Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX fundamentals maintain a weak balance, with obvious resilience in terminal demand. In the short - term, PX prices follow the cost of crude oil. In the future, during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is significant potential for demand and production to increase [139]. - For PTA, with large - scale device maintenance plans in August and new device production, the monthly output is expected to change little. Downstream demand provides resilient support. If oil prices are further pressured, TA prices will follow suit. Attention should be paid to demand recovery, tariff implementation progress, and significant oil price fluctuations [139]. - Regarding MEG, the supply is recovering well, and there is still room for domestic production to increase. The downstream demand provides resilient support. The inventory inflection point may arrive, and supply - demand will shift to inventory accumulation. Short - term prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in coal and oil prices [139]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, PTA's closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton (a 0.7% increase), MEG's increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton (a 3.0% increase), and PX's increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton (a 2.1% increase) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: PTA's basis decreased from 97 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton (a - 112.4% change), MEG's basis decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton (a - 3.9% change), and PX's basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 219 yuan/ton (a - 16.6% change). The TA - EG spread decreased from 433 yuan/ton to 339 yuan/ton (a - 21.7% change), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 333 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton (a - 17.4% change) [16][19][23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Spreads**: For ethylene glycol, the CFR China price increased by 3.1%, the FOB US Gulf price increased by 6.6%, the FD Northwest Europe price decreased by 7.5%, and the ethylene glycol spread (Europe - China) decreased by 54.6% from July 4 to July 31, 2025 [26]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 1, the Asian PX operating load was 73.4% (a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month), and China's was 81.1% (a 4.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). Some devices had unexpected outages or restarts [34]. - **PTA**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6% (a 5.1 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). New devices were put into production, and some existing devices were under maintenance [38]. - **MEG**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.64% (a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 74.04% (a 5.79 - percentage - point increase month - on - month). Some overseas devices were scheduled for maintenance [52][56]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In June 2025, China imported 76.54 million tons of PX, a 0.94% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 450.03 million tons, a 2.38% increase year - on - year [60]. - **PTA**: In June 2025, China exported 25.52 million tons of PTA, a 3.78% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 185.68 million tons, a 16.90% decrease year - on - year [61]. - **MEG**: In June 2025, China's monthly import volume of ethylene glycol was 61.78 million tons, a 2.34% increase month - on - month and a 1.30% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% year - on - year [62]. - **Polyester**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 124.9 million tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 719.2 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [66]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Increase in Downstream Finished - Product Inventory - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [77]. - **MEG**: As of July 28, the port inventory in the main eastern China ports was about 52.1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation was postponed [80]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the polyester operating load was 88.1%, a 2.3% decrease from July 4. The inventory days and cash - flow of some products also changed [83]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports**: In June 2025, textile and apparel exports were 273.1 billion US dollars, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1439.8 billion US dollars, an 0.8% increase [98]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 4, PTA's total position decreased by 202,221 hands, MEG's decreased by 4207 hands, and PX's increased by 23,384 hands [113].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rate of inventory accumulation of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, but the high - inventory pressure persists. The support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Chinese pure benzene processing fee has rebounded due to short - term downstream demand resilience, but the sustainability of high styrene开工 is questionable [3]. - Styrene port inventory has risen rapidly. In July, China's EB maintained high operation, and overseas styrene operation also increased. The export window closed, leading to a rapid decline in styrene basis and production profit. The low operation of PS and ABS has dragged down styrene demand [4]. - For pure benzene, new domestic production capacity is being released intensively, and the inventory problem persists. The basis of port spot for the 2603 contract remains weak. For styrene, it is necessary to wait for further compression of production profit and reduction of production for re - balancing [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pure Benzene Fundamental Situation - In 2025, there are multiple pure benzene production capacity plans, with a planned production capacity of 105 million tons/year to be put into operation in the third quarter, with a production growth rate of about 4.1%. The new production capacity of Yulong will impact the Shandong region [14][15]. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The basis of pure benzene spot to the BZ2603 futures contract and the basis of spot to the second - month paper cargo both reflect high inventory pressure. Overseas, the support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Overseas styrene operation recovery has boosted overseas pure benzene demand, and the pressure of pure benzene arriving at Chinese ports has not further increased, but the volume from South Korea to China continues [23]. Chinese Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - The high operation of styrene has boosted pure benzene demand, but the sustainability of high styrene operation is questionable. The operation of CPL has peaked, and the operation of its downstream nylon filament is still low. The operation of phenol - acetone has declined, while the operation of aniline has rebounded at the bottom [3][31][35]. Chinese Styrene Fundamental Situation EB Domestic New Production Capacity - In 2025, there are new styrene production capacity plans, including Yulong Refining and Chemical Phase I, Shandong Zhongtai Chemical (Jingbo), Jilin Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. Jingbo has carried out trial production [40]. Chinese EB Weekly Operation and Monthly Maintenance Forecast - In July, Chinese styrene maintenance was limited, and high operation continued. There is a maintenance plan for Zhenhai Lyondell in mid - September [48]. EB Basis, Production Profit, Operation Rate, and Inventory - The basis of EB spot to the 09 - month contract has declined significantly. In July, high operation at home and abroad led to a closed export window, rapid increase in port and factory inventory, and a rapid decline in basis and production profit [58]. Overseas Styrene Operation and Cross - Border Price Difference - In July, overseas styrene maintenance recovered, driving up overseas pure benzene demand and reducing the volume of pure benzene from South Korea to China. However, the increase in overseas styrene supply has led to a decline in China's export demand and a rapid weakening of the regional price difference [64][65]. Chinese Styrene Downstream Situation Styrene Downstream Operation Rate - The operation rates of PS and ABS are still low, dragging down styrene demand. The operation of EPS has no bright spots compared with the same period [89]. Styrene Downstream Inventory and Production Profit - The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still exists. The inventory pressure of EPS has increased. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [89].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend. International LPG prices are weak, with a significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing, weak combustion demand restricts upward movement [1]. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Data - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. FEI and CP prices dropped, PP prices declined sharply, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP worsened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG market weakened, with the 08 - 09 spread at - 7 and the 08 - 10 spread at - 411. The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - The PG market oscillated. The basis weakened to 370 (-63), and the inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with Qingdao Yunda adding 1000 lots. External market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio declined [1]. Regional and Spread Data - In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window closed. FEI propane discount continued to fall, and the CP arrival discount oscillated. FEI - MOPJ changed little, at - 47.5 (-3.75) [1]. Profit and Demand Data - PDH profit improved, while MTBE export profit declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly. Chemical demand was strong; PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. Alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan. MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports and overall stable operation. Combustion demand was weak [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The valuation shows that the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are simultaneously contracting, with inventory accumulation. The demand side continues to be in a weak state. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices with a production history of over 20 years. Strategy-wise, there is an opportunity for PP to fluctuate on the short - side, and PE can be bought within a certain range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to the repair of market demand expectations after the alleviation of macro - tense emotions. However, the OPEC+ production increase plan and Sino - US trade uncertainties pose upward resistance. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's previous maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and its downstream price transmission is not smooth. The short - term trend of pure benzene fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Styrene's supply - demand expectation is weak, but it is supported in the short - term by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, with limited upside [44]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side has high maintenance losses in July but there is a restart expectation. The demand side is restricted by the traditional off - season. The port side is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. In the short - term, the cost is lifted by coal, and the 09 contract's fluctuation range moves up. It is advisable to buy the 01 contract at low prices [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the short - term macro - disturbance is intense, and it is recommended to close previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the short - term trading logic is mainly dominated by macro - emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. PTA may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Short - fiber has no obvious short - term driver. Bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation [71]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is in a range - bound pattern. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The future price breakthrough depends on the substantial warming of the demand side [78]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, L2601's closing price rose from 7346 to 7436, with a 1.23% increase [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.99% to 50.3 tons, while PP enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% to 58.1 tons [2]. - **开工率**: PE device's starting rate increased by 0.97% to 79.0%, and PP device's starting rate decreased by 0.4% to 77.0% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On July 25, Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased compared to July 24. For example, Brent rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 0.98% increase [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The rise in oil prices is due to the alleviation of macro - tense emotions and the improvement of demand expectations, but there are still supply - side uncertainties [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products showed different trends. For example, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 0.2% to 5980 yuan per ton [44]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 4.3% to 17.10 tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 8.8% to 15.07 tons [44]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.7% to 77.4%, and the domestic pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.3% to 78.1% [44]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, methanol futures and spot prices increased compared to July 21. For example, MA2601's closing price rose from 2482 to 2550, with a 2.74% increase [47]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.55% to 33.983 tons, and methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 72.6 tons [47]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise starting rate decreased by 1.01% to 70.37, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device starting rate increased by 0.56% to 75.96 [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of caustic soda and PVC - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2593.8 yuan per ton [50]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry starting rate increased by 1.3% to 86.3, and the PVC total starting rate decreased by 0.1% to 75.0 [50]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 13.8% to 21.3 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.7% to 36.8 tons [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (September) rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 1.0% increase [71]. - **开工率**: The Asian PX starting rate remained unchanged at 73.6%, and the PTA starting rate remained unchanged at 79.7% [71]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of urea futures contracts increased compared to July 23. For example, the 01 contract's closing price rose from 1779 to 1796, with a 0.96% increase [75]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 85.88 tons, and the domestic urea port inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.30 tons [78]. - **开工率**: The urea production factory starting rate increased by 1.26% to 83.21 [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures discount has narrowed, and the strong downstream demand for BZ has led to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. The high operating rates of downstream styrene and CPL support the demand, and the increase in polymer MDI operating rate drives up the aniline operating rate. However, the sustainability of CPL's high operating rate is still questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament operating rates. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production operating rates are still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. For styrene, port inventory has further increased, and the EB basis has rapidly declined. Domestically, EB maintains a high operating rate on the supply side, while on the demand side, the operating rates of EPS and PS drag down EB demand [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - The report mentions various basis and spread data of pure benzene and EB, including pure benzene's main basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts of pure benzene, EB's main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts of styrene [1][13][19]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Data on production profits and domestic - foreign spreads of pure benzene and styrene are presented, such as naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profits of styrene, and differences in FOB prices of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [25][26][37]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 million tons (-1.00 million tons), and styrene's East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), and its East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons). The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products and styrene is also given, like the operating rate of styrene is 79.2% (-0.8%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - For styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 310 yuan/ton (+198 yuan/ton), PS production profit is -190 yuan/ton (+98 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 408 yuan/ton (+109 yuan/ton). The operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS are 51.06% (-4.82%), 51.10% (-1.30%), and 65.00% (-0.04%) respectively, and the downstream operating rates are at a seasonal low [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Data on the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products are provided, such as the operating rate of caprolactam is 95.72% (+0.00%), the production profit of caprolactam is -1,895 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), etc. [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4].