【4 月 28 日 PVC 期货价格低位运行，现货市场稳中略涨】4 月 28 日，PVC 期货价格维持低位，V2509 报收 4989 元/吨，涨 0.28%，成交量 72 万手，环比提高 10 万手，持仓量 91 万手，环比下降 3 万手。 现货方面，华东地区电石法 PVC 五型报价在 4740 - 4860 元/吨，贸易商出货清淡，下游制品企业拿货 以刚需低价为主且存观望情绪。 成本方面，近期部分电石装置检修，五一假期临近下游企业备货积 极，电石价格触底反弹，4 月 28 日内蒙古乌海地区电石价格为 2500 元/吨，环比提高 50 元/吨。 供应 方面，上周部分 PVC 装置恢复运行，行业供应小幅回升，截至 4 月 25 日，PVC 行业周度开工率为 78.63%，环比提高 1.28 个百分点，周度产量为 45.94 万吨，环比提高 0.75 万吨，增幅 1.66%，PVC 行 业集中检修期延续，检修力度放缓。 需求方面，上周 PVC 价格再跌刺激部分投机需求，截至 4 月 25 日，PVC 生产企业周度预售订单量为 60.2 万吨，环比提高 6.02%，临近五一假期，下游制品企业放假 预期增多，截至 ...

期货研究报告|EB 周报 2025-04-27 纯苯加工费同期低位，下游开工仍偏低 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 苯乙烯观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 上游方面：本周国内纯苯开工率 71.12 %（0.72 %），国产开工仍处于偏低位，但 5 月 油化工整体开工回升；国内纯苯下游开工虽底部反弹，但 CPL 及苯胺仍处于开工偏低 位，苯乙烯开工仍等待回升，下游开工偏低。 纯苯华东港口库存 12.10 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [5] Core Views - **Market Analysis - Natural Rubber** - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season. At the beginning of tapping, the increase in raw materials is limited. The price of Thai latex has remained stable recently, but as production gradually increases, the raw material price is expected to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply**: In April, global natural rubber production was still at a low level for the year. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. With the expected increase in supply and the profit in Thai standard rubber processing, the expected increase in domestic arrivals remains. Overall, supply is showing a gradual upward trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the full - steel tire operating rate was 65.36% (-2.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.36% (-0.04%). The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year due to the increase in tire factory finished product inventory pressure. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [2]. - **Inventory**: This week, both the Qingdao port inventory and social inventory showed a slight downward trend. Year - on - year, the current inventory reduction is still less than in previous years. The recent decline is mainly due to the increase in tire factory purchases after the absolute price reached a low level [2]. - **Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber** - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 25, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber was 11,476 yuan/ton. This week, the butadiene price was firm, and due to the high raw material price, the production of butadiene rubber continued to incur losses [3]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 25, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 67.17% (+4.41%), and the output was 26,971 tons (+1,771). Under the loss situation, it is difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the later stage [3]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 25, the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the relatively high butadiene price year - on - year, the production of domestic butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state, and the loss has narrowed recently [3]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the upstream butadiene port inventory was 27,400 tons (+2,920), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory was 27,710 tons (0.09), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory was 3,610 tons (-760) [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [4]. Strategies - **RU and NR**: Currently, with the decline in raw material prices, the production profits of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires have improved. Coupled with the stocking demand for the May Day holiday, downstream tire factory purchases have increased, leading to a decline in domestic social inventory and Qingdao port inventory in the past week. However, tire factory orders have not improved, and the demand side provides limited support. Supply shows a seasonal upward trend, indicating that supply and demand are still weak. In the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff increases. If high tariffs are maintained, the drag on demand will continue. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. Against the background of uncertain overall market sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - **BR**: In May, upstream maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will show an upward trend later. The weak price of upstream butadiene has slightly improved the production profit of butadiene rubber, which is currently near the break - even point, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level. The demand side is affected by US tariff increases, and the expectation is poor. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. The actual domestic tire demand is still poor, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continues to decline. Currently, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the tire substitution demand still supports butadiene rubber. The upstream butadiene raw material price may be supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but due to good production profits, high port inventory, and increasing supply pressure later, butadiene still has downward pressure later. Supply and demand are weak, but the cost side and substitute spreads still provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply of crude oil has tightened and oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in asphalt prices. Shandong spot prices have slightly increased, and the futures market has strengthened slightly. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline, while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall inventory remaining relatively stable. The market is generally showing marginal improvement. [1] - The market in the north is tight, while in the east and south, it is relatively loose. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production scheduled for April. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak purchasing in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. [1] - It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant - end contracts such as the 09 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Review - Shandong spot prices have remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market has shown fluctuations, and crack spread profits are at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong have slightly increased. The daily production of asphalt is 6.3 (+0) million tons. [1] Price and Spread Data - The report presents price data for various asphalt - related items from March 27 to April 2, 2025, including prices of Shandong spot, asphalt futures, Korea's CIF price in East China, and Shandong coker feedstock, as well as data on spreads and basis. [1] - It also shows multiple seasonal charts of asphalt, such as basis seasonality for different contracts (06, 09, 12), 9 - 12 month spreads, refinery comprehensive costs for a certain type of asphalt, the ratio of Singapore asphalt to fuel oil, import profits in East China, and comparisons between coker feedstock, petroleum coke, and asphalt prices, as well as data on asphalt's operating rate, social inventory rate, and warehouse receipt seasonality. [1][2]