Group 1 - The net asset value of public funds in China has increased from 33.12 trillion yuan at the end of April to 36.96 trillion yuan by the end of October, setting a new historical record [1] - As of the end of October, there are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1] - Open-end funds account for 90% of the total public fund scale, with significant growth in money market funds and QDII funds, while equity funds and mixed funds have seen a decline [2] Group 2 - The scale of money market funds increased by 3.86 trillion yuan and the number of shares increased by 3.85 trillion shares compared to the end of September [2] - Despite a decrease in the scale of equity funds in October, they remain a focus for public fund institutions, with 64 new funds launched in this category during the month [2] - Bond funds experienced a more significant contraction in October, with a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan in scale and 1.34 trillion shares compared to the end of September [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerating decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the positive factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. In the short term, during the data vacuum period and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is waiting for policies. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertainties, they do not affect the long - term allocation behavior of institutions. The negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven, and as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the new regulations for public funds still exist, and the bond market continues to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen comprehensively, with the long - end yields rising by about 1bp. As of 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 reported 1.845%, up 1.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market is loose and is expected to cross the month smoothly. The central bank made a net injection of 564 million yuan today. The inter - bank funding sentiment index is stable, and the funds are becoming looser. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuates narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rises 2.8bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuates narrowly around 1.61 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The positive factors for the bond market are accumulating, but in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize. The bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. The impact of the new regulations on fund sales fees is short - term, and the negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven. As long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a Chinese business delegation to visit the United States in early December. The delegation will involve various fields and will conduct extensive exchanges with the US business and political circles [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the past two years to support "hard investment" projects, and has also promoted a series of "soft construction" measures [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to study and formulate cost recognition standards for disorderly price competition to maintain market price order [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce has released the 2025 "Country Trade Guide" to help enterprises explore diversified markets [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on November 27, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: The report mentions the changes in inter - bank repurchase rates and SHIBOR, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [27][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [37].

国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.01%报114.42，10年期主力合约跌0.06%报107.895，5年期 主力合约跌0.01%报105.77，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.39。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动，除超长端以外延续偏弱。30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下 行0.5BP报2.189%，10年期"25国开15"上行0.45BP报1.909%，同期限"25附息国债16"上行0.5BP报 1.839%。 新华财经北京11月27日电（王菁）债市周四（11月27日）延续走弱，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间利 率债收益率小幅波动，中短端持续调整；公开市场单日净投放564亿元，资金利率表现分化。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.53%，报478.37点，成交金额495.37亿元。东时转债、博23转债、垒知转债、 恒锋转债、福新转债跌幅居前，分别跌7.29%、5.94%、5.22%、4.54%、3.65%。春23转债、能辉转债、 旗滨转债、浩瀚转债、宏柏转债涨幅居前，分别涨6.85%、3.55%、3.38%、3.12%、2.70%。 机构认为，机构跨年配置意愿仍存，但交易驱动带来的收益率下行幅 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, particularly in the long end, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by over 1 basis point [1] - Government bond futures mostly closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.01%, the 10-year down by 0.06%, and the 5-year down by 0.01% [1] - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond active coupon rose by 1 basis point to 1.844%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.919% [1] Group 2 - The primary market auction results show weighted average rates for various bonds, with the 10-year government bond at 1.9365% and the 5-year policy bank bond at 1.7513% [3] - The top five non-financial credit bonds with the highest gains included 23产融13 and 24新控02, with gains of 3.15% and 2.08% respectively [3] - The top five non-financial credit bonds with the largest declines were all from 万科, with the largest drop being 57.62% for 21万科02 [4] Group 3 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan for the day [5] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.2 basis points to 1.314% and the 7-day rate down by 2.8 basis points to 1.425% [5] - Interbank repo rates remained stable, with FR001 at 1.38% and FR007 at 1.53% [6]

事不过三：第一次是市场形成阶段，第二次是市场学习阶段，第三次是市场复制阶段。 ——笔记哥《应对》 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 26) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代吗 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. 37 | -2 | 7 /// | 1.70 | - 11-29 | 63878.94 | -954. 09 | 86. 02 | | R007 | 1.52 | 0 | | 2.00 | 28 | 9690. 10 | 128.89 | 13.05 | | R014 | 1.53 | 0 | | 1.95 | 15 | 627.98 | -169.21 | 0. 85 | | R1H | 1.61 | 1 | n | 4.00 | 0 | 7.49 | -6.5 ...

Market Overview - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index at one point increasing by over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.78 trillion, a decrease of 28.8 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] Investment Trends - Despite the market downturn, many investment institutions are buying into stock ETFs, with a net inflow of 701.21 billion in stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs last week [4] - The net inflow into broad-based index ETFs was 359.31 billion, indicating a significant direction for capital inflow [4] - Institutions believe that the overall market trend remains unchanged, and the current capital inflow into ETFs suggests that many investors are taking the opportunity to buy on dips [4] External Factors - Recent adjustments in the market are attributed to external factors, including unexpected U.S. employment data and rising unemployment rates, which have created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] - Concerns about asset price declines and the AI bubble have not fully dissipated, contributing to market volatility [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are also affecting market risk appetite [5] Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the market, suggesting that the current short-term pullback does not alter the long-term positive trend [6] - The expectation is for a "slow bull" market to emerge, with foreign investment banks noting that while the market has priced in no further interest rate cuts this year, the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [6] Defensive Strategies - As the year-end approaches, institutions are adopting balanced allocation strategies for next year [7] - There is a strong demand for dividend-paying assets due to ongoing pressures in bank lending and deposit growth [8] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank could enhance the valuation of dividend assets [9] Growth Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology as a key area for growth, presenting both opportunities and challenges [10] - Strategic resources are expected to become focal points in the market due to U.S.-China competition [11] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, with the central bank signaling a more accommodative stance [12] - A decrease in bond supply towards year-end is leading to increased demand for early allocation from banks and insurance companies [12] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider professional institutions for market participation and to monitor fund managers' adjustments [12] - A balanced allocation strategy, referred to as the "barbell strategy," is recommended, focusing on both technology-driven sectors and stable dividend-paying stocks [14] - Investors should lower short-term expectations and consider "fixed income plus" funds for stable returns [15] - Maintaining rationality during market downturns and seeking opportunities in corrections is advised as a long-term investment strategy [16]

3、地方政府专项债迎来投向政府投资基金的集中发行高峰。广东省、四川省、上海市将于11 月28日合计发行200亿元专项债券，分别注入广东省政府投资基金、成都市创业投资基金和上 海未来产业基金。叠加此前多地发行的超600亿元相关专项债，目前披露的投向政府投资基金 的地方政府专项债总规模将超800亿元。 | | 周三国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.1-2.40bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 上行1.50bp左右至1.84%、2.19%。国债期货集体走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别下跌 | | | 0.05%、0.36%、0.86%。DR007加权利率回升至1.47%附近震荡。国内基本面端，10月社零 | | | 、工增较前值小幅回落，固投环比持续下降，失业率边际改善。10月社融、信贷同比小幅下 | | | 滑，政府债对社融的支撑持续减弱，企业、居民实际贷款需求仍然偏弱；M1、M2增速回落， | | | 存款活化程度放缓。10月出口同比增速转负，较去年同期下降1.1%。海外方面，美国9月非农 | | | 就业人口增11.9万人，大幅高于市场预期，但失 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, the liquidity was ample, with major repo rates hovering at low levels; the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation; the convertible bond market's main indices followed the upward trend, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally declined, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Trump, emphasizing that the Busan meeting had set the right course for China - U.S. relations, and both sides should maintain the positive momentum [3] - On November 25, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 10 billion yuan in November, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - overs, in line with market expectations [3] - As of November 21, the issuance of science - innovation bonds in the inter - bank market exceeded 530 billion yuan, with the proportion of issuance scale exceeding 10% for the first time, 5 percentage points higher than before [4] 3.1.2 International News - On November 24, Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly signaled dovish stances, with Waller advocating a rate cut at the next meeting and Daly supporting a December rate cut [5][6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI January crude oil futures rose 1.34% to $58.84 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.29% to $63.37 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 0.36% to $4094.2 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.55% to $4.506 per ounce [7] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 24, the central bank conducted 338.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan as 283 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [9] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On November 24, the liquidity was ample, with major repo rates hovering at low levels. DR001 dropped 0.22bp to 1.319%, and DR007 rose 2.95bp to 1.470% [10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On November 24, the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation with lower trading volume. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8120%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 remained flat at 1.8740% [13] - **Bond Tendering Results**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds including 25贴现国债72, 25附息国债23, etc., was provided, covering details such as term, issuance scale, winning yield, and bid - to - cover ratios [14] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - market Transaction Anomalies**: On November 24, no credit bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10% [15] - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies such as Fanhai Holdings, Fangyuan Real Estate, and Baolong Industry had bond - related events including non - payment, extension of redemption dates, and holder meetings [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On November 24, the A - share market rose, with over 4200 stocks increasing. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.05%, 0.37%, and 0.31% respectively. The convertible bond market also rebounded, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices rising 0.22%, 0.14%, and 0.34% respectively [17] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: News such as the approval of Shang Sheng Electronics' convertible bond issuance and the possible early redemption of Nenghui Convertible Bond were reported [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Treasury Market**: On November 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 5bp to 3.46%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 4.04%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 3bp to 58bp, and the 5/30 - year spread narrowed by 2bp to 107bp [20][21] - **European Bond Market**: On November 24, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally declined, except for Germany and Spain where yields remained unchanged [23] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds of multiple companies such as Ctrip Group, Pinduoduo, and iQiyi were presented, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, and other information [25]

01 谜题尽解，尚待新局——2026年债市年度策略报告 16:00-17:00 核心看点： 2026年债市走向？货币政策宽松空间是否依然有限？面对基本面改善与微观体感疲软 的矛盾，债市将如何抉择？当资本利得惯性遭遇有限票息，是坚守久期还是转向票息策略？明年债 市是否真的只能"小幅看多"，且逆向布局优于顺势而为？ 嘉宾： 杜渐 丨浙商证券固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 03 中信建投 | 科技团队联合展望 - 2026年度策略报告汇报会议之四 20:00-21:00 核心看点： 2026年科技投资的主线是否仍由AI引领？面对"无就业增长"的降息周期，机遇与挑战 如何分化？中国AI能否凭借其庞大的应用市场、世界级的模型层与自主硬件的快速迭代实现系统性 重估？在算力端，散热、PCB、电源等方向是否蕴含确定性机会？国产芯片会否迎来订单倾斜与集 中度提升？而AI应用商业化、计算机领域的国产化、量子科技及智驾等高景气赛道，又将是下一轮 行情的关键吗？ 嘉宾： 于芳博丨中信建投证券人工智能首席分析师 应瑛丨中信建投证券计算机首席分析师 崔世峰丨中信建投证券海外研究首席分析师 杨伟松丨中信建投证券科技前瞻首席分析师 扫码预约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs). The total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month-on-month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with NCD custody scale up 7214 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by broad funds. [2][10][77] - There is uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut in December. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, higher than market expectations. The 9 - month non - farm data may be more accurate, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. As of November 23 noon Beijing time, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 71%. [2][23][77] - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, with bond yields likely to decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year. [4][78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month - on - month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from Shanghai Clearing House. NCDs were the main driver of the increase, with broad funds as the major buyers. [10] - On November 21, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced that savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products starting from June 2026. [23] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of November 16, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 5.4% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue increased by 74.8% year - on - year. As of November 7, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 34.6% year - on - year. [25][30] 2.2 Transportation - Affected by Double 11, freight activity remained high. As of November 16, the weekly port container throughput increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The weekly postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The weekly railway freight volume and highway truck traffic volume increased by 5.3% year - on - year. [32][36] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 19, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of November 20, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 5.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. [38][43] 2.4 Real Estate - As of November 21, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 16.2% year - on - year. As of November 16, the number of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 41.3% year - on - year. [46][49] 2.5 Prices - As of November 21, most prices recovered month - on - month. The average pork wholesale price decreased by 24.4% year - on - year but increased by 1.3% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of northern port thermal coal decreased by 0.7% year - on - year but increased by 11.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. [50] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 21, short - term rates mostly declined. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields at 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 0.9BP/0.2BP/1.0BP compared to November 14 (except for the 1 - year, which decreased by 0.5BP). The US, Japanese, British, and German 10 - year Treasury yields were 4.06%, 1.78%, 4.55%, and 2.76% respectively, down 8BP/up 8BP/down 2BP/down 3BP compared to November 14. The US dollar - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate increased by 50/96 pips compared to November 14. [58][60][69] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first declining, then rising, and then declining. As of November 21, the estimated average duration was about 4.9 years, and the median was about 4.4 years, down 0.02/up 0.18 years compared to November 14. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend, and has declined this week. The estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, and the median was about 2.0 years, down 0.07 years compared to November 14. [73][74] 5. Investment Suggestions - The report is bullish on the bond market. Due to domestic economic pressure, falling housing prices, and high short - term interest rates, there is a significant need to cut policy rates. With the Fed's rate - cut cycle, policy rates may be cut by 20BP in the next six months. The report predicts that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury yield to 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks to 1.9%. [4][78]