Inflation Trends - September CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3%, while month-on-month growth slightly decreased to 0.3%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3%, with a month-on-month decline as well[4] - Energy inflation rose, with the CPI energy component year-on-year growth increasing to 2.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[10] Commodity and Service Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth remained stable at 1.5%, with a slight month-on-month decline[11] - Used car prices showed a slowdown in growth, indicating a lack of sustained upward momentum in future automotive inflation[11] - Core service year-on-year growth decreased to 3.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with transportation services also declining by 1 percentage point to 2.5%[16] Economic Outlook - The expectation for two more interest rate cuts within the year has been reinforced following the inflation data release[20] - The overall inflation performance is moderate, lacking significant upward momentum, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates[20] - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in deposit rates by small and medium-sized banks reflect a response to ongoing pressure on net interest margins and the need for cost control in a competitive banking environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Since October, several small and medium-sized banks have announced reductions in deposit rates, particularly for long-term deposits, following similar moves by large banks [1][4]. - The adjustments include the cancellation of automatic renewal for notice deposits, aimed at optimizing the liability structure and reducing funding costs [2][3]. - Some banks have reduced three-year and five-year deposit rates by as much as 80 basis points, indicating a significant shift in the market [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Adjustments - The adjustments are driven by three main factors: cost control needs, liquidity management, and customer structure optimization [2][3]. - Regulatory pressures have also played a role, as authorities seek to curb excessive competition in deposit pricing and ensure a stable financial market [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing adjustments may lead to a potential easing of net interest margin pressures, especially if further interest rate cuts occur [7][9]. - However, long-term challenges remain, including limited room for further reductions in deposit rates and continued downward pressure on asset yields [9][10]. - The banking sector may need to diversify its strategies, focusing on business transformation and non-interest income expansion to maintain profitability [9][10].

（文章来源：新华财经） 蒙特利尔银行资本市场分析师伊恩·林根指出，鉴于美国政府停摆仍在持续，此次9月CPI数据发布基本 上也巩固了12月降息的预期。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is set to be released, with expectations for core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and remain at 3.1% year-on-year, making it a crucial indicator ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting in late October [1] - If inflation continues to cool, market expectations for two rate cuts this year may increase; conversely, a higher-than-expected CPI could lead to significant short-term volatility and reignite rate hike bets [1][2] - Gold prices fell below $4100 during European trading, influenced by a rebound in the dollar, improved risk appetite, and a decrease in physical demand following India's festival season; however, medium-term support for gold remains due to U.S. fiscal deadlock and global geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has maintained a high level around 99, benefiting from capital inflows and safe-haven buying ahead of the CPI data release; the euro is consolidating around 1.16, while the pound has struggled to break above 1.33 despite a brief rebound [2] - U.S. stock futures showed moderate gains, with the Dow Jones futures up approximately 0.16% and the S&P 500 futures rising by 0.26%, driven by positive earnings expectations, particularly in tech stocks like Intel [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now the second-longest in history, continues to pose risks, while geopolitical tensions globally are affecting market sentiment; investors are advised to closely monitor the CPI release and subsequent Federal Reserve comments for insights into risk appetite [2][3]

Core Insights - The dollar index is stabilizing above the 99 mark, while gold prices are trading at $4066.70 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.45% [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. September CPI data, with expectations for the core inflation rate to remain at 3.1% [1][4] - Investors are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, with potential implications for gold prices depending on the inflation data [1] Market Analysis - Gold prices have increased approximately 57% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, rate cut expectations, and ongoing central bank purchases [4] - Recent geopolitical risks have spurred safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a rebound after two days of decline [3] - The focus is on the U.S. CPI report, which is expected to provide clear inflation signals ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [4] Technical Analysis - The daily K-line for gold shows a small bullish star, indicating a pause after two consecutive bearish days, suggesting a potential for further adjustments [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4120 and $4150, with the possibility of a bullish trend if prices remain near $4150 [5] - The MACD indicator suggests further correction is needed, indicating a cautious outlook for the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices fell below $4100 per ounce, with a decline exceeding 1.00%, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment towards gold and related assets [1] Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.49% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) remaining flat, while the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.15% [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. September CPI data is a focal point for the market, with expectations for an increase from 2.9% to 3.1%, while core CPI is anticipated to remain at 3.1% [1] - Despite employment data being a primary focus for the Federal Reserve, CPI data could lead to significant market fluctuations, especially after a three-week data vacuum [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is nearly 100%, suggesting that current data may not influence this decision [1] - Lower-than-expected CPI data could further stimulate rate cut expectations for the end of the year into mid-next year, potentially benefiting gold prices by weakening the dollar [1] Long-term Outlook on Gold - Huatai Securities emphasizes that gold remains the most suitable safe-haven asset, with consensus on the long-term allocation value of gold-related assets unchanged [1] - The current short-term decline in gold prices does not affect the long-term bullish outlook, and the pullback may present an opportunity for increased positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing dramatic fluctuations in 2025, with prices soaring to historical highs before a significant drop, raising questions about the sustainability of the silver shortage and its potential to outperform gold [1][5]. Financial Drivers - Expectations of interest rate cuts and the extreme deviation of the gold-silver ratio are key financial drivers for silver prices. The market anticipates a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a cumulative 50 basis points by December, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver [1][2]. - The gold-silver ratio reached over 100 in April 2025, indicating that silver was undervalued relative to gold, with a 70% probability of a price correction within 4-6 months when the ratio exceeds 80 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with a projected global silver demand of 8,800 tons in 2025 due to a supply-demand gap [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained, with 70% of silver sourced from copper and lead-zinc mines, and potential legislative changes in Mexico could further limit silver exports, exacerbating the supply shortage [4]. Market Sentiment and Technical Adjustments - Recent price corrections are attributed to market sentiment and profit-taking after a rapid price increase, with speculative positions reaching near historical danger levels [5][6]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for silver, contributing to price volatility [6]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term fundamentals for silver remain strong, with ongoing industrial demand and a tight supply situation expected to persist at least until mid-2026 [7][8]. - Predictions indicate that silver prices could rise significantly, with estimates suggesting potential increases of 15%-20% in the near term, outperforming gold [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Global gold prices rebounded over 1% on October 24 due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold prices rose by 1% to $4,132.76 per ounce, while December gold futures increased by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1] - Earlier in the week, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,381.21 per ounce before experiencing the largest single-day drop in five years, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [1][3] Group 2: Market Influences - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include global tensions, increased economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant net purchases of gold by central banks [3] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as an opportunity for new buying, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report, with expectations that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, which will be a key reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, with potential for another cut in December [5] Group 4: Future Projections - JPMorgan forecasts that due to strong investment demand and high levels of net gold purchases by central banks (estimated at 566 tons per quarter next year), the average gold price could reach $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [5] - Other precious metals also saw price increases, with spot silver rising by 1.1% to $49.07 per ounce, platinum up by 0.5% to $1,629.44 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 0.4% to $1,453.90 per ounce [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short - term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4150, and the support is 4000; for silver, the resistance is 50 - 50.5, and the support is 47.5 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rebounded, European and American stock indices rose slightly, Bitcoin rebounded, and crude oil had a large increase. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4143.2 per ounce, up 1.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $48.65 per ounce, up 2.03%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 1.24% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations continued to cool slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 6.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 93.4%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 0.2%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 3.2%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 48.2%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 48.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1052.37 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 128.41 tons to 15469.2 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 28.3 tons to 663.4 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 57.4 tons to 1050.7 tons as of the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September CPI data, which was postponed due to the US government shutdown and is scheduled to be released tonight. In terms of events, this week is the quiet period before the Fed's October 31 FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 1.08%; SGX gold TD was at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 0.92%; CME gold main contract was at $4143.2 per ounce, up 0.65%. The SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11463 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72%; CME silver main contract was at $48.65 per ounce, up 0.98%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 2.14 yuan per gram, down 42.47%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 4 yuan per kilogram, down 50% [5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1211.7586 tons, down 0.02%; SHFE gold positions were 189131 lots, down 1.9%. SHFE silver inventory was 663.366 tons, down 4.09%; CME silver inventory was 15488.954 tons, down 0.61%; SGX silver inventory was 1050.675 tons, down 5.18%. SHFE silver positions were 377229 lots, down 2.33%; SLV silver positions were 15469.202584 tons, down 0.82% [8]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9332, up 0.05%; the US dollar against the RMB was at 7.125, down 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46734.61 points, up 0.31%. WTI crude oil spot was at $61.79 per barrel, up 5.62%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10817 per ton, up 1.49%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, up 1.01%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 1.71%, up 1.79%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 1.92% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data is critical, as a higher-than-expected reading could disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts and negatively impact the recent strong rebound in U.S. stock and bond markets since October [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in six months, reaching a low of 3.9%, indicating a significant rebound in Treasury prices despite the government shutdown delaying key economic data [1]. - The overall return of U.S. Treasuries in October is approximately 1.3%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since February, driven by safe-haven buying and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]. - If the September CPI data exceeds expectations, it could lead to a sharp rise in Treasury yields, negatively affecting global stock and bond markets [3][10]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions - Economists predict that the overall CPI for September will show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%, both indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [8]. - There is a prevailing concern that strong inflation data could undermine the market's confidence in further rate cuts, as indicated by various market strategists [10][11]. - The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but a significant rise in inflation could jeopardize these expectations [9]. Group 3: Impact on Equity Markets - The strong performance of major tech companies and the AI sector has driven a historic investment surge in U.S. equities, with indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI Global Index reaching new highs [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a critical component in equity valuation models, and a sustained decline below 4% could support a continued bull market in stocks, particularly in technology [3][4]. - If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could lead to a reassessment of risk asset valuations, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which are currently at historical highs [4][10].