Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4469.17 per ounce, up 0.47%, with a high of $4469.49 and a low of $4426.09, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela has significantly impacted the geopolitical landscape in Latin America, leading to increased uncertainty in energy supply and prompting global investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Analysts predict that gold will remain a key asset for portfolio hedging, with an expected average price of $4538 per ounce for the year, especially during periods of monetary easing and inflation exceeding 2% [2] Group 2 - The gold market experienced a strong upward movement, opening at $4350.7, dipping to a low of $4344.8, and then rising to a high of $4455.6, closing at $4448.9, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Market participants are advised to adjust their positions with specific stop-loss levels and targets, indicating a strategic approach to trading in the current volatile environment [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月5日，COMEX黄金企稳，价格继续上冲，报收4459.7美元/盎司，涨幅3.00%。国内SHFE金夜盘继续 修复节前跌幅，价格重回1000点以上，报收1001.60元/克，涨幅0.93%。 供应管理协会（ISM）周一公布的数据显示，美国12月ISM制造业指数从48.2小幅下降至47.9。该指标 已连续10个月低于50，且萎缩幅度为自2024年以来最大，给美国制造业艰难的一年画上了句号。从分项 指数来看，12月共有15个行业出现收缩，其中服装、木制品和纺织品行业领跌；仅有两个行业实现增 长，为自2023年底以来最少。一定程度上提振降息预期，支撑金价走势。 地缘方面，元旦期间美委冲突虽然快速结束，但市场担忧美对委内瑞拉打开"潘多拉魔盒"，成为开年首 月主要聚焦因素，避险资金涌入贵金属市场，预计将推动黄金维持偏强走势。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 供应管理协会（ISM）周一公布的数据显示，美国12月ISM制造业指数从48.2小幅下降至47.9。该指标 已连续10个 ...

Group 1 - AllianceBernstein holds a constructive view on the global fixed income market for 2026, citing a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for bond investors [1] - The firm anticipates a slowdown in economic growth across both developed and emerging markets, with rising unemployment rates and persistent inflation above target levels, creating challenges for central banks [1] - Despite concerns over sticky inflation limiting policy flexibility, AllianceBernstein believes central banks will prioritize addressing slowing growth and a weak labor market, predicting multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the next year and further easing potential from the Bank of England [1] - Historical trends suggest that a combination of declining policy rates, slowing growth, and easing inflation typically creates a favorable environment for bonds, with expectations of gradually declining yields and a steepening yield curve over the next 12 months [1] - The firm recommends maintaining duration positioning as a defensive strategy, highlighting its potential to hedge against stock market volatility, and notes that with cash yields likely to decline, there is room for capital to rotate into the bond market [1] Group 2 - A focus on fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) includes long-term U.S. Treasury ETFs such as iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US) and iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH.US) [2] - Comprehensive bond ETFs mentioned are the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG.US) and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US) [2] - Inflation-protected ETFs include Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP.US) and iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP.US) [2]

汇通财经APP讯——周二亚洲早盘，黄金价格（XAU/USD）上行至4440美元附近，延续此前涨势，并 触及近一周高点。整体来看，金价走强主要受避险资金流入推动，反映出市场对短期不确定性的重新定 价。 在风险偏好下降的环境下，黄金作为传统避险资产再次受到关注，资金配置意愿明显回升。 地区局势 变化推升避险情绪 近期，围绕委内瑞拉的局势出现明显变化，引发市场对地区稳定性及潜在连锁反应 的担忧。 在不确定性放大的背景下，黄金的避险属性被重新激活。这类事件本身未必直接影响黄金供需，但通过 情绪和资产配置渠道，对价格形成支撑。 贵金属市场交易人士指出，当前避险买盘并非孤立出现，而是叠加在全球地缘风险、能源供应担忧以及 货币政策不确定性之上。 若数据偏弱，则可能强化降息预期，为金价提供进一步上行动力。 在宏观事件密集的背景下，数据结 果对短期走势的影响或被明显放大。 美联储宽松预期构成中期支撑 除避险因素外，美联储政策预期依然是支撑金价的重要基本面因素。 近期公布的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要显示，多数政策制定者认为，在通胀逐步回落的前提下，进一 步下调利率是合适的选择，尽管在具体节奏和幅度上仍存在分歧。这使得金价在回调过 ...

周二亚洲交易时段，英镑/美元货币对呈现小幅走低态势，部分回吐前一交易日的上涨成果。 此前该货币对曾强势上行至1.3545-1.3550区间，创下2025年9月以来的阶段性高点。 最新公布的经济数据显示，英国零售协会周二发布报告指出，12月整体商店价格同比上涨0.7%，其中食品通胀表现尤为值得关注， 从11月的3.0%攀升至3.3%。这一通胀数据的变化，可能会促使市场重新评估英国央行的政策宽松预期，进而对英镑形成支撑，短期 内英镑/美元的空头力量或需保持谨慎态度。 对于后续市场走势而言，即将公布的经济数据将成为关键驱动力。 目前市场参与者正等待英国和美国最终服务业PMI数据的出炉，期望从中获取新的交易指引。不过需要注意的是，当前市场焦点仍 高度集中于周五即将公布的美国非农就业报告（NFP），在此之前，短期市场大概率将维持相对平淡的运行格局，波动空间或较为 有限。 除非农就业报告外，本月初即将公布的其他多项美国核心宏观经济数据，也将为市场判断美联储降息路径提供重要参考。这些数据 的表现将直接影响市场对美元的需求变化，进而推动英镑/美元汇率的短期走势。 数据显示，标普全球美国制造业PMI维持在51.8的水平，这一数 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金银铜重回涨势，A 股迎来开门红 海外方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 由 48.2 降至 47.9，弱于预期且连续 10 个月处于 收缩区间，分项来看，主要受库存加速去化拖累，新订单与出口需求持续偏弱，就业继续下 降但降幅放缓；支付价格指数维持在 58.5，显示价格压力仍具黏性。PMI 下行鉴于客户库存 同样偏低，需求短期存在边际修复空间。在美逮捕委总统后，市场风偏并未走弱，道指创下 历史新高，美指震荡走高至 98.4，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.16%，金属价格在岁末年初调整震 荡后重回上行，金价涨超 2%，银价涨超 5%，铜价涨幅近 5%、首次站上 13,000 美元/吨， 在智利铜矿罢工、市场对中期供应缺口的预期以及 LME 认证库存偏低的共同作用下，供应 端忧虑迅速升温。 国内方面，中国 12 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 维持在 52，服务业扩张已连续三年延续， 显示内需端具备一定韧性；但新出口订单在 11 月短暂修复后再度回落至收缩区间， ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market remains bullish due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying, with short-term price movements expected to oscillate at high levels [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, testing the $4400 level multiple times, reaching a high of $4402 before retreating to a low of $4309, stabilizing above $4300 [1][5]. - On the following Monday, gold opened higher, breaking through the $4400 resistance and peaking at $4438, currently trading around $4434, aligning with the bullish fundamentals [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators suggest a need for a rebound, with support levels identified at $4353, $4324, and $4300, while resistance levels are at $4400 and $4450 [1][5]. - The daily chart indicates a strong upward movement, with the potential for further gains if gold maintains above the $4400 support level, which coincides with the 10-day moving average [6][7]. Group 3: External Influences - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have heightened market risk aversion, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3][6]. - The increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures by the CME has led some investors to take profits, contributing to short-term selling pressure, but overall demand remains supported by interest rate cut expectations and central bank purchases [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Maduro have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant rise in gold prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices increased by 1.86%, trading around 989.73 yuan per gram [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - In 2025, gold prices are expected to surge by 64% year-over-year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, safe-haven demand, and inflows into ETFs, marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates the release of key economic data, including the U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to be slightly below the neutral line [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll report is set to be released on Friday, with expectations of an addition of 55,000 jobs [1]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Philadelphia Fed President Harker indicated that further interest rate cuts may need to wait, impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's short-term policy direction [1].

基本面： 周一（1月5日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度强势上涨0.9%，触及每盎司4419.90美元。这场波动的直接导火索，是周末期间美国对委内瑞拉发动的 闪电军事行动——总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其夫妇在首都住所被捕，并已被迅速移送至纽约候审。这一事件如同投入平静湖面的巨石，瞬间激起了金融市场 对避险资产的狂热需求。然而，金价的攀升之路并非坦途，同期美元指数攀升至近两周高位的强势表现，如同悬在多头上方的利剑，令市场情绪复杂而微 妙。 地缘政治"黑天鹅"：避险情绪的核心引擎。抛开短期波动，从更长周期视角审视，黄金市场洋溢着乐观情绪。回顾2025年，金价实现了约65%的惊人涨 幅，表现远超多数大宗商品和资产类别。进入2026年，这种看涨预期有增无减。在参与调查的零售投资者中，高达42%的人预测金价将在2026年升至5000至 6000美元之间；更有29%的投资者看高至6000美元以上。相比之下，认为金价会跌回4000美元以下的仅占十分之一。这种来自"民间"的强烈看多情绪，是市 场情绪的重要风向标。华尔街的行业专家们也倾向于看多，尽管预测可能相对保守。他们认同，在央行持续购金、地缘政治格局碎片化、以及全球主要央行 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货均震荡小幅回调。消息面，统计局公布了 12 月制造业 PMI 数据为 50.1%， 比上月上升 0.9 个百分点，升至扩张区间。宏观 ...