Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term oil price is expected to rebound with oscillations, but the upside space remains limited. Supply - side geopolitical risk premiums and OPEC+ production cuts provide support, while long - term supply increases and demand substitution risks exist. Demand - side Asian seasonal restocking is nearing an end, and narrowing refinery profits in Europe and the United States suppress processing volume growth. Although the oil price may briefly break through the previous high under certain circumstances, it lacks continuous upward momentum due to the slowdown in global economic growth and non - OPEC supply elasticity [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 24, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil futures main contract rose by 5.2 yuan/barrel (1.13%) to 464.9 yuan/barrel, continuing the recent upward oscillation trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 61.75 dollars/barrel and 65.26 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread changed from - 0.71 dollars/barrel to 0.01 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened by 0.72 dollars to 3.52 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive three spread narrowed from - 5.8 yuan/barrel to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - In the week of October 21, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions were significantly reduced by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts, a recent low, and diesel net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts, indicating weakening confidence in continuous oil price increases and weakening refined oil demand expectations [3]. (2) Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The pipeline fire in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with September oil exports at a high of 102 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year. Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit due to a drone attack, which may affect refined oil exports but not crude oil production. The US opened Alaska for drilling, and India's Reliance Industries increased crude oil purchases, suggesting potential non - OPEC supply increases [4]. - Demand side: India's October services PMI preliminary value of 60.7 supported Asian crude oil import demand. However, the expected reduction in China's refined oil retail price limit may suppress refinery restocking willingness. Indonesia's plan to implement the E10 gasoline policy in 2027 may suppress traditional gasoline demand in the long term. The reduction of US diesel speculative long positions reflected weakening industrial demand expectations, and there was no significant rebound signal in EIA apparent demand [4]. - Inventory side: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, indicating limited delivery storage capacity pressure. US Cushing inventory decreased recently, but EIA commercial crude oil inventory was still at a seasonal high, and the overall OECD inventory level suppressed the upward movement of oil prices [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring (1) Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 464.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.13% from the previous day. WTI was 61.44 dollars/barrel, down 0.50%, and Brent was 64.92 dollars/barrel, down 0.52% [7]. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices showed an upward trend, with the Brent spot price rising by 1.61%, the Oman spot price rising by 1.37%, etc. [7]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread increased by 149.30% to 0.35 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 36.79% to 3.83 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 0.85% to 3.48 dollars/barrel [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index increased by 0.01%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.79%, the DAX index increased by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7]. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.23%, Cushing inventory decreased by 3.50%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.20%. The US refinery weekly开工 rate increased by 3.38%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 3.97% [7]. (2) Fuel Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,814 yuan/ton, up 2.25% from the previous day, the LU was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, and NYMEX fuel oil was 239.7 cents/gallon, up 0.57% [8]. - Spot prices: Some fuel oil spot prices increased, such as the high - sulfur 180 in Singapore rising by 2.28%, and the Russian M100 to - shore price rising by 4.75% [8]. - Paper - cargo prices: The high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) increased by 2.51% [8]. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was not provided, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.03% [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% [8]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation (1) Supply - On October 26, the fire in an oil pipeline in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with the current daily output remaining at 400,000 barrels. Iraq's September total oil exports were 102.15 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year [9][10]. - On October 24, Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit after a drone attack. India's Reliance Industries bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East and the US. Italy's Eni Group raised its 2025 oil and gas production guidance, expecting an output of 171 - 172 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 and about 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter. The US announced the opening of the Alaska coastal plain for oil drilling [10]. (2) Demand - Indonesia plans to implement a policy in 2027 to make the bio - ethanol content in gasoline reach 10% [11]. (3) Inventory - On October 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,960 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons [12]. (4) Market Information - As of the week of October 21, diesel speculative net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts to 45,766 contracts, and Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts [13]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions on all Russian oil companies, shadow fleets, and oil terminals. China's refined oil retail price limit is likely to be reduced on October 27 [13]. - India's October services PMI preliminary value was 60.7 [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [14][16][18]

第一部分 结论 第二部分 供需基本面 黑色金属周报-钢材 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 本周国内钢材现货价格小幅波动，截至周六，华东上海螺纹3170元（-）；上海热卷3290元， （+20）。 五大品种钢材整体产量增8.37万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降1.27吨，社库降26.14吨。表观 需892.73万吨，环比增17.32万吨。截至10月24日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金含税成本 3143元，点对点利润27元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润47元左右。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本 在3294元左右，谷电成本在3151.5左右，华东螺纹平电利润-174元左右，谷电利润-31元。 废钢端，截止10月23日，张家港废钢价格2140元/吨，环比持平。数据显示，89家独立电弧炉 企业产能利用率33.2%，环比下降1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51.4万吨，环比下降0.94万吨； 其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.9万吨/天，环比下降0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand picked up, and the cost support rose. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed different trends [6]. - **Cost**: The production in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 was at a loss of 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the spot price in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons. The main port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Expected Trend**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The planned output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The output of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in production and inventory. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is currently at a loss, while the production of components is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Expected Trend**: The supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference of some contracts increased. The inventory and production showed different trends in different regions [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference, inventory, and production of related products also showed different trends [17]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - base difference and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production, and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through charts [20][25][29][36]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trend, price - base difference trend, and inventory trend are presented through charts [22][23]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, consumption, import, and export of industrial silicon in different periods [39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, consumption, import, and export of polysilicon in different periods [68]. 3.6 Downstream Product Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented through charts [45][47][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy are presented through charts [55][58][59]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry are presented through charts [71][74][77]

Report Title - The report is titled "PP Weekly Report 20251026: Rebound Window" [2][7] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The contract is pp2601. PP is in the capacity release period, with new installations being put into operation successively and high existing production loads, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it falls short of expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. Under the situation of oversupply, the price center of polypropylene may continue to move downward [6]. - This week, the price of PP has rebounded. On one hand, the previous decline was significant and the trend was smooth. On the other hand, the previous negative factors have eased. The Sino - US trade conflict has eased, and pessimistic sentiment has subsided. In addition, crude oil prices rebounded significantly this week, increasing cost support and driving up chemical products. The Fourth Plenary Session also had a certain emotional guidance. There were limited changes in its own fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products decreased, with some shipping pressure, and the basis strengthened slightly. The basis in East China strengthened by 10 to around - 90 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around - 130 yuan/ton, and strengthened by 20 to around - 80 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis of plastic performed stronger than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional Spread**: The spreads between North China - East China and South China - East China both strengthened [31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spread between injection molding and drawing decreased further, while the spread between low - melt copolymer and drawing strengthened [32]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PP futures decreased slightly to around - 50. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread declined. Overall, PP has greater supply pressure (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for film has started, and the recovery of PP demand is relatively slow, so the L - PP spread is gradually repairing upwards. At the same time, the cost side of PP (PG, MA) is also under pressure, further strengthening the spread [58]. 2. Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based production maintained a relatively good profit level in recent years. Although the price of Brent crude oil dropped to around $80/barrel this week due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and the resurgence of trade war risks, the oil - based production profit remained stable [64]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of propane in North Asia is expected to be marginally relaxed in Q4, and the PDH - made PP profit improved quarter - on - quarter [64]. - The price of动力煤 continued to rise, but the CTO profit remained high. The price of methanol in the production area was firm under tight supply - demand conditions, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 44.01 million tons. In early 2025, China's PP production capacity was expected to increase by 2.655 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of September 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 4.155 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 11% [92][94][95]. - This week, the PP production was 801,000 tons (- 23,400 tons), and the operating rate was 75.94% (- 2.28%). The supply loss of PP was 246,600 tons, including 182,800 tons of maintenance loss and 63,700 tons of production reduction loss. There were more temporary maintenance plans for production enterprises this week, and the subsequent planned maintenance is also relatively high, and the enterprise's operating enthusiasm is not high, so the maintenance volume may remain at a high level [10]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. Asian prices continued to be weak. The CFR Far East supply was in excess with weak demand, and prices in Southeast Asia were generally falling due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - priced domestic supplies. The supply - demand situation in South Asia was also poor. The spread between CFR China and the outer market rebounded [127][128]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and the counter - offer price is low. The export quotation center of production enterprises has shifted downward, and enterprises are making low - price concessions for transactions. On the import side, although China's price is at a relatively low level globally, the weak external demand has led to a decrease in the ability to accept goods, and more goods are flowing to China [145]. 4. Downstream Profit and Operation - **Downstream Operation**: After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.83%, a decrease of 0.09% quarter - on - quarter. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, with an increase in the use of fertilizer bags in agriculture and the recovery of construction infrastructure driving the demand for woven bags. The operating rate of BOPP increased by 0.48%, while that of CPP decreased by 0.32%. The operating rate of PP pipes decreased by 0.33%, and the operating rate of injection molding increased by 0.13%. In the traditional peak season, demand still has room to rise, but overall performance is relatively weak and difficult to absorb the high supply [148]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 6.787 million tons, with the inventory of two major oil companies increasing by 196,000 tons, coal - chemical industry inventory decreasing by 141,000 tons, PBI inventory decreasing by 85,000 tons, and local refinery inventory increasing by 3,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed of upstream production enterprises was slow, so the production enterprise inventory only decreased slightly this week [212]. - Trader inventory decreased by 225,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. As downstream demand gradually returned to normal, domestic trader inventory decreased, and the allocation of external resources to the domestic market increased [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With cost support and peak - season restocking, PTA inventory reduction continues. It is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation at a low valuation. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is weakening, and the rebound momentum is limited. Attention should be paid to crude oil dynamics [6]. - MEG: The cost side of ethylene glycol performs well. With some device maintenance and blocked arrival of imported goods, it is expected to continue the short - term rebound trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Market Trend**: Due to the US increasing sanctions on Russia, the ongoing stalemate in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, combined with the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil rebounded from a low level. For PX, with cost support, many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, and terminal restocking enthusiasm increased, leading to a recovery in the absolute price of PX. As of October 24, the closing price of Asian PX was $815/ton CFR China, up $32/ton from October 17 [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The 1 million - ton device of Urumqi Petrochemical continued maintenance and was planned to restart around October 29; two 1.4 - million - ton devices of Fushun Dahua continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PX was 86.33%, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week [19]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 24, the PX - naphtha price difference was $233.9/ton, a decrease of $12.3/ton from October 17. Although many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, the cost side was significantly driven up by crude oil, resulting in a narrow decline in the PX - naphtha price difference [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: In the first half of the week, affected by the weakening of oil prices, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was low, and the pessimistic sentiment in the industrial chain spread. The spot price of PTA continued to weaken. In the middle of the week, as oil prices rebounded from a low level, the overall sentiment in the commodity market improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries in the traditional peak season increased. The spot price rebounded from a low level. As of October 24, the spot price of PTA was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA reached 75.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%. Although the load of Yisheng Ningbo's device decreased, due to the load increase of Yisheng New Materials last week, the increase was more than the decrease, and the overall domestic production this period increased. In October, Ineos and Hengli both had maintenance plans, and the restart times of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan were not yet determined. The monthly production of PTA may increase significantly. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more - than - expected production cuts in existing devices [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The terminal performance was mediocre, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries was hindered, and the spot price trend was sluggish. However, the raw material supply was tight, and the price trend was strong. This week, the PTA processing fee continued to decline. Next week, there is an expectation of a rebound in the PTA spot price, but the maintenance devices have restart plans, and the polyester end changes little. The inventory reduction amplitude in the balance sheet narrows, and the PTA processing fee may be slightly repaired [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, there was insufficient PTA device maintenance, and the maintenance devices restarted one after another. With little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be in a loose balance [32]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: At the beginning of the week, the market continued to worry about the supply - demand pattern. In the middle of the week, affected by factors such as the continuous rise of crude oil, the reduction in supply, and the decrease in imported goods, the price of ethylene glycol rose from a low level. As of October 24, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang reached 4,183 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market remained stable at 4,280 yuan/ton [37]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 68.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In October, due to cautious import expectations, the inventory accumulation amplitude at ports was limited, but the domestic production increase expectation was obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of unexpected device changes [38]. - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China was 127,000 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to October 16 [42][44]. - **Profit**: With the stable operation of newly invested domestic devices, the overall supply continued to increase. The terminal orders were mediocre, and the downstream polyester demand was lackluster. The trend of weakening supply - demand could not be reversed. The raw material prices fluctuated, and the sample profits of each ethylene glycol production process showed both increases and decreases. As of October 24, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $95.04/ton, up $13.85/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 610.44 yuan/ton, down 140.24 yuan/ton from last week [46]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. Some domestic polyester devices were shut down for maintenance during the week. Next week, the previously shut - down and maintained devices have no clear restart expectations, and the commissioning of new devices is postponed. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will decline slightly next week [51]. - **Capacity Utilization of Each Product**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.04%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 85.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%; among them, the average capacity utilization rate of conventional staple fiber was 88.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The Fujian Shanli plant shut down during the period. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [57]. - **Inventory**: Downstream industries carried out centralized restocking during the week, the overall sales of polyester increased, and the finished product inventory of factories decreased [58]. - **Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost increased, and polyester filament manufacturers sold products at discounted prices. The cash flow of most varieties was compressed [63]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 15.68 days, an increase of 0.88 days compared to last week. As the weather gets colder, the demand for domestic autumn and winter fabrics is good, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is relieved. However, the market lacks confidence in future orders, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis. It is expected that the operating rate will still face downward pressure in the future [64]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International crude oil rebounded from a low level, and the absolute price of PX recovered [68]. - **Supply**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA increased slightly, and the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate decreased [68]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased [68]. - **Inventory**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the near - term supply remains tight, while the long - term supply - demand inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China decreased [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with low market operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish drive but low market operability [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks, especially the escalation of sanctions on Russia, are driving the short - term upward volatility of the oil market. The short - term trends of various energy products are greatly affected by macro events, while the medium - term trends are related to supply - demand fundamentals [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with the SC12 contract rising 2.4% intraday. The sharp escalation of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk led to the oil price rebound. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia involves 4 Chinese enterprises, and supply - chain risks have emerged in the trade and unloading ports of Chinese purchases of Russian oil. Geopolitical risks drive the short - term upward volatility of the oil market. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US - Malaysian talks from the 24th to 27th and subsequent Russia - US dialogues [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and geopolitical factors drive the upward trend of the crude - oil system. The sanctions on Russia, a major producer of high - sulfur raw materials, have a stronger upward driving force for high - sulfur fuel oil than for low - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the trend depends on the outcome of macro events. In the medium term, as the power - generation peak season ends and supply becomes looser, the upward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil will gradually appear. The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil remain weak with abundant overseas supply. The recovery of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has led to a decline in shipments, but its operational stability remains to be observed. In the fourth quarter, the increase in heating and power - generation demand in the Northern Hemisphere may bring marginal improvement to low - sulfur fuel oil and support the crack spread [2] Asphalt - The BU contract continued its upward trend, with the near - month contract rising relatively strongly. This week, both supply and demand of asphalt decreased. The scheduled production of local refineries in November decreased significantly month - on - month and year - on - year. The weekly shipments of 54 asphalt sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. Social inventories continued to be destocked steadily, while the destocking of refinery inventories was slow, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the asphalt market maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the strengthening of the cost side helps the BU contract consolidate its upward trend [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - All LPG futures contracts rose today. The external market price stabilized and rebounded. The commercial volume of liquefied gas and the volume of imported vessels both decreased. The improvement of chemical profit promoted the increase in demand, and the significant cooling in many places led to a sign of improvement in the combustion - end demand. The inventories of Chinese refineries and ports continued to decline. The marginal improvement of fundamentals and the strengthening of crude oil prices boosted the LPG market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability of sanctions and their impact on the market need to be closely monitored. The crude oil market faces supply - demand imbalances, with increasing supply and weakening demand in the future [7][8][10]. - The price of asphalt may follow the short - term upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable, and it may fall again later due to weakening demand [26][27]. - The soda ash market is in a state of oversupply, and the contract price is expected to fluctuate. With no substantial positive factors, the price may fluctuate weakly [50][51][53]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market persists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [74]. - The polysilicon market has insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - The pulp market may continue to oscillate widely in the short term due to weak overseas consumption and slow start of the traditional peak season [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices rose this week. Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies may support the prices of Middle - Eastern oil types, but the sustainability of sanctions is uncertain. If sanctions ease, oil prices may fall again [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices, but historical experience shows that prices may fall without further support. EIA data shows that US crude oil and product inventories decreased this week, and refinery operating rates rebounded. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the market is worried about supply over - capacity. On the demand side, although the demand in the second and third quarters was slightly higher than expected, it is expected to be weak in the remaining time of this year and 2026 [8][10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The asphalt futures price rose this week, while the spot price fell slightly. The cost side is affected by oil prices, and the supply side is expected to remain stable overall, but the demand side is seasonally weakening. Short - term prices may follow oil prices, but the sustainability is doubtful, and long - positions should take flexible profit - taking [26][27]. - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply side has some changes in refinery production plans, with overall operating rates expected to be stable. The demand side is weakening seasonally, and the inventory of both factories and the society has decreased. The production profit has generally increased [28][30][31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price fluctuated slightly and was slightly stronger. Supply was affected by equipment maintenance, but overall production remained stable. Downstream demand was mainly for low - price replenishment, and the fundamental driving force was still insufficient. The market was in a state of oversupply, and the price was expected to oscillate, with a possible weakening trend [50][51][53]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: - **Supply**: The weekly production and operating rate of soda ash decreased slightly. Some enterprises had equipment maintenance, and the overall supply remained abundant. In the fourth quarter, supply may be further affected by new capacity [54][55]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash increased again, with heavy - soda ash inventory increasing significantly. The inventory pressure was significant, and the supply - demand imbalance continued to dominate the market [56]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soda ash was expected to oscillate narrowly, with a weak balance between supply and demand and insufficient upward momentum [63]. - **Glass Import and Export**: The export volume of soda ash in September decreased slightly, but the cumulative export volume from January to September increased significantly compared with last year. The import volume was small [64]. - **Downstream**: The demand for soda ash from the float glass industry was relatively stable, but the industry was still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry was in a weak - balance state, and the inventory pressure might restrict price increases [68][69]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply - demand imbalance persisted, and the price was expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9000 yuan/ton [74]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the industrial silicon industry chain were stable. The spot inventory was slowly increasing, and the production continued to rise. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors had different performances, and the export volume decreased slightly in September [74][76][77]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook**: The price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The photovoltaic industry had insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. It was advisable to wait and see [88][89]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the polysilicon industry chain were stable. The production of polysilicon continued to increase, but the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory of the entire industry chain increased slightly [90][92]. Pulp - **Pulp Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price rose this week, and the spot price of wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. Overseas consumption was weak, and the supply pressure of domestic and foreign pulp mills was still being released. The demand side of the pulp market was slowly increasing, and the traditional peak season started slowly. The price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [103][104]. - **Fundamental Changes**: - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Main Producing Countries**: In August, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased year - on - year, with different trends for softwood and hardwood pulp [105]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In September, China's paper pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [104]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory Situation**: The inventory days of global producers' softwood and hardwood pulp showed different trends, and the inventory in major regions and ports increased [115]. - **Downstream Market**: The performance of downstream base papers was still differentiated, and the demand for the pulp market increased slowly [104].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 苯乙烯：短期跟随原油反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 （《国泰君安期货周报》） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2512 | 6,848 | 6,943 | -95 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2601 | 6,875 | 6,974 | -99 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2610 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB120EB01 | -27 | -31 | 4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB01-EB10 | -512 | -400 | -112 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 73 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has issued policies to accelerate the transformation and high-quality development of the livestock industry, particularly focusing on supporting the dairy sector through financial incentives and promoting integrated development of dairy farming and processing [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The government will provide a one-time subsidy of up to 2 million yuan for dairy processing companies that purchase over 10,000 tons of fresh milk annually from social farms [1] - Dairy farms that obtain production licenses for dairy products will also receive a one-time subsidy of up to 2 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Dongxing Securities predicts that by 2025, the supply-demand structure of dairy products will further optimize, with signs of a rebound in milk prices, expecting a balance in fresh milk supply and demand in the second half of the year [1] - Donghai Securities notes that with policy support, there is still room for improvement in the penetration rate of the dairy industry, and if milk prices enter an upward cycle, the performance of livestock companies is expected to grow rapidly [1] - Guotai Haitong Securities highlights that the dairy industry is currently at a triple bottom in supply, demand, and inventory, with the reduction of livestock being a key driver for closing the supply-demand gap [1]