Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends. Some are expected to be in short - term shock, some may rebound in the long - term, and some are expected to be weak in the short - term and improve later [1][3][4]. - The supply and demand relationship is the main factor affecting the price trends of commodities, including factors such as production, inventory, and market demand [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The demand for coking coal has support due to the profit repair of coking enterprises and high pig iron output. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Coking Coal Data**: 314 independent coal washing plants have a capacity utilization rate of 36.1% (down 0.46% month - on - month), a daily refined coal output of 25.7 tons (down 0.7 tons month - on - month), and a refined coal inventory of 294.8 tons (down 2.2 tons month - on - month) [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high - level production, stable downstream demand, and increasing port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 2385. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Methanol Data**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2305 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton), the port inventory is 107.6 tons (up 5.42 tons week - on - week), the production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons (up 1.52 tons week - on - week), and the order backlog is 20.74 tons (down 1.2 tons week - on - week) [1]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has support, and the downstream demand is resilient. However, production is increasing, and there is an over - capacity problem. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term outlook is not optimistic [5]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Data**: The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is 34.32% (up 0.56% week - on - week), and the daily output is 15590 tons (up 4.45% week - on - week, an increase of 665 tons) [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with pressure at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [7]. - **Soda Ash Data**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1319 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week), and the manufacturer's total inventory is 189.38 tons (up 1.54% week - on - week) [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The supply of polypropylene is abundant, and the market price is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 7000. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. - **Polypropylene Data**: The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6997 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate is 78.41% (down 0.13% day - on - day), and the commercial inventory is 80.06 tons (down 2.68 tons week - on - week) [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of domestic soybeans will be weakly stable in the short - term [6]. - **Soybeans Data**: The expected soybean crushing volume in August is nearly 10 million tons, and the expected output of soybean meal is about 8 million tons, higher than the average monthly consumption in August in the past three years [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from August 1 - 20 increased significantly. It is expected that the price of palm oil will be strongly shocked at a high level in the short - term [6]. - **Palm Oil Data**: According to Amspec, the export volume from August 1 - 20 is 869780 tons (up 17.48% month - on - month); according to ITS, it is 929051 tons (up 13.61% month - on - month) [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The national pig price is adjusted strongly, and the market supply and demand are in a stalemate. The LH2511 contract has support at 13700. Farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [3]. - **Live Pigs Data**: On August 20, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.04 yuan/kg (down 0.8% from the previous day), and the price of eggs is 7.62 yuan/kg (down 1.4% from the previous day) [3]. Metals - **Rebar**: The steel price may be in a weak shock in the short - term. As the northern region implements production - restriction measures, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market will be relieved, and the steel price is expected to stop falling and rebound [4]. - **Rebar Data**: On August 20, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities in the country is 3338 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day) [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although it is predicted that the supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market will increase, the current inventory has decreased significantly, providing an atmosphere for the oil price to rebound. Conservative traders can wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil Data**: The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a decrease of 1.41%), and the gasoline inventory decreased by 2.72 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day on August 15 [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The supply of rubber is stable, and the social inventory has little change. The demand side lacks driving force. It is recommended to use the range - shock thinking [11]. - **Rubber Data**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory increased by 7500 tons to 1.285 million tons (an increase of 0.6%), among which the dark - colored rubber inventory is 806,000 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week), and the light - colored rubber inventory is 479,000 tons (down 0.4% week - on - week) [11]. - **Gold**: The geopolitical situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has eased, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Gold has a short - term rebound demand but is still in a weak shock in the medium - term [8]. - **Silver**: The upward momentum of the U.S. dollar index has weakened, which is beneficial to precious metals. The silver market is expected to be in a long - term shock. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term funds in the bond market are tight, and the shock attribute of treasury bonds is strengthened. It is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [9]. - **Treasury Bonds Data**: Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose. The overnight variety rose 0.9BP to 1.473%, the 7 - day variety rose 1.7BP to 1.534%, the 14 - day variety fell 0.3BP to 1.596%, and the 1 - month variety rose 0.4BP to 1.532% [9]. - **PTA**: PTA has short - term support but weak mid - term expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PTA Data**: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 16 - 26 days [10].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 21 日 工业硅：情绪提振 多晶硅：报价抬升，情绪继续提振 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,390 | -235 | -210 | -870 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 561,795 | 123,482 | 51,515 | -699,135 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 279,868 | -6,737 | -4,632 | -103,428 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,875 | -385 | 585 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 704,931 | 124,324 | 309,286 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 150,086 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 21 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish due to high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the futures price is predicted to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2510 contract is expected to oscillate between 3432 - 3476 [7][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high - level crude oil costs providing some support [12] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and increasing expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13] - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume is estimated at 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease month - on - month. The refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but the supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase month - on - month. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Other Aspects**: On August 20, the Shandong spot price is 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, a 1.75% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increase [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the values, previous values, and percentage changes of various contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts), inventory (weekly inventory of social, factory, and port diluted asphalt), production, output, and profit - related indicators [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report presents the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt [37][40] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the weekly shipment volume, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly production, the price of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil and its monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, weekly开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation, etc. [43][45][48][52][55][58][60] - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - factory inventory, in - factory inventory inventory ratio, etc. [63][67][71] - **Import - Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, roller sales), asphalt开工率 (heavy - traffic asphalt, classified by use), and downstream开工情况 (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][83][86][90][95][98][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from August 2025 to September 2024, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [106][107]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低开震荡，下午受宏观消息提振，盘面快速上行，日内现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走强，少量 聚酯工厂补货。8月货在09贴水5~0附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4660~4720附近。9月上在09+10有成交，9月中09+15附近有成 交，9月中下在09+20有成交。8月仓单在09贴水10~12有成交。今日主流现货基差在09-2。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期加工差维持低位，部分PTA装置检修，加之聚酯负荷回升，8月PTA暂无累库压力，价格上，油价承压运行，成本 端缺乏支撑，预计短 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Glass 2601 futures is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Continued weak demand and inventory accumulation may further pressure prices, while improved demand or policy incentives could lead to price stabilization and recovery [3]. - The short - term stock index futures market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [6]. - The probability of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to the gold market. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there will be a small - scale platform oscillation in the short term [10]. - Iron ore is in a callback phase and should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support near the lower important support level [13]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has improved slightly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. Consider going long at low prices after the price stabilizes [16]. - The palm oil market should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory outlook due to increased inventory pressure and lack of demand [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass 2601 Futures - From August 14 - 20, the closing price on August 14 was 1,220 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37%. The production line remained unchanged, the start - up rate and weekly output were flat, but the manufacturer's inventory increased. From August 19 - 20, the market declined unilaterally, and the main contract on the 20th closed down 4.36% at 1,166 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,644,752 [3]. - The supply - side daily melting is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is at a high level with weak production and sales [3]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a positive line. The fiscal revenue growth rate turned positive in the first seven months, and the economic sentiment level rebounded. The bond market had a significant correction [6]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut and benefiting the gold market [10]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a callback. Technically, it continues to adjust and should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation. The steel mill's profit has improved, and the molten iron output remains high, with strong fundamental support, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [13][14]. Glass - The supply - demand situation of glass has improved slightly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. There is no actual policy benefit during the current macro - vacuum period [16][17]. Palm Oil - The cumulative increase in the recent oil market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has decreased, and the profit - taking pressure has increased [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is strong due to concerns about supply shortages after China imposed high margins on Canadian rapeseed imports. The pork market is weak as group pig enterprises increase sales and high - temperature weather suppresses demand. The soybean oil market is in adjustment with high output and rising inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Rapeseed meal is strong and is expected to remain at a high level. Pork prices are falling and may continue to decline. Soybean oil prices are in adjustment and the correction may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal - The main rapeseed meal 2601 contract and soybean meal 2601 contract are both in an upward trend. High import costs and low domestic inventories support rapeseed meal prices, while uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and high import costs support soybean meal prices. Technically, they are strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [2]. 3.2.2 Pork - The main pork 2511 contract is in a downward trend. Supply is abundant as group pig enterprises and散户猪场 increase sales, and demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [3][5]. 3.2.3 Corn - The main corn 2511 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the decline was only narrowed. Supply is abundant due to continuous auctions and upcoming new corn, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main egg 2510 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the downward trend remains. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous cold - storage egg release, and weak demand lead to a supply - pressure situation. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [8]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main palm oil 2601 contract is slightly adjusted but remains at a high level. Strong exports from Malaysia and concerns about future supply support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil 2601 contract has a significant adjustment. High soybean imports and rising inventory lead to a decline in prices. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [12]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The main cotton 2601 contract is in a falling and oscillating state. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop supply is expected to increase. Downstream demand shows some improvement but is still weak overall. The strategy is short - term trading [14]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main red date 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, remaining at a high level. Concerns about reduced production in Xinjiang and expected consumption recovery support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [16]. 3.2.9 White Sugar - The main white sugar 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, showing an upward trend. The domestic market atmosphere is warming up, but increasing imports bring supply pressure. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main apple 2510 contract breaks down. The increase in early - maturing apple supply and low inventory lead to price declines. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Corn**: Domestically, new corn in the Northeast will be listed in September, leading to increased willingness of grain holders to sell and reduced trade - grain inventory. However, the market supply is relatively loose due to the release of rotation grain and continuous auctions of imported corn. Processing enterprises rely on contract grain or inventory, with insufficient procurement and limited demand support. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of operations of previously - shut - down enterprises, the supply pressure has increased. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated bearishly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2170 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 75 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 937236 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 102120 lots, a decrease of 8778 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 110775 lots, a decrease of 2706 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 193999 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22794 lots, an increase of 39 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, with no change [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract CS - C is 351 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 403 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1549876 contracts, a decrease of 67625 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133174 contracts, a decrease of 25206 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main contract is 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - **Substitute**: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Production and Sowing Area**: The predicted yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The sowing areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively. The US yield prediction has decreased by 2.92 million tons, and the sowing area has decreased by 0.25 million hectares [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 75.1 million tons, 247 million tons, and 340.2 million tons respectively, all showing decreases; the import volume is 6 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production of feed is 2937.7 million tons, an increase of 175.6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 113 yuan/ton, - 56 yuan/ton, and - 46 yuan/ton respectively, all showing improvements [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Inventory**: The consumption of deep - processed corn is 114.06 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42% and 52.3% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.91%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.88%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 9.46% and 9.45% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ProFarmer organization conducted an annual inspection of crops in the Midwest. In Ohio, the corn yield potential is at the highest level in at least 22 years, but drought may limit the yield at the autumn harvest. In South Dakota, the corn yield per unit area is at the highest level since 2020 due to sufficient moisture. The increase in planting area and yield per unit area has led to significant increases in the US corn yield and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season, causing the international corn price to decline [2].