Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

关税风云下的铜铝 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 证券研究报告|行业跟踪 2025/08/21 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 分析师：于柏寒 登记编码：S0950523120002 邮箱：yubaihan@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 Contents 目录 01 铜铝价格走势复盘 03 供应端偏紧的铝市场 04 铜铝价格展望总结 02 关税风云下"割裂"的铜市 场 今年铜铝在交易什么？ 复盘：关税预期扰动今年铜价 图表1：2025年初至今的铜价走势复盘：关税、冶炼厂减产成为主线 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2025-01-08 2025-01-10 2025-01-12 2025-01-14 2025-01-16 2025-01-18 2025-01-20 2025-01-22 2025- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded, reaching around $3,352 per ounce, with a notable increase of nearly $40 on Wednesday, closing at $3,348.20, reflecting a rise of approximately 1% [1] - The decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.13% to 98.20, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand [1] - Political pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, including calls for the resignation of Governor Cook, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which in turn benefits gold as a hedge against political risk [2] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a split among decision-makers, with only two officials supporting a rate cut, while the majority preferred to maintain current rates, reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand, easing monetary policy, and a 30% chance of a recession in the next 12 months [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading within a consolidation range of $3,300 to $3,400, with short-term movements reflecting a triangular pattern, indicating potential volatility in the near term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to contract, with A-shares surging and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 leading the gains. The market is waiting for the further development of the relationships among the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, as well as the guidance from Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [2][5]. - The prices of precious metals rebounded due to increased market uncertainty. Copper prices are waiting for a driving force. Aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a limited range. Alumina prices face increasing pressure. Zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering. Lead prices are weakly oscillating. Tin prices are in a tangled state. Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating widely. Nickel prices are oscillating within a range. Crude oil prices are oscillating. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][19][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals. Most people believe that inflation risks are higher than employment risks, with differences focusing on the impact of tariffs and interest rate levels. Some are worried about the instability of long - term inflation expectations and the fragility of the US Treasury market, and also concerned about the potential risks of stablecoins. Trump pressured to remove "dissidents" from the Fed, and the independence of the Fed is under threat. The market risk appetite continues to decline, with the US dollar index oscillating weakly, the 10Y US Treasury yield slightly declining, and US stocks continuing to fall. Gold, copper, and oil all rebounded. Attention is paid to the US August PMI tonight [2]. - Domestic: Leaders conducted intensive research and made speeches. A - shares rebounded after Wednesday's oscillation, with the trading volume shrinking to 2.45 trillion yuan. The market risk appetite recovered, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by more than 3%, and sectors such as GPU and liquor led the gains. The bond market fell again as the stock market strengthened. The short - term risk appetite may be approaching the peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices both closed higher. Trump's call for Fed Governor Cook to resign increased market uncertainty, the US dollar index turned down, and precious metal prices rebounded. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The meeting between the leaders of the US, Ukraine, and Russia cooled down. Investor risk aversion increased. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated narrowly, and LME copper sought support at the 9700 level. The macro situation shows that the Fed is facing a dilemma between rising inflation and a deteriorating employment market. The market is highly concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday. The CME observation tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 85%. In terms of industry, First Quantum has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain an oscillating state waiting for a driving force [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,577/ton, up 0.37%. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The short - term attitude of the Fed needs to be further observed. Fundamentally, aluminum prices have slightly declined in the past two days. At the transition between the off - season and peak season, downstream restocking at low prices has slightly improved, and the spot discount has converged. Technically, the downward adjustment range of aluminum prices is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and the warehouse receipt inventory continues to accumulate, so the price pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the changes in production capacity [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and slightly shifted upwards at night, and LME zinc closed higher. In July, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, while the import of refined zinc met expectations. Currently, raw materials are abundant. As zinc prices fall to near the previous low, downstream price fixing at low points increases. Short - term zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering, waiting for the guidance from Powell's speech on Friday [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly both during the day and at night, and LME lead closed higher. Globally, the high visible inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. Domestically, the improvement in consumption falls short of expectations, and the production side is relatively stable. Lead prices lack the driving force to rise but also have no continuous downward momentum due to cost support. The fundamentals maintain a state of weak supply and demand [13][14]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and moved horizontally at night, and LME tin oscillated. In July, Myanmar's tin mines resumed production, but China's imports from Myanmar decreased instead. Indonesia's exports of refined tin decreased month - on - month, and overseas supplies remained tight. In the short term, the low LME inventory is difficult to reverse. Near Powell's speech, the expectation of a rate cut in September is volatile, and tin prices are in a tangled state [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated weakly. Fundamentally, the supply side is showing a marginal loosening trend, while the demand side has limited consumption growth. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. The domestic anti - involution sentiment has cooled down. Short - term futures prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating state [16][17]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate lithium was weakly running, and the spot price was stable. An upstream salt factory in Jiangxi announced the resumption of production, but the actual output in August is expected to be limited. The core factor driving the wide - range price fluctuations may be the market's lack of confidence in the supply contraction promoted by policies. Short - term lithium prices may fluctuate widely due to emotional disturbances [19]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Under the expectation of abundant nickel ore supply, the price is still strong, but nickel iron plants are under cost pressure. The refined nickel market is warming up. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, and attention should be paid to the rebound at low levels [20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil oscillated and strengthened. The market is waiting for the progress of the tripartite peace talks, and the market disturbances are relatively limited. The significant inventory reduction by the EIA has temporarily boosted market sentiment. However, the bearish fundamentals and the expectation of cooling geopolitical risks remain unchanged, and oil prices maintain an oscillating and wait - and - see state [21]. 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 01 contract fell, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. The second - day inspection results showed that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska was good, while that in Indiana was slightly lower than the same period last year. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and the yield per unit may be lowered. US soybean growers hope to reach a trade agreement with China. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate [22][23][24]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 01 contract fell. The latest data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, which supports the price and limits the decline. The US's exemption obligation for small refineries may be introduced earlier than expected, and US soybean oil oscillated and fell. Short - term palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the short - term, copper pricing returns to macro trading. With weak economic expectations, the upside of copper prices is under pressure, but the downside space is also difficult to open. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The key lies in the inflation and employment data in the US in August, which will determine the Fed's decision in the September interest - rate meeting [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week. It is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are still under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and focus on the 21,000 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand weakness pattern of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the price mainly fluctuating narrowly, and the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, the driving force for zinc prices is weak, and they are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - In the short - term, the driving force for tin prices is limited, and they will fluctuate widely. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel price will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and ferronickel dynamics [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with strong support likely between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,770 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value [1]. - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value [3]. - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton [4]. - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous value [6]. - SMM 1 tin price is 267,500 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous value [9]. - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [10]. - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) stainless steel price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value [11]. - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data Copper - July electrolytic copper production is 1174.3 thousand tons, up 3.47% month - on - month [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports are 296.9 thousand tons, down 1.20% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - July alumina production is 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month [3]. - July electrolytic aluminum production is 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 625 thousand tons, up 1.63% month - on - month [4]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 266 thousand tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - July refined zinc production is 602.8 thousand tons, up 3.03% month - on - month [6]. - July refined zinc imports are 17.9 thousand tons, down 50.35% from the previous month [6]. Tin - July tin ore imports are 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - July SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in a certain period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month [10]. - Refined nickel imports in a certain period are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% from the previous period [10]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in a certain period is 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [11]. - Stainless steel imports in a certain period are 109.5 thousand tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate - July lithium carbonate production is 93,958 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month [12]. - July lithium carbonate demand is 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [12].

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申银万国期货分析指出，美联储7月利率会议继续按兵不动，但美联储内部观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过 人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落 地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下价位较 高黄金上行迟疑，金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现震荡走势。 消息面上，今日凌晨，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有 两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数 还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 8月20日，受美股回落，美元走弱和美债收益率下滑支撑，市场避险需求上升，金价大幅反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.00%报3392.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.3%，黄 金股ETF(159562)涨1.39%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the有色金属 market is mixed. Some metals may experience price fluctuations due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and market expectations. For example, copper prices may be in a consolidation phase, aluminum prices may turn to a volatile state, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks. Meanwhile, long - term factors like the US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies may support nickel prices [1][3][9]. - The prices of various metals are affected by different factors. For instance, copper prices are influenced by raw material supply, inventory levels, and market sentiment; aluminum prices are related to inventory changes and downstream consumption; lead prices are affected by raw material shortages and high inventory at the consumer end; and tin prices are restricted by slow production resumption and weak demand during the off - season [1][3][7][11]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed up 0.38% at $9,721 per ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,730 yuan per ton. The price may consolidate and await further guidance from the Fed Chair's speech on Friday [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,000 tons. Domestic refined copper net imports in July were 218,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from June [1]. - **Outlook**: The market has expectations of interest rate cuts, and raw material supply is tight. Overall, copper prices may consolidate, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,000 - 79,200 yuan per ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,600 - $9,800 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed up 0.37% at $2,577 per ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,565 yuan per ton. The price may turn to a volatile state [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 442,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 480,000 tons [3]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives. With low domestic inventory and strong aluminum product exports, aluminum prices are supported, but downstream consumption is weak. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,480 - 20,680 yuan per ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - $2,600 per ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20,095 yuan per ton, and the price increase may face resistance [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 200 tons to 31,400 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Cost support is strong, but the large price difference between futures and spot may limit price increases [5]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.58% at 16,735 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1,971.5 per ton. The price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 65,800 tons, and LME lead inventory was 283,000 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: The lead ore inventory is tight, and the processing fee is declining. The demand from battery manufacturers is weak, and the finished product inventory is high. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to decline [7]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.26% at 22,265 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S remained unchanged at $2,776.5 per ton. The price still has significant downward risks [8][9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 135,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore inventory is decreasing, but the TC of zinc concentrate is rising. Refined zinc imports are decreasing, and domestic social inventory is increasing rapidly. Downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in an oversupply state [9]. Tin - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 267,840 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 184 tons to 7,329 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons to 1,715 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10,392 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight in the short term due to slow production resumption in Myanmar and transportation issues. The demand is weak during the off - season. As production resumes in Myanmar, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan per ton for domestic tin and $31,000 - $34,000 per ton for LME tin [11]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The price may face correction pressure in the short term but has support in the long term [12][13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: Downstream stainless steel demand improvement is limited, but long - term factors such as the US easing expectations and RKAB approval support the price. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - $16,500 per ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index dropped 4.05% to 82,832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed down 7.49% at 80,980 yuan. The price may have further fluctuations [15]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: The sentiment of bullish funds supported by supply disruptions has cooled down. The short - term support level of lithium prices has shifted upward, and attention should be paid to imports and industry news. The reference operating range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan per ton [15]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, the alumina index increased by 0.67% to 3,137 yuan per ton. The price may have limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 tons to 75,000 tons [17]. - **Outlook**: The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 3,100 - 3,500 yuan per ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,820 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The price is expected to fluctuate [19][20]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 2.48%. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% [20]. - **Outlook**: The decline was affected by low - price selling by arbitrage institutions. The downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the steel mills have the intention to support the price. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [20].