Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PTA - PTA supply is under planned maintenance, demand is seasonally weakening, and the balance is gradually entering a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The supply - demand drive is average with a processing fee of around 300+. Short - term expectations are not bad, and attention should be paid to capital changes [5][57]. PX - PX supply - demand changes are minimal. Near - term imports are rising while demand is weakening, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Long - term expectations are favorable, and short - term valuations are not low. Attention should be paid to capital preferences [6]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - The cost of ethylene glycol has corrected, the expected import arrivals are not low, polyester is in a seasonal production cut, and the near - term faces seasonal inventory accumulation. After a short - term correction, the valuation is in a low - level range, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short term [7][137]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester - Polyester maintenance is gradually increasing, and the load is seasonally declining. As of January 16, the polyester load was around 88.3%, and the estimated loads for January and February are 88% and 83% respectively. Polyester cash flow has improved significantly, and the average inventory is around 12.9 days, with overall inventory pressure being low [8][14][38]. - Terminal new orders are average. Domestic demand has entered the pre - holiday off - season, while foreign demand is reported to have improved. As of January 15, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 70% (- 2%), 55% (- 1%), and 70% (+ 1%) respectively [9]. PTA - PTA device changes: New materials are under planned maintenance, Ineos' 1.25 - million - ton device is shut down until the end of March, Dushan No.3 has restarted, Dushan No.2 is planned to shut down at the end of the month, and YS's three sets of devices and Sichuan Energy Investment are under maintenance. The planned maintenance volume from January to February is not low [45]. - PTA inventory: As of January 16, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has increased by 40,000 tons to 2.045 million tons. The inventory in warehouses and ports has slightly decreased, while the inventory in PTA and polyester factories has increased. Currently, the PTA inventory pressure is not high [46]. - PTA balance sheet: From January to February, there is a slight seasonal inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee remains stable, and the short - term drive is average. Attention should be paid to capital changes, and after a correction, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish at low levels [57]. PX - PX device changes: The domestic PX load is 89.4%, and the Asian load is 80.6%. Jinling in China has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load as planned, and Fuhua has plans for maintenance and capacity expansion. In Asia, Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased its load, and a 190,000 - ton device in Israel has restarted [85]. - PX balance sheet: The near - term changes are minimal, and the PX supply - demand is in a loose balance. The PXN is around 330+ and the valuation has slightly weakened, with an unclear drive [89]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - MEG device changes: The domestic MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 80%. Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, and Sanjiang plans to reduce its load in February. The restart of Henan Energy has been postponed, and Yankuang has restarted. Overseas, two sets of devices of Taiwan Nan Ya are shut down, three sets of devices in Saudi Arabia are under maintenance, the Kuwaiti device is under maintenance for one month, an Iranian device is under maintenance, and a 360,000 - ton device of US Nan Ya is under maintenance [104][108][124]. - MEG inventory: As of January 19, the port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 795,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrival volume from January 19 - 25 is 205,000 tons, and the port inventory is expected to slightly increase. The raw material stocking days of polyester factories for ethylene glycol are 15.2 days (+ 0.6), and downstream stocking has steadily increased [132]. - MEG balance sheet: The near - term port arrival expectations are high, and it is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The drive is average, and it is expected to trade in a range [137].

王昌林表示，要坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。重点是要适应 需求升级的趋势，结合新一轮科技革命和产业变革的需要，将研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略 实施方案，为以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障，努力实现 供需互促、循环升级。 本报讯 记者马玲报道 "当前，我国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问 题。"1月20日，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在国新办新闻发布会上表示，当前，供给到了从"有没 有"到"好不好"的阶段，有的需求很大，但供给不能满足。针对这些问题，必须坚决贯彻落实中央经济 工作会议精神，扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多 由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 实体经济是我国经济发展的根基，王昌林表示，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国 家级并购基金，加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产 力。 "坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。"王昌林表示，重 点是要综合整 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - SC night session rose 0.91%, geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased, and more crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks; the demand for crude oil from the "Joint Declaration" member countries is expected to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026 and increase to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3] - Methanol night session rose 1.14%, domestic CTO/MTO start - up decreased slightly, overall coastal methanol inventory declined slightly, and it is short - term bullish while paying attention to the situation in Iran [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For SC, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 453.7 and 454.8 respectively, with price increases of 1.1 and 0.9 and increases of 0.24% and 0.20%; for WTI, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 60.14 and 59.83 respectively, with price increases of 0.44 and 0.47 and increases of 0.74% and 0.79%; for Brent, the previous day's closing prices of the near - month and next - month contracts were 63.37 and 62.96 respectively, with price increases of 0.62 and 0.61 and increases of 0.99% and 0.98%. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided, and there are changes in open interests [2] - **Spread Information**: The current spreads of SC near - month - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, etc. are given, and there are also comparisons with the previous values [2] - **Exchange Rate Information**: The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates are provided [2] - **Comment**: The external market rose [2] Spot Market - **International Market**: The current prices and previous prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, etc. are given, and the international crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose [2] - **Domestic Market**: The current prices and previous prices of domestic crude oil such as Daqing and Shengli, as well as the wholesale price indices of gasoline and diesel, FOB naphtha in Singapore, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene are provided [2] Commodity - Specific Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Trump's attitude towards Iran and Venezuela affected the market, and the OPEC report gave demand forecasts for the "Joint Declaration" member countries' crude oil in 2026 and 2027 [3] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load decreased, the import volume decreased, the coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected arrival volume of imported ships from January 15 to February 1 is 73.15 - 74 million tons [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals amidst geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a continued upward trend for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold continues to rebound, driven by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Silver and platinum are supported not only by macroeconomic factors but also by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand [3]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to persist, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, central bank purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as President Trump adopts a more cautious stance regarding Iran [2][14]. - OPEC's report indicates that global demand for oil from member countries is expected to remain stable, with daily demand projected to increase to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][14]. Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have decreased by 1.28%, with tight concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits impacting the market [20]. - The overall growth in smelting output continues, but the supply disruptions are shifting global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, with December's core CPI rebound lower than expected, indicating a potential continuation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support the long-term performance of precious metals, as liquidity remains loose [3]. Group 5: Domestic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand in 2026, which may influence various sectors [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance water resource management and promote water-saving industries, targeting a significant increase in agricultural irrigation efficiency by 2030 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans at a historically high level, which may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. - The corn market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. There is short - term supply pressure, and the upside space is relatively limited, but there are strong buyers when the price is low [2]. - The egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage, but the market has no obvious driving force due to the balance between supply and demand, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the pig supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will still be short - term structural pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Content Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are generally stable, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - Two domestic soybean trading sessions organized by Sinograin last week were fully sold. The market demand has some support, but the high price difference between domestic and imported soybeans may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. Corn - The policy - based grain source release in the domestic corn market has significantly increased. After the Spring Festival, more than 700,000 tons of liquidity were released in the first week [2]. - The initial auction of Sinograin had a low成交 rate, but after reducing the reserve price, the成交 rate increased to 77%, with a small premium [2]. - There is short - term supply pressure, the upside space before the Spring Festival is limited, and it is recommended to view it as wide - range fluctuations. Consider buying on dips if there is a large correction [2]. Egg - As of January 18, the profit per catty of eggs has turned positive to 0.6 yuan, indicating that the egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage [3]. - The price rebound has made farmers hesitant about culling old chickens. The supply is balanced by new additions and delayed culling, and inventory has appeared after the price increase. There is no obvious driving force in the market [3]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9% compared to the previous year, and it is currently 101.6% of the normal inventory [3]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will be short - term structural pressure [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: SC night - session dropped 0.52%. Geopolitical risk premium in the oil market decreased as Trump shifted to a wait - and - see attitude on Iran. Market sentiment turned more pessimistic after Trump's positive phone call with Venezuelan acting president. More crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the coming weeks. OPEC report forecasts global demand for JMMC member countries' crude oil to remain at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, a 600,000 - barrel - per - day increase from 2025, and rise to 43.6 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - Methanol: Methanol night - session declined 1.39%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants dropped 4.67 percentage points to 80.75%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.91% as of January 15, down 0.18 percentage points from last week and 1.69 percentage points from the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly. Short - term outlook is bullish, while the situation in Iran needs attention [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month all rose, with increases of 0.24%, 0.20%, 0.74%, 0.79%, 0.99%, and 0.98% respectively. The previous day's closing prices were 453.7, 454.8, 60.14, 59.83, 63.37, and 62.96 respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes were 66,825, 19,066, 240,924, 141,512, 218,464, and 135,720 respectively. Open interests were 29,337, 18,468, 326,326, 215,726, 622,875, and 460,724 respectively. Open interest changes were - 482, 1055, - 16162, 7344, - 6472, and 9121 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: Current spreads such as SC near - month - SC next - month were - 1.1, compared to the previous value of - 1.3 [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: International crude oil spot and refined oil prices rose. For example, OPEC basket crude oil price increased from 62.77 to 62.94 [2]. - **Domestic Market**: Some domestic prices changed. For instance, the price of Daqing crude oil decreased from 60.38 to 59.54 [2].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - In December, domestic industrial crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year-on-year decline, while processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a 5.0% year-on-year increase. Trump's suspension of military action against Iran led to a partial retreat of geopolitical risk premium. The global crude oil supply-demand structure in Q1 2026 shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus remains the main factor suppressing oil prices [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Fed officials' negative attitude towards short - term interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Greenland issue maintain the bullish trend of precious metals [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded. LME US inventory registration and narrowing of the US - London spread affected the market. Domestic copper market is mainly in a "supply exceeds demand" situation, with social inventory reaching 329,400 tons. It is recommended to hold a combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars increased by 13,000 tons each on Monday, and spot feedback was weak. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving factor [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with no long - term production cuts. The alumina market is in significant surplus, with the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan dropping to around 2,600 yuan. Spot prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have corrected. Downstream acceptance is limited, and spot trading is weak. The weighted precipitation funds of Shanghai zinc have dropped to 5.1 billion yuan. Considering the import ore TC and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand, the short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton. The annual high is considered to be 25,600 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies [7]. Lead - The import window remains open. Both domestic and foreign markets are in a low - level consolidation due to oversupply. In late January, the resumption of production of domestic primary aluminum smelters is relatively concentrated, increasing supply pressure. The lower support for Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level, and the market is active. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, with high - level transactions blocked. The negative feedback risk is accumulating. Short - term sentiment is high, and it is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]. Tin - Overnight, domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded. LME tin ingot inventory increased to 6,440 tons, and the spot discount widened to $104. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand. It is advisable to hold short - call options at a high level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is weakly oscillating, and the market is active. Downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [10]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices mainly oscillated. Rebar apparent demand increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends [11]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis narrowed recently. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil but an increase in non - mainstream shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased. Demand is affected by potential disruptions to iron - making production. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Coke - The daily price mainly oscillated. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by factors such as coal inventory and policies [13]. Coking Coal - The daily price mainly oscillated. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,465 tons. Coking coal production increased significantly, terminal inventory increased, and total inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by inventory and policies [14]. Manganese Silicon - The daily price oscillated downward. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron - making production decreased seasonally, and silicon - manganese production and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [15]. Silicon Iron - The daily price oscillated downward. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decrease in power and raw material costs. Iron - making production rebounded, and overall demand is still resilient. Supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [16]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - The inflection point of spot freight rates has been confirmed, leading the futures market into a weak trend. The near - month contract is affected by the actual "rush - shipping" intensity due to export - tax policy adjustments. The 04 contract may oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption - of - shipping expectation. Contract rules will be adjusted [17]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical risks are expected to support the high - sulfur cracking spread, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy - raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [18]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil but with limited amplitude. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored. The market is in an oscillating range [19]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also improved. The short - term market may decline slightly, but with the start of agricultural demand, the market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range [20]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline at night. Import arrivals decreased significantly, and port inventory decreased. However, demand from some olefin plants decreased, and the market is expected to oscillate in a stalemate. The expected significant reduction in imports in Q1 provides support [21]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to oscillate strongly at night. Domestic refinery production cuts and reduced imports, along with increased downstream demand, led to a significant reduction in East China port inventory. The short - term market is expected to oscillate strongly [22]. Styrene - Styrene is in a tight - balance state, with limited port arrivals and expected inventory reduction. Domestic production enterprises have good sales, and exports provide some support [23]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of propylene is tight in the short term, but downstream purchasing willingness is limited due to high costs. The demand support for polyethylene is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand fundamentals of polypropylene may lack upward driving force [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are weakening, with a decline in production capacity utilization. The cost is rising, and it is expected to go through capacity reduction. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy. Caustic soda is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure [25]. PX and PTA - Before and after the Spring Festival, PX has limited upward - driving force, and PTA follows the raw material. In Q2, considering PX maintenance and polyester production increase, there are opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads. PTA processing spreads will moderately recover in the new year [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic new ethylene - glycol plants are put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. In Q2, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term outlook is under pressure due to capacity growth [27]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises have high production loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and prices follow the raw material. Bottle - chip production has decreased, and processing spreads have recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [28]. Glass - Glass prices declined due to new ignition plans. The industry is in a state of inventory reduction, but supply may increase slightly. Processing orders are weak, and the market may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period. It is advisable to consider long - buying opportunities when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [29]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai raw - material prices decline. Natural - rubber supply is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering. Synthetic - rubber supply is increasing, and inventory trends are different. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [30]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure. Production may decline slightly in the short term, but long - term supply pressure is large. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and wait and see when the price drops to the cost level [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day. South American weather has improved, increasing the probability of ENSO neutrality. US soybean exports have strengthened. In China, soybean crushing is expected to increase in January. It is necessary to pay attention to US soybean exports and South American weather [32]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil export data shows an increase, and production shows a decrease, which is beneficial for inventory reduction. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for US biodiesel. The overall outlook for soybean and palm oil is an oscillating range [33]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China and Canada have reached a preliminary arrangement on trade issues. If the import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal improves as expected before March 1, it is expected to drive purchases. The short - term view on rapeseed products is bearish [34]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are oscillating. Policy - driven auction results have a guiding effect on prices. The supply of grassroots grain sources is tight, and high prices suppress demand. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and the spot market [35]. Corn - Snow in Northeast China boosts the bullish sentiment, and transportation of grassroots grain is difficult. Corn prices in Northeast China and northern ports are strong. However, increased auctions by state and local reserves may form pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [36]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live - pig futures changed significantly. After a weekend increase in prices, the futures prices dropped in the afternoon. The short - term rebound may be over. The industry capacity is showing signs of contraction, and pig prices are expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [37]. Eggs - After the New Year's Day, egg spot prices have been strengthening. The futures prices have followed the spot, but on Monday, the futures prices dropped significantly. In the long - term, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline, and it is advisable to adopt a long - buying strategy on dips [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to correct. After the previous rise, the positive factors have been mostly reflected. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. India's sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thailand's is slow. In China, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Guangxi's production is slow, but there is a strong expectation of an increase in the 2025/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [40]. Apples - Futures prices have corrected. Spot market transactions for the Spring Festival are increasing, but the quality of apples is poor, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to future demand [41]. Wood - Futures prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease in the short term, and demand has increased compared to the same period last year. Low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices were basically flat. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, China's A - share indices had mixed performance, and futures indices mostly rose. The geopolitical situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment. The stock - index trend is expected to change from a one - way increase to an oscillatingly strong trend, with a slower upward slope. It is necessary to pay attention to the transition from liquidity - driven to profit - driven and geopolitical impacts [44]. Treasury Bonds - On January 19, 2026, 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The first structural "interest - rate cut" of the year was implemented. The central bank adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial - housing loans and carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The money market is gradually becoming loose, but the short - term downward space for interest rates may be limited during the tax - payment period [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Plastics and PP showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week. Plastics had a weekly gain for four consecutive weeks, while PP's weekly line turned negative. The market is currently facing a risk of correction in the short - term due to factors such as significant increases in warehouse receipts and the seasonal off - peak demand [3][8][14]. - For plastics, although the cost support has improved and the spot trading has picked up, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories have significantly decreased, the downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season, and the replenishment may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the changes in geopolitical conflicts, and if the market sentiment weakens, the market may return to the previous downward trend [4]. - For PP, although the cost of propylene has been relatively strong recently, the proportion of externally purchased propylene production capacity is only about 4%, and the cost support is not significant. The weighted gross profit is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The market is affected by factors such as low - level operation of production, seasonal off - peak demand, and significant increases in warehouse receipts on January 13th, and there is an opportunity to short the market [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Plastics**: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6607, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6888 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6695 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 281 points in the whole week [3][14]. - **PP**: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6431, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6664 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6496 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 233 points in the whole week [8][14]. - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the main positions of PE were 490,000 lots, showing a slight decrease, and the market rebounded with a reduction in positions [16]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Friday, the number of L and PP warehouse receipts was 10,627 and 17,508 lots respectively [27]. - **Spreads**: As of this Friday, the main spread of plastics was 65 yuan/ton, which was slightly higher than the neutral level in the same period; the main spread of PP was - 27 yuan/ton, which was at a low level in the same period. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 38 yuan/ton. The LP05 spread was 199 yuan/ton [21][24][30]. - **Valuation**: As of this Wednesday, the weighted gross profit of LLDPE was - 215 yuan/ton, with a significant recovery in the gross profit of MTO and ethylene; the weighted gross profit of PP was - 748 yuan/ton, and the PDH gross profit was still at a low level in the same period [32]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply** - **Plastics**: This week, the PE production was 670,000 tons, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a capacity utilization rate of 82%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 9.8%. The supply pressure was mainly concentrated in HD, and the cumulative production of LD was significantly lower than that of last year. Some plants are planned to restart in the next period, and the production is expected to increase. According to the balance sheet forecast, the year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 9.1% [43]. - **PP**: This week, the PP production was 780,000 tons, showing a decline for four consecutive weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 76%, and the cumulative year - on - year production increase was 6.3%. The production is expected to increase slightly next week, as the profit of externally purchased propylene has improved and the enterprise's enthusiasm for starting production has increased. According to the balance sheet forecast, the cumulative year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 13.9%, and the cumulative year - on - year production from January to April is expected to be 9.6%. There are no production expansion plans in the first half of the year, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [46]. - **Import and Export** - **PE**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export volume was 90,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 31%), and the average monthly import volume was 1.1 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%). In November 2025, the import volume was 1.06 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year changes of LL, LD, and HE were - 9.8%, 9.1%, and - 5.4% respectively [49][52]. - **PP**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly import volume was 280,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 9%), and the average monthly export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 28%). In November 2025, the PP import volume was 230 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%), and the export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 38%) [55][58]. - **Downstream Demand** - **PE**: This week, the downstream capacity utilization rate of PE was 41%, showing a seasonal decline. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PE was 11%. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 was 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate for five months. The downstream agricultural film operating rate has declined for eight consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of PE packaging film has significantly declined [60][62]. - **PP**: This week, the downstream operating rate of PP has declined for five consecutive weeks, among which the BOPP operating rate has increased and the PP non - woven fabric has weakened. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PP was 16.9%. In November 2025, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.51 million tons. This week, the plastic braiding operating rate has declined for six consecutive weeks, and the BOPP operating rate remains at a high level [64][67]. - **Plastic Products Export**: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.6 billion US dollars (a year - on - year increase of 0.5%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14%. In November 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was 12 billion US dollars (a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 13%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 13% [69]. - **Inventory**: This week, the commercial inventory of PE was 860,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.12 million tons), and the commercial inventory of PP was 700,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons). As of this Thursday, the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins was 530,000 tons. This week, the enterprise inventory of PE was 350,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25,000 tons), and the enterprise inventory of PP was 430,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons). This week, the social inventory of PE was 480,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0 and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons), and the trader inventory of PP was 190,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons) [72][74][77][79]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP from 2014 to 2026, the monthly supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP in 2026, and the balance sheet forecasts of PE and PP contracts such as PE05, PE09, PE01, PP05, PP09, and PP01 [80][81][82][83]. 3. Strategies - **Plastics**: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,550 - 6,800 yuan/ton for L2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, take a wait - and - see approach [5][7]. - **PP**: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,350 - 6,600 yuan/ton for PP2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, as the market maintains a contango structure, industrial customers can sell short at high prices when the opportunity arises [11].

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