农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米主力 2605 合约增仓上行。春节后开盘首日，玉米增仓上行，期价日 波动幅度加大，期现市场情绪继续好转。现货市场方面，春节期间东北粮点玉米 | 震荡偏强 | | | 收购价格稳中略偏强运行。春节前期货市场表现偏强，对现货市场形成一定的带 | | | | 动。华北地区春节期间玉米价格整体偏强运行。基层玉米购销尚未恢复，大部分 | | | | 粮点正月初八以后陆续开始收购，但农户售粮恢复较慢。下游深加工企业从正月 | | | | 初四开始陆续启动玉米收购，经过春节期间消耗，企业都有补库需求，玉米价格 | | | | 整体呈现偏强表现。整体来看，节后现货市场提价收购，现货补涨，期、现涨价 | | | | 相互呼应，市场情绪转强，获利多单谨慎参与。 | | | 豆粕 | 周二，CBOT 大豆收高，市场对美动荡的关税担忧有所缓解。美豆粕和美豆油跟 随走高。美豆国内强劲需求也支撑市场。巴西大豆完成 32%收割，偏慢。另外， 巴西 2 月大豆出口预计 1069 万吨， ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二 （2 月 24 日） A 股迎来马年开门红，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.87%，收报 4117.41 点；深 证成指涨 1.36%，收报 14291.57 点；创业板指涨 0.99%，收报 3308.26 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 22184 亿，较 上一交易日放量 2193 亿。 沪深 300 指数 2 月 24 日强势。收盘 4707.54，环比上涨 47.14。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】2 月 24 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1641.3，环比下跌 38.1。 2 月 24 日焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1115.5 元，环比下跌 18.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦企维持正常运行负荷持稳。库存受春节物流运输影响，场内库存有所累库。需求，钢厂开工有所下 滑，铁水产量支撑有限，终端需求处淡季，对焦炭的需求进一步削弱。 焦煤：焦企维持前期负荷。库存去库明显，多数处偏低水平。利润维持在盈亏平衡线附近。进口，港口库存 有所下降，但整体供需格局仍然偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 0.34% overnight. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow at a high rate. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The copper price may enter an adjustment phase in the short term [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.55% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the supply of concentrate is temporarily tight. Smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 101,210 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 150 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 13,195 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 85.04 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 241,825 tons - LME inventory daily change: 6,675 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 23,450 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 160 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 3,111 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 23.62 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 473,550 tons - LME inventory daily change: - 2,000 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 24,630 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 25 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 3,388 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 31.25 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 101,550 tons - LME inventory daily change: - 25 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 137,500 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 5,500 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 17,915 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 201.05 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 287,706 tons - LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 16,795 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: - 125 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 1,960 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 46.44 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 286,325 tons - LME inventory daily change: - 800 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 384,450 yuan/ton - Domestic basis: 2,010 yuan/ton - Previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price: 50,300 dollars/ton - LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M): - 43.00 dollars/ton - LME inventory: 7,675 tons - LME inventory daily change: 15 tons [2]

2026年02月25日 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期不佳，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料与现货报价补跌，低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：现货报价补跌，低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.5 | -0.74% | | | I2605 | | 740.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 519,204 | 24,654 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 塑料 2701 | 6805 | 6883 | 6929 | 6798 | 126 | 1.86 | 1308 | 72 | | 塑料 2605 | 6730 | 6820 | 6855 | 6707 | 139 | 2.08 | 482234 | -1960 | | 塑料 2609 | 6757 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为6 | 8万吨 . | 环比有所减少4 ， | 22% . | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 上周工业硅需求为6 ， | | 7万吨 ， . | 环比增长11 | 67% . . | 需求有所抬 | | | | | | 升 多晶硅库存为34 9万吨 . . | ， | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片盈利 ， | 组件盈 | | | | | | 利 有机硅库存为47200吨 ； | ， | 处于低位 ， | | 有机硅生产利润为3250元/吨 | 处 ， | | | | | | 于盈利状态 其综合开工率为64 ， | . | 02% ， | 环比持平 ， | 低于历史同期平均水 | | | | | 1 | 基本面 : | 平 铝合金锭库存为6 ； . | 85万吨 ， | 处于高位 ， | | 进口利润为245元/ ...

| 序号 | 言约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天价 | 荣价 | 陈相对于 | 果用 | 英语 | 成交通 | 排跌 | 持包量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 164500 | 1375 | 164500 | 164540 | 2.17% | 80 | 1 | 1375 | 3500 | 365128 | -52 | | 2 | 20号胶2S04 m | 13950 | 23 | 13945 | 13950 | 2.12% | 6 | 1 | 20825 | 290 | 47870 | 348 | | 3 | 液体系202 m | 1184 | 6 | 1183 | 1184 | 1.98% | 103 | 665 | 144466 | 23 | 1146126 | -3307 | | पं | 护锡2803 M | 394290 | 163 | 394100 | 394300 | 1.97% | 4 | 3 | 76966 | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/02/ 10-0925 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: China's 1-year and 5-year LPR remain unchanged (PBOC). Prices: Most equity ...

发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 92067 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 746349 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日均 线，60 日均线，最低 3005，最高 3060，收于 3027 元/吨，下跌 27 元/吨，跌幅 0.88%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3210 元/吨，相 比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 3，基差：期货贴水现货 183 元/吨。基差仍然较大。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：节前螺纹钢周度产量由高位回落。2026 年 2 月 13 日当周， 螺纹钢产量为 169.16 万吨，较前一周减少 22.52 万吨，主要因电炉钢厂集 中检修。长流程钢厂仍维持较高开工率，但整体供应压力较 1 月峰值有所缓 解。 需求端：终端需求季节性萎缩显著。2 月上旬，237 家主流贸易商建 筑钢材日均成交量降至约 2.8 万吨，环比下降超 20%；表观消费量连续三周 回落，2 月 13 日当周降至约 147.6 万吨， ...

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased from 3,935.0 yuan/ton on February 12, 2026, to 3,899.0 yuan/ton on February 13, 2026, a drop of 36.0 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,605.0 yuan/ton to 3,560.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton or 1.25%. The basis (spot minus futures) was -339 yuan/ton, with the negative value deepening, indicating an expanding discount of the spot market relative to the futures [1]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 437,707 lots to 430,898 lots, a reduction of 6,809 lots or 1.56%. The trading volume declined from 200,272 lots to 189,398 lots, a decrease of 10,874 lots or 5.43%. Both open interest and trading volume decreased, suggesting a weakening short - term speculative sentiment and an increase in market wait - and - see atmosphere [1]. *** Analysis of Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate at 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate at 58.64%, showing no changes. However, the profits from oil - based, coal - based, and natural - gas - based production all declined significantly. For example, the profit from ethylene - SD oxidation method dropped from - 755.0 yuan/ton to - 950.7 yuan/ton, the coal - based profit decreased from - 50.53 yuan/ton to - 130.13 yuan/ton, and the natural - gas - based profit fell from 350.0 yuan/ton to 280.0 yuan/ton. Despite the profit decline, the operating rate remained unchanged, indicating a rigid supply [1]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no changes. This indicates that the terminal demand is stable but has not improved. With the high - level stability of polyester and loom loads, the demand side provides limited support and does not drive up prices [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 897,000 tons to 935,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory increased, reflecting an increase in arriving goods or insufficient shipments. The supply - demand pattern remains loose [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The price of ethylene glycol is likely to continue to face pressure, with a possible low - level oscillation or further decline. The reasons are as follows: The profits of ethylene glycol production have been compressed, and all types of production methods have seen a decline in profits, which may be due to rising raw material costs or falling product prices. Although there is no direct data on the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, the profit decline implies that costs may have increased or product prices have decreased. The downstream demand remains stable, but the supply is rigid, and the port inventory has increased, putting greater pressure on the market [31][34].