Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both declined. Soda ash futures showed a volatile trend driven by market sentiment, and the subsequent fundamentals remained weak. Glass is expected to achieve a fundamental reversal first. Next week, after the end of the meeting expectations, it is expected to emerge from the trough first. [6] - For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, the demand is expected to hover at the bottom, and the price will continue to be under pressure. For glass, although the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production efforts are expected to increase. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week, showing a volatile trend. Glass futures fell 0.46%, with a similar trend to soda ash. Glass is expected to achieve a fundamental reversal first. [6] - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is abundant, demand will hover at the bottom, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply is at a low level, profit has improved, and resumption of production efforts may increase. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is weak. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1150 - 1280, with stop - loss in the range of 1130 - 1300. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 1020 - 1150 is recommended, with stop - loss in the range of 980 - 1180. [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, soda ash and glass futures prices both closed down. [8] - **Spot Prices**: Soda ash spot prices fell, and the basis continued to weaken. Glass spot prices also fell, but the basis strengthened. [13][18] - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to strengthen this week and is expected to weaken next week. [24] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Supply**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, putting pressure on prices. One glass production line was cold - repaired, and overall production remained unchanged. [27][40] - **Profit**: The profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises both increased this week, showing signs of recovery. [33] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass all declined this week and are expected to continue to fall next week. [44] - **Inventory**: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventories increased due to insufficient demand, while glass enterprise inventories decreased, and the overall destocking speed was stable. [48] - **Downstream Orders**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders declined slightly and were at a historical low. [54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the fluctuations in the futures market for coking coal and coke, highlighting a recent increase followed by a pullback in prices due to inventory pressure and policy expectations [1] - There is an ongoing speculation regarding a second round of price increases for coke, indicating potential future price movements in the market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for market participants to closely monitor inventory levels and policy developments, as these factors are critical in shaping future price trends [1] - The discussion suggests that the market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with traders weighing the implications of supply and demand dynamics [1]

国泰海通研究指出，近期中东地缘政治冲突局势逐步降温、中美关系边际改善，以及美国经济韧性尚存 的宏观背景下，全球市场风险偏好持续修复。对业绩景气预期持续上修、市场流动性与风险偏好逐渐改 善的港股相对乐观。 中国银河证券表示，展望未来，预计港股市场总体震荡向上，且以结构性行情为主。在全球权益市场 中，港股绝对估值处于相对低位水平、估值分位数处于历史中上水平，中长期配置价值仍然较高。 华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，市场波动率可能走高，板块轮动重要性上升，近关税扰动脱敏，政策预 期升温，南向资金净流入显著增加，外资同步回流。展望看，港股流动性宽裕的中期逻辑未发生显著变 化，但短期伴随热点板块出现调整，资金再配置已悄然进行，指数层面波动率或将进一步放大。 国海富兰克林基金称，下半年对港股市场持谨慎乐观态度，综合考量当前港股市场所具备的低估值优 势，以及国内政策的持续稳步推进，认为港股有望在 2025 年下半年延续震荡上涨的良好态势。 恒生指数高开1.06%，恒生科技指数涨1.31%。科网股领涨，阿里巴巴、网易涨超2%，京东集团、美 团、快手涨近2%。 关于港股后市 华泰柏瑞基金指出，港股的特色主要集中在互联网、创新药等领 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will likely hover at the bottom, and prices will continue to face pressure. With the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, market sentiment will be the main driver. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract on dips [2]. - For glass, the supply has increased with two glass production lines resuming production, but it remains at a low level. The industry's profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production may increase. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. After the glass price drops, there will be policy rumors to support the bottom. It is recommended to buy put options on rallies and go long on futures on dips [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,092 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1,559,642 hands, down 39,415 hands; glass main contract position is 1,522,202 hands, down 4,105 hands. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 473,312, down 22,482; glass top 20 net position is - 392,954, up 24,900. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 2,815 tons, down 379 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 797 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 46, up 6; glass September - January contract spread is - 92, up 5. Soda ash basis is - 8 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; glass basis is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shahe glass sheets are 1,088 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32% (weekly), unchanged; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68% (weekly), unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 15.84 million tons/year (weekly), up 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 224 (weekly), up 2. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 188.4 million tons (weekly), up 2.06 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 67.102 million weight boxes (weekly), down 1.983 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 16, the national power load hit a new high, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time. The State Council Executive Meeting plans to implement a special action to boost consumption and optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones. It also aims to standardize the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry and urge key car - makers to fulfill payment - term commitments. NVIDIA has restarted the sales of H20 in China, and inquiries have surged. He Lifeng stated that China will promote mutual - benefit and win - win results in the global industrial and supply chains [2]. Macro - aspect - The market is mainly observing whether an important meeting will be held at the end of July and if there will be new statements. There are still short - term policy expectations. Some false rumors are spreading in the short - term market, and commodity sentiment is the dominant factor [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - Supply: Domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, production is flat, supply is still ample, and profits continue to decline. Future production is expected to decrease, and natural - soda production will gradually become the mainstream. Demand: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and both operating rate and profit have improved. Photovoltaic glass is generally flat. Inventory: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - Supply: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and the industry profit has improved. Demand: The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have decreased, and procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly negative trend, with polysilicon futures experiencing a strong upward movement, reaching a high of 44,280.0 CNY/ton and a low of 43,465.0 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 3.96% [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation, the high levels of positions and transactions in polysilicon indicate a strong market sentiment, despite a slight slowdown in price increases. The market remains optimistic due to expectations of production limits and price controls from associations [1] - China Construction Bank Futures noted that the price range for N-type polysilicon in the second week of July varied significantly between 40,000 to 49,000 CNY, influenced by companies' cost structures. Although silicon wafer prices have risen, downstream companies are still purchasing based on demand [1] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that polysilicon futures rebounded close to 43,000 CNY/ton, with the current price of N-type polysilicon stable at 45,500 CNY/ton. The downstream price increases are beginning to transmit costs, with some component companies raising their distributed pricing [2] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, with policy expectations being the main trading logic, despite the futures prices still being at a discount to the spot market [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The intraday view of stock index futures is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For treasury bond futures, both the intraday and medium - term views are bullish [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For aluminum, it is expected to trade at a high level both intraday and in the medium - term. For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, the intraday price is expected to be volatile and strong, and the price is expected to be strong from July to August [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2509 [1]. - **Core Logic**: The marginal slowdown of fundamental repair strengthens policy expectations. The government's strengthened long - cycle assessment of insurance funds is beneficial for the entry of incremental funds. Overseas, the phased settlement of tariff uncertainties has a limited impact on the equity market [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3]. - **Core Logic**: During the tax period, the central bank's injection of medium - term liquidity supports the long - end bond market. The weak domestic fundamentals and low inflation strengthen the expectation of monetary easing. After the release of multiple negative news, the bond market maintains a rebound momentum [3]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials (Aluminum)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [4]. - **Core Logic**: Due to supply - side reforms, the increase in aluminum production capacity is limited. The current social inventory is at a five - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is beneficial for aluminum prices [4]. - **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold long positions in in - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3000, short positions in out - of - the - money put options RB2510 - P - 2900, and short - term short positions in out - of - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3300 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of steel raw materials is expected to ease, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The low inventory of finished steel products and the emergence of multiple positive factors are expected to boost speculative demand [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The steel market is in high - level shock due to the cooling of policy expectations. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved [1]. - The iron ore market shows resilient demand and is in shock operation. In the long - term, it presents a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in range - bound shock. Coke price increase has been implemented, and the profit of coking plants has improved [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state due to the increasing daily consumption in summer. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures closed down yesterday. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures corrected to varying degrees. Spot trading was weak overall, but the willingness to hold prices was strong, and the basis widened. The spot trading volume was 8630 tons [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The GDP in the first half of the year was well - completed. The expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Urban Work Conference were lower than expected, and the real estate data was still under pressure. The crude steel production from January to June decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved, improving the supply - demand relationship. The steel demand has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [2] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The trading sentiment was average, and steel mills mainly replenished stocks on demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.015 million tons, a 6.28% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.631 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply and demand and logic: The molten iron production decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore showed good resilience. Affected by macro - sentiment, the iron ore price rebounded in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [4] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures market continued the pattern of mixed gains and losses yesterday, showing a range - bound operation. The port inventory of imported coal was decreasing, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. After the Nadam Fair, the coal supply at ports is expected to gradually recover. Mainstream steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increase, improving the coking profit [5]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coke, due to the rising raw material prices, the production cost of coking plants increased, and the supply decreased. On the demand side, driven by the premium of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased, and the demand from steel mills was better than expected during the off - season. For coking coal, the supply is gradually recovering but at a limited speed. After the port opens, the supply is expected to further increase. The demand side is active, and downstream enterprises have a good enthusiasm for replenishing stocks [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Shock [6] - Coke: Shock [6] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, as the temperature rises, the power load increases, and the pit - mouth coal price rises steadily. Some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the willingness to raise prices increased, with some coal types rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage of coal, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and the market coal price rose steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption increases, and the downstream demand strengthens. The coal price is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stock - replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategy Not provided in the content.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating upwards [1][2] - Iron ore: Oscillating [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upwards [5][6][7] - Thermal coal: Oscillating upwards in the short - term, supply remains loose in the long - term [8] Core Views - The expectation of policy combinations persists, boosting market sentiment. The off - season demand for steel is better than expected, and the inventory accumulation is delayed. Iron ore shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in the long run, while coking coal and coke are in a supply - tight situation. Thermal coal prices are oscillating upwards in the short term due to increased demand in high - temperature weather, with a long - term supply - loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures closed stronger at the end of trading yesterday, with the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil rising. Spot trading was average, with prices basically stable and spot transactions reaching 10580 tons. China's steel exports in the first half of this year were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Policy expectations persist, and exports exceed expectations, enhancing steel consumption. The off - season demand is better than expected, and inventory accumulation is delayed. Key factors to watch include basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate upwards [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total accumulated transactions at major ports in the country were 955000 tons, a 20.43% increase from the previous day; the accumulated transactions of forward - looking spot goods were 1.69 million tons, a 16.15% increase. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total shipment of 29.87 million tons. The shipment from Brazil increased significantly, while the shipment from non - mainstream regions decreased significantly. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 1.782 million tons from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Although the molten iron output has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the short term, prices rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but in the long run, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Key factors to watch include the molten iron output and inventory changes during the off - season [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance yesterday, mainly oscillating. The import coal ports were closed, inventory was continuously depleted, and traders were more inclined to hold prices [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The first round of price increases for coke is gradually being implemented. Some coking plants are slightly in the red, and the supply has decreased. On the demand side, molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level in the same period, and steel mills' profits are acceptable. Coke inventory has slightly increased. For coking coal, the supply has recovered, but the resumption of production is slow. On the demand side, trading is more active, and the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased, leading to a decrease in coal mine inventory. Overall, the supply of coking coal and coke is tight [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate upwards [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: At the production sites, the procurement prices of large - scale purchasers at stations have increased, and the surrounding stations are actively transporting coal. Most coal mines with high cost - effectiveness are selling smoothly, and prices are rising steadily. With the continuous high - temperature weather, the power load has increased, and the pit - mouth coal prices continue to rise. At ports, the upstream shipping costs have increased, there is a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement has been completed in stages. As the high - temperature range expands, coal consumption increases, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, providing some support for market prices. For imported coal, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with domestic winning bids, with low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - effectiveness advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In July, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and production capacity is gradually being released. With the rising temperature, demand has strengthened. In the short term, coal prices are oscillating upwards. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Key factors to watch include the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8]

华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，市场波动率可能走高，板块轮动重要性上升，近关税扰动脱敏，政策预 期升温，南向资金净流入显著增加，外资同步回流。展望看，港股流动性宽裕的中期逻辑未发生显著变 化，但短期伴随热点板块出现调整，资金再配置已悄然进行，指数层面波动率或将进一步放大。 国海富兰克林基金称，下半年对港股市场持谨慎乐观态度，综合考量当前港股市场所具备的低估值优 势，以及国内政策的持续稳步推进，认为港股有望在 2025 年下半年延续震荡上涨的良好态势。 中国银河证券分析指出，近期全球宏观风险再次升温预期，市场的风险偏好受到影响。在全球权益市场 中，港股绝对估值处于相对低位水平、估值分位数处于历史中上水平，中长期配置价值仍然较高。展望 后市，科技板块依然具备较高投资机会。主要由于科技板块政策支持力度较大，盈利增速居前，估值处 于历史中低水平，第二，在国内促消费政策刺激下，消费行业业绩增速预期改善，估值相对较低的港股 消费股有望上涨，重点关注医药行业和可选消费行业。而在海内外不确定性因素的扰动下，高股息标也 可以为投资者提供较为稳定的回报。 本文转自"腾讯自选股"；智通财经编辑：刘璇。 恒生指数高开0.32%，恒生科技 ...

润改善，后续复产力度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，7月房地产数据依旧继续下滑，下游深加 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1241 139 | 24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 8 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1102 1532487 | 16 27765 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1395908 | -2793 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -411546 | -18978 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -365065 | -34435 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3394 | -70 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 797 | 797 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -45 | -4 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -94 | -10 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -41 | - ...