Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market maintains a volatile pattern, with short - term multi - and short - factors in balance, but the medium - to long - term supply surplus pressure remains unchanged, and oil prices are in a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the substantial progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break out of the volatile range, and it is recommended to play lightly within the range. The long - term trading logic depends on the evolution of the supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases and US sanctions on Russia loosen, and OPEC+ production policies are relaxed, supply pressure will increase, while the global economic weakness may limit demand growth [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The crude oil market shows a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and US sanctions on Russian energy companies support oil prices at the bottom, but the expectation of increased Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions relief and long - term supply surplus concerns suppress oil prices. Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia, weakening the support for oil prices [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The short - term market is volatile and relatively stable. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For single - side trading, operate within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and support around $62/ton for Brent crude oil. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions in Venezuela with the US, the UK's delay in sanctioning Lukoil, and two oil tankers exploding and catching fire in the Black Sea may support oil prices [7][8]. - **Negative Information**: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation lowered the official selling prices of most of its December - loaded crude oil grades [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: The progress of the talks will affect market expectations of Russian oil supply. A breakthrough may increase supply surplus concerns, while a deadlock may raise geopolitical risk premiums [11]. - **OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting**: OPEC+ may keep the Q1 2026 oil production unchanged, and the market is worried about supply surplus risks [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices remain stable, continuing the recent volatile pattern and declining for the fourth consecutive month [14]. - **Domestic Market**: The SC2601 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 455.9 yuan/ton last week, up 0.44% week - on - week. The trading volume was 55,800 lots, and the open interest was 73,000 lots [16][17]. - **International Market**: The settlement price of the ICE Brent crude oil futures main contract was $62.38/barrel, up 0.69% week - on - week; the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures main contract settled at $58.48/barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week. The trading volume of the Brent contract was 1.5387 million lots, and the WTI contract had a trading volume of 1.4125 million lots with an open interest of 379,500 lots, an increase of 42,000 lots [18][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $1.23/barrel, the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.46/barrel, and the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was - 5.6 yuan/barrel [28]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the SC - Brent spread was $0.58/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $4.65/barrel [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - This week, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and refinery profits were divided. The East - West crack spreads weakened [44]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - EIA slightly raises the forecasts for global and US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. In October, global crude oil and related liquid production decreased by 310,000 barrels per day compared to September, while US crude oil production increased by 10,000 barrels per day [77]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on US refinery crude oil weekly feed and operating rates, as well as Chinese refinery operating rates, reflecting the demand situation in the refining industry [68][70]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventories [74]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on US and Russian crude oil export volumes and related shipping data [76]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - In October, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production decreased compared to September. EIA slightly raises the forecasts for OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 [77].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险分析： 上游资本开支增速不及预期、原油和天然气价格大幅波动。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘冲突缓和预期走强，本周油价低位震荡 OPEC+有望在周日的会议上维持现有的石油产量水平不变，并将推动制定一项新机制，以评估成员国最 大产能；而OPEC+自愿减产8国将维持其暂停增产的决定。当前原油市场仍面临供需过剩，本次 OPEC+放缓增产决策有望改善过剩风险。需求端，IEA于2025年11月月报预计2026年原油需求增长77 万桶/日，供给端，IEA预计2026年全球原油供给增长250万桶/日，其中非OPEC+增长120万桶/日， OPEC+增长130万桶/日。当前美联储重启降息周期，全球贸易冲突风险仍具不确定性，建议关注26年需 求预期变化对油价的影响。 "三桶油" ...

是华尔街的又一次自导自演，还是背后藏着什么我们看不懂的惊天大棋？ 那个被无数人捧上神坛，号称开启了新时代的人工智能"皇帝"，竟然会在一夜之间被拉下马，股价跌得像瀑布一样，这到底是咋回事？ 你敢信吗？ 最近这阵子，但凡手里有点闲钱买了股票的，估计心都提到嗓子眼了。 尤其是那些重仓了科技股的朋友，看着账户里的数字，简直比坐过山车还刺激。 风暴的中心，就是那个大名鼎鼎的英伟达。 前一天大家还在吹捧它是"宇宙总龙头"，是人类未来的希望之光，结果一觉醒来，它就成了华尔街人人喊打的"落水狗"。 社交媒体上各种小道消息满天飞，说它那几百亿的应收账款可能要打水漂，仓库里堆满了卖不出去的芯片。 这就好比一个天天在你面前炫耀家里有金矿的土豪，突然被人扒出来，他家的金矿其实是P的图。 这下子，市场直接炸了锅。 恐慌就像病毒一样，瞬间从华尔街传遍了全球。 基金经理们疯了一样抛售，生怕跑慢一步就被埋在里面。 就在所有人都蒙圈的时候，一个传奇人物的名字又被大家提了起来——迈克尔·伯里。 对，就是那个在2008年金融海啸中，全世界都觉得他疯了，他却靠做空次贷一战封神的"大空头"。 这家伙的嗅觉比警犬还灵，他一出手，就意味着有大事要发生。 ...

数据显示，西方银行在今年的香港股权交易中占据了绝对优势。摩根士丹利亚太区全球资本市场主管 Saurabh Dinakar表示："我们看到中国公司在香港的股权发行出现了相当强劲的转变。" 彭博的数据涵盖了IPO和已上市公司的后续股票发售。今年的大型交易包括全球最大电池制造商宁德时 代（CATL）46亿美元的股票增发，以及矿业公司紫金黄金（Zijin Gold）的IPO。这些交易的成功执 行，巩固了摩根士丹利和高盛在承销排行榜上的领先位置。 尽管中资券商在本土市场的影响力日益增强，但在今年香港股权资本市场的强劲复苏浪潮中，以摩根士 丹利和高盛为首的华尔街投行依然是最大的赢家，巩固了它们在亚洲金融中心交易舞台上的主导地位。 随着大量中国公司赴港融资，以及海外投资者对中国股票的兴趣重燃，香港资本市场正迎来显著复苏。 根据路透伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据，今年迄今，在香港上市的股权资本市场（ECM）活动 总额已达到731亿美元，较2024年同期飙升232%，首次公开募股（IPO）的融资额有望创下四年来新 高。 在这场资本盛宴中，美国投行攫取了最大份额。据彭博汇编的数据，截至今年11月底，摩根士丹利在香 港的股票 ...

Group 1 - The capital market is entering the final phase of the annual "grand performance" as 2025 comes to a close [1] - The competition among actively managed equity funds has intensified, with 25 funds doubling their returns by the end of November [2] - The top-performing fund, managed by Ren Jie, achieved a return of 191.71%, with significant holdings in companies like Xinyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang [2][4] Group 2 - The ETF market is experiencing a significant capital migration, with strong performances in the biotechnology sector, where the S&P Biotechnology ETF rose by 14.03% in November [6][7] - Commodity-related ETFs also performed well, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF increasing by 4.30% and grain ETFs showing gains of over 3% [6][7] - Gold-related ETFs have started a new upward trend, with several ETFs gaining over 3.2%, highlighting their safe-haven appeal amid year-end market conditions [6][7] Group 3 - The communication ETF led the market with a 96.11% increase over the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting strong momentum in the AI era [9] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector was a major winner, with various ETFs in this category rising between 85.22% and 87.42% [9] - Resource sectors also performed well, with mining ETFs up by 82.32% and non-ferrous metal ETFs up by 76.83% due to rising global inflation expectations [9] Group 4 - In November, the Nikkei 225 ETF fell by 9.39%, and the fintech sector faced a collective pullback, indicating pressure on traditional consumption and energy sectors [9][10] - The cautious sentiment among investors is reflected in the net inflows to safer assets like short-term bond ETFs and gold ETFs, which saw significant capital inflows [10][11] - The Hong Kong technology sector ETFs attracted substantial net inflows, indicating strong market confidence in this area [10][11]

2025 年 11 月 30 日 行业研究 地缘缓和预期下油价低位震荡，关注 OPEC+产量政策 ——石油化工行业周报第 430 期（20251124—20251130） 要点 地缘冲突缓和预期走强，本周油价低位震荡。本周俄乌和平谈判重启，地缘 冲突缓和预期驱动油价振荡加剧，但俄乌双方在核心问题的谈判尚未取得进 展，且 OPEC+增产幅度有望放缓，使得本周油价整体呈低位震荡态势。截至 11 月 28 日，布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 62.32、58.48 美元/桶，较上周收盘 分别-0.3%、+0.9%。 俄乌谈判核心问题仍存分歧，地缘风险有望持续支撑油价。本周美国与乌克 兰代表在日内瓦举行谈判，美国宣布在达成和平协议方面取得巨大进展，使得 市场对俄乌实现和平预期走强，原油的地缘政治溢价下跌。但是，美乌谈判代 表未透露涉及俄乌重大分歧的具体解决方案，包括领土、乌克兰军队规模、乌 克兰加入北约等众多核心问题。截至本周五，谈判尚未取得任何成果。今年以 来美国数次试图调停俄乌冲突，但我们认为目前美、俄、乌、欧四方就俄乌冲 突的核心问题达成一致的可能性较低，俄乌冲突仍存长期化趋势。此外，委内 瑞拉局势紧张程度不断升 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high levels of market activity and potential for price increases [12][14][36]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton on LME, with a notable decrease in copper inventory across major regions, indicating a tightening supply [12][21]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton on LME, with a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in production rates, suggesting a recovering demand [13][18]. - Gold prices surged by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and increased holdings in gold ETFs, reflecting strong market sentiment [14][30]. - The rare earth sector shows a bullish trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 3.43%, supported by tightening supply and favorable export conditions [37][36]. - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, bolstered by the suspension of export controls by the Ministry of Commerce, enhancing market confidence [38]. - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and effective measures against smuggling in Indonesia [39]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton, with a decrease in national copper inventory to 173,500 tons, reflecting a supply contraction [12][21]. - The copper processing fee index dropped to -$42.75 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [12]. - The copper wire and cable industry shows a mixed performance, with operating rates at 66.89%, reflecting a decline in year-on-year demand [12][21]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton, with domestic inventory decreasing to 596,000 tons [13][18]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing increased by 0.3% to 62.3%, indicating a recovery in demand [13][18]. - The cost of prebaked anodes is expected to rise by over 400 yuan per ton, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and increased ETF holdings [14][30]. - The market remains strong, with expectations for continued price support unless a liquidity crisis occurs [14]. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.43%, with expectations of supply tightening due to policy changes and raw material shortages [37]. - The export volume of magnetic materials increased by 16% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [37]. Antimony - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, supported by the suspension of export controls, which boosted market confidence [38]. - Global supply is expected to decline due to reduced production from overseas mines, maintaining upward price pressure [38]. Tin - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, driven by supply constraints from geopolitical tensions in Africa and effective anti-smuggling measures in Indonesia [39]. - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations for sustained demand growth [39]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 4.04% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight increase [63]. - The demand for lithium remains strong, driven by growth in the battery and energy storage markets [63]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.6% to 403,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to support future price increases [64]. - The market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, indicating a need for demand recovery [64].

Group 1 - The ETF market experienced a significant capital migration in November, with strong rebounds in the biotechnology sector, as evidenced by the S&P Biotechnology ETF rising by 14.03% and the Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF increasing by 12.83% [1] - Commodity-related ETFs also performed well, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF up by 4.30%, the Agriculture ETF rising by 3.63%, and the Soybean Meal ETF increasing by 3.37%, reflecting ongoing concerns about geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1] - The gold sector began a new upward trend after a period of adjustment, with multiple gold-related ETFs, including the Shanghai Gold ETF and Gold ETF, showing gains exceeding 3.2%, highlighting their safe-haven attributes as year-end approaches [2] Group 2 - The November performance of ETFs revealed a cautious investor sentiment, with significant inflows into safer assets such as the Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF, which saw a net inflow of 11.4 billion yuan, and the Short-term Bond ETF with a net inflow of 7 billion yuan [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETFs attracted substantial capital, with net inflows of 5.168 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF and 4.651 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF, indicating recognition of the valuation advantages in the Hong Kong tech sector [3] - Conversely, there were notable outflows from several ETFs, including the CSI 300 ETF with a net outflow of 2.839 billion yuan, the Coal ETF with a net outflow of 2.522 billion yuan, and the SSE 50 ETF with a net outflow of 2.181 billion yuan [4]

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Here’s what you need to know: Gold climbed nearly $150/oz on the week, finishing near $4,225/oz and closing in on October’s all-time high at $4,250/oz. Expectations for continued Fed rate cuts, with high odds of another m ...

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The Shanghai gold futures price is currently at 953.92 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.76% [1] - The opening price for the day was 947.02 CNY per gram, with a high of 955.50 CNY and a low of 945.74 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - President Putin indicated that Trump's peace proposal could serve as a basis for a future agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, expressing an openness to negotiations [2] - The Kremlin confirmed that U.S. envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the Federal Reserve's December rate cut expectations causing market volatility [3] - The international gold price closed at 4157.27 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.12%, with expectations for gold prices to potentially break previous resistance and rise above 4200 USD [3] - Increased central bank purchases of gold and a rise in investors' allocation to precious metals are expected to drive a continuation of the gold bull market in the medium to long term, while short-term focus should be on U.S. economic data [3]