Core Viewpoint - The strong labor market, increase in real income, and robust private sector balance sheets are supporting consumer spending [1] Group 1 - The labor market remains strong, contributing positively to economic stability [1] - Real income has seen an increase, which enhances consumer purchasing power [1] - Private sector balance sheets are described as robust, indicating financial health and capacity for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange (北交所) has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with the North 50 Index rising by 39.45%, positioning it among the top global stock indices. The outlook for the second half remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on dividend, consumption, and innovation as key investment themes [1][6]. Market Performance and Drivers - The North Exchange's strong performance in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by policy benefits, followed by liquidity improvements and valuation recovery. However, the market is currently experiencing a degree of valuation bubble that needs to be addressed through earnings growth [2][5]. - The market is expected to maintain a high level of volatility and correlation with domestic markets, influenced by the characteristics of small and innovative companies listed on the North Exchange [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The North Exchange is positioned for continued growth, focusing on supporting innovative small and medium enterprises, particularly in advanced manufacturing and modern services. This aligns with national strategies to foster strategic emerging industries [3][6]. - Investment strategies should balance defensive and offensive positions, with dividends serving as a shield and domestic demand and innovation as the spear. The emphasis on stabilizing growth policies and enhancing domestic consumption is expected to create opportunities in cyclical core assets [7]. Future Outlook - The North Exchange is anticipated to continue its robust development, with significant potential for expansion and improvement in company quality. The market is likely to see increased attention from institutional investors, which could lead to substantial growth [3][4]. - Future reforms and measures, such as high-quality expansion of companies and the introduction of specialized indices, are expected to attract more market interest and investment [3][4].

Economic Overview - China's GDP reached 66 trillion RMB, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 9.19 trillion USD, accounting for 62% of the US GDP [1][14] - The first half of the year saw total imports and exports of 21.8 trillion RMB, with exports at 13 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% [3] Export Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in exports to the US, overall exports remained positive, driven by increased trade with ASEAN, which saw a 13% rise, making it the largest buyer [3] - Exports to the EU increased by 6.6%, while Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa experienced double-digit growth [3] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, but excluding real estate, the growth rate surged to 6.6% [6] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11%, but the decline narrowed from 14% at the beginning of the year to 9% by June, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market [8] Manufacturing Sector - The industrial growth rate for large-scale manufacturing was 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing exceeding 10% and high-tech manufacturing at 9.5%, indicating a shift of investment towards sectors capable of producing advanced technologies [8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales totaled 24.5 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at -0.1%, suggesting weak demand [10] - Consumer sentiment is affected by concerns over housing, education, and healthcare costs, leading to increased savings rather than spending [11][12] Future Outlook - The stability of infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is expected to continue, while the recovery of the real estate market hinges on consumer willingness to take on debt [7] - The economic landscape is characterized by a search for new markets in exports, structural adjustments in investments, and cautious consumer spending [16]

东吴证券研究显示，仓位方面，二季度"固收+"基金整体降低了含权仓位的比例，提高了债券和现金类 资产仓位，转债资产仓位整体下降0.54百分点。 东吴证券首席经济学家、研究所联席所长芦哲分析认为，转债指数在二季度连创新高，但整体仓位下 降，原因包括：一是转债规模退出较多，但"固收+"基金整体仍持续净申购，转债仓位被动下降；二是6 月转债估值、小微盘指数达到相对高位，主线行情回调且遭遇"黑天鹅"事件，部分资金趋于谨慎，降低 了权益仓位；三是市场未出现明显做多或做空理由，主题轮动较快，资金缺少一致性方向。 "+"方面关注科技成长、制造、医药、消费等领域 【导读】"固收+"年内最高业绩近30%，多只产品份额大增 在愈加复杂多变的市场环境中，顺应攻守兼备的投资需求，"固收+"品类重回大众视野。今年以来，"固 收+"基金九成以上实现正收益，最高业绩近30%。不少"固收+"基金二季度份额大增，最多环比增长超 63倍。 展望下半年，多位业内人士表示对市场较为乐观，重点关注科技成长、制造、医药、消费等领域。此 外，预期货币政策可能维持宽松，债市仍有较好的投资机会。 "固收+"基金年内最高业绩近30% 多只产品份额大增 数据显示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment and its implications for investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding both domestic and international factors affecting market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Fundamentals - The report highlights the resilience of the domestic economy, noting that key indicators such as industrial profits and consumer spending remain robust despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It points out the dual mission of consumption in driving economic growth while also addressing structural challenges within the economy [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Insights - The analysis indicates a trend of increasing financial support from the government to stabilize market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector [4]. - It discusses the implications of monetary policy adjustments and the need for careful monitoring of financial indicators to gauge future economic performance [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The article reviews recent policy measures aimed at fostering economic growth and stability, emphasizing the ongoing commitment to reform and opening up [4]. - It notes the significance of fiscal policies in supporting key sectors and the potential for new policies to emerge in response to evolving economic conditions [4]. Group 4: International Context - The report examines the impact of global economic trends, including U.S. monetary policy and trade dynamics, on the domestic market [3][4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding international economic signals to make informed investment decisions [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Consumption, tariffs, and innovation are the key concerns of active equity fund managers in the second - quarter reports. The trend keywords include repair, recovery, and rebound; industry - related keywords are technology, military, and banking; theme keywords are computing power, dividends, and Hong Kong stocks; event - related keywords are exports, uncertainties, and trade [3][9]. - In Q2 2025, the performance of active equity funds declined slightly compared to the previous quarter, with about 70% of them achieving positive returns and a median return of 2.05%. Funds with leading performance in Q2 were heavily invested in industries such as pharmaceutical biology, communication, and electronics [3][14]. - The overall position of active equity funds increased in Q2, with the average stock position rising to 87.33% (+1.10%) and the Hong Kong stock position also significantly increasing (+1.22%). The average Hong Kong stock position of Hong Kong stock funds reached 92.71% (+3.11%) [3][22]. - Active equity funds reduced their holdings in advanced manufacturing and consumption sectors in Q2 and increased their positions in finance, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors. The communication and pharmaceutical biology industries had the most significant increases in the allocation ratio of heavy - holding stocks, while the food and beverage industry had the most significant reduction [3][24]. - The new - issue market of active equity funds showed signs of recovery in Q2. The Dongfanghong Core Value, managed by Zhou Yun, was the largest - scale new - issue active equity fund this quarter, with an issue scale of 1.991 billion yuan and 14,600 accounts. There were 10 new - issue active equity funds with a scale of over 1 billion yuan [3][34]. - Guojin Fund had the best average performance of active equity funds in Q2 2025, with an average return of 6.91%. The Guojin Quantitative Multi - Factor, managed by Ma Fang and Yao Jiahong, performed the best, achieving a return of 13.76% in Q2 [37]. - Pharmaceutical and financial real - estate funds outperformed other sectors in Q2, while new - energy and advanced - manufacturing funds showed relatively weak performance. The small - cap growth style was dominant in Q2, with the median return of small - cap growth products reaching 9.92%, while the mid - cap value style products generally performed poorly, with a median performance of about 0.78% [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fund Second - Quarter Report Investment Outlook Keywords: Consumption as the Key Focus, High Attention on Tariffs and Innovation - Consumption, tariffs, and innovation are the key concerns of active equity fund managers in the second - quarter reports. The trend keywords include repair, recovery, and rebound; industry - related keywords are technology, military, and banking; theme keywords are computing power, dividends, and Hong Kong stocks; event - related keywords are exports, uncertainties, and trade [9]. - Some fund managers' investment strategies and operation analyses are summarized, including value - oriented strategies, AI and technology - focused strategies, and consumption - and pharmaceutical - oriented strategies [12][13] 3.2 Performance and Scale Dimension: Slight Decline in Q2 Performance, Slight Recovery in the New - Issue Market - The performance of active equity funds in Q2 2025 declined slightly compared to the previous quarter, with about 70% of them achieving positive returns and a median return of 2.05%. Most funds' performance ranged from - 3% to 10%, and 71 funds achieved returns of over 20% [14]. - The top 20 active equity funds in Q2 were mainly invested in industries such as pharmaceutical biology, communication, and electronics. Some products with a high proportion of Hong Kong stock allocations, mostly focusing on the pharmaceutical sector, also performed well [17]. - The overall position of active equity funds increased in Q2, with the average stock position rising to 87.33% (+1.10%) and the Hong Kong stock position also significantly increasing (+1.22%). The average Hong Kong stock position of Hong Kong stock funds reached 92.71% (+3.11%). The allocation ratio of heavy - holding stocks in CSI 300 components decreased, while that in CSI 1000, Hong Kong stocks, and the STAR Market increased [22]. - Active equity funds reduced their holdings in advanced manufacturing and consumption sectors in Q2 and increased their positions in finance, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors. The communication and pharmaceutical biology industries had the most significant increases in the allocation ratio of heavy - holding stocks, while the food and beverage industry had the most significant reduction [24]. - E Fund Blue Chip Select remained the largest - scale active equity fund. Some large - scale products showed performance recovery in Q2, but their shares continued to decline [30]. - In Q2, the estimated net subscription amounts of products such as Huatai - PineBridge Innovative Medicine and Winwin Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection were the highest, both exceeding 2.8 billion yuan. The Dongfanghong Core Value was the largest - scale new - issue active equity fund this quarter, with an issue scale of 1.991 billion yuan and 14,600 accounts. There were 10 new - issue active equity funds with a scale of over 1 billion yuan [34]. - There was no obvious phenomenon of chasing rising and selling falling in Q2. Although a small number of high - performance products had significant share increases, the correlation between performance and share changes was weak overall [36][37] 3.3 Fund Company Dimension: Guojin Fund Performed Well in Q2 - Guojin Fund had the best average performance of active equity funds in Q2 2025, with an average return of 6.91%. The Guojin Quantitative Multi - Factor, managed by Ma Fang and Yao Jiahong, performed the best, achieving a return of 13.76% in Q2. Other well - performing fund companies included Ruiyuan Fund, Winwin Fund, and Caitong Securities Asset Management [37]. - E Fund remained the company with the largest active equity fund management scale in Q2, with a scale of 220.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous quarter. Other large - scale fund companies included China Europe Fund, Fullgoal Fund, GF Fund, and Huatai - PineBridge Fund [38]. - The top - performing fund companies in Q2 over - allocated industries such as computers and non - bank finance and under - allocated industries such as electronics, food and beverage, and power equipment. Some companies also had obvious over - or under - allocation in certain industries [42]. - Large - scale fund companies generally under - allocated sectors such as electronics and food and beverage and over - allocated sectors such as banks, media, and household appliances [44] 3.4 Investment Strategy Comparison: Small - Cap Growth Style Funds Significantly Outperformed - Pharmaceutical and financial real - estate funds outperformed other sectors in Q2, while new - energy and advanced - manufacturing funds showed relatively weak performance [3]. - The small - cap growth style was dominant in Q2, with the median return of small - cap growth products reaching 9.92%, while the mid - cap value style products generally performed poorly, with a median performance of about 0.78% [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The retail sector shows a stable overall performance in 2025, with some companies demonstrating positive trends. The second quarter earnings forecasts are being disclosed, and companies are actively positioning themselves for growth [8] - The new consumption landscape remains vibrant, with key players such as Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and others expected to perform well [8] - Retail transformation continues, with traditional retailers like Yonghui Supermarket and others making significant adjustments to their operations [8] Summary by Sections Retail Sector - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is in line with expectations. Excluding petroleum and automotive factors, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 35,702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1] - Various categories showed different growth rates, with essential goods like food and beverages increasing by 8.7%, while optional categories like furniture and automobiles experienced a slowdown [1] Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is expected to see a decline in visitor numbers and revenue growth in Q2 due to various factors, but companies are improving their capabilities through IP, products, and marketing [2] - The hotel sector is showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang Hotels forecasting a net profit of 3.2-3.6 billion yuan for Q2, despite a year-on-year decline of 50.7%-44.7% [2] Food and Beverage - Some restaurant brands have shown positive performance in June, with Guoquan expecting a core operating profit of 1.8-2.1 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44%-68% [3] - The tea beverage sector is anticipated to benefit in Q3, maintaining relatively high growth rates [3] Retail Transformation - Traditional retail companies are undergoing significant transformations, with Yonghui Supermarket adjusting 124 stores and closing 227 in the first half of 2025 [4] - Specialized chains like mother and baby stores and Miniso are expected to see improved growth rates in Q2 [4] Cross-Border Trade - The small commodity city in Yiwu has seen strong demand in the潮玩 and skincare sectors, with bidding results exceeding expectations [7] - The overall growth rate of the cross-border sector may experience a slight decline due to varying tariff impacts [7] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and others in the retail transformation space [8] - In the tourism sector, companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Songcheng Performance are expected to perform well [8]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Group 1 - Consumption is emphasized as the main engine driving economic growth, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and consumption as a stabilizing force [1] - Various policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as trade-in programs for consumer goods, have led to a release of domestic consumption demand and increased market vitality [1] - The tourism sector is experiencing a surge, with events like the 2025 Chongli 168 Super Trail Race attracting over 170,000 visitors, marking a year-on-year increase of over 70% [1] Group 2 - Night economy is highlighted as a key indicator of consumption activity, with new night market zones in Zhangye, Gansu, attracting over 80,000 visitors in a single day, a 40% increase compared to last year [2] - There is a notable rise in family-oriented travel and leisure activities during the summer, with significant growth in related service consumption [2][3] - The home appliance market is witnessing a sales boom, particularly in energy-efficient cooling appliances, driven by trade-in policies and consumer incentives [3] Group 3 - The "first launch" economy is becoming a focal point in various markets, with cities like Tianjin implementing measures to promote this sector [3] - In the first half of the year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth [3][4] - Continued efforts are expected to enhance consumption policies, improve the consumption environment, and increase the supply of quality consumer goods [4]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold and copper prices are experiencing fluctuations upward, while oil prices are on the rise [1] - The gold price has recently declined due to a rebound in June CPI data, a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening dollar index [12] - The prices of major commodities such as rebar and thermal coal continue to rise, while the price of cement is on a downward trend [11] Group 2: Consumer Market Analysis - New home sales are experiencing an expanded decline, while the sales of used cars are slightly recovering, and the average price of home appliances has mostly decreased year-on-year [3] - Service consumption shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in foot traffic in commercial areas, but a decline in movie box office revenues [4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are declining, with wholesale sales increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Insights - Export activities are showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in the growth rate of departing ships' cargo weight and a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has increased, while U.S. retailers and wholesalers are experiencing a year-on-year decline in inventory levels [7][6] Group 4: Production Trends - The production of rebar is decreasing, and inventory levels are continuing to drop, leading to a rise in prices due to market sentiment and cost support [9] - High temperatures are increasing daily coal consumption at power plants, which is positively impacting market sentiment and leading to a rise in coal prices [10] Group 5: Price Movements - The article notes that the prices of various commodities have shown a decline recently, with specific mention of the continuous rise in domestic pork wholesale prices and the recovery of glass prices [11] - The article highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly the stability of copper and oil prices amidst geopolitical influences [12]