Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The capital market has no basis for tightening as the real - estate market and credit demand face downward pressure, and external exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. However, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose, so the probability of a significant decline in capital interest rates is low. DR007 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5 - 1.6%. The CD maturity peak is not over, and CD interest rates may remain in a sideways oscillation state, with limited downward momentum in the bond market. Further long - position opportunities may require greater liquidity support from the central bank, a significant decline in CD interest rates, and an increase in interest - rate cut expectations [5][19][23] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Can the funds become even looser? - From the fundamental perspective, the real - estate market and credit demand have downward pressure. As of June 14, the year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in June was 8.0%, and the year - on - year growth of first - tier cities' transaction area also decreased. As of June 8, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month - on - month. In May, the year - on - year growth of RMB loan balances was 7.1%, and the credit growth rate was still in a downward range. The growth of social financing was mainly supported by government bond issuance and direct financing, with weak financing demand from the real economy [7][12] - External exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. After the Sino - US Geneva talks on May 12, bilateral tariff levels were significantly reduced, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend, so the central bank does not need to tighten funds to stabilize the exchange rate [15] - The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose. The central bank conducted two outright reverse repurchases in June, with a total investment of 1.4 trillion yuan, but the net investment was only 200 billion yuan. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter pressure, the upward range of capital interest rates is expected to be limited, and DR007 may fluctuate in the 1.5 - 1.6% range [17][18] 2. What is the impact on the bond market? - Since late May, although capital interest rates have significantly declined, CD interest rates have been in a sideways oscillation state, restricting the downward space of bond interest rates. In the next two weeks, CD repayment pressure is high, but the net lending scale of large banks has been increasing, so CD interest rates are expected to remain in an oscillating state, and the downward momentum of the bond market is limited [19]

5 月物价、贸易数据出炉；资金面持续宽松，银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一 【内容摘要】6 月 9 日，资金面持续宽松；银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一；转债市场主要 指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国 债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行】当地时间 6 月 9 日下午，中美经贸磋商 机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。国务院副总理何立峰与美国有关方面举行会谈。路透社、 天空新闻频道等英国媒体指出，中美新一轮会谈引起各界高度关注，双方开展面对面对话将有 助于加强两国经贸关系，深化相互理解信任。 【5 月 CPI 继续低位运行，PPI 同比降幅有所扩大】国家统计局 6 月 9 日发布的数据显示， 2025 年 5 月，CPI 同比下降 0.1%，上月为下降 0.1%，1-5 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；5 月 PPI 同比下降 3.3%，上月为下降 2.7%，1-5 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.6%。 【5 月对美出口降幅扩大，整体出口保持较强韧性】海关总署 6 月 9 日发布数据显示，以美元 计价， ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity injection of one trillion yuan has led to significant changes in the market's funding environment, with a notable decline in short-term interest rates across various instruments, indicating a continued easing of monetary conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Interest Rates - As of June 9, 2025, the weighted average interest rates for various repo instruments have decreased, with DR001 at 1.377%, DR007 at 1.5126%, and DR014 at 1.5393%, marking new lows since December 2024 and January 2023 respectively [1][2]. - The R007 rate also fell to 1.4938%, the lowest since October 2024, while the overnight repo rate dropped to 1.3705%, the lowest since December 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a one trillion yuan buyout reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity, which has been a key factor in the recent decline of short-term interest rates [5][6]. - The PBOC's actions, including the announcement of large-scale reverse repos at the beginning of the month, are aimed at countering the pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit, which have reached a peak of over 4.2 trillion yuan in June [6][7]. Group 3: Bond Market Impact - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with long-term bond yields continuing to decline. The 10-year government bond yield was reported at 1.6547% on June 6, down 1.65 basis points from the previous week [10][11]. - Analysts expect the bond market to remain strong due to supportive monetary conditions and the PBOC's proactive liquidity management, which is likely to keep interest rates low [10][11].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 173.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 9, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan into the market as there were no reverse repos maturing on that day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw a slight decline across all maturities, with the overnight Shibor down by 3.30 basis points to 1.3780%, and the 7-day Shibor down by 0.30 basis points to 1.4970% [1][2] - The interbank pledged repo market showed a slight downward trend in rates, with the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreasing by 3.5 basis points and 2.9 basis points, respectively, while transaction volumes varied [6] Market Conditions - The funding environment on June 9 was characterized by a loose liquidity situation, with overnight rates for pledged repo transactions falling to around 1.45% by the end of the day [10] - A total of 145 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on June 9, with an actual issuance volume of 224.51 billion yuan, indicating active trading sentiment in the primary market [11] - The issuance of the second batch of 39.5 billion yuan special bonds aimed at stabilizing growth and investment was successfully completed, supporting central enterprises in key investment areas [13]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to consolidate on June 9, with narrow fluctuations in interbank bond yields and mixed performance in government bond futures [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide liquidity support through net injections in the open market, leading to a more relaxed funding environment [5] - Overnight pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions fell over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.35%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.09%, with 5-year and 2-year contracts remaining unchanged [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" decreased by 0.50 basis points to 1.8700%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" saw an increase of 0.25 basis points to 1.6550% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 11.11 basis points to 4.506% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 1.467% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all saw slight declines [3] Primary Market - The Agricultural Development Bank of China issued financial bonds with varying yields, with the 3-year bond yielding 1.3286% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23 [4] Funding Conditions - On June 9, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, injecting 173.8 billion yuan into the market [5] - The funding environment remains increasingly relaxed, with a significant net injection following a previous large-scale reverse repo operation [5] Economic Indicators - In May, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% [8] - China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [8] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that attention should be paid to tariffs and fundamental developments, with expectations of a slight increase in risk appetite due to U.S.-China tariff negotiations [9] - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates that interest rates may reach new lows, driven by changes in fundamentals and improved market supply-demand dynamics [9]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a volatile yet strong trend, with 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury futures showing weekly increases of 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively, indicating a balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.3%, a drop of 2.1 percentage points, highlighting a divergence between large and small enterprises [1] - The recent easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. may continue to support manufacturing sentiment in the second quarter, although uncertainties regarding external demand persist in the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - In response to a slowing global economic recovery and increasing geopolitical uncertainties, multiple central banks are signaling monetary easing, with the People's Bank of China announcing a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation [2] - Recent U.S. economic data, including a significant drop in ADP employment numbers and a contraction in the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The market's anticipation of Fed rate cuts has surged, with the probability of a rate cut in September reaching 77.1% according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] Group 3 - The funding environment remains loose, with slight declines in overnight and 7-day repo rates, although there is pressure from over 4 trillion yuan in maturing certificates of deposit in June, complicating banks' asset-liability management [3] - The combination of government debt supply pressure, significant credit issuance, and the peak of maturing certificates of deposit in June may lead to increased volatility in the funding environment [3] - Short-term attention should be on the movement of certificates of deposit and the demand for government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, as well as regulatory measures to stabilize banks' liabilities [3] Group 4 - The bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with the potential for interest rates to decline requiring further triggering factors, including changes in the economic fundamentals and central bank policies [4] - The likelihood of further monetary easing from the central bank in the short term is relatively low, but any unexpected resumption of government bond purchases could catalyze a decline in long-term interest rates [4] - Technically, mid to short-term interest rate bonds are considered a relatively safe choice in the current market environment [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share market decline and loose funding led to a slight increase in treasury bond futures across the board. The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield rising 0.2bp. The central bank's net injection in the open market resulted in loose funding. Considering the marginal weakening but resilient April economic data, and the tariff disturbances entering a buffer period, the short-term fundamentals have no significant downward risk, and policies may enter an observation period with a low possibility of further intensification. The bond market has entered a narrow oscillation pattern, but with the peak of government bond supply in May passing and the central bank's continuous support, the short end may perform better [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A-share market decline and loose funding led to a slight increase in treasury bond futures across the board. The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with fluctuations within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6910%, up 0.2bp [8][9] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds in the interbank market mostly declined slightly, with fluctuations within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6910%, up 0.2bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank had a net injection in the open market, resulting in loose funding. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 247 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates showed mixed trends, with the weighted overnight rate of interbank deposits falling about 5bp to 1.51%, the 7-day rate falling 7bp to around 1.66%, and medium- to long-term funds remaining stable [10] - **Conclusion**: The April economic data showed marginal weakening but resilience. With tariff disturbances entering a buffer period, there is no significant short-term downward risk in the fundamentals. Policies may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further intensification is low. The bond market has entered a narrow oscillation pattern, but with the peak of government bond supply in May passing and the central bank's continuous support, the short end may perform better [11] 3.2 Industry News - **Policy and Management**: The central bank and the SAFE plan to improve the management of funds for overseas direct listings of domestic enterprises. Many provinces have proposed stricter management of special bond funds. The CFFEX will enrich the participant structure of the treasury bond futures market [12][13] - **Market Trends**: Most banks' large-denomination certificate of deposit rates have declined, and wealth management companies have reduced fees. The first 50-year special treasury bond was issued, and the market is focusing on supply pressure and funding [13] - **International News**: Trump agreed that the US does not need to bring the textile manufacturing industry back home and hopes to manufacture large items such as chips, computers, and AI in the US [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of treasury bond futures contracts on May 26, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest, are provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and interbank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes is presented [28][30] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is provided [33]

Group 1 - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) experienced a slight increase of 0.03% as of May 26, with a net inflow of over 900 million yuan in the past week [1] - The latest circulating scale of the Tianhong Credit Bond ETF reached a historical high of 5.267 billion yuan [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 382 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on May 26, with a net injection of 247 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market remains stable, supported by the central bank's operations, despite seasonal pressures and the need for banks to manage liabilities [2] - Credit bonds are expected to perform strongly, with credit spreads narrowing across all maturities, indicating a potential trend of "deposit migration" [2] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit opportunities, as the market lacks a clear mainline direction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Extreme conservative House members threaten to block Trump's tax - cut bill, and the White House warns that killing the bill would be an "ultimate betrayal". The EU says the US negotiation proposal is unrealistic and has a new plan. The US states that the Treasury Secretary and the Japanese Finance Minister did not discuss exchange - rate levels at the G7 meeting. Shanghai releases a special action plan to boost consumption. The domestic market rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The suppression of bonds by the equity market is limited. Treasury bond futures show strong buying support near the technical support level in the afternoon. The market is looking for cost - effectiveness, and the allocation funds favor long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited under the background that the logic of loose liquidity remains and the signal of fundamental recovery needs to be verified. However, the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and the trend is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.43%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.46%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.13%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.18% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.27%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided in a table [12].