Economic Overview - In May, China's economy showed overall stability with several indicators improving, indicating the growth of new economic drivers and a sustained high-quality development trend [1][2] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year in May, with an acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [3] Consumption Trends - The growth in retail sales was significantly supported by the "old-for-new" policy, which led to substantial increases in sales of home appliances and communication equipment, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [5] - The "6·18" online shopping promotion, starting from May 13, further accelerated online retail sales, which grew by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [5][6] - Holiday consumption showed positive trends, with domestic tourism increasing by 6.4% during the "May Day" holiday, and restaurant income growing by 5.9% in May [6][7] Industrial Development - The new economic momentum is also reflected in the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the industrial sector, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing growing by 8.6% year-on-year [8][9] - Key industries such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with respective increases of 11.6% and 10.2% [8] - The production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries surged by 31.7% and 52.5%, respectively, indicating a strong shift towards green production [8]

Group 1 - The macro policies have been effective in enhancing market vitality and improving corporate profitability and expectations [2] - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - In April alone, profits grew by 3%, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2 - In May, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture saw year-on-year growth between 25.6% and 53%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1] - The production of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding, and boiler manufacturing saw significant year-on-year increases of 28.6%, 12.8%, and 11.8% respectively in May [1]

Economic Overview - In May, the overall economy maintained stable operation, with the macro policy effects such as the "old-for-new" consumption policy continuing to be released, and the export sector showing resilience [1][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [1][2] Consumption and Retail - The service retail sales from January to May grew by 5.2%, which is a slight acceleration compared to the previous four months, indicating a strong impact from holiday consumption [1][2] - The "618" e-commerce promotion and the "old-for-new" policy contributed to a further acceleration in consumer goods consumption in June [6] Investment and Export - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May grew by 3.7%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period, with real estate investment dragging down the overall figure [2][4] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year from January to May, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] - Manufacturing investment increased by 8.5% and infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% during the same period [2] Trade Performance - In May, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.4%, reflecting the resilience of exports despite a challenging external trade environment [2][3] - Cumulatively, from January to May, exports increased by 6%, while imports fell by 4.9%, indicating a strong export performance driven by "export rush" behaviors [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in May increased by 5.8% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 5.5% [4][5] - The service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year in May, boosted by holiday consumption and a recovery in exports to the U.S. [4] Future Outlook - The chief economist at CITIC Securities highlighted that the "old-for-new" policy has supported the demand for major consumer goods, and further support for rural and lower-tier markets could enhance domestic consumption [6] - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation and promote high-quality economic development [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a stable performance in China's economy, with consumer spending showing significant growth due to macro policies and resilient export sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Spending - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.3 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, the highest monthly growth rate this year [2]. - The growth in consumer spending is attributed to the "May Day" and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, as well as promotional events like "618" and the implementation of the old-for-new policy [2][7]. Group 2: Investment and Exports - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, a decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period, with real estate investment down by 10.7% [3]. - Exports remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in May, despite a 3.4% decline in imports, reflecting a challenging external trade environment [3][4]. Group 3: Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, maintaining a growth rate above 5.5% [4][6]. - The production of high-tech products, such as smart drones and industrial robots, saw significant increases, with smart drone manufacturing up by 85.9% and industrial robot production doubling [6]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the resilience and potential of China's economy, highlighting the need for proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation and promote high-quality development [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The economic resilience and potential of China continue to manifest, with stable economic operation and sustained growth in foreign trade despite external pressures [1][10]. Economic Performance - In May, China's total import and export value increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% [10]. - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since last year [1][9]. Industrial Growth - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, supported by policy measures and active adjustments by enterprises [4][8]. - The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production [8]. Service Sector Expansion - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]. - Retail and accommodation sectors showed significant growth, with production indices increasing by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The growth of retail sales accelerated, particularly in the service sector, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in May, up by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - Policies promoting consumption, such as trade-in programs and online sales promotions, contributed to the increase in market sales [8]. Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The high-tech manufacturing industry saw an added value growth of 8.6%, while the digital product manufacturing industry grew by 9.1%, both outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [9][12]. - The production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries increased by 31.7% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating robust growth in emerging industries [9]. Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate in May was 5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed an expanded increase, indicating stable market supply and demand [8]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies have been effective in stabilizing the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [11][12]. - The policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to respond to changing circumstances, ensuring continued support for economic stability [12].

Economic Overview - China's macroeconomic policies are well-prepared to respond dynamically to changing circumstances, ensuring stable economic operation [1][11] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [1][3] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, showing a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from April [1][6] Consumption Growth - The increase in consumer spending is supported by several factors, including the "old-for-new" policy, promotional events like "6·18", and strong holiday consumption [3][4] - Retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales increase [4] - The restaurant sector experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 5.9% in May, reflecting improved consumer confidence [4][6] Industrial Production - Industrial production remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in May, supported by macroeconomic policies and industrial upgrades [6][8] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors outperformed the overall industrial growth, with increases of 9% and 8.6% respectively [6][8] - High-tech product output, such as 3D printing equipment and integrated circuits, saw substantial growth, with increases of 40% and 11.5% respectively [6] Investment Trends - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year [10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, contrasting with a decline of 10.7% in real estate development investment [10] - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, indicating a strong push for effective investment [10] Future Outlook - The economic environment remains complex, with external uncertainties and domestic challenges persisting, necessitating continued policy support [1][8] - The focus will be on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness, improving the consumption environment, and promoting high-quality development [4][11] - The manufacturing investment growth rate is expected to gradually decline to around 8% by 2025, influenced by external pressures and domestic productivity improvements [10]

Group 1 - In May, China's economy showed overall stability and improvement in some indicators, reflecting strong resilience and vitality [1] - The macroeconomic policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to stabilize economic operations [2] - The decline in China's goods imports is influenced by multiple factors, including global trade uncertainties and reduced international economic growth [3] Group 2 - The real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, supported by the implementation of various stabilizing policies [5] - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5% in May, with a continuous decline in youth unemployment over the past three months, indicating a stable employment situation [6]

二是政策发力显效，行稳致远有保障。今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加大逆周期调 节，加快推进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，有力增强了消费活力，带动了生产增长，促进了转型升级，充 分展现了宏观政策对稳定经济运行的重要作用。从下阶段情况看，我国政策工具箱储备充足，宏观政策 留有后手，可以根据形势变化动态调整、积极应对，将继续为经济稳定运行保驾护航。 三是创新动能壮大，向好发展有支撑。我国坚持高质量发展不动摇，加快培育壮大新质生产力，科技创 新和产业创新加快融合，新兴产业发展态势较好，传统产业焕新升级，数字经济、绿色经济发展方兴未 艾，不断成长的新动能将为经济发展提供源源不断的新动力。1-5月份，规模以上数字产品制造业增加 值同比增长9.9%，1-4月份规模以上专精特新"小巨人"服务业企业营业收入增长18.4%，充分体现了新动 能的强大活力。 付凌晖表示，还要看到，近期中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，就落实两国元首6月5日重要通话共识和巩固 日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展，有利于推动中美 经贸关系稳定和可持续发展，也将为世界经济注入更多稳定性和确定性。 付凌晖指出，当然 ...

国家统计局：我国政策工具箱的储备充足 宏观政策留有后手 金十数据6月16日讯，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在国新办发布会上表示，下阶段，我国政策工具箱 的储备充足，宏观政策留有后手，可以根据形势变化动态调整、积极应对，将继续为经济的稳定运行保 驾护航。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook remains optimistic despite external uncertainties, with the belief that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is not yet over [1][2] - Investors' understanding of the economic and international situation is comprehensive, and new technologies and consumer opportunities are emerging, indicating a structural positive shift [1][2] - The reduction in risk-free interest rates has lowered the opportunity cost of investing in stocks, marking a historical turning point for long-term and retail investors [1][3] Group 2: Economic and Investment Trends - Economic expectations are undergoing a positive transformation, which is not a short-term phenomenon, with the stock market's expectations reflecting a range rather than a single point [2] - The focus on supply-side innovation is driving demand creation, with capital expenditure in both new and old economies expected to recover and enter a phase of differentiated growth by 2025 [2][3] Group 3: Currency and Asset Valuation - The stability of the RMB is expected to play a significant role in the revaluation of Chinese assets, as the global economic order is being reshaped and the dollar's credibility is declining [3] - The decline in discount rates is leading to a market environment where emerging technologies are the main focus, with financial sectors and high-dividend stocks benefiting from the lower risk-free rates [3] Group 4: Sector Recommendations - Recommendations include financial and high-dividend sectors such as banks, brokers, and highway operators, which are expected to benefit from the domestic decline in risk-free rates [3] - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology, are highlighted as key growth areas due to intensified competition between China and the US [3] - The cyclical consumption sector is also expected to see a revival, with a focus on domestic supply-demand tightness in cyclical products and new consumption driven by supply [3] Group 5: AI and Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment and industry trends are reminiscent of the 2012-2014 period, where technology drove market performance, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [5][6] - The rapid development of AI applications is expected to accelerate commercialization, with Chinese companies poised to benefit significantly from this trend [6][7] - Hong Kong's tech sector, particularly in software applications, is expected to outperform due to its higher market capitalization in this area compared to A-shares [7]