Key Points - The precious metals sector has seen significant price increases for gold and silver, with London spot gold rising 2.81% to $3429.15 per ounce and Shanghai gold increasing 1.20% to ¥785.12 per gram [2][5] - London spot silver rose 2.84% to $38.80 per ounce, while Shanghai silver increased 1.98% to ¥9386 per kilogram [2][5] - The decline in Shanghai gold holdings by 7.94% to 390,000 contracts contrasts with a 1.62% increase in Shanghai silver holdings to 773,300 contracts [2][5] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference have led to increased bets on rate cuts [2][3] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump poses a challenge to the Fed's independence, with potential legal implications [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent large-scale attacks by Russia on Ukraine, are influencing market sentiment and may lead to new sanctions against Russia [4] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expected interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with central bank gold purchases expected to support prices [4][5] - The World Gold Council projects global gold demand to reach 4974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases [4][5] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July [4][5]

Summary of Key Points Overall Viewpoint - The report highlights that overseas attention is focused on industry tariffs, economic performance, interest rate guidance, and liquidity impacts, with U.S. stock funds preemptively defensive and rotating into interest rate-sensitive sectors such as finance, healthcare, and real estate, as well as U.S. Treasuries and gold benefiting from potential interest rate cuts [3][11][12] - Domestic economic marginal slowdown is noted, but key industries continue to expand, with supply-demand conflicts gradually easing and price indices recovering, making a halt in PPI decline expected [3][11] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a volatile upward trend supported by three major rebalancing factors, with a focus on technology rotation, interest rate-sensitive trades, and industries benefiting from PPI recovery [3][11][18] Industry and Stock Logic - **Electronics: Lens Technology (300433.SZ)**: The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 69.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.27%, and a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, up 19.94%, driven by vertical integration strategies and growth in assembly business [19][22] - **Networking: Shengke Communication-U (688702.SH)**: The company reported a revenue of 508 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.56%, but a net profit of -24 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 58.36% [23][24] - **Electronics: Shengyi Technology (688183.SH)**: The company achieved a revenue of 4.687 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.19%, and a net profit of 332 million yuan, turning profitable [28][29] - **Small Cap: Siquan New Materials (301489.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 656 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 51.1%, with a net profit of 52.45 million yuan, a slight decrease of 3.88% due to increased expenses from new subsidiaries [36][37] - **Automotive: Moulded Technology (000700.SZ)**: The company is expected to generate total sales of 2.04 billion yuan from a luxury car manufacturer and a North American client, with production starting in 2026 [39][40] Key Stock Picks - The report lists ten key stocks, including Lens Technology, Shengke Communication-U, Shengyi Technology, Siquan New Materials, and Moulded Technology, among others, with no specific ranking [4][10]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：德邦证券研究） 鲍威尔讲话弥合9月降息分歧，市场情绪受到提振。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话释放鸽派信号， 其表示"就业的下行风险正在增加"、"基准前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场"，意 味着9月降息的最后分歧被弥合。整体来看，鲍威尔此次的放鸽超出市场的预期，在讲话之前，市场大 多预期鲍威尔会继续维持鹰派态度，原因有二：第一，杰克逊霍尔会议前多位美联储官员放出鹰派风 声，似在引导市场预期，CME模型显示降息25bp的概率一度降至75%；第二，鲍威尔任期将于2026年5 月结束，在此之前维持谨慎态度或保持中立更有助于确保行为不出错，对其个人更有利。美元指数持续 反弹也印证了这一线索。因此在鲍威尔放鸽后，预期快速逆转带来市场情绪的显著提振，美元指数、美 债利率下挫，美股、黄金上涨，但如我们之前的报告所述，不同资产对于降息预期的反应幅度有差异， 美股大盘龙头指数和黄金在极值位置下上涨乏力，以罗素2000为代表的小盘指数弹性更佳，短债利率下 行幅度较长债更大，但整体也较为有限，意味着降息预期在之前已经被消化大半。 降息25bp的预期大概率会在短期内被消化，后续需关注英伟达财报等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market has continued to advance, with risk appetite being optimistic and exuberant. The interest rate cut trading has generally dominated the market, and most risk assets have closed higher. The VIX volatility index has dropped significantly and is operating at a historical low [7]. - Overseas, the resilience of inflation and the turmoil among Fed officials, along with Powell's remarks, have continuously disturbed the interest rate cut expectations. A September interest rate cut is almost certain, and the market has started to focus on the amplitude and speed of subsequent interest rate cuts [7]. - Globally, most major stock markets have closed higher. The US stocks have reached new all - time highs, and the A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. The BDI index has significantly declined, and the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both dropped. Non - US currencies have generally benefited, and the commodity trends have been divergent [7]. - In China, the "anti - involution" market has cooled down. The weakness of the real - end fundamental data has dampened the optimistic sentiment and the strong expectations of investors. However, the supply - side disturbances in key industries and varieties, and the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" industry policies have still caused ripples in the futures market [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Asset Category - Overseas: Most major global stock markets have closed higher, the US stocks have reached new all - time highs, and the A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. The BDI index has significantly declined, the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both dropped, non - US currencies have generally benefited, and commodity trends have been divergent. Oil prices have rebounded, supporting the energy sector and driving relatively strong performance of internationally - priced commodities. The CRB index has closed higher on a weekly basis, and gold and copper have both risen [7][11]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" market has cooled down. The domestic bond market has declined across the board, with near - term bonds being stronger than long - term bonds. The stock index has generally risen, and the commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with most closing lower. The stock market has a general upward trend, and both growth - style and value - style stock indices have performed strongly, with no obvious style differences. The market has stood above 3800, the market risk appetite has increased, and the trading sentiment has been active. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 0.79%, with 2 out of 10 commodity big - asset category indices closing higher and 8 closing lower [7][11][16]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has declined across the board, with near - term bonds being stronger than long - term bonds. The stock index has generally risen, and the commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with most closing lower. The stock market has a general upward trend, and both growth - style and value - style stock indices have performed strongly, with no obvious style differences. The market has stood above 3800, the market risk appetite has increased, and the trading sentiment has been active. The domestic commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with the Wind commodity index having a weekly change of - 0.79%. Among the 10 commodity big - asset category indices, 2 have closed higher and 8 have closed lower, showing an internal - weak and external - strong style characteristic. The agricultural and sideline products sector has dropped significantly by - 4.28%, leading the decline. The coking coal, steel, and ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors have dropped by more than - 2%, followed closely. The energy and non - ferrous sectors have closed higher against the trend, and the other sectors have all closed lower [16]. 3. Fund Flow - Last week, the funds in the domestic commodity futures market have generally flowed out slightly. The agricultural and sideline products, soft commodities, and grain sectors have seen obvious fund inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, coking coal, steel, and ore, energy, oilseeds, non - ferrous, and precious metals sectors have seen obvious fund outflows [19]. 4. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures have closed lower. Among the specific commodity futures variety indices, the top - rising commodity futures varieties are TA, staple fiber, and bottle chips, while the top - falling commodity futures varieties are coking coal, ferrosilicon, and soda ash [24]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index has slightly increased, while the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and the Nanhua commodity index have both slightly decreased. By sector, the volatilities of the commodity futures big - asset categories have shown mixed performance. The precious metals, coking coal, steel, and ore, and chemical sectors have seen slight volatility declines, while the non - ferrous and agricultural and sideline products sectors have seen the most obvious volatility increases [29]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities have closed higher, with crude oil, soybeans, and corn rising. The BDI has dropped significantly. The trends of gold and silver have diverged, with the silver price rising and the gold price slightly falling, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [32]. - Domestically, the asphalt operating rate has fluctuated, the real - estate sales have been weakly bottom - seeking, the freight rates have continued to decline, and the short - term capital interest rates have risen first and then fallen, with the center of gravity rising [52]. 7. Macro Logic - The stock index has strongly risen and closed higher significantly, with valuations rising collectively and the risk premium ERP under pressure and falling [36]. - The commodity price index has oscillated higher, inflation expectations have rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality have oscillated [45]. - The US Treasury yields have dropped significantly, with short - term bonds being weaker than long - term bonds. The term structure has a bullish steepening, the term spread has increased, the real interest rate has been under pressure, and the gold price has oscillated at a high level [61]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" has shown resilience. The impact of tariffs on the economy has become initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M US Treasury spread has fluctuated around 0 [70]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September has first decreased and then increased. There are expectations of further interest rate cuts in October or December, and the probability of a 50 - bp interest rate cut within the year is high. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bp to 4 - 4.25% in September is 82.9%, a slight decrease compared to 83.4% a week ago, but the probability has shown a trend of first falling and then rising within the week. The probability of further interest rate cuts in October or December is not high, and the probability of two 25 - bp interest rate cuts (50 bp in total) within the year is the highest, at around 47% [79]. 9. Impact of Powell's Speech - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on August 22 has released obvious interest rate cut signals, triggering extensive market attention. After the speech, the three major US stock indices have collectively risen, the trading volume has increased, the US Treasury yields have significantly declined, the US dollar index has rapidly dropped, and the international gold price has significantly increased [88][90]. - The core content of Powell's speech includes an assessment of the current economic challenges and a revision of the monetary policy framework. In terms of economic challenges, the labor market is in a "fragile balance" with rising employment downward risks, economic growth has slowed down, inflation pressure exists, and policy - making faces challenges. In terms of the monetary policy framework, it has abandoned the focus on the effective lower bound (ELB), the average inflation target system (AIT), and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasized inflation expectation anchoring, conflict - goal balancing, and other aspects [92][104]. 10. Capital Flow Preference - Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the strong performance of the A - shares, funds are favoring RMB - denominated equity assets. The A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. Although the short - term market of the commodity futures has cooled down, the internal capital of the commodities has been flowing, and the hot sectors have been switching, always exploring investment opportunities around the "anti - involution" theme [8]. 11. This Week's Focus - A series of economic data releases and events are worth noting this week, including German and US economic data, central bank meetings and speeches, and corporate product launches [125].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent dovish stance from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has led to an increase in metal prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts strengthening [5] - Precious metals are expected to perform well due to increased ETF inflows and a long-term view on de-dollarization [5] - Copper prices are supported by weak supply and the end of the consumption off-season, with a recommendation to wait for price adjustments before going long [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to inventory depletion during the peak demand season, despite limited impact from U.S. tariffs [6] - Tungsten prices are on the rise, driven by increased demand from military and infrastructure sectors, with exports showing significant growth [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to increase due to U.S. Department of Defense's strategic stockpiling plans and improved demand from the battery sector [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 5984.59, with a weekly high of 5984.59 and a low of 3700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 0.50%, Aluminum up 0.73%, Zinc up 0.32%, Lead up 0.56%, and Tin up 0.70% [21] - Precious metals also increased: Gold up 1.05%, Silver up 2.26%, Palladium up 2.06%, and Platinum up 1.39% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes: Copper increased by 2179 tons, Aluminum decreased by 8872 tons, Zinc increased by 4521 tons, Lead increased by 9112 tons, Tin decreased by 243 tons, and Nickel decreased by 1503 tons [33]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, with each cut being 25 basis points, as indicated by Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole summit [10][15][16] - The "rate cut trade" has been reestablished, with a focus on stocks like Mobileye and Klaviyo, as well as the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Real Estate ETF [10][17][22][23] - Mobileye is positioned for growth in the advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) market, with significant orders expected for its L2+/L3/L4 products by 2024 and partnerships with major automotive companies [22] - Klaviyo, a leading digital marketing platform, is projected to capture a growing market share, with a focus on cross-selling new products and expanding into adjacent markets [22] Group 2: European Market Focus - The path to peace between Russia and Ukraine remains challenging, with significant obstacles in territorial conditions and security assurances [30][34] - European defense spending is expected to increase significantly, with NATO members committing to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP, benefiting companies like Rheinmetall and Rolls-Royce [35][39] - Rheinmetall is well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending, with projected annual revenue growth of 20% through 2030 due to rising demand for military equipment [39] - Rolls-Royce is experiencing growth in its civil aviation business, supported by strong demand across all end markets, while also benefiting from increased defense spending [39] Group 3: Philippine Market Focus - The Philippine economy showed stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 2025, driven by improved employment and loose monetary policy, with further interest rate cuts anticipated [49][52] - The Philippine stock market is seen as attractive due to low valuations, with the MSCI Philippines Index trading at approximately 11 times earnings, and is expected to benefit from regional capital inflows [52] - Key sectors to watch include banking, utilities, and real estate, with specific companies like BPI, BDO Unibank, Converge, and Ayala Land highlighted for their potential [52][53]

2025 年 8 月 25 日 鲍威尔鸽派提振 铝价震荡偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转 鸽，市场开始演绎降息交易，美元走弱，同时欧美制 造业PMI皆有回暖，需求预期略有修复。基本面，电 解铝产能仍然主要为产能置换，整体开工变化不大。 消费端即将进入旺季下游补库意愿上升，同时周初 铝价一度回落，下游接货积极性抬升。周内铝锭社会 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the index rising nearly 3.5% on August 25, and the largest ETF tracking this index seeing a gain of over 4% [1] - Major stocks within the Hang Seng Technology Index, such as NIO, ASMPT, Alibaba, Baidu, NetEase, Horizon Robotics, and Lenovo, have shown substantial increases, with NIO surging over 13% [1] - Recent institutional analysis suggests that the Hang Seng Technology Index may have a chance for a rebound, especially as the Shanghai Composite Index reaches a ten-year high and the ChiNext Index breaks recent highs [1] Group 2 - The inflow of funds into the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) has been notable, with approximately 5.498 billion yuan net inflow over the past 20 trading days, bringing the total size to a record high of 37 billion yuan [1] - Cross-border ETFs have seen over 80 billion yuan in net inflows in the past month, with the technology, financial, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong being the main beneficiaries [1] - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised expectations for a rate cut in September, which is likely to enhance liquidity and bullish sentiment in the Hong Kong market [1][2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently viewed as being relatively undervalued, making it more sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential, thus benefiting from a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment [2] - The index is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, suggesting that improvements in market conditions could lead to stronger upward momentum [2] - Investors without access to the Hong Kong Stock Connect can consider the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) as a means to invest in core Chinese AI assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities indicates that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market and reiterating the view from the July meeting that "tariff inflation is transitory," paving the way for a rate cut in September [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework, returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach, with revised language emphasizing attention to "two-sided" employment market risks [1] Market Implications - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the main theme of "rate cut trading" in the U.S. stock market has been clarified, with a "catch-up" trading logic expected to dominate the upcoming market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trading" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology may experience upward trends again [1] Currency and Bond Market - There remains a gap between market expectations for two rate cuts this year and the company's forecast of three [1] - It is anticipated that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index will have slight downward space [1] Global Equity Market - Powell's dovish comments and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite [1] Gold Market - Rate cut expectations are likely to support gold prices, although caution is advised regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference shifted the policy tone to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting [1][2] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 72% to 94% following Powell's remarks, indicating a significant market reaction [1][4] - The baseline scenario anticipates the unemployment rate rising to the 4.4-4.5% range, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year [1][4] Group 2 - Powell described the employment situation as a "fragile balance" with both supply and demand weakening, indicating an upward risk to employment downturns [2] - Inflation driven by tariffs is seen as clear but potentially "one-off," necessitating close monitoring of tariff impacts in the short term [2] - The Federal Reserve aims to balance the risks of stagflation, with a cautious approach to policy adjustments as the economic outlook evolves [2] Group 3 - The long-term monetary policy framework aims for a 2% inflation target alongside broad maximum employment goals, reflecting a shift from previous strategies [3] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the dual mandate of inflation and employment [3] Group 4 - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 have increased, with expectations of 5.3 cuts by the end of that year, reflecting a more dovish outlook [4] - The key to the September rate cut's realization lies in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data, rather than solely on Powell's statements [4] - The market's optimism regarding rate cuts in 2026 may be overly optimistic, with potential risks related to rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's strength [4]