Core Insights - The market's hope for a recovery in tech stocks was pinned on Nvidia's earnings report, but despite a strong performance, selling pressure continued in the tech sector, with funds shifting towards more defensive areas like healthcare [2][3] Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia reported a remarkable quarterly revenue growth of 65% year-over-year, marking a return to acceleration for the first time in two years, with data center revenue increasing by 66% [3] - Despite the strong earnings, concerns about an "AI bubble" persisted, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks rather than a rebound [3][4] - Institutional investors have been reducing their tech positions, with funds flowing into defensive sectors, particularly healthcare [2][3] Group 2: Concerns Over AI Investment Returns - There are growing worries about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain capital expenditures [4][5] - The need for substantial capital investment in AI raises questions about the industry's ability to generate sufficient returns, with estimates suggesting a need for $650 billion in annual cash flow by 2030 to achieve a 10% return on cumulative capital [5][6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Market Sentiment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased, which poses a risk to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [6][7] - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years [6][7] - Concerns about inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields are also affecting market sentiment, with a significant portion of U.S. debt concentrated in the short-term [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fluctuated significantly, leading to a decline in risk assets and a slight strengthening of the US dollar. The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with major developed market indices also declining, particularly the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng [2][33] - The US labor market showed improvement in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% due to a higher labor participation rate. The government announced that October's non-farm data would not be released, with some data to be combined with November's figures in December [3][4][6] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, causing significant volatility in interest rate cut expectations. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated that many officials preferred to maintain rates, leading to a 20 percentage point drop in market expectations for a rate cut to 30%. However, comments from New York Fed President Williams suggested potential adjustments, causing expectations to rise to 71% [7][9] Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, supported by resilient technology investments and stable consumer spending. AI investments are projected to remain strong, driven by commitments from countries like Japan and South Korea to invest in US AI infrastructure [12][17] - The labor market is anticipated to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with the unemployment rate expected to hover around 4.5% throughout 2026. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to diminish in the second half of the year, contributing to a more favorable economic outlook [17][16] Market Performance - The US stock market is currently in a phase of consolidation following previous high valuations, with limited further downside potential. Sectors with low valuations and solid earnings support, such as healthcare and utilities, are expected to show resilience [2][33] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 28.09, slightly below the past ten-year average plus one standard deviation, indicating a relatively high valuation level. The index's equity-to-bond ratio is at 0.87, above the historical average minus one standard deviation [43][39] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is likely to continue driving growth, with major tech companies expected to maintain high capital expenditure growth rates. This is supported by favorable policies and a stable economic environment [12][28] - The healthcare and consumer sectors are projected to remain resilient amid changing market conditions, with potential for growth driven by stable consumer spending and investment in technology [2][12]

廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 股指期货日报 2025年11月24日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 降息预期升温带动股指高开，中小盘超调有所修复 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，大盘股指收跌，中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2378.87亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美联储"三把手"放鸽，称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期12月降息概率盘中突破70%。威廉姆斯在 演讲中表示，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减轻。他认 为货币政策目前处于温和紧缩状态，但限制性程度低于近期行动之前的水平。 2.日媒称中方拒绝明年1月中日韩首脑会谈，外交部回应表示中日韩三方并没有就第十次中日韩领导人会议的 会期达成共识。 核心观点 周末美联储三把手放鸽，强调就业下行风险，提振市场降息预期，今日股指集体高开。不过由于当前中日紧 张关系尚未缓和，叠加资金止盈意愿增强，股指高开后随即回落转跌。午后开盘集体拉升，中小盘股指翻 红，表现较强，中日风波影响下军工板块领涨，两市成交额再度缩量至1.7万亿元左右。我们认为今日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of the current overseas market's macro headwinds is the technology sector, with risks shifting from the abstract "AI bubble" to more specific concerns such as AI investment sustainability, debt - financing, and return on investment [34]. - The US economic fundamentals maintain a certain level of resilience. Employment is weak but not rapidly deteriorating. Manufacturing shows resilience due to potential interest - rate cuts and low inventory levels. The financial indicators at the US stock index level do not indicate systemic risks [97]. - For the short - term, the market should be moderately optimistic but avoid core technology stocks in the medium - term. In the equity market, attention should be paid to domestic consumption, public utilities, raw materials, medical, and financial sectors, and within the technology sector, focus on companies with realized performance. In the commodity market, pay attention to the industry logic and the allocation window for precious metals with less impact from macro - narratives [97]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance and Underlying Logic - Since November, the global market has been affected by geopolitical, macro, and industrial factors. The technology sector leads the Risk - on sentiment, while the equity market turns defensive. There is a lack of effective hedging assets, and the year - end market micro - liquidity is poor [2]. - The volatility in the overseas market stems from three key points: the state of the economic fundamentals, short - term (December) and long - term (2026) interest - rate cut expectations, and concerns about the sustainability, debt - financing, and return on investment of AI [4]. 2. Economic Fundamentals 2.1 US Economic Fundamentals - The September non - farm payroll data exceeded market expectations. The labor supply increased, the unemployment rate rebounded slightly, and the wage growth rate rebounded year - on - year. The employment situation remained weak but did not deteriorate rapidly, maintaining a "low - layoff, low - hiring" state [5][7]. - Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing survey indicators improved, indicating some resilience in the manufacturing sector. However, the consumer confidence index dropped significantly, and the daily - frequency consumer spending trend was weak, suggesting weak consumer sentiment and consumption momentum [8][10][12]. - Inventories declined rapidly from the third to the fourth quarter, and the inventory - to - sales ratios decreased. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing and wholesale inventories reached new lows, and the new order - to - inventory ratio was high, providing potential support for commodity prices [15]. 2.2 Non - US Economies - The economic surprise indices of China, the US, and the Eurozone showed that Chinese data dropped significantly, the Eurozone's economic data improved slightly, and US data was distorted due to missing information. The Eurozone's economic momentum slowed down, with a weak manufacturing sector but high service - sector sentiment. Chinese macro - economic indicators declined across the board in consumption, investment, and production [16][18][20]. - The outlook for major economies at the end of 2026 shows that the US real GDP year - on - year growth rate will be 1.8%, remaining basically the same as this year, while the growth rates of China, the Eurozone, and Japan will be lower than this year [22]. 3. Monetary Policy - The Fed's attitude has become more cautious since the September FOMC meeting. The probability of a December interest - rate cut has rebounded to 63%, but the expected benchmark interest rate at the end of next year remains at 3.00 - 3.25%, with limited change. The "hawkish" pricing is mainly reflected in the December FOMC meeting, and there is still an expected 75bp of interest - rate cuts next year [25][26]. - Interest - rate cut expectations are more of a background factor rather than the core driver of the recent global market decline. The stability of US Treasury yields and the divergence between bond and equity volatilities indicate that the risks do not originate from the same source [29]. 4. "AI Bubble" and Related Risks - The high - rating corporate bond issuance scale in 2025 has rapidly increased, exceeding the 2021 historical high, with software, semiconductor, and internet companies accounting for the majority. Since September, leading technology companies have increased their bond issuance, shifting their capital expenditure from self - owned funds to debt financing [30]. - At the US stock index level, the market's health has some flaws, but the fundamentals of the US stock market are still relatively healthy. Comparing with the "dot - com bubble" in terms of financial indicators, the current debt - to - asset and debt - to - profit ratios at the index level are stable, and the ROIC - WACC difference has not reached a turning point, which can be compared to the 1997 period [35][46]. - The storm center is the leading technology companies. The CAPEX/operating cash flow of the "Magnificent Seven" in the current AI wave has reached a level comparable to that of representative companies in 1997. Among them, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle have a significantly higher ratio, while Nvidia and Apple have relatively lower ratios and healthier financial indicators [50][54]. - Leading technology companies issued over $200 billion in bonds in 2025 for AI infrastructure investment. The average annual maturing debt in the next five years is $71 billion, with a cumulative scale of $355 billion. The debt refinancing demand of some companies is relatively rigid [59]. - Since the second half of 2025, the "Magnificent Seven" companies have successively experienced ROIC inflection points, indicating that investment income is starting to lag behind investment costs. The revenue growth rate of leading technology companies has also begun to slow down, similar to the situation between 1996 - 1997 during the "dot - com bubble" [60][67]. 5. Analysis of the Hong Kong Stock Market - The adjustment of the Hong Kong stock market since November is mainly due to the drag of "liquidity + sentiment" on valuation. The fundamentals of the molecular end (earnings) are still strong, while the denominator end (liquidity and risk preference) is under pressure from factors such as domestic and overseas liquidity disturbances and the "AI bubble" discussion in the US [76]. - The domestic liquidity pressure is expected to ease gradually in early 2026. The Hong Kong stock market's technical indicators have shown some safety margins, but the market risk preference is still fragile. The reversal of other factors may be challenging in the short term, but the improvement of domestic liquidity in early 2026 may lead to a spring rally [88]. - In the short term, it is recommended to focus on consumer sectors that have underperformed this year or defensive sectors such as banks and telecommunications. In the medium term, a barbell strategy should be adopted for Chinese - funded stocks, focusing on the non - ferrous metals sector, technology themes (AI and innovative drugs), and anti - involution (industry concentration increase and leading company profit improvement) [92].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic disturbances last week primarily revolved around the possibility of interest rate cuts, with the market initially pricing in a higher likelihood of no cuts in December, but later data from the labor market raised expectations for potential cuts [2][6] - Precious metals experienced a pullback, with COMEX gold down 0.53% and silver down 1.47%, while copper prices also saw fluctuations, with COMEX copper down 1.07% [4][6] - The market for copper showed signs of increased downstream purchasing after a price correction, although overall consumption remained lukewarm, with expectations for next year's supply and demand dynamics influencing current pricing [10][55] Group 2 - The gold and silver markets entered an adjustment phase, with prices fluctuating in response to changing interest rate expectations, particularly after comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated potential for rate cuts [8][28] - COMEX copper prices exhibited a volatile pattern, maintaining a contango structure, with significant inventory levels indicating ongoing supply dynamics that may affect future pricing strategies [10][11] - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index showed a slight decline, with market participants awaiting the results of year-end negotiations that could influence future pricing and demand [16][19] Group 3 - The overall inventory levels for precious metals decreased, with COMEX gold inventory down approximately 620,000 ounces and COMEX silver inventory down about 1,497,000 ounces [43] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.4 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 39 tons, indicating shifting investor sentiment in the precious metals market [48] - The copper market is expected to maintain resilience through the end of the year, with supply-demand dynamics remaining favorable despite current price fluctuations [55]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate, dropping below $4040 per ounce before a slight recovery, closing at $4052.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.67% [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 0.25%, while the Gold Stock ETF remained flat and the Nonferrous Metals ETF fell by 0.67% [1] - The U.S. and Ukraine held talks regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which was described as "significantly effective" [1] Group 2 - The New York Fed President John Williams characterized the current policy as "moderately restrictive" and indicated potential for interest rate cuts in the near future, despite other Fed officials maintaining a hawkish stance [1] - The divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts is increasing, with the dollar index exerting pressure on precious metals, although expectations for rate cuts limit the downside for these metals [1] - The market is awaiting important economic data, such as the U.S. November PMI, to provide direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to fluctuate due to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, with COMEX gold futures dropping 0.67% to $4052.3 per ounce as of the close of A-shares [1] Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs show mixed performance: 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.25%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) remained flat, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) decreased by 0.67% [1] Geopolitical Developments - On November 23, the U.S. White House announced a joint statement indicating significant progress in talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President John Williams described the current policy as "moderately restrictive" and indicated potential room for interest rate cuts in the near future, while other Fed officials maintain a hawkish stance, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocating for keeping the policy rate unchanged [1] Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures analysis highlights increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with the high dollar index putting pressure on precious metals; however, expectations for rate cuts limit the downside potential for precious metals as the market awaits key economic data such as the November PMI from the U.S. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment is weak, LME inventory is gradually recovering, and the domestic demand side is in the off - season. Zinc prices are under pressure and may remain weakly consolidated in the short term. Considering the continuous decline of TC, the support from the raw material end is strong, and there is a certain production cut expectation for smelters in the future. It is expected that the downside space of zinc prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. Previous short positions can consider step - by - step stop - profit, and wait for opportunities to participate in long positions after the callback [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.22% to 22,370 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 0.13% to 22,395 yuan/ton; London zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 0.75% to 2,992 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 TC Continues to Decline, Pay Attention to Ingot - End Start - up 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 21, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 274,200 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in US dollars before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average) [30][32]. - As of November 20, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,288 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [39]. - Domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. On November 21, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [40][43]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated and declined, and TC decreased. The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 20, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,428 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of raw material stockpiling and the continuous decline of processing fees, it is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [44][49]. - The import profit window of refined zinc was closed. As of November 21, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,164.59 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [50][54]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - up Declines 3.3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 57.17%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and the black prices were always low, so the downstream's willingness to stock up was low. Some galvanizing enterprises reduced their start - up to avoid excessive finished product inventory [60][62]. - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices declined, and galvanizing enterprises picked up goods at the spot price more frequently, resulting in an obvious accumulation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises also increased. Due to poor demand and general downstream purchases, the finished product inventory accumulated [63][65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Slight Fluctuation in Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - up 3.4.1 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.22% to 23,115 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy dropped by 0.21% to 23,665 yuan/ton [71][73]. - The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.72 percentage points to 51.02%. The resumption of production of some enterprises during the week drove a slight increase in start - up. However, the terminal market was generally dull, and it is expected that the start - up may decline in the future [74][76]. - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led alloy factories to replenish inventory at low prices, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, resulting in a slight reduction of finished product inventory [77][79]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Slight Increase in Zinc Oxide Start - up 3.5.1 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained flat compared with the previous period. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton [85]. - The start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.94 percentage points to 57.25%. The increase in production of some enterprises drove an increase in start - up. However, from the current demand side, the demand for rubber - grade and electronic - grade products slowed down, and it is expected that the start - up will be difficult to increase significantly in the future [86][88]. - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased. Some raw material prices were still high, and enterprises maintained just - in - time purchases, resulting in a slight fluctuation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises slightly decreased. The accelerated delivery rhythm of some terminal customers drove the reduction of finished product inventory, but there are still certain risks on the demand side in the future [89][91]. 3.6 Purchase at Low Prices, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory 3.6.1 Inventory - As of November 20, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 144,500 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decline in zinc ingot social inventory. As of November 20, the inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous period [97][99]. - As of November 21, the SHFE inventory was 100,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 47,300 tons, and the inventory continued to increase [100][102]. 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in September 2025, the production was 600,000 tons, the import volume was 22,700 tons, the export volume was 2,500 tons, the apparent consumption was 620,000 tons, the actual consumption was 623,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was - 2,000 tons [108].

Core Viewpoint - The market remains cautious as Federal Reserve officials emphasize maintaining current policies, providing support for the US dollar, while expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, temporarily boosting gold prices before a pullback [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price initially rose to $4075 but quickly retreated to around $4045, indicating a lack of sustained buying momentum [1][2] - The US dollar maintains a strong position, supported by a generally hawkish tone from most officials, despite a slight slowdown in momentum due to dovish remarks from New York Fed President Williams [2][3] - Market participants are awaiting the upcoming US economic data, particularly the delayed September PPI and retail sales figures, which are expected to significantly influence market direction [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a PPI increase of 0.3% and retail sales growth of 0.4% for September, with stronger data potentially suppressing rate cut expectations and supporting the dollar [2][4] - The upcoming data is critical, as it could either reinforce or undermine the current market sentiment regarding interest rates and gold prices [3][4] Group 3: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term gold price action is characterized by a "high followed by resistance and subsequent consolidation," with key support levels at $4045 to $4020 [2] - If the economic data is weak, gold may test resistance levels above $4075 and $4100 [2]

亚洲早盘时段，金价一度尝试突破至4075美元，但上方缺乏持续买盘支持，随后逐步走低，最终在4045 美元附近获得支撑。盘面表现说明：即便降息预期有所升温，市场在关键数据公布前仍不愿意提前建立 多头；部分偏鹰言论对金价上行仍具压制；同时，美元在高位整理，使黄金短线反弹空间受到限制。 美元指数继续在强势区域内整理。尽管威廉姆斯的温和表态短线削弱了美元的上行动能，但大部分官员 的基调仍偏稳甚至略偏鹰，为美元提供支撑。整体结构并未明显改变，市场依旧将方向性的判断交给即 将公布的美国数据。欧元和英镑等主要货币对对美元表现偏被动，延续承压走势。 由于此前政府停摆影响数据发布时间，此次PPI和零售销售的参考价值被进一步放大。市场预期：PPI环 比+0.3%，零售销售环比+0.4%。若通胀数据强于预期，或重新压制降息讨论、推升美元，对黄金构成 压力；若数据偏弱，则有望强化黄金在4045上方的企稳走势，并为其重新冲击4075—4100区间创造条 件。 周一亚洲交易时段整体延续偏谨慎氛围。近期多位美联储官员在讲话中强调目前的政策设置仍然适合现 阶段经济，使美元保持一定韧性；与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯略显温和的发言又推动市场重 ...