per gram, up 21.82%; SHFE - TD silver was at 53 yuan per kilogram, up 226.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 84.1769, down 1.38% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1196.0785 tons, down 0.6%. SHFE gold position was 175916 lots, down 2.71%; SPDR gold position was 1038.92 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 657.427 tons, up 1.51%; CME silver inventory was 15180.4568 tons, down 0.91%; SGX silver inventory was 905.235 tons, down 13.84%. SHFE silver position was 321876 lots, down 5.8%; SLV silver position was 15209.570998 tons, down 0.86% [16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary The US dollar index was at 98.7245, down 0.09%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.0963, down 0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 47706.37 points, up 0.34%. WTI crude oil spot was at $60.15 per barrel, down 1.89%. LmeS copper 03 was at $11029.5 per ton, up 0.26%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 3.99%, down 0.5%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 1.71%, down 1.16%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, down 1.89% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of reduced risk appetite, a strong dollar, and technical selling triggered by algorithmic trading [3][4][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Drop - Decreased risk appetite due to improved geopolitical signals from the US-China interactions and potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A strong rebound in the dollar index, driven by expectations of adjustments in Japan's yield curve control, which increased the cost of holding gold priced in dollars [4]. - Technical selling pressure as gold prices surged from $2,624 to $4,381 in 2025, prompting algorithmic trading to trigger sell-offs once the price fell below the critical support level of $1,900 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Different Stakeholders - For consumers looking to buy gold jewelry, the price drop presents an opportunity, with prices at around 1,198 RMB per gram, down from 1,245 RMB, allowing for potential savings [6]. - Investors holding gold ETFs or paper gold should remain calm and not panic sell, as the market may stabilize [6]. - For those considering buying physical gold bars, a phased approach is recommended, with suggested entry points at $1,880 and $1,850 per ounce to mitigate risks [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests continued pressure on gold prices due to geopolitical factors and a strong dollar, with potential dips to $1,850 [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the future could enhance gold's attractiveness as an investment [9]. Group 4: Institutional Price Targets - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan suggests extreme scenarios could push prices to $5,055 [10]. - Citigroup indicates that as long as global central bank purchases exceed 1,000 tons annually, gold prices will steadily rise above $2,200 [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - For consumers needing gold jewelry, it is advisable to observe the market for two weeks and consider buying if prices fall below 1,180 RMB per gram [11]. - Investors in gold bars should adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy, buying in increments as prices decline [11]. - For paper gold or ETFs, setting a stop-loss at $1,880 is recommended, but panic selling is discouraged [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market waits for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, while silver prices slightly recovered. There is still support from easing expectations, but gold prices face pressure due to optimistic trade negotiations. The downward pressure on gold prices persists with the return of optimistic trade expectations. The impact of the Fed's meeting on prices may be short - term [4][6]. - Gold: Despite the end of the decline in gold prices before the Fed's decision, the pressure from trade optimism remains. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 1 yuan/gram. The Fed's meeting may bring back the support of easing, but the impact time is short [4]. - Silver: Silver prices follow gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has slightly expanded to 420 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remains strong. Silver prices may be supported by the Fed's decision, but the impact is short - term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.01 basis points to 3.976%, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.73, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3968.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market waited for the Fed's decision. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and there are both support from easing expectations and pressure from trade optimism [4]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 3.24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 87,015 kilograms and remain unchanged, which is bearish [5]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and silver prices are slightly recovering. Silver is stronger than gold under the current situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,784 kilograms to 657,427 kilograms, which is bullish [7]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 08:30, Australia's Q3 CPI; throughout the day, the Hong Kong stock market is closed; time to be determined, US President Trump visits South Korea and attends the APEC leaders' summit; at 12:05, New Zealand's central bank governor Hawkesby talks about central bank independence; at 20:30 (possibly), the US September merchandise trade balance; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces the interest rate decision; at 22:00, the US September pending home sales index; after the European stock market closes, Deutsche Bank releases its earnings report; at 02:00 the next day, the Fed releases the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement; at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Powell holds a regular press conference [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic for gold is that after Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality continues, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include both bullish factors such as global turmoil, increased expectation of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and bearish factors such as the end of interest rate cuts and the improvement of economic expectations [14][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.25% to 169,983, the short position decreased by 2.02% to 65,686, and the net position increased by 1.73% to 104,297 on October 28 compared to October 27. The SPDR gold ETF position continues to decrease [30][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7.41% to 322,389, the short position decreased by 0.46% to 251,213, and the net position decreased by 25.71% to 71,176 on October 28 compared to October 27. The silver ETF position continues to decrease but is higher than the same period in the past two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stop falling and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [31][37][40].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices continued to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.34% to 47,706.37 points, the S&P 500 up 0.23% to 6,890.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite leading with a 0.8% increase to 23,827.49 points, all reaching new highs based on previous records [1] - Nvidia, referred to as the "global stock king," saw a notable performance with its stock price rising 4.98% to $201.03, bringing its total market capitalization close to $4.9 trillion, continuing to drive momentum in the tech sector [1] Chinese Stocks Performance - The performance of popular Chinese stocks diverged from the broader U.S. market, with most stocks closing lower, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 1.23% [2] - Notable declines included Alibaba, Ctrip, Baidu, Li Auto, and Manbang, all dropping over 1%, while New Oriental's decline exceeded 3%. In contrast, Futu surged over 3% and XPeng rose over 1%, marking them as rare gainers [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The global financial market is currently experiencing a "super central bank week," with the highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting taking place from October 28 to 29, where a rate decision is expected to be announced [2] - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%—4% [2] - President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, labeling him as "incompetent," and indicated that Powell's term would end in May next year, suggesting a change in leadership [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is set to present a list of potential candidates for the new Fed chair to Trump after Thanksgiving, with the candidate pool narrowed down to five individuals [3] - Current economic analysis suggests a stable inflation environment, with expectations for further rate cuts this year, as the overall economic conditions reflect "moderate inflation + weakening employment" [3]

Market Performance - The US stock market continued its upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.34% to 47,706.37 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.23% to 6,890.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite leading with a 0.8% gain to 23,827.49 points, all reaching new highs based on previous records [1] - Nvidia, referred to as the "global stock king," saw a notable performance with its stock price increasing by 4.98% to $201.03, bringing its total market capitalization close to $4.9 trillion, thereby providing upward momentum for the tech sector [1] Chinese Stocks Performance - The performance of popular Chinese stocks diverged from the broader US market, with most stocks closing lower, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling by 1.23% [2] - Notable declines included Alibaba, Ctrip, Baidu, Li Auto, and Manbang, all dropping over 1%, while New Oriental's decline exceeded 3%. In contrast, Futu surged over 3% and XPeng rose over 1%, marking them as rare gainers [2] Federal Reserve Meeting - The global financial market is currently experiencing a "super central bank week," with the highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting commencing on October 28, 2023, and the interest rate decision expected to be announced on October 29 [2] - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%—4% [2] Political Commentary - President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, labeling him as "incompetent" and indicating that Powell's term will end in May next year, suggesting a change in leadership [3] - Trump mentioned that a list of potential candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman would be submitted by Treasury Secretary Basant after Thanksgiving, with the candidate pool narrowed down to five individuals [3] Economic Analysis - According to a recent report by CITIC Securities, the overall inflation situation in the US appears stable, with September CPI coming in below expectations and a mild increase in prices for import-sensitive consumer goods, while service inflation has cooled [3] - The current environment of "moderate inflation + weakening employment" is expected to reinforce rate cut expectations, with predictions of two more rate cuts (each by 25 basis points) within the year [3]

Market Performance - US stock markets reached historical highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices both rising over 1% [1] - Major tech stocks, including Tesla, Google, and Nvidia, saw significant gains, with Tesla increasing by over 4% [1] - Chinese concept stocks also experienced a majority increase, particularly in the new energy sector, with Daqo New Energy rising over 14% [1][3] Sector Analysis - The US solar and new energy indices rose by 8.46% and 8.22%, respectively, indicating strong performance in the renewable energy sector [2] - The autonomous driving and new energy vehicle indices also showed positive growth, with increases of 3.33% and 3.12% [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell below the $4000 mark, with the latest spot price reported at $3986.28 per ounce, reflecting a decline of over 2% [5] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index dropped nearly 4%, with several mining stocks declining over 5% [5] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as investors shifted towards equities and high-yield assets [8] - There is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which is seen as a factor contributing to the strength of the stock market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of easing geopolitical risks, profit-taking by bullish investors, and short-term liquidity tightening, leading to a significant drop in prices from recent highs [1][2] Factors Contributing to Gold Price Correction - **Macroeconomic Environment Changes**: The easing of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, reduced trade tensions, and lower expectations of geopolitical conflicts have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - **Technical Overbought Conditions**: The market experienced technical selling pressure due to overbought conditions, with implied volatility of gold options nearing levels seen in late April, indicating excessive market sentiment and crowded trading [2] - **Dollar and U.S. Treasury Yield Movements**: A slight increase in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, alongside a sell-off in U.S. debt, reflects an enhanced market risk appetite, which has not provided effective support for gold prices despite a minor decline in the dollar index [2] Future Market Outlook - **Short-term Predictions**: Some institutions have begun to lower their gold price forecasts, with expectations that prices may drop to $3,500 per ounce by the end of next year, while others predict a decline to $3,800 in the next three months [3] - **Long-term Support Factors**: The trends of "de-dollarization" and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to provide underlying support for precious metals. The interplay between Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment will be crucial for price volatility [3] - **Historical Context**: Historical trends indicate that expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks leading to dollar weakness, and persistent government deficits are factors that could support a long-term increase in gold demand as an alternative asset [3] Investment Strategy - **Market Positioning**: Investors are advised to view the current price correction as a potential opportunity for positioning, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve signals, geopolitical developments, and alternative economic indicators [4] - **Cautious Approach**: A cautious bullish strategy is recommended, emphasizing strict position management to navigate volatility risks amid information scarcity [4]