消息面 美国农业部：截至10月9日当周，美国2025/2026年度豆油出口净销售为0.2万吨，前一周为-1.2万吨； 2026/2027年度豆油净销售0万吨，前一周为1.1万吨；美国2025/2026年度豆油出口装船0.2万吨，前一周 为0.2万吨。 监测数据显示，截止到2025年第47周末，国内豆油库存量为140.4万吨，较上周的137.3万吨增加3.1万 吨，环比增加2.28%。其中：沿海库存量为127.5万吨，较上周的124.4万吨增加3.1万吨，环比增加 2.44%。 11月25日，豆油前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓50.50万手，空单持仓64.18万手，多空比 0.79。净持仓为-13.69万手，相较上日增加5807手。 机构观点 美国大豆出口检验量为79.90万吨，较去年同期的211.98万吨显著下降，本年度累计出口检验量同比减少 44.5%，整体出口进度明显偏慢。许多市场人士怀疑中国是否会继续从美国购买大豆。目前美国生物柴 油政策仍有不确定性，有媒体周五对EPA的副局长进行了独家采访，EPA副局长抨击了路透社关于进口 生物燃料激励措施的报道，EPA认为路透社的报道具有误导性。但对于R ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——上行驱动不足，油脂维持偏弱震荡 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场交易的重点来自于全球油脂的供需平衡问题，核心驱动主要在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心 矛盾主要为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力能否被增长的需求所消化。11月高频数据显示马棕继续增产，产地供应压力未减，减 产季的到来似乎也已经遥遥无期。而印尼端B50计划不确定性仍存，需进一步政策指引，产地整体来看报价上 行动力不足。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期，且当前美国 已经解散清洁能源部门，或更偏向于化石燃料的使用，政策提振作用存疑。中美贸易和谈进度目前较乐观提 振美豆，支撑豆油相对偏强，但美豆恢复购买后国内豆油供应压力或增加，成本支撑逻辑走完后或转化为供 应压力现实，且美豆出口好转，美国政府对生物燃料政策的力度有减弱可能，等待最终结果；但中加和谈目 前并不像中美和谈乐观，菜系后市供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The prices of major agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short, medium, and intraday terms [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: U.S. soybean futures prices are oscillating at 1100 cents. The incremental Chinese purchases are lower than expected, offsetting the bullish impact of South American drought. Domestic oil mills' operating rate remains at a high of 65%, with high soybean meal inventory forcing traders to sell goods, pressuring spot prices. Feed mills only maintain an 8 - day rigid inventory, and pig losses suppress restocking willingness. The spot basis remains negative. The key psychological and technical support level for short - term soybean meal futures prices is 3000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Attention Points**: The realization of precipitation in South America in December and the adjustment of oil mills' operating rhythm [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues to accumulate as production recovers. The spot price of palm oil continues to decline slightly. The biodiesel policy of U.S. soybean oil is uncertain, and positive signals are released in China - Canada relations. The pressure on the palm oil industry chain continues to increase, and short - term palm oil futures prices continue to fluctuate weakly. The trend of palm oil is closely linked to U.S. soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by U.S. soybean cost support, U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mills' inventory [6].

Report Title - The report is titled "Oil Weekly Report 20251121: The Resonance of Malaysian Palm Oil High-Frequency Data and US Biodiesel Pressures the Oil Futures Market" [1][2] Investment Rating - The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8300] price level. The contract is p2601. In the medium term, the pattern is slightly bullish. Although the domestic inventory has reached a moderately high level in history, and the near - month purchases have recovered, the consumption remains weak, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. In the long - term, the tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia continues, and biodiesel policies support the price center [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9400] price level. The contract is Ol601. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the expected tightening of supply in the far - month has been alleviated. In the long - term, the increased import capital cost due to the margin on Canadian rapeseed still provides support [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The contract is y2601. Abroad, the supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging during the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption due to biodiesel policies lead to a tightening supply. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, and the far - month supply is expected to ease. It mainly follows other oils in a bullish oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, BMD crude palm oil first rose and then fell, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The market was first boosted by the US reaffirming the 2026 RVO target but then weakened due to high - frequency data showing an increase in Malaysian production and a significant decline in exports in November [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Data** - **Malaysia**: In October, the production was 2.0439 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 11.02% and a year - on - year increase of 13.72%), consumption was 282,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 15.41% and a year - on - year increase of 10%), exports were 1.0929 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 18.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%), and the end - of - month inventory was 1.4645 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.07%). From November 1 - 20, the export volume decreased, and the production increased [16]. - **Indonesia**: As of August, the inventory remained at a low level in history. In August, the production was 5.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.66%), exports were 3.47 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% and a year - on - year increase of 5.56%), and the end - of - month inventory was 2.54 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%). The reference price of crude palm oil in November was raised [34]. - **Indian Market**: After the festival, India's purchases slowed down, but due to rigid demand, the imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level year - on - year. Currently, India's oil and palm oil inventories have returned to a moderately low level in history [37][52]. 2. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. CBOT soybean oil first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly increase [50][51]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Harvest Progress**: As of November 17, the soybean harvest progress was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [53]. - **Biodiesel Policy**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. There are considerations to postpone the reduction of incentives for imported biodiesel, which may affect the demand for US soybean oil [53]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global soybean production shows certain fluctuations, and the consumption and inventory also change accordingly. For example, in 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 421.748 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.26% [56]. 3. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Planting Progress** - **Brazil**: As of November 15, the 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 69%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The production is expected to continue to increase [78]. - **Argentina**: As of November 12, the soybean planting progress was 12.9%, lower than the same period last year [72]. - **Weather Outlook**: In Brazil, the soybean - producing areas have good weather for sowing, but there may be a risk of deterioration in December. In Argentina, the soybean - producing areas may gradually enter a dry weather pattern [73][78]. 4. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Production Forecast**: In the 2025/26 year, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. Canada, the EU, and Australia are all expected to increase production. For example, Canada's rapeseed production is estimated to be 20.03 million tons [110]. - **Policy Impact**: China has imposed a 75.8% margin on imported rapeseed from Canada. Although there are signs of relaxation in Sino - Canadian relations, there has been no substantial progress, which provides support for rapeseed oil prices [111]. - **Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global rapeseed production, consumption, and inventory change. In 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 92.273 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.30% [115]. 5. Domestic Oil Supply and Demand - **Market Performance**: This week, the domestic three major oil indexes were mainly weak. Palm oil has a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. Soybean oil's far - month supply tightening expectation has improved, and rapeseed oil is supported by the lack of substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade [129]. - **Pressing and Production**: In the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 304,700 tons, and the expected production in the 47th week is 446,300 tons. The rapeseed - pressing volume of coastal oil mills is 0 tons, and the palm oil trading volume has increased [132][133]. - **Import and Inventory**: As of November 14, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 11.31%. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories decreased slightly, while palm oil inventory increased significantly [158][159]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil show certain fluctuations [148][152][153]. - **Basis and Spread**: The domestic soybean oil spot basis is generally weak, the palm oil basis is basically flat, and the rapeseed oil basis has a small decline. There are also corresponding changes in the spreads between different contracts and different varieties [189][237][244][245].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Cost support has weakened as U.S. soybean export demand is lower than expected and the outlook for U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, dragging down U.S. soybean futures prices. The spot market is also weak. Although the forward basis trading volume has slightly increased, traders are continuously losing money, and downstream aquaculture mostly replenishes based on rigid demand. The market faces double pressure of loose supply and weak demand. The 3000 yuan/ton level has become a key psychological and technical support level [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The core pressure comes from the uncertainty of U.S. biodiesel policy. Trump's government considering delaying the import biofuel incentive cut plan has hit the demand expectation of U.S. soybean oil for biodiesel, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean oil futures prices. In addition, as soybean futures prices fall from high levels, the cost support for domestic soybean oil from imported soybeans has weakened. The domestic soybean oil market supply is very loose, and the inventory has reached a high level of nearly 1.2 million tons in the same period, with weak terminal edible oil consumption [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [8] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is facing a game between high supply and policy expectations. In the short term, the high inventory pressure in the producing areas limits the upside space, and its trend more depends on external markets such as soybean oil. Biodiesel policy is a key variable. The reality of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure, and the month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1st - 20th has widened, increasing market bearish sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Hold (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean, Egg [1] Core Views - The soybean futures price has dropped rapidly from its high and is in an adjustment phase. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and the short - term trend of imported soybeans is expected to be slightly stronger [2]. - The Trump administration's potential policy delay on biofuel incentives may change the demand source of biodiesel raw materials, narrowing the price difference between global and US vegetable oils. The strong US diesel market has a marginal spill - over effect on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out [3]. - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, and the strategy is bearish [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract price of soybean futures has dropped rapidly from the high with a reduction in positions. The mid - week auction of soybeans by Sinograin was fully sold at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and short - term attention should be paid to the spot and policy aspects of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Trump administration may delay the policy of reducing biofuel incentives. The development trend of biodiesel is still supported, and the price difference between global and US vegetable oils is expected to narrow. The strong US diesel market has an impact on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out. Attention should be paid to the final US biodiesel policy [3]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure. The import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in October decreased year - on - year. Due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, the strategy is bearish [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. Live Hogs - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9].

Market Overview - As of November 19, the CNF price for 24-degree palm oil imports for December and January is reported at $1060/ton and $1080/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $10 to $22/ton [1] - Malaysia's MENTIGA CORPORATION reported October crude palm oil production at 999.11 million tons, fresh fruit bunch production at 5157.34 million tons, and palm kernel production at 239.82 million tons [1] - On November 19, the national port transaction volume for 24-degree palm oil was 800 tons, a decrease of 33.33% compared to the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) continued to rise, supported by the strength in soybean oil. However, concerns over demand and a stronger ringgit have led to palm oil prices retreating from intraday highs. Domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, putting pressure on spot prices, and a wide fluctuation in palm oil prices is expected in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlighted that the U.S. diesel market is experiencing lower-than-average production but strong exports and domestic demand, leading to a tight supply-demand balance. This situation is expected to have a marginal spillover effect on vegetable oils. The recent strength in international soybean oil prices has also influenced palm oil, which is following the upward trend. However, short-term supply-demand indicators for palm oil in Malaysia appear weak. Domestic soybean crushing margins remain poor, with soybean oil outperforming soybean meal. The market is closely watching potential changes in U.S. biodiesel policies, which could lead to an improvement in palm oil margins and a higher probability of a bottoming phase for palm oil prices [3]

国内棕榈油从近期的横盘区间跳升，表现转强，豆棕价差从高位回调，显示出棕油开始强于豆油。美豆油表现偏强，一方面市 场对美国生物柴油政策预期偏乐观，一方面美国柴油市场表现偏强、美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲。国内需求也 好于平均水平，预计美国柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。随着豆油的 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强,棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供需面偏弱。大豆国内近 端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。由于豆油表现偏强，我们预计棕榈油会被带动，基于这个国素，预计棕榈油 单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ★☆☆ | | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱油 | ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the US energy policy and further news about Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. The strategy is mainly to stay on the sidelines. For the far - month P05 contract, there may be an opportunity to go long as palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year. It is also advisable to be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [2]. - The current core contradictions in the oil market include the digestion of palm oil inventory pressure in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In the October MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by over 11%, inventory by over 4%, and exports by over 18%. With the entry into the production - reduction season, the cost - performance of palm oil is expected to increase. The B50 plan in Indonesia has uncertainties, and there are also limitations on production due to the transfer of plantation ownership [1]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oils**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The resumption of US soybean purchases may increase domestic supply pressure. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be tight due to the less - optimistic China - Canada talks [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient in the short term, but there will be a slow destocking at the end of the year, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are P2601 [8400 - 9000], Y2601 [8000 - 8500], and OI [9300 - 10000]. Pay attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. - **Technical analysis**: Go long on the P05 contract on dips, and be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [15]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Consider a reverse spread for P1 - 5. Be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, and for rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10300 [18]. - **Hedging strategies**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills can short soybean oil futures to prevent losses from high - inventory imports [20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In October, the US soybean crushing volume far exceeded market expectations, reaching a record high [24]. - **Negative information**: The November USDA report was slightly negative for the US soybean market. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment is bearish, the downward space is limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season in producing areas [31]. - **Fund movement**: Positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil had a slight increase in short positions from foreign investors and retail investors, and weak long - position confidence. Soybean oil's positions changed little, and foreign short - positions in rapeseed oil decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil's long - positions decreased due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [32]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The soybean and rapeseed oil markets showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. The palm oil market had a complex structure, with 05 being the strongest and 09 relatively weak [33][36]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to be weak due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [33]. - **Spread structure**: The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils strengthened, and the rapeseed - soybean spread rebounded slightly. Rapeseed oil remained strong in the sector, while palm oil was the weakest [53]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was mainly in shock. The negative factors in palm - oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted. The US soybean market was affected by the slightly negative November USDA report. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and the supply gap of rapeseed oil made it stronger than palm oil [56]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The price of palm oil in producing areas was weakly volatile, and the production cost of bio - fuel decreased slightly. The cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a multi - year low [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As China is a net importer of palm oil, the import profit changed slightly with the low - level consolidation of the origin price, and there were few new purchases under the negative basis [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Deduction - **Palm oil**: With the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure is not expected to increase, and the driving force from the producing areas may be reflected in the 05 contract [72]. - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [72]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, but it will gradually destock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship does not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [72]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Deduction - The inventory pressure of the three major oils is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. Although the fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season, the boost to the market after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is expected to remain weak [74].