| 业期现目报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 王法特 | 2025年7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田洞 | 7月4日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8190 | 8290 | -100 | -1.21% | 现价 | Y2509 | 7944 | 7994 | -0.63% | -20 | 期价 | | 296 | -16.89% | Y2509 | 246 | 星差 | -50 | 09+200 | 09 + 210 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | -10 | - | | 仓单 | 22977 | 22697 | 280 | 1.23% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 7月4日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8560 | 广东24度 | 8510 | -20 | ...

农产品早报 2025-07-07 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 美豆周五休市，天气较好及全球丰产施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支撑需求，整体维持 区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2830 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高。上周豆粕成交一般， 提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。饲料企业库 存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天。 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意 贸易战若缓和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略】 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangj ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].

估值偏高，区间震荡 油脂月报 2025/07/04 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 交易咨询号： Z0022498 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：本月三大油脂宽幅震荡为主，前期原油大涨及EPA政策利多带动油脂走强，后期因原油回落、棕榈油增产及估值偏高等因素有所 回落。菜油因菜籽进口成本较高仍高位震荡。路透调查显示，预计马来西亚2025年6月棕榈油库存为199万吨，比5月下降0.24%；产量预计为 170万吨，比5月下降4.04%；出口量预计为145万吨，比5月增长4.16%。马来西亚、印尼棕榈油上半年同比大幅增产趋势压制油脂价格。 国际油脂：EPA的RVO草案预计2026年美国生物燃料豆油需求量在750万吨，菜油需求量在320万吨，这相比于2024年补贴存在时期，同比增加 分别约150、80万吨，考虑到或有最大达10%的SRE，最终进口油脂需求增量如菜油、UCO等生柴原料都有一定幅度的折扣。RVO草案将在7月8 ...

Report Title - Bio - diesel Policy Favorable, US Soybean Oil Leads the Rise of Oils and Fats - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Internationally, the probability of abnormal weather for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy may be the key factor affecting the market. US soybeans may run within the range of 950 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the Dalian soybean meal market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing, with short - term low - level fluctuations. [136] - The oils and fats market: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies for biodiesel. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136] Section Summaries 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low level this week. The near - month contracts were pressured by the higher - than - expected quarterly inventory report at the end of June, while the far - month contracts were supported by the slightly lower - than - expected planting area report. The US Senate's new tax bill and Trump's speech also affected the market. The main contract of US soybeans fluctuated between 950 - 1100 cents. Dalian soybean meal oscillated higher at a low level, with a weaker increase than US soybeans. [6] 1.2 US Soybean Export - The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 11% from the previous week but decreased by 30% year - on - year. As of June 26, 2025, the export inspection volume was 224,787 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,851,787 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and 91.1% of the revised export target has been achieved. [12] 1.3 North American Weather - In the US, there were active weather conditions in many areas, with heavy rainfall in some parts and drought in others. There were also wildfires in the west. In Canada, the rainfall in the prairies was generally low, and some areas in Saskatchewan experienced drought. [24][30] 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - The US soybean inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. Argentina restored the original tax rates for soybeans and other crops. The EU's rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, while sunflower seed production is expected to decrease. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to reach a record high of 168.75 million tons. [35][36][37] 1.5 Trade Pattern Changes - Italy will increase imports of US soybeans. Trump is rumored to reveal the progress of the trade agreement with China, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. [39] 1.6 Domestic Soybean Situation - The domestic spot and futures crushing margins of soybeans have declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 5.988 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons next weekend. The cost of imported soybeans from the US Gulf for September shipment is 4,620 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3,917 yuan/ton. [45][48] 1.7 Soybean Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the average soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills was 67.05%, a decrease of 4.44% from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal was 751,000 tons, an increase of 217,000 tons from the previous week. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 26th week was 1.7513 million tons, a decrease from the previous week. [53][57] 1.8 Rapeseed Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the weekly opening rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 13.82%, a 0.73% increase from the previous week. The inventory of imported crushed rapeseed meal was 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. [63] 2. Oils and Fats Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils and fats oscillated higher this week, with US soybean oil rising significantly due to the favorable policy for biodiesel. Malaysian palm oil also rose, and domestic oils and fats followed the trend. Dalian palm oil led the rise, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil oscillated strongly, and Dalian soybean oil rose and then fell. [70] 2.2 International Oils and Fats Information - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in June, with different performance for different varieties. Indonesia raised the reference price of palm oil in July. Indian importers cancelled some palm oil import orders. The US Senate's new tax bill is favorable for US soybeans and corn growers. The production of South Malaysian palm oil decreased in June. [74][75][76][77][78] 2.3 Domestic Oils and Fats Situation - As of the end of the 26th week in 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4565 million tons, a weekly increase of 188,100 tons. The inventory of soybean oil was 1.0609 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons; the inventory of edible palm oil was 511,500 tons, an increase of 113,400 tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil was 884,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. [93] 2.4 Arbitrage Relationships - This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds decreased slightly, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil decreased significantly, while the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly. [113][117][119] 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bearish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all entangled. For soybean oil, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all bullish. For rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. [135] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the probability of weather speculation for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy is the key factor. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing. - Oils and fats: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136]

农产品早报 2025-07-04 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周四美豆先涨后落，美豆周五休市，假日前调整仓位，天气较好及全球丰产施压美豆，不过美豆估值略 低，整体维持区间震荡趋势。周四国内豆粕现货涨 10 元左右，华东报 2830 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高， 豆粕成交一般，主要是远月成交放量，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存为 809 万 吨，油厂豆粕库存 69.16 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定，中美大豆关税 仍未解除支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意贸易战若缓和或宏观影响 带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略 ...

Group 1 - The oilseed and oil market has shown a strong upward trend recently, driven by favorable expectations regarding U.S. biodiesel policies and a general rise in commodity prices [1][2] - The U.S. Senate's proposed tax bill aims to prohibit the use of non-North American materials for biodiesel production, which could significantly benefit U.S. soybean and corn farmers if passed [1][2] - Analysts indicate that the current international oilseed supply remains ample, with Brazil and Argentina experiencing high soybean yields, while U.S. soybean planting area is expected to decrease [2][3] Group 2 - The palm oil market is under pressure due to high production levels and cautious purchasing from India and China, which limits price increases [3] - Domestic soybean oil inventories are rising, and the market is experiencing seasonal supply pressures, leading to a weak basis for oilseed prices [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while the oil market is currently influenced by policy changes, the overall trend remains unclear, with potential for short-term fluctuations [4][5] Group 3 - The outlook for soybean meal prices is more optimistic compared to canola meal, with expectations of price increases driven by U.S. soybean market dynamics and weather factors [4] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are seen as a "gray rhino," with diminishing impacts on prices, although positive negotiations could support U.S. soybean prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025/2026 annual level is a year of increasing supply and demand for oils and fats, making it difficult to have significant supply - demand changes. However, there are usually monthly - level market trends. It may fluctuate downward from June to August due to possible inventory reduction of palm oil in the producing areas but sufficient inventory accumulation expectations in September and October. After October, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biodiesel policy, combined with seasonal palm oil production cuts, may lead to an increase [1][23]. Summary by Related Chapters I. Southeast Asian Palm Oil Production Recovery Suppresses Oil Prices - Since March 2025, the trend of oils and fats has diverged. Palm oil has generally declined due to increased production, while rapeseed oil has fluctuated at a high level due to tight Canadian rapeseed supply. Recently, the overall valuation has been lifted due to the EPA's RVO draft. From March to April, the combined production of CPO + CPKO in Indonesia and CPO in Malaysia was 619.5 and 659.6 million tons respectively, an increase of 90 million tons year - on - year. Although export performance was average during the same period, domestic consumption in the producing areas remained at a high level, so the increase in inventory was limited, and the inventory rose to a relatively low level in recent years by the end of April [3]. - Looking ahead to the next three months in palm oil producing areas, the seasonal production from June to August usually runs steadily, reaches a high in September and October, and gradually declines from November. Since the beginning of this year, domestic consumption in the producing areas has been good, mainly due to the increase in biodiesel usage and a slight increase in edible consumption, which may also maintain a good level from June to August and may increase seasonally after September. It is estimated that the average monthly production from June to September in the producing areas will be 600 - 630 million tons, the average monthly domestic consumption will be about 240 million tons, and the average monthly export volume will be 360 - 390 million tons [1][3]. II. Palm Oil in Malaysia + Indonesia May See a Slight Inventory Reduction from June to September and Enter the Inventory Accumulation Stage after September - Palm oil exports usually increase seasonally from June to October. From January to May 2025, the combined imports of palm oil and palm kernel oil by China and India decreased by about 134 million tons year - on - year, resulting in low domestic oil inventories in India, which may require more palm oil imports to replenish inventory later. Imports from other countries except China and India increased by about 50 million tons. The apparent demand for vegetable oils was slightly weak. India's imported vegetable oil consumption has recently remained at about 120 million tons per month, showing a slight decline. In China, from January to May, among vegetable oil consumption, soybean oil consumption decreased by about 30 million tons year - on - year, rapeseed oil consumption remained flat, and the apparent consumption of palm oil decreased significantly by about 50 million tons. It is estimated that China and India's palm oil imports from June to September will be slightly higher than last year, with an average monthly import of about 110 million tons [11][13]. - In terms of other oils, the exports of soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil are expected to be the same as last year. Due to the increase in domestic consumption in Brazil affected by B15, but with an additional 300 million tons of soybean crushing this year, the export volume is expected to remain at last year's level. Argentina's crushing and exportable volume are usually relatively stable. Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are in a seasonal decline stage. Therefore, before the oilseed harvest season, global palm oil may partially fill the reduction in other oil exports [13]. - Assuming that the global palm oil import demand from other countries except China and India from June to September is about 300 million tons per month on average over the years, the average monthly global palm oil import demand from June to September is expected to be 410 million tons, and the palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to remain stable or see a slight reduction. However, the inventory reduction scenario is limited to a decline in palm oil production in the producing areas. If downstream buying interest remains weak under new situations such as macro - fluctuations and trade wars, the inventory reduction in the producing areas will also be tested. After September, production in the producing areas will further increase, and with the harvest of other oilseeds, the palm oil in the producing areas will enter the inventory accumulation process [13][14]. III. It is Difficult to Have Significant Supply - Demand Changes in Oils and Fats at the Annual Level - Currently, the new - crop Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed and sunflower seeds in Russia and Ukraine, and Australian rapeseed are in the growing stage. The weather for Canadian rapeseed has improved recently after being dry in the early stage. The weather in the sunflower seed - producing areas in Russia and Ukraine is normal. The EU's rapeseed and sunflower seeds are expected to have a restorative increase in production according to the EU report on June 25. Global soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the soybean oil crushing production is expected to increase by 200 million tons year - on - year. Overall, other oils except palm oil are expected to have a combined production increase of 400 - 450 million tons in the 2025/2026 global annual level, with sufficient global oil supply [22]. - On the demand side, the US biodiesel blending draft is expected to bring an incremental industrial demand of about 150 - 200 million tons of oils and fats globally. Brazil's B15 policy may provide an incremental demand of about 50 million tons. Global edible demand is weak under the negative impact of the trade war on the macro - economy, and the annual increase is expected to be less than 250 million tons under normal circumstances. For palm oil, due to good rainfall in 2024, there may be a certain increase in production at the annual level, but the increase is limited due to the relatively old tree age [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. Each product faces a unique set of market conditions, with both bullish and bearish factors influencing their prices. The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, trade policies, and weather conditions [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: US soybeans were nearly flat on Tuesday, with a minor adjustment in the USDA area report and a muted market reaction. Favorable weather and the trade war are pressuring US soybeans, but low valuations provide some support. In China, the spot price of soybean meal fell by about 10 yuan, with a high but decreasing oil mill operating rate, weakening meal sales, and strong提货. The domestic port soybean inventory was 8.09 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, showing a continuous inventory build - up trend [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill crushing volume is at a record high for the same period, leading to reduced downstream buying interest, faster inventory build - up, and a depressed domestic soybean meal valuation. Although the import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating due to low valuations, EPA policy support, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, the overall supply of soybeans or protein remains excessive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed market situation, it is recommended to test long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in June, while production showed a mixed trend. Brazil's expected soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in June have changed compared to previous forecasts. The domestic oil market was oscillating on Tuesday, with weak global oil import data weighing on prices. However, low Indian inventories, potential minor inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in June, and biodiesel policy support provided some upward momentum [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy draft has supported the oil price center, but the current high valuation limits the upside potential due to factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, macroeconomic conditions, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating view of the oil market [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of different sugar producers showed mixed trends. In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a significant decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production compared to the same period last year. The delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is expected to be the lowest since 2014 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the low - price and low - volume delivery of the July raw sugar contract, the chaotic domestic futures spread structure, and the high profit margin of out - of - quota sugar imports after the decline in foreign prices, the sugar price may continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The US 2025 cotton planting area forecast by USDA is higher than market expectations, and the US cotton good - to - excellent rate has improved compared to the previous week. In China, the recent expectation of Sino - US negotiations is supporting the cotton price, but the rapidly strengthening basis is unfavorable for downstream consumption, slowing down the inventory reduction speed, and there is a possibility of import quota issuance in the future [14][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price may continue to oscillate. Pay close attention to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [15]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The national egg price was stable with some declines. The supply changed little, while the demand was conservative, and industry players were cautious. The egg price is expected to be stable in most areas and slightly weaker in some regions [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the weak and stable spot price, the time is unfavorable for long positions in the near - month contracts. However, the later the seasonal price increase occurs, the greater the potential divergence in the peak - season contracts. Considering the large production capacity and insufficient de - stocking, the medium - term strategy is to wait for price rebounds to short, and in the short term, reduce short positions at low prices or adopt a wait - and - see approach for near - month contracts [17]. Pigs - **Spot Market**: The domestic pig price continued to rise on the previous day. The supply of pigs for slaughter may still be limited, but most downstream buyers are resistant to high - price pigs, and the supply of pigs for slaughter may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of the pig price [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to take short - term long positions at appropriate low prices before delivery. For contracts in the second half of the year such as 11 and 01, since their valuations are above the cost line and they are likely to experience a transition from inventory build - up to de - stocking, wait for high - price opportunities to short [20].

研究报告 2025 年油脂半年报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | | | 电话：13609351809 | | | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 7 | 月 | 1 星期二 | 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 美联储进入降息周期后，市场对 2025 年美联储 降息次数的预期差异较大，特朗普对全球的贸易以 及国际局势的不确定性将增加将扰动油脂市场。国 际、国内宏观政策以对油脂的影响比重明显增强， 在整体供需收紧的格局下，油脂重心有望维持高位。 棕榈油，2025 下半年度全球供应格局仍偏紧， 棕油价格支撑偏强，远有树龄老化带来的供给增长 瓶颈，近有低库存支撑，需求端亦有印尼 生物柴油 计划的不确定性，供需不确定性较高。未来重点关 注产地库存节奏，只要产地累库不明显，棕油价格 ...