1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market opened lower and moved higher today. In the short term, precious metals are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, but the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains intact. It is recommended to make long - term investments at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1140.000 yuan/gram, down 0.8; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 21,547 yuan/kilogram, up 14.00. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 2,975.00 to 110,867.00 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 218.00 to 3,326.00 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract increased by 39,970.00 to 312,400.00, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract increased by 262,854.00 to 619,645.00. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold decreased by 99 to 104,934 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 2,582 to 253,370 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1140.38, up 1.05; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,455.00, down 736.00. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.38, up 1.85; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 1,092.00, down 750.00 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.57 tons to 1073.32 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 47.90 tons to 15,761.62 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC increased by 968.00 to 160,145.00 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1,078.00 to 23,338.00 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1302.80 tons, down 0.19, and the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1345.32 tons, up 79.57, and the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.95, down 0.08; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.80, down 0.02. The VIX volatility index was 29.49, up 5.74; the CBOE gold volatility index was 34.26, down 1.05. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.31, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio was 62.27, up 1.67 [2] 3.5 Industry News - After the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei in a joint air strike by the US and Israel, Khamenei's son Mojtaba will be appointed as his successor. Iranian President Pezeshkian called on the people to unite and defend the country and stated that Iran will not attack neighboring countries unless attacked first. China's gold reserves at the end of February increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.22 million ounces. The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, far below the expected increase of 55,000 [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On March 9 at 23:00, the US inflation expectation of the New York Fed in February; on March 10 at 18:00, the US NFIB small business confidence index in February; on March 10 at 22:00, the US existing home sales data in February; on March 11 at 20:30, the US CPI monthly and annual rates in February; on March 13 at 20:30, the US core PCE price index in January; on March 13 at 22:00, the US durable goods orders in January [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation expectations and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the market expects one rate cut this year, with the rate - cut expectation turning more hawkish. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data to be released on Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in gold and silver prices. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5181 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week, with an upper resistance level at $5350 and a lower support level at $5100. The silver price had a weekly decline of 10.3%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, with a lower support level at $80 and an upper resistance level at $93 [6][9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, affecting precious metal prices. The Fed's stance on interest rates, the slowdown in the US employment situation, and the market's expectation of a rate cut this year are factors influencing the precious metal market. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to pay attention to the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads, Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected 59,000 and the previous value of 130,000; the February unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%; the February ADP employment change was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump claimed the right to decide Iran's next leader, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran escalated. The US and Israeli warplanes bombed multiple locations in Iran. Trump said Iran was actively contacting the US to reach an agreement, and the US would take further action to ease the oil market pressure. The US February non - farm payroll report showed a significant decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the economic outlook [26]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,441.72 kg to 1,028,962.21 kg, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 27 kg to 105,033 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 347,942.67 kg to 10,859,659.34 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 50,644 kg to 255,952 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 159,891 contracts, a decrease of 2,297 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,674 contracts, an increase of 1,951 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 11, at 20:30, the US February CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released. On Friday, March 13, at 20:30, the US January PCE price index annual rate will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and selling on rallies for glass [1][7][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, suggesting more observation for aluminum, moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel, range trading for tin, and expecting gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][13][16][18][19][20][21][22] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be slightly bullish; selling on rallies for soda ash; rubber is recommended to be bought on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading [1][24][26][27][29][30][31][32][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, as well as apples, are expected to be slightly bullish; jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1][35][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, a bearish rolling strategy for the 05 contract, cautiously bullish for the 07 and 09 contracts; for eggs, waiting for rallies to short the near - term contracts; being cautious about chasing highs for corn at high levels; shorting soybean meal on rallies; oils are expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1][40][41][42][43] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical events such as the conflict between the US and Iran and the situation in the Middle East have a significant impact on the futures market, affecting prices through factors like inflation expectations, energy prices, and supply disruptions [5][14][20][21][24][26][28][43][44][46][47] - The supply and demand fundamentals of each commodity play a crucial role in price trends, including factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and downstream demand [8][9][11][14][16][18][23][24][30][31][33][35][40][41][42][43][44][45][46] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Pressured in the short term due to geopolitical events, but bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. External inflation expectations have a complex impact on the bond market [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival. Short - term trading is recommended as the downstream demand recovery is slow [7][8] - **Rebar**: Currently in the inventory accumulation period. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with range trading recommended [9] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are poor, but the futures price has attracted bottom - fishing funds. It is recommended to sell on rallies [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range. Short - term range trading or observation is recommended, closely monitoring geopolitical factors, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand situation is complex. It is recommended to strengthen observation as the price is affected by geopolitics and inventory pressure [16] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, it is expected to be relatively strong. Buying on dips is recommended [18] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is stable. Range trading is recommended, paying attention to supply and demand changes [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by geopolitical events and inflation expectations, they are expected to trade in a range. Observation and cautious trading are recommended [20][21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, paying attention to supply - side disturbances [23] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply and demand are currently weak, but it may be slightly bullish in the short term due to factors such as export tax rebates. Range trading within the rising channel is recommended [24][25] - **Caustic Soda**: It has rebounded strongly at a low valuation due to geopolitical factors. Short - term bullishness is expected, but chasing highs should be cautious [26] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term due to cost support and inventory transfer. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved supply - demand. Key factors to watch include downstream demand and crude oil prices [29] - **Rubber**: It is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure, expected to be slightly bullish. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended [30] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually releasing. Range trading is recommended [31] - **Methanol**: It may face supply shortages due to the situation in Iran, expected to be slightly bullish. Range trading is recommended [32][33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Selling on rallies is recommended [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed. The price is expected to be slightly bullish after the festival [35][36] - **Apples**: The transaction is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37] - **Jujubes**: Expected to trade in a range [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply is loose in the short term, and the price is expected to bottom out. A bearish rolling strategy for the 05 contract and cautious bullishness for the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended [40] - **Eggs**: The supply is still abundant. Waiting for rallies to short the near - term contracts is recommended [41] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but chasing highs should be cautious. Range trading is recommended [42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to follow the trend of US soybeans. Shorting on rallies is recommended [42] - **Oils**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils recommended [43][47]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 周报 2026 年 3 月 9 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 地缘风险影响边际减弱，国债期货震荡为主 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格号：F3035632 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 国债期货：地缘风险影响边际减弱，国债期货震荡为主 上周国债期货均在冲高之后保持震荡整理。消息面，美伊冲突 爆发并持续升级，避险情绪升温，国债投资需求上升，国债期货价 格应声上行。不过随着中东地缘危机的影响逐渐被市场所消化，国 债期货的单边驱动较弱。一方面，由于宏观内需有效需求不足的问 题仍存，未来货币信用环境偏宽松，未来降息预期仍存；另一方面， 两会召开，货币政策面以结构性宽松为主，短期内全面降息的可能 性较低。总的来说，短期内国债期货以震荡整理为主。 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first ten days of March, the bond market was mainly priced by two logics: the rising risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and whether there were new statements or incremental policies in the government work report of the Two Sessions. With the long - end interest rates in a sideways shock state and short - end performance being more dominant, the interest - rate bond curve steepened as a whole. Meanwhile, the general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds continued their strong performance [1]. - Starting from mid - March, three logics are worthy of attention: the price - rising logic, the marginal changes at the institutional level, and the central bank's possible "slow withdrawal" of medium - and long - term redundant funds. Without incremental positive factors, long - end interest rates may be in a "unable to decline" state, and the key variable to break the lower bound of interest rates may be the implementation of interest - rate cuts, with April being a critical window [2][3]. - For bond - market strategies, the box - thinking may still work. When the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds enters the range of 1.83 - 1.85%, it may be in a state where long - end interest rates "cannot rise", and high - elasticity varieties can be added to increase the duration; when the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds drops to the range of 1.75 - 1.77%, a catalyst is needed for further decline, and one can consider taking profits on long - term bonds and waiting, using the leverage + coupon strategy as a transition. In mid - March, one should play the game of rising inflation while taking into account the possibility of interest - rate cuts, with the portfolio duration placed at a neutral level and a more extreme dumbbell strategy adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Multi - factor Intertwining, Cautious Pricing in the Bond Market - From March 2 - 6, affected by domestic important meetings and overseas geopolitical conflicts, the bond market priced cautiously. The long - end interest rates of 10 - year Treasury bonds, 30 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year CDB bonds had slight fluctuations, while the short - end interest rates of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds also changed [8]. - In the first week of March, the central bank routinely withdrew the cross - month funds, and the weekly average of R001 and R007 were 1.36% and 1.51% respectively. In a loose environment, the short - end performed better, and the interest - rate bond curve steepened. The yields of general credit bonds showed a parallel downward trend, and the issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined counter - seasonally [10][13]. 3.2. Three Logics Worthy of Attention from Mid - March - **Price - rising logic**: Since the beginning of March, the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a sharp rise in crude - oil prices. If the average price of Brent crude oil in March reaches $90, $100, and $120 per barrel respectively, the impact on the year - on - year growth rate of China's PPI in March will be + 0.5pct, + 0.7pct, and 1.2pct respectively, and the delayed impact on April data may reach + 0.6pct, + 0.8pct, and 1.4pct. The market may pre - price the potential accelerated recovery of inflation [19]. - **Institutional - level marginal changes**: From January to March 2026, the medium - and long - term bond allocation behavior of large banks in the secondary market went through three stages: over - buying in January, slow - buying in February, and no - buying in March, indicating that the early - year asset - grabbing is coming to an end. As the primary - market supply accelerates, large banks are gradually returning to the role of sellers of long - term bonds in the secondary market. Near the end - of - quarter revenue settlement, banks may turn to taking profits and have a higher demand to reduce medium - and long - term bonds [21]. - **The central bank's possible "slow withdrawal" of medium - and long - term redundant funds**: Recently, the central bank has started to implement a "slow withdrawal" operation for medium - and long - term funds. For example, the bond - buying scale in February decreased from 100 billion yuan to 50 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal of 3 - month repurchase in March was 200 billion yuan. It is crucial to observe the stability of the money market after the Two Sessions [24]. 3.3. The Seasonal Recovery of Wealth - Management Scale in the First Week of the Month - **Weekly scale**: The wealth - management scale decreased at the end of February due to the impact of balance - sheet return pressure. In the first week of March, it recovered as expected, with a week - on - week increase of 33.5 billion yuan to 33.37 trillion yuan. As the end of the quarter approaches, the balance - sheet return pressure will gradually emerge [35]. - **Wealth - management risks**: The retracement of equity - containing products has increased, and the negative - return ratio of wealth - management products has risen. The overall negative - return ratio of wealth - management products has increased by 7.73pct to 9.65% this week. The net - breaking rate of all products has increased by 0.02pct to 0.31%, and the performance non - compliance rate has increased by 0.3pct to 25.1% [41][49]. 3.4. The Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets Has Both Increased - From March 2 - 6, the money market loosened spontaneously under the influence of fiscal expenditure. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the proportion of overnight trading also increased. The inter - bank leverage ratio, exchange - market leverage ratio, and the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions all increased [55][59]. 3.5. Both Interest - type and Credit - type Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds Have Extended Their Durations - From March 2 - 6, the durations of interest - type and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds have both increased. The weekly average duration of interest - type medium - and long - term bond funds has increased from 3.26 years to 3.43 years, and that of credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds has increased from 1.96 years to 2.05 years. The durations of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds have slightly decreased [66][75]. 3.6. The Net Issuance Scale of Government Bonds Has Decreased - From March 9 - 13, the planned issuance of government bonds is 49.75 billion yuan, slightly higher than the previous week. However, the net payment of government bonds on a payment - date basis will turn negative, estimated to be about - 162.1 billion yuan. The net payment of Treasury bonds has decreased significantly, and the net payment of local bonds has also decreased [77][80].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for certain companies within the sector based on market conditions and price trends. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on market dynamics, particularly affecting metal prices and investor sentiment. It notes a significant drop in the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, with the non-ferrous metals index underperforming the broader market [2][3]. - The report indicates that precious metals have seen a substantial increase year-to-date, with gold prices expected to rise due to ongoing central bank purchases and a shift in monetary policy [17]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed demand, with copper and aluminum showing different trends in production and pricing, influenced by supply chain dynamics and geopolitical factors [25]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.22%. The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 5.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.40 percentage points [3][5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 18.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 17.71 percentage points [6]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals have shown varied price movements. For instance, copper prices decreased by 3.61%, while aluminum prices increased by 9.75% [12]. - Lithium prices have seen significant declines, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 10.40% and industrial-grade lithium carbonate down by 10.59% [14]. Sector Performance - Precious metals have shown strong performance, with gold prices expected to rise due to central bank purchases and a favorable monetary environment. The report suggests that the gold price center will continue to rise, with a focus on silver as well [17]. - In the industrial metals sector, copper demand is expected to grow due to increased investments in power grids and data centers, despite short-term pressures from geopolitical tensions [25]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold for potential investment opportunities based on their market positioning and performance metrics [15].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Iran situation has led to increased oil prices, which in turn raises inflation expectations and suppresses precious metal prices. Gold prices on COMEX fell by 2.17% to $5,181.30 per ounce, while silver dropped by 10.27% to $84.70 per ounce [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue affecting oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising from $67.02 per barrel to $90.90 per barrel, a weekly increase of 35.6% [5][10] - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by the declining status of the US dollar, driven by both government policy preferences and global distrust in the dollar [6][28] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been under pressure due to rising inflation expectations linked to oil price increases. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 900,540.93 ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 7,419,587.30 ounces [1] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 9.02% to 61.18, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Base Metals - Copper prices have been affected by macroeconomic factors, with a decline of 3.21% to $12,869.00 per ton on the LME. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions [8][10] - Aluminum prices increased by 9.22% to $3,431.00 per ton, driven by supply constraints and rising production costs due to higher energy prices [9][14] Small Metals - Molybdenum prices remain stable at 282,500 CNY per ton, supported by strong demand from the military sector and supply constraints [22][24] - Vanadium prices have seen an increase due to recovering demand from the steel industry and energy storage applications, with prices rising to 82,300 CNY per ton [25][26] Market Dynamics - The overall market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, particularly in copper and aluminum, due to geopolitical tensions and production disruptions in the Middle East [30][31] - The demand for precious metals is expected to remain strong in the long term, driven by ongoing inflation concerns and the potential for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on metal prices, which have shown a mixed performance. Precious metals are expected to experience price fluctuations, while industrial metals are projected to see a gradual price increase due to stable supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.22%. The non-ferrous metals index dropped by 5.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.40 percentage points [3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 18.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 17.71 percentage points [3]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals prices have varied, with LME copper down by 3.61%, aluminum up by 9.75%, and lithium prices down by 10.40% for battery-grade carbonate [2][14]. - The report notes significant price changes in various metals, including a 13.27% drop in tin and a 10.27% decrease in silver prices [14]. Precious Metals - The report discusses the U.S. labor market, noting a decrease in non-farm payrolls and an increase in unemployment rates, which may influence precious metal prices. The expectation is for gold prices to trend upwards in the long term due to low central bank reserves in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][22]. - The gold-silver ratio is currently at 62.3, indicating potential for silver demand recovery [23]. Industrial Metals - Copper supply is expected to remain tight, with domestic social inventory increasing to 577,000 tons. The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum for investment opportunities [31]. - Aluminum production is projected to continue its upward trend, with downstream processing rates increasing to 59.50%. The report recommends companies with integrated operations such as Tianshan Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [47][48]. Steel Industry - The steel production has seen a week-on-week increase, with a focus on monitoring supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand. Companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel are highlighted for their stable dividend attributes [21]. Small Metals - The report notes tight supply conditions for cobalt and lithium, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium recommended for investment [18][19]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, valuation levels may rise, recommending stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, with companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium as potential investment targets [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In February, zinc prices fell sharply and then stabilized in a sideways movement. During the period from February 2nd to March 4th, the Shanghai Zinc weighted index dropped 4.89% to 24,510 yuan/ton, and the total position of Shanghai Zinc decreased significantly by 28,400 lots to 187,000 lots. The LME Zinc 3M contract dropped 2.57% to $3,283.5/ton, and its position decreased by 13,200 to 222,500 lots. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, with the domestic TC of zinc concentrate rising slightly and the smelting profit warming up slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is still worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. The sharp rise in oil prices has triggered inflation concerns, and the downward adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has put pressure on the trend of non-ferrous metals. Zinc prices are at risk of breaking downward. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly show wide - range fluctuations following the sector sentiment during the conflict [11]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Zinc price performance: From February 2nd to March 4th, the Shanghai Zinc weighted index fell 4.89% to 24,510 yuan/ton, and the total position decreased by 28,400 lots to 187,000 lots. The LME Zinc 3M contract fell 2.57% to $3,283.5/ton, and its position decreased by 13,200 to 222,500 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,470 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at -95 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at -105 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis at -115 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was 20 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory and structure: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 74,700 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 213,600 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from March 2nd. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,400 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 6,800 tons. The cross - market structure showed that the ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.082, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,560.87 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $24/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 332,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 578,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 6.84%, 8.73%, and 19.76% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific textual analysis is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc ore production: In February 2026, the zinc ore production was 224,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -6.9% and a month - on - month change of -23.8%. From January to February, the total zinc ore production was 518,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.0% [25]. - Zinc ore import: In December 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 462,600 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 1.15% and a month - on - month change of -10.44%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 5.3188 billion dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 30.4% [25]. - Zinc ore supply and inventory: In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 496,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.82% and a month - on - month change of -8.8%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 6.0632 billion metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.5%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 315,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 618,000 physical tons [27]. - Zinc ingot production and import: In February 2026, the zinc ingot production was 504,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.9% and a month - on - month change of -10.0%. From January to February, the total zinc ingot production was 1.0652 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.2%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was -16,000 tons, a year - on - year change of -148.9% and a month - on - month change of -31.5%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 242,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -48.9% [33]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Operating rates and inventories of initial processing industries: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 6.84%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 383,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloys was 8.73%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 13,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 19.76%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons [39]. - Apparent demand: In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 553,000 tons, a year - on - year change of -8.7% and a month - on - month change of -8.5%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6.96 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic zinc ingot balance: In December 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 16,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 116,000 tons [52]. - Overseas zinc ingot balance: In November 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 32,000 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 92,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic structure: As of March 5th, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 213,600 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from March 2nd. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 75,800 tons, the Shanghai basis was -105 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -75 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,000 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$16.64/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $61.56/ton [62]. - Cross - market structure: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.079, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,681.29 yuan/ton [65]. - Position: The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc decreased slightly, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [68].